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The strong fundamentals of the PeruvianEconomyJulio VelardeGovernorCentral Bank of PeruApril 2012
1. Long-run trends2. Recent economic developments andprospects3. Monetary Policy Framework4. Closing remarksAgenda2
Peru was the sixth-fastest growing economy in the past 11 years34.24.24.34.34.64.64.74.74.74.84.95.35.45.45.65.87.58.18.81...
5.25.93.6-1.04.05.750 60 70 80 90 00GDP growth: 1951-2010(Average percent change)GDP grew 5,7% in the last decade, the fas...
Average inflation rate in the last decade was 2,3%, thelowest rate since the 40’s51.015.1 7.4 9.532.6369.524.62.330 40 50 ...
68136100020406080100120140160195119531955195719591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951...
15.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.5 16.418.221.517.7 19.2 19.6 19.83.12.8 2.8 2.8 2.93.13.44.35.25.9 4.6 5.818.617.6 17.8 17.9 18.419...
8.24.43.9 3.93.3 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.62.21.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3China(1)India(4)SouthKorea(7)Taiwanprov....
Employment has been growing strongly-1.90.01.72.74.57.28.3 8.31.34.25.4-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.02001 2002 2003 2004 2005...
58.555.649.142.437.333.530.82530354045505560654,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Pe...
-5.6 -5.9 -6.3-4.7-0.9 -0.41981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2011Current Account of the Balance of Pa...
Sound fiscal policies have improved public finances inPeru-7.8-9.8-3.2-1.7 -1.61.21981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 ...
Debt burden is sustainable: public net debt expected to be6,1% of GDP in 2012Public Debt Average Maturity(years)Year 2011D...
The Central Bank of Peru has accumulated international reserves as aprecautionary measure6.68.510.2 9.2 8.4 8.2 8.6 9.6 10...
Financial dollarization has been decreasing and nearly halved sincethe beginning of the decade73 7477 7982 80 79 777471676...
1. Long-run trends2. Recent economic developments andprospects3. Monetary Policy Framework4. Closing remarksAgenda16
Consumer expectations continued in the optimistic field6158566559545359 59645859 59 595668596156303540455055606570Sep-10Oc...
Investor expectations are in the optimistic field70 71 706866 65 6546494751 5158 58 5856 57606420304050607080Sep-10Oct-10N...
Surveys: Growth would be around 5,5% 2012-20135.5 5.5 5.8Financial Entities Economic Analysts Non-Financial FirmsExpectati...
5.74.94.54.3 4.2 4.2 4.13.7 3.63.3PeruColombiaEcuadorChileUruguayVenezuelaBoliviaParaguayArgentinaBrasilGDP Growth: 2012So...
Source: Consensus Forecast (March 2012) and BCRP.28.59.86.75.4 5.3 5.1 5.03.4 3.32.3VenezuelaArgentinaUruguayBrasilParagua...
0.25.04.05.06.87.78.99.80.98.86.95.76.32001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*Gross Domestic Pr...
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * 2013*GDP 9,8 0,9 8,8 6,9 5,7 6,3Domestic demand 12,3 -2,8 13,1 7,2 5,9 6,5Private consumption 8...
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * 2013*GDP 9,8 0,9 8,8 6,9 5,7 6,3Agriculture and livestock 7,2 2,3 4,3 3,8 4,0 4,3Fishing 6,3 -7...
Source: COESElectricity production continues to show solid growth…10.910.19.09.5 9.48.5 8.39.68.88.37.78.15.67.96.7Jan.201...
1/ Seasonally adjusted*Preliminary…similarly in cement consumption13.4-3.3-4.8-12.3-2.9 -2.5 -1.3 -2.38.119.524.418.012.0 ...
25.340.29.335.739.634.321.519.56.125.39.86.115.92.236.1Jan.2011Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan.2012Feb Mar...
17 171921171821 22262116 16 1513Jan.2011Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan.2012FebSales of supermarkets(YoY g...
* Forecast3,11,4-4,20,2-1.7 -1.3 -1.5 -1.84.59.17.65.77.96.44.9 5.12006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*Current Accoun...
30…supported by trade surplusUS$ Billions 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*Exports 23,8 28,1 31,0 27,0 35,6 46,3 4...
31Fiscal surplus of 1,1% of GDP is expected in 20123,11,4-4,20,22.4-1.3-0.31.91.11.42004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201...
1. Long run trends2. Recent economic developments andprospects3. Monetary Policy Framework4. Closing remarksAgenda32
33The Peruvian monetary policy framework includes besides the usualfeatures of an inflation targeting scheme a set of tool...
Source: BCRP.1.254.251.02.03.04.05.06.07.0Mar-06May-06Jul-06Sep-06Nov-06Jan-07Mar-07May-07Jul-07Sep-07Nov-07Jan-08Mar-08Ma...
25%001020304050607080Jan-07Jun-07Nov-07Apr-08Sep-08Feb-09Jul-09Dec-09May-10Oct-10Mar-11Aug-11Jan-12Reserve requirement in ...
19.016.718.0-5515253545552001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Feb.12Credit to the Private Sector(12 mont...
There is still room for capital market development67.951.432.2 30.917.8Chile Brazil Colombia Peru MexicoBank credit to the...
Mortgage credit is low compared to other countries inLatin America18.011.05.04.03.0Chile Mexico Colombia Brazil PeruMortga...
Non-performing loans rate has been less than 2% in thepast five years391.541.03.05.07.09.011.013.02000 2001 2002 2003 2004...
FOREX operations aim to moderate exchange rate volatility ratherthan simply intervine to fix any specific trend.40-4,000-3...
Source: BCRP65707580859095100105Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12...
As of March, inflation is transitorily above the targetrange-11357mar/05 mar/06 mar/07 mar/08 mar/09 mar/10 mar/11 mar/12I...
1. Long run trends2. Recent economic developments andprospects3. Monetary Policy Framework4. Closing remarksAgenda43
Closing remarks44
The strong fundamentals of the PeruvianEconomyJulio VelardeGovernorCentral Bank of PeruApril 2012
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Julio Velarde - inPERU

  1. 1. The strong fundamentals of the PeruvianEconomyJulio VelardeGovernorCentral Bank of PeruApril 2012
  2. 2. 1. Long-run trends2. Recent economic developments andprospects3. Monetary Policy Framework4. Closing remarksAgenda2
  3. 3. Peru was the sixth-fastest growing economy in the past 11 years34.24.24.34.34.64.64.74.74.74.84.95.35.45.45.65.87.58.18.810.413.5ColombiaHong Kong SARThailandUkrainePakistanEgyptArgentinaMalaysiaRussiaPhilippinesIslamic Republic of IranIndonesiaUnited Arab EmiratesKuwaitSingaporePeruIndiaKazakhstanNigeriaChinaQatarReal GDP Growth(Average % change 2001-2011)
  4. 4. 5.25.93.6-1.04.05.750 60 70 80 90 00GDP growth: 1951-2010(Average percent change)GDP grew 5,7% in the last decade, the fastest ratesince the 70’s4
  5. 5. Average inflation rate in the last decade was 2,3%, thelowest rate since the 40’s51.015.1 7.4 9.532.6369.524.62.330 40 50 60 70 80 90 00Inflation: 1930-2010(Average percent change)
  6. 6. 681361000204060801001201401601951195319551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011(1975 = 100)Per capita GDP didnot recover its 1975level until 2006Avg.Growth 1950 – 1975:2,7%Avg. Growth 1976 – 1992:-2,4%Avg. Growth 1993 – 2011:3,8%Per Capita GDP6
  7. 7. 15.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.5 16.418.221.517.7 19.2 19.6 19.83.12.8 2.8 2.8 2.93.13.44.35.25.9 4.6 5.818.617.6 17.8 17.9 18.419.521.525.922.925.124.125.62001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*Gross Fixed Investment 2001-2012(% GDP)Private Investment Public InvestmentAverage investment 2010-2012 is 25% of GDP7*Forecast
  8. 8. 8.24.43.9 3.93.3 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.62.21.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3China(1)India(4)SouthKorea(7)Taiwanprov.ofChina(8)Malaysia(18)Thailand(20)Indonesia(22)HongKongSAR(23)Peru(24)Chile(25)Singapur(29)Argentina(36)UnitedStates(53)Uruguay(54)Bolivia(66)Germany(73)Brazil(80)Colombia(85)Japan(88)Mexico(89)Ecuador(98)Venezuela(102)Labor Productivity Growth *(Average 1990-2011)Source: The Conference Board, Jan. 2012.* Number in parentheses indicates worldwide positionPeru among countries with the highest labor productivityin Latin America8
  9. 9. Employment has been growing strongly-1.90.01.72.74.57.28.3 8.31.34.25.4-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Urban Employment 1/(% Change)1/ Enterprises with more than 10 employeesSource: Ministerio de Trabajo y Promoción del Empleo.During 2003-2011 average GDP growth was 6,5% while average urbanemployment was 4,8%9
  10. 10. 58.555.649.142.437.333.530.82530354045505560654,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Per capita GDP and povertyPer capita GDP (left axis) Poverty (right axis)PercentNuevos Soles1994Poverty decreased as a consequence of GDP growth10
  11. 11. -5.6 -5.9 -6.3-4.7-0.9 -0.41981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2011Current Account of the Balance of Payments: 1981-2011(% of GDP)Strong external position reflects substantial long-term privatecapital inflows1.50.6 0.46.05.14.16.41981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Private Sector Financing: 1980-2011(% of GDP)Private Sector Financing: 1980-2010(Billions of US$)1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011268 90 109 3 251 2 709 3 225 11 300
  12. 12. Sound fiscal policies have improved public finances inPeru-7.8-9.8-3.2-1.7 -1.61.21981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2011Overall balance of the public sector: 1981-2011(% of GDP)12
  13. 13. Debt burden is sustainable: public net debt expected to be6,1% of GDP in 2012Public Debt Average Maturity(years)Year 2011Domestic debt 14,6Foreign debt 11,6Total 12,7Public Debt 2011*(%GDP)54.541.727.821.79.5Brazil Colombia Mexico Peru Chile* Source: Moodys Statistical Handbook, November 201145.937.721.7 19.937.530.18.2 6.12001 2005 2011 2012*Gross Debt Net DebtPublic Debt(% GDP)13•Forecast
  14. 14. The Central Bank of Peru has accumulated international reserves as aprecautionary measure6.68.510.2 9.2 8.4 8.2 8.6 9.6 10.212.614.117.327.731.233.144.148.856.41995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*Net International Reserves(Billions of US$)•As of April 4, 20122006 2010 2012 *NIR (Millions of US$) 17 275 44 105 56 369NIR / GDP (%) 18,7 28,7 30,9NIR / Short-run debt (times) 2,9 5,2 6,6NIR / Liquidity (%) 81,9 91,0 93,814
  15. 15. Financial dollarization has been decreasing and nearly halved sincethe beginning of the decade73 7477 7982 80 79 7774716760575246 44 441995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Dollarization of credit to the private sector(%) The declining credit dollarizationratio has limited the effect ofexchange rate depreciations ondollar debtors solvency.15
  16. 16. 1. Long-run trends2. Recent economic developments andprospects3. Monetary Policy Framework4. Closing remarksAgenda16
  17. 17. Consumer expectations continued in the optimistic field6158566559545359 59645859 59 595668596156303540455055606570Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Consumer Confidence Index(Economic Household Situation)OptimisticPessimisticSource: Apoyo Consultoría17
  18. 18. Investor expectations are in the optimistic field70 71 706866 65 6546494751 5158 58 5856 57606420304050607080Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Investor Confidence Index(3-month expectations on economic situation)OptimisticPessimisticSource: BCRP18
  19. 19. Surveys: Growth would be around 5,5% 2012-20135.5 5.5 5.8Financial Entities Economic Analysts Non-Financial FirmsExpectations of GDP growth: 2012(%)5.7 6.0 6.0Financial Entities Economic AnalystsNon-Financial FirmsExpectations of GDP growth: 2013(%)Source: Survey on Macroeconomic expectations, BCRP.19
  20. 20. 5.74.94.54.3 4.2 4.2 4.13.7 3.63.3PeruColombiaEcuadorChileUruguayVenezuelaBoliviaParaguayArgentinaBrasilGDP Growth: 2012Source: Consensus Forecast (March 2012) and BCRP.20According to Consensus Forecast, during 2012 Peru would be thefastest growing economy in the region
  21. 21. Source: Consensus Forecast (March 2012) and BCRP.28.59.86.75.4 5.3 5.1 5.03.4 3.32.3VenezuelaArgentinaUruguayBrasilParaguayBoliviaEcuadorColombiaChilePeruInflation rate: 201221With the lowest inflation rate
  22. 22. 0.25.04.05.06.87.78.99.80.98.86.95.76.32001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*Gross Domestic Product(Annual percent change)GDP growth in 2011 reached 6,9%22*Forecast
  23. 23. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * 2013*GDP 9,8 0,9 8,8 6,9 5,7 6,3Domestic demand 12,3 -2,8 13,1 7,2 5,9 6,5Private consumption 8,7 2,4 6,0 6,4 5,8 5,8Public consumption 2,1 16,5 10,0 4,8 5,3 5,1Private investment 25,9 -15,1 22,1 11,7 8,2 8,7Public investment 33,6 21,2 27,3 -17,8 34,3 7,3Exports 8,2 -3,2 1,3 8,8 7,5 7,7Imports 20,1 -18,6 24,0 9,8 8,3 8,3* ForecastOur baseline projection estimates a GDP growth of 5,7% for 2012driven by domestic demand23
  24. 24. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * 2013*GDP 9,8 0,9 8,8 6,9 5,7 6,3Agriculture and livestock 7,2 2,3 4,3 3,8 4,0 4,3Fishing 6,3 -7,9 -16,4 29,7 -4,7 2,8Mining 7,6 0,6 -0,1 -0,2 2,8 10,7Raw materials 7,6 0,0 -2,3 12,3 3,4 6,3Non-Primarymanufacturing8,9 -8,5 16,9 4,4 5,1 6,2Electricity and water 7,8 1,2 7,7 7,4 5,5 5,9Construction 16,5 6,1 17,4 3,4 11,3 7,6Commerce 13,0 -0,4 9,7 8,8 5,9 5,4Other services 9,1 3,1 8,0 8,3 5,8 6,3Non-primary sectors would continue leading thedynamism* Forecast24
  25. 25. Source: COESElectricity production continues to show solid growth…10.910.19.09.5 9.48.5 8.39.68.88.37.78.15.67.96.7Jan.2011Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan.2012Feb MarElectricity Production(YoY growth rate)25
  26. 26. 1/ Seasonally adjusted*Preliminary…similarly in cement consumption13.4-3.3-4.8-12.3-2.9 -2.5 -1.3 -2.38.119.524.418.012.0 12.923.0Jan.2011Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan.2012Feb Mar*Domestic consumption of cement 1/(annualized QoQ growth rate)26
  27. 27. 25.340.29.335.739.634.321.519.56.125.39.86.115.92.236.1Jan.2011Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan.2012Feb Mar*Volume of Capital Good Imports(YoY growth rate)Capital good imports grew at double digits in the firstquarter*Preliminary27
  28. 28. 17 171921171821 22262116 16 1513Jan.2011Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan.2012FebSales of supermarkets(YoY growth rate)Sales of supermarkets and department stores have beengrowing at double digits2319 202417 172622171820171016Jan.2011Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan.2012FebSales of department stores(YoY growth rate)28
  29. 29. * Forecast3,11,4-4,20,2-1.7 -1.3 -1.5 -1.84.59.17.65.77.96.44.9 5.12006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*Current Account Balance and Long-term financing: 2006 - 2013(% of GDP)Current account balance Long-term gross financing (disbursements + foreign direct investment)US$ Millions 2010 2011 2012* 2013*Current account balance -2 625 -2 267 -2 955 -3 935Private long term grossfinancing12 090 11 309 9 837 11 050The current account deficit would remain in sustainablelevels…29
  30. 30. 30…supported by trade surplusUS$ Billions 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*Exports 23,8 28,1 31,0 27,0 35,6 46,3 48,7 53,4Imports 14,8 19,6 28,5 21,0 28,8 37,0 39,6 43,5*Forecast9,08,52,66,06,89,3 7,910.00204060801001201401600246810122006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*1994=100US$billionsTrade Balance and Terms of Trade(US$ billions and index 1994=100)Trade Balance Terms of Trade
  31. 31. 31Fiscal surplus of 1,1% of GDP is expected in 20123,11,4-4,20,22.4-1.3-0.31.91.11.42004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*Overall balance of the public sector: 2004-2013(% of GDP)* Forecast
  32. 32. 1. Long run trends2. Recent economic developments andprospects3. Monetary Policy Framework4. Closing remarksAgenda32
  33. 33. 33The Peruvian monetary policy framework includes besides the usualfeatures of an inflation targeting scheme a set of tools to deal with the risksof financial dollarization.Hybrid Inflation Targeting SchemeInflation TargetingControl ofDollarization RisksNormal Credit/GDP evolution Liquidity Risk• Reserve requirement on foreigncurrency liabilities• Preventive NIR accumulation Exchange Risk (Balance SheetEffect)• Sterilized FOREX Intervention toreduce exchange rate volatilityInflation target : 2% +/- 1%• Operational Target: Overnightinterest rate+33
  34. 34. Source: BCRP.1.254.251.02.03.04.05.06.07.0Mar-06May-06Jul-06Sep-06Nov-06Jan-07Mar-07May-07Jul-07Sep-07Nov-07Jan-08Mar-08May-08Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10Nov-10Jan-11Mar-11May-11Jul-11Sep-11Nov-11Jan-12Mar-12Central Bank Policy Rate(In percentage)The Central Bank has kept its monetary policyrate since May 201134
  35. 35. 25%001020304050607080Jan-07Jun-07Nov-07Apr-08Sep-08Feb-09Jul-09Dec-09May-10Oct-10Mar-11Aug-11Jan-12Reserve requirement in domestic currency(In percentages)%Pre-LehmanPost-LehmanRecovery55%60%001020304050607080Jan-07Jun-07Nov-07Apr-08Sep-08Feb-09Jul-09Dec-09May-10Oct-10Mar-11Aug-11Jan-12Reserve requirement in foreign currency(In percentages)%Pre-LehmanPost-Lehman RecoveryShorttermcreditlinesDepositsThe Central Bank has been using reserve requirements to FOREX banks’liabilities (FX deposits and foreign short-term credit lines))35
  36. 36. 19.016.718.0-5515253545552001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Feb.12Credit to the Private Sector(12 month growth rate)Soles US$ TotalCredit continues showing higher rates of growth36CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTORAnnual % changeDec-10 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12Soles 21,2 20,4 19,6 19,0US $ 20,8 17,3 18,4 16,7Total 21,0 19,0 19,1 18,0
  37. 37. There is still room for capital market development67.951.432.2 30.917.8Chile Brazil Colombia Peru MexicoBank credit to the private sector: Latin America 2011(% of GDP)Source: IMF37
  38. 38. Mortgage credit is low compared to other countries inLatin America18.011.05.04.03.0Chile Mexico Colombia Brazil PeruMortgage credit: Latin America(% of GDP)38Source: Morris (2009), with the exception of Chile and Peru (national sources, 2010)
  39. 39. Non-performing loans rate has been less than 2% in thepast five years391.541.03.05.07.09.011.013.02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Non-performing loans rate of the commercial banks(percentage)
  40. 40. FOREX operations aim to moderate exchange rate volatility ratherthan simply intervine to fix any specific trend.40-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,0002.502.702.903.103.303.503.70FOREXintervention(MillonsofUSD)ExchangeRate(PEN/USD)FOREX intervention and exchange rateFOREX Intervention Exchange RateLehman crisis
  41. 41. Source: BCRP65707580859095100105Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12EXCHANGE RATE INDEX(December 2008=100)Colombian PesoChileanPesoBrazilian RealMexican PesoNuevo solPEN has been very stable41
  42. 42. As of March, inflation is transitorily above the targetrange-11357mar/05 mar/06 mar/07 mar/08 mar/09 mar/10 mar/11 mar/12INFLATION AND INFLATION TARGET(12 MONTH % CHANGE)MaximumMinimumInflationtargetrangeInflation12 month %, MarchInflation: 4,23%CPI ex food and energy: 2,47%CPI ex food andenergy42
  43. 43. 1. Long run trends2. Recent economic developments andprospects3. Monetary Policy Framework4. Closing remarksAgenda43
  44. 44. Closing remarks44
  45. 45. The strong fundamentals of the PeruvianEconomyJulio VelardeGovernorCentral Bank of PeruApril 2012

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