Analysis from chief economists at the U.S. Department of Commerce and Visa on the latest GDP estimates.

1. Highlights from the
Q4 GDP Report
Wayne Best
Chief Economist
Visa Inc.
January 29, 2016
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick
Chief Economist
U.S. Department of Commerce
1

2. The U.S. Economy Grew 0.7 Percent in 2015Q4
2
3.3
2.7
1.8
-0.3
-2.8
2.5
1.6
2.2
1.5
2.4 2.4
0.6
3.9
2.0
0.7
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Percent Change
Source: BEA.Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterlypercent change from prior quarter at annual rate.

3. Q4 GDP In Detail
• Real GDP grew by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last year
• This compares with a 2.0% growth rate in the prior quarter
• For all of 2015, real GDP advanced 2.4%, matching the 2014 pace of
growth
• Looking across the economy, consumer spending growth of 2.2%
was a bright spot
• Housing construction grew by over 8% in the fourth quarter,
another strong gain
• In contrast, declines in business investment and exports served as
drags on economic performance late last year
• The economic expansion has lasted 7 ½ years and average annual
growth since it began in mid-2009 has been 2.1%
3

4. Contributions to GDP Growth
4

5. Fundamentals are Supporting Consumer Spending
5
3.5
3.0
2.2
-0.3
-1.6
1.9
2.3
1.5
1.7
2.7
3.1
1.8
3.6
3.0
2.2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Percent Change
Source: BEA.Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterlypercent change from prior quarter at annual rate.

6. Business Investment Fell by 1.8% in Q4
6
7.0 7.1
5.9
-0.7
-15.6
2.5
7.7
9.0
3.0
6.2
2.9
1.6
4.1
2.6
-1.8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Real Business Fixed Investment
Percent Change
Source: BEA.Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterlypercent change from prior quarter at annual rate.

7. Non-residential Investment Trends are Mixed
7
1.6
8.1
-1.5
2013 2014 2015
Construction
Percent Change
3.2
5.8
3.1
2013 2014 2015
Equipment
Percent Change
3.8
5.2
5.8
2013 2014 2015
IP Products
Percent Change

8. Housing Activity has Stepped Up this Year
8
6.6
-7.6
-18.8
-24.0
-21.2
-2.5
0.5
13.5
9.5
1.8
8.7 10.1 9.3 8.2 8.1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Real Residential Investment
Percent Change
Source: BEA.Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterlypercent change from prior quarter at annual rate.

9. Weak Export Demand is Weighing on Growth
9
6.3
9.0 9.3
5.7
-8.8
11.9
6.9
3.4 2.8 3.4
1.1
-6.0
5.1
0.7
-2.5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Exports
Percent Change
Source: BEA.Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterlypercent change from prior quarter at annual rate.

10. The State of the Consumer
Chief Economist
Business & Economic Insights
Visa Performance Solutions
Wayne Best

11. Questions
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