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2018 q2 gdp webinar with paul bishop

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2018 q2 gdp webinar with paul bishop

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2018 q2 gdp webinar with paul bishop

  1. 1. THE LATEST ECONOMIC TRENDS Highlights from 2018 Q2 GDP Estimates July 27, 2018
  2. 2. THE U.S. ECONOMY GREW 4.1% IN Q2 2018 > 2 1.8 -0.3 -2.8 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.2 4.1 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 Real GDP percent change
  3. 3. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GDP GROWTH > 3 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 Real GDP 2.8 2.3 2.2 4.1 Contribution to change in real GDP Personal consumption expenditures 2.2 3.9 0.5 4.0 Non-residential investment 3.4 4.8 11.5 7.3 Construction -5.7 1.3 13.9 13.3 Equipment 9.8 9.9 8.5 3.9 IP products 1.7 0.7 14.1 8.2 Residential investment -0.5 11.1 -3.4 -1.1 Government -1.0 2.4 1.5 2.1 Net exports 0.7 -5.2 0.6 8.8
  4. 4. CONSUMER SPENDING > 4 2.2 -0.2 -1.6 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 3.9 0.5 4.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 Real personal consumption expenditures percent change
  5. 5. BUSINESS INVESTMENT GREW BY 7.3% IN Q2 > 5 6.9 0.6 -14.5 4.5 8.7 9.5 4.1 6.9 1.8 0.5 5.3 3.4 4.8 11.5 7.3 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 Real business fixed investment percent change
  6. 6. NON-RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT TRENDS -2.8 > 6 -5.7 1.3 13.9 13.3 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 Construction Percent change 9.8 9.9 8.5 3.9 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 Equipment Percent change 1.7 0.7 14.1 8.2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 IP Products Percent change
  7. 7. HOUSING ACTIVITY > 7 -18.7 -24.2 -21.7 -3.1 -0.1 13.0 12.4 3.9 10.1 6.5 3.3 -0.5 11.1 -3.4 -1.1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 Real residential investment Percent Change
  8. 8. SUPPLY OF HOMES FOR SALE U.S. Months Supply of Existing Homes 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 -Q22017 -Q32017 -Q42018 -Q12018 -Q2 months, EOP Source: National Association of REALTORS®
  9. 9. SINGLE FAMILY CONSTRUCTION U.S. Single Family Starts 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 -Q2 2017 -Q3 2017 -Q4 2018 -Q1 2018 -Q2 Source: Census Bureau SAAR
  10. 10. EXISTING HOME SALES U.S. Existing Home Sales 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 -Q2 2017 -Q3 2017 -Q4 2018 -Q1 2018 -Q2 SAAR Source: National Association of REALTORS®
  11. 11. EXISTING HOME PRICES U.S. Existing Home Price Change -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 -Q2 2017 -Q3 2017 -Q4 2018 -Q1 2018 -Q2 Source: National Association of REALTORS® percent change – year over year
  12. 12. EXPORTS > 12 8.7 5.7 -8.4 12.1 7.1 3.4 3.6 4.3 0.6 -0.1 3.0 3.5 6.6 3.6 9.3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q32017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 Exports Percent Change
  13. 13. INFLATION > 13 2.2 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q32017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent Change (excluding food and energy)
  14. 14. QUESTIONS Press 1 on your phone, or Email info@businessfwd.org

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