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Sismologia na era da comunicação digital

1. The document discusses sismology in real-time and the information that is available shortly after an earthquake occurs, such as hypocenter location, magnitude, and shakemaps. 2. It also discusses how data from global and regional networks can be used to rapidly estimate earthquake impacts and provide early warnings. 3. Citizen seismology networks are mentioned as a way to collect additional data through surveys and social media posts to further the science of earthquake monitoring and early detection.

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Sismologia na era da comunicação digital Susana Custódio susana@fc.ul.pt ESB, 22/Fev/2018 Bogota, Colombia, M6.2, 2015 Virginia, USA, M5.8, 2011
A nossa Terra ETHZ-HPCSED
Placas litosféricas que se movem NASA
O que é um sismo ISC, 1960 – present
O que é um sismo?
Geração de ondas sísmicas L. Matias, FCUL
[Hayes, Wald, et al.]
Destruição causada por sismos Sichuan, China, M7.9, 2008 Haiti, M7, 2010 Christchurch, New Zealand, M6.3, 2011 Lorca, Espanha, M5.1, 2011
Mega-sismos: Sumatra, 2004, M9.1
Mega-sismos: Sumatra, 2004, M9.1
Perdas humanas e económicas [Roger Bilham, Univ Colorado]
Como reduzir as perdas causadas pelos sismos? REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer) Long-term Hazard Mapping Long-term Forecasting Short-term Forecasting Early Warning ShakeMaps & Rapid Loss Aftershock Forecasting Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours Minutes to Days Earthquake
Estimar os impactos dos sismos Earthquake ferent time scales of the uake process re of by REAL- 1. Fonte 2. Propagação 3. Sítio 4. Vulnerabilidade & Inventário REAKT
Sismologia em tempo real Long-term Hazard Mapping Long-term Forecasting Short-term Forecasting Early Warning ShakeMaps & Rapid Loss Aftershock Forecasting Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours Minutes to Days Earthquake REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)
Sismologia em tempo real com dados sísmicos Kanamori, Nature 1997
Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?
Localização do Hipocentro (< 1 min) SeisComP3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008Guralp
Shakemaps (5-7 min) shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. • ‘Ground Motion Prediction Equations’ (propagação das ondas sísmicas) • Interpolação entre estações
Antecipar o movimento do solo Earthquake ferent time scales of the uake process re of by REAL- 1. Fonte 2. Propagação 3. Sítio 4. Vulnerabilidade & Inventário REAKT
Estimativa de danos PAGER M 7.8, IRAN-PAKISTAN BORDER REGION Origin Time: Tue 2013-04-16 10:44:20 UTC (15:14:20 local) Location: 28.11 o N 62.05 o E Depth: 82 km PAGER Version 6 Estimated Fatalities Estimated Economic Losses Created: 7 hours, 31 minutes after earthquake Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking ESTIMATED POPULATION EXPOSURE (k = x1000) - -* - -* 135k* 2,600k* 1,682k 377k 2k 0 0 ESTIMATED MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY PERCEIVED SHAKING Not felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Violent Extreme POTENTIAL DAMAGE Resistant Structures Vulnerable Structures none none none none none none V. Light Light Light Moderate Moderate Moderate/Heavy Moderate/Heavy Heavy Heavy V. Heavy V. Heavy V. Heavy *Estimated exposure only includes population within the map area. Population Exposure population per ~1 sq. km from Landscan Orange alert level for shaking-related fatalities. Significant casualties are likely and the disaster is potentially widespread. Past events with this alert level have required a regional or national level response. Yellow alert level for economic losses. Some damage is possible. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Structures: Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block and unreinforced brick with timber floor construction. Historical Earthquakes (with MMI levels): Date (UTC) Dist. (km) Mag. Max MMI(#) Shaking Deaths 1989-12-07 389 5.9 VIII(127) 0 1994-02-23 339 6.1 VII(508) 6 2003-12-26 386 6.6 IX(70k) 26k Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses. Selected City Exposure from GeoNames.org MMI City Population VII Khash 70k VI Zahedan 552k VI Iranshahr 131k VI Rudbar 11k
Sismologia em tempo real Long-term Hazard Mapping Long-term Forecasting Short-term Forecasting Early Warning ShakeMaps & Rapid Loss Aftershock Forecasting Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours Minutes to Days Earthquake REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)
Aviso Antecipado
Aviso Antecipado 1. As primeiras ondas (P) têm menor amplitude. 2. As primeiras ondas (P) contêm informação sobre a magnitude dos sismos. Allen et al, 2003
Aviso Antecipado JMA
Aviso Antecipado Allen et al, SRL 2009
REDES DE CIDADÃOS “CITIZEN EMPOWERED SEISMOLOGY” CROWDSOURCING
Did You Feel It? IPMA
Did You Feel It? Wald et al, AG 2012 M 4.2, VA M 4.4, CA
Detecção de sismos por acessos à página do EMSC
Detecção de sismos por acessos à página do EMSC Bossu et al, AG 2012
Detecção de sismos por Tweets Earle et al, AG 2012 “earthquake”, “gempa”, “temblor”, “terremoto”, “sismo”
Redes de MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical Systems) Quake Catcher Network
O que é que vamos ver com redes muito densas? Clayton et al
O que é que vamos ver com redes muito densas? Clayton et al
O que é que vamos ver com redes muito densas? Clayton et al, AG 2012
E em Portugal?
As magnitudes dos sismos Zoback and Gorelick, 2012
Fast Earthquake W arnings Email SMS Radio Fax Telefone Civil Protection W arnings [ operator validation] Delay after Origin Time: 3m40s Delay after 1º record: 3m31s Delay after minimum set of records (10): 2m43s SeiscomP 2.6, SEISAN 8.1 (modified) and in-house software Portugal: Hipocentro e Magnitude Imagem cedida por F. Carrilho, IPMA
Shakemap: Portugal
Sentiu um sismo?
Alguns links… • IPMA: – https://www.ipma.pt/pt/geofisica/sismologia/ • EMSC: – http://www.emsc-csem.org – http://www.citizenseismology.eu/index.html#materials • USGS: – http://earthquake.usgs.gov
Webpages • PAGER: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/pager/
Aviso Antecipado
Aviso Antecipado
Ondas sísmicas
Um século de sismos Ammon et al., SRL 2010
Detecção de sismos por Tweets Earle et al, AG 2012
W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
W-phase Lockwood and Kanamori, G3 2006
W-phase W phase source inversion group http://wphase.unistra.fr/ Onda de longo período (100 – 1000 s)
W-phase Seth and Wyssession, Blackwell Publishing 2003
Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões Source
Source Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
Source Propagação das ondas Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
Source Propagação das ondas Modelado Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
Source Propagação das ondas Modelado Dados Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
Source Propagação das ondas Modelado Dados Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
Redes de MEMS QCN
Mwp Tsuboi, GRL 2000
W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor)
Actualização dos Shakemaps e dos danos previstos Mapas de velocidade de pico cumulativa Terashake
Human and economic losses [Roger Bilham, Univ Colorado] This is how much we borrowed from Troika
Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?
Portugal: Factores de Amplificação Teves-Costa et al, 2010
Determinação de Magnitudes Bobby Motwani
Determinação de Magnitudes SeisComp3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008
Mecanismo Focal: Inversões do Tensor Momento Source Propagação das ondas
Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
Modelos de Fonte Finita Hayes et al., SRL 2011
Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min Falha finita 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min >20 min > 2 hr 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
Aviso Antecipado Project REAKT, FP7
Aviso Antecipado http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33JI929aCS8 Courtesy of Aldo Zollo T0 PRESTo PLUS Eqk Epicenter Vulnerable Site S-Waves Station Alert Level Magnitude Accelerograms P- and S-wavesWindows Depth Courtesy of Aldo Zollo
Aviso Antecipado Aldo Zollo
Did You Feel It? Wald et al, AG 2012 Did You Feel It 1999 – 2011 1.6 million responses USA Hazard Map 10%, PGA, 50 yrs
Wald et al, AG 2012
Did You Feel It? Wald et al, AG 2012
A Terra por dentro Wiley
Energy Released in Earthquakes IRIS
Tectónica de placas USGS J. Renner
How much energy does a mega-earthquake release?
Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? Did You Feel It? Wald et al., AG 2012 3. Porque avança a ciência
Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? 4. Porque contribui para o avanço da ciência. Global CMT
Localização do Hipocentro Guralp STA LTA • Ondas P • Picks automáticos
Localização do Hipocentro • Ondas P • Picks automáticos • Agregação de picks • Actualização automática SeisComP3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008
Shakemaps Input
Shakemaps GMPE (Groud Motion Prediction Earthquakes)
Shakemaps Factores de Amplificação
Shakemaps • Mapas de: – PGA – PGV – PGD – SA – Intensidade shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control.
Mecanismo Focal: Inversões do Tensor Momento Domingues et al., GJI 2012
Detecção de sismos por Tweets Earle et al, AG 2012
Redes de MEMS Micro Electro Mechanical Systems
Sismologia na era da comunicação digital Susana Custódio susana@fc.ul.pt Kanamori,Nature1997 ESB, 23/Fev/2017
Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? 1. Porque reduz os danos materiais e humanos. es ties receive the warnings them with public address Docomo, AU, Softbank) receive them (47%) iders serve earthquake location and hazard estimated shaking in your area Aviso antecipado, Japão Tohoku 2011 Courtesy of Richard Allen, UC Berkeley Shakemap, M4.3 LA Worden et al., BSSA 2010 Shakemap Aviso Antecipado
Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? Bogota, Colombia, M6.2, 2015 Virginia, USA, M5.8, 2011 2. Porque queremos (e esperamos) saber rapidamente o que se está a passar.
Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? Ellsworth and Beroza Science, 1995 3. Porque contribui para o avanço da ciência.
Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real? Ammon et al., SRL 2010
Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min 30 min 1 hr15 min
Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min
Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min Falha finita 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min >20 min > 2 hr 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
Mecanismo Focal: Inversões do Tensor Momento Domingues et al., GJI 2012
Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min Falha finita 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps W-phase 20-50 min >20 min > 2 hr 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr
Aviso Antecipado 1. As primeiras ondas (P) têm menor amplitude. 2. As primeiras ondas (P) contêm informação sobre a magnitude dos sismos. Allen et al, 2003
Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?

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Sismologia na era da comunicação digital

  • 1.
    Sismologia na era dacomunicação digital Susana Custódio susana@fc.ul.pt ESB, 22/Fev/2018 Bogota, Colombia, M6.2, 2015 Virginia, USA, M5.8, 2011
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
    O que éum sismo ISC, 1960 – present
  • 5.
    O que éum sismo?
  • 6.
    Geração de ondassísmicas L. Matias, FCUL
  • 7.
  • 8.
    Destruição causada porsismos Sichuan, China, M7.9, 2008 Haiti, M7, 2010 Christchurch, New Zealand, M6.3, 2011 Lorca, Espanha, M5.1, 2011
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
    Perdas humanas eeconómicas [Roger Bilham, Univ Colorado]
  • 12.
    Como reduzir asperdas causadas pelos sismos? REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer) Long-term Hazard Mapping Long-term Forecasting Short-term Forecasting Early Warning ShakeMaps & Rapid Loss Aftershock Forecasting Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours Minutes to Days Earthquake
  • 13.
    Estimar os impactosdos sismos Earthquake ferent time scales of the uake process re of by REAL- 1. Fonte 2. Propagação 3. Sítio 4. Vulnerabilidade & Inventário REAKT
  • 14.
    Sismologia em temporeal Long-term Hazard Mapping Long-term Forecasting Short-term Forecasting Early Warning ShakeMaps & Rapid Loss Aftershock Forecasting Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours Minutes to Days Earthquake REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)
  • 15.
    Sismologia em temporeal com dados sísmicos Kanamori, Nature 1997
  • 16.
    Qual a informaçãoque temos disponível em tempo real?
  • 17.
    Localização do Hipocentro(< 1 min) SeisComP3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008Guralp
  • 18.
    Shakemaps (5-7 min) showsas a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. • ‘Ground Motion Prediction Equations’ (propagação das ondas sísmicas) • Interpolação entre estações
  • 19.
    Antecipar o movimentodo solo Earthquake ferent time scales of the uake process re of by REAL- 1. Fonte 2. Propagação 3. Sítio 4. Vulnerabilidade & Inventário REAKT
  • 20.
    Estimativa de danos PAGER M7.8, IRAN-PAKISTAN BORDER REGION Origin Time: Tue 2013-04-16 10:44:20 UTC (15:14:20 local) Location: 28.11 o N 62.05 o E Depth: 82 km PAGER Version 6 Estimated Fatalities Estimated Economic Losses Created: 7 hours, 31 minutes after earthquake Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking ESTIMATED POPULATION EXPOSURE (k = x1000) - -* - -* 135k* 2,600k* 1,682k 377k 2k 0 0 ESTIMATED MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY PERCEIVED SHAKING Not felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Violent Extreme POTENTIAL DAMAGE Resistant Structures Vulnerable Structures none none none none none none V. Light Light Light Moderate Moderate Moderate/Heavy Moderate/Heavy Heavy Heavy V. Heavy V. Heavy V. Heavy *Estimated exposure only includes population within the map area. Population Exposure population per ~1 sq. km from Landscan Orange alert level for shaking-related fatalities. Significant casualties are likely and the disaster is potentially widespread. Past events with this alert level have required a regional or national level response. Yellow alert level for economic losses. Some damage is possible. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Structures: Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block and unreinforced brick with timber floor construction. Historical Earthquakes (with MMI levels): Date (UTC) Dist. (km) Mag. Max MMI(#) Shaking Deaths 1989-12-07 389 5.9 VIII(127) 0 1994-02-23 339 6.1 VII(508) 6 2003-12-26 386 6.6 IX(70k) 26k Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses. Selected City Exposure from GeoNames.org MMI City Population VII Khash 70k VI Zahedan 552k VI Iranshahr 131k VI Rudbar 11k
  • 21.
    Sismologia em temporeal Long-term Hazard Mapping Long-term Forecasting Short-term Forecasting Early Warning ShakeMaps & Rapid Loss Aftershock Forecasting Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours Minutes to Days Earthquake REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)
  • 22.
  • 23.
    Aviso Antecipado 1. As primeirasondas (P) têm menor amplitude. 2. As primeiras ondas (P) contêm informação sobre a magnitude dos sismos. Allen et al, 2003
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
    REDES DE CIDADÃOS “CITIZENEMPOWERED SEISMOLOGY” CROWDSOURCING
  • 27.
    Did You FeelIt? IPMA
  • 28.
    Did You FeelIt? Wald et al, AG 2012 M 4.2, VA M 4.4, CA
  • 29.
    Detecção de sismospor acessos à página do EMSC
  • 30.
    Detecção de sismospor acessos à página do EMSC Bossu et al, AG 2012
  • 31.
    Detecção de sismospor Tweets Earle et al, AG 2012 “earthquake”, “gempa”, “temblor”, “terremoto”, “sismo”
  • 32.
    Redes de MEMS(Micro Electro Mechanical Systems) Quake Catcher Network
  • 33.
    O que éque vamos ver com redes muito densas? Clayton et al
  • 34.
    O que éque vamos ver com redes muito densas? Clayton et al
  • 35.
    O que éque vamos ver com redes muito densas? Clayton et al, AG 2012
  • 39.
  • 40.
    As magnitudes dossismos Zoback and Gorelick, 2012
  • 41.
    Fast Earthquake Warnings Email SMS Radio Fax Telefone Civil Protection W arnings [ operator validation] Delay after Origin Time: 3m40s Delay after 1º record: 3m31s Delay after minimum set of records (10): 2m43s SeiscomP 2.6, SEISAN 8.1 (modified) and in-house software Portugal: Hipocentro e Magnitude Imagem cedida por F. Carrilho, IPMA
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
    Alguns links… • IPMA: –https://www.ipma.pt/pt/geofisica/sismologia/ • EMSC: – http://www.emsc-csem.org – http://www.citizenseismology.eu/index.html#materials • USGS: – http://earthquake.usgs.gov
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
    Um século desismos Ammon et al., SRL 2010
  • 50.
    Detecção de sismospor Tweets Earle et al, AG 2012
  • 51.
    W phase: CMT(Centroid Moment Tensor) Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
  • 52.
  • 53.
    W-phase W phase sourceinversion group http://wphase.unistra.fr/ Onda de longo período (100 – 1000 s)
  • 54.
  • 55.
    Modelação de FontesSísmicas: Inversões Source
  • 56.
    Source Modelação de FontesSísmicas: Inversões
  • 57.
    Source Propagação das ondas Modelaçãode Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61.
    W phase: CMT(Centroid Moment Tensor) Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
  • 62.
    W phase: CMT(Centroid Moment Tensor) Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
    W phase: CMT(Centroid Moment Tensor)
  • 66.
    Actualização dos Shakemapse dos danos previstos Mapas de velocidade de pico cumulativa Terashake
  • 67.
    Human and economiclosses [Roger Bilham, Univ Colorado] This is how much we borrowed from Troika
  • 68.
    Qual a informaçãoque temos disponível em tempo real?
  • 69.
    Portugal: Factores deAmplificação Teves-Costa et al, 2010
  • 70.
  • 71.
    Determinação de Magnitudes SeisComp3 Hankaet al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008
  • 72.
    Mecanismo Focal: Inversões doTensor Momento Source Propagação das ondas
  • 73.
    Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Estimativade danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  • 74.
    Modelos de FonteFinita Hayes et al., SRL 2011
  • 75.
    Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais MecanismoFocal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min Falha finita 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min >20 min > 2 hr 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  • 76.
  • 77.
    Aviso Antecipado http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33JI929aCS8 Courtesy ofAldo Zollo T0 PRESTo PLUS Eqk Epicenter Vulnerable Site S-Waves Station Alert Level Magnitude Accelerograms P- and S-wavesWindows Depth Courtesy of Aldo Zollo
  • 78.
  • 79.
    Did You FeelIt? Wald et al, AG 2012 Did You Feel It 1999 – 2011 1.6 million responses USA Hazard Map 10%, PGA, 50 yrs
  • 80.
    Wald et al,AG 2012
  • 81.
    Did You FeelIt? Wald et al, AG 2012
  • 82.
    A Terra pordentro Wiley
  • 83.
    Energy Released inEarthquakes IRIS
  • 84.
  • 85.
    How much energy doesa mega-earthquake release?
  • 86.
    Porquê fazer sismologiaem tempo real? Did You Feel It? Wald et al., AG 2012 3. Porque avança a ciência
  • 87.
    Porquê fazer sismologiaem tempo real? 4. Porque contribui para o avanço da ciência. Global CMT
  • 88.
    Localização do Hipocentro Guralp STA LTA •Ondas P • Picks automáticos
  • 89.
    Localização do Hipocentro •Ondas P • Picks automáticos • Agregação de picks • Actualização automática SeisComP3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008
  • 90.
  • 91.
  • 92.
  • 93.
    Shakemaps • Mapas de: –PGA – PGV – PGD – SA – Intensidade shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control.
  • 94.
    Mecanismo Focal: Inversões doTensor Momento Domingues et al., GJI 2012
  • 95.
    Detecção de sismospor Tweets Earle et al, AG 2012
  • 96.
    Redes de MEMS MicroElectro Mechanical Systems
  • 97.
    Sismologia na era dacomunicação digital Susana Custódio susana@fc.ul.pt Kanamori,Nature1997 ESB, 23/Fev/2017
  • 98.
    Porquê fazer sismologiaem tempo real? 1. Porque reduz os danos materiais e humanos. es ties receive the warnings them with public address Docomo, AU, Softbank) receive them (47%) iders serve earthquake location and hazard estimated shaking in your area Aviso antecipado, Japão Tohoku 2011 Courtesy of Richard Allen, UC Berkeley Shakemap, M4.3 LA Worden et al., BSSA 2010 Shakemap Aviso Antecipado
  • 99.
    Porquê fazer sismologiaem tempo real? Bogota, Colombia, M6.2, 2015 Virginia, USA, M5.8, 2011 2. Porque queremos (e esperamos) saber rapidamente o que se está a passar.
  • 100.
    Porquê fazer sismologiaem tempo real? Ellsworth and Beroza Science, 1995 3. Porque contribui para o avanço da ciência.
  • 101.
    Qual a informaçãoque temos disponível em tempo real? Ammon et al., SRL 2010
  • 102.
    Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais SismoTO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min 30 min 1 hr15 min
  • 103.
    Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais SismoTO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min
  • 104.
    Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais SismoTO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  • 105.
    Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Estimativade danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  • 106.
    Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais MecanismoFocal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  • 107.
    Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais MecanismoFocal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min Falha finita 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min >20 min > 2 hr 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  • 108.
    Mecanismo Focal: Inversões doTensor Momento Domingues et al., GJI 2012
  • 109.
    Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais MecanismoFocal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min Falha finita 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps W-phase 20-50 min >20 min > 2 hr 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr
  • 110.
    Aviso Antecipado 1. As primeirasondas (P) têm menor amplitude. 2. As primeiras ondas (P) contêm informação sobre a magnitude dos sismos. Allen et al, 2003
  • 111.
    Qual a informaçãoque temos disponível em tempo real?