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Evolution of Work
- 1. Evolution of Work AndrewYsursa Strategic Planning Salesforce
- 2. The rise ofthe independent workforce Sources: MBO Partners: State of Independence in America – Jun 2016; Upwork: Freelancing in America – Oct 2015 ‘11-‘16 < ‘16-‘21 2X growth rate
- 3. Drivers of theIndependent Workforce Business Increasingly competitive global economy Looking for increased flexibility More cost efficient to hire project basis only Workers Jaded after layoffs/pay cuts Increasing workloads and decreasing job security Greater work/life balance; be your own boss flexibility Enablers Cheaper, more powerful/accessible technology Vastly improved networks driven by social platforms
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- 6. Can machines replicatehuman tastes and sensibilities?
- 7. Human-Machine Symbiosis: IntelligenceAugmentation It’s wishful thinking to believe that human intelligence adds value in every application But… The ability to work well alongside machines will be an increasingly essential & widespread skillset Experts and Algorithms > Experts or Algorithms
- 8. Implications of AI &Automation
- 9. “…not just numberof jobs lost to more efficient machines, but automation may prevent the economy from creating enough new jobs…automation is beginning to move in and eliminate service and office jobs too” The Automation Jobless
- 10. “…not just numberof jobs lost to more efficient machines, but automation may prevent the economy from creating enough new jobs…automation is beginning to move in and eliminate service and office jobs too” The Automation Jobless - February 24, 1961
- 11. Technological change shifts,rather than diminishes, employment • Tasks that cannot be substituted by automation are generally complemented by it, raising the value of the tasks that human workers uniquely supply • Labor-saving technological change displaces certain job tasks, while over the long run generating new products & services that raise incomes and increase demand for labor “New artisans” combine technical & interpersonal tasks to offer uniquely human services 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 Employment/Population ratio, Age 25-54, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sep 2016
- 12. Job activities, notnecessarily entire occupations, may be automated Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Jul 2016 v 1.Technical feasibility 2.Benefits vs costs 3.Supply & demand dynamics of labor 4.Regulatory & societal acceptability Factors affecting automation:
- 13. Further develop UniquelyHuman Skills • Frequent, high-volume, routine, codifiable tasks • Mechanical power for human brawn • Machine-consistency for human handiwork • Digital calculation for slow & error-prone human cognition Polanyi’s Paradox: We know more than we can tell Advantages of Machines: Disadvantages of Machines: • Poor at “abstract” tasks (e.g. problem-solving capabilities, intuition, creativity, and persuasion) • Poor at “manual” tasks (e.g. situational adaptability, visual & language recognition, interpersonal interactions) • Machine-learning is fundamentally limited by the needs to learn from large volumes of past data
- 14. Evolution of careerlearning & development Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dec 2015 Source: WEF Future of Jobs, Jan 2016 65%of children entering primary school are likely to find themselves in roles that do not yet exist • Collaboration • Innovation • Critical thinking • Emotional Intelligence Develop skills complemented by rather than substituted by technology:
- 15. The most importantskill: How to learn (and relearn) “The illiterate of the 21st Century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn” — Alvin Toffler
- 16. New sources oflearning
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- 18. Future of WorkScenarios Current Jobs Displaced Quickly Current Jobs Displaced Slowly
- 19. Future of WorkScenarios Current Jobs Displaced Quickly Current Jobs Displaced Slowly New Jobs Emerge Quickly New Jobs Emerge Slowly
- 20. Future of WorkScenarios Current Jobs Displaced Quickly Current Jobs Displaced Slowly New Jobs Emerge Quickly New Jobs Emerge Slowly Jobs Crisis Focused investment in training/re-training Public sector intervention; private sector “automation tax”
- 21. Future of WorkScenarios Current Jobs Displaced Quickly Current Jobs Displaced Slowly New Jobs Emerge Quickly New Jobs Emerge Slowly False Alarm Jobs Crisis Slow, manageable change; non-urgent Focused investment in training/re-training Public sector intervention; private sector “automation tax”
- 22. Future of WorkScenarios Current Jobs Displaced Quickly Current Jobs Displaced Slowly New Jobs Emerge Quickly New Jobs Emerge Slowly False Alarm Labor Shortage Jobs Crisis Slow, manageable change; non-urgent Training investment & public- private sector collaboration on incentives Focused investment in training/re-training Public sector intervention; private sector “automation tax”
- 23. Future of WorkScenarios Current Jobs Displaced Quickly Current Jobs Displaced Slowly New Jobs Emerge Quickly New Jobs Emerge Slowly New Economy False Alarm Labor Shortage Jobs Crisis Slow, manageable change; non-urgent Training investment & public- private sector collaboration on incentives Focused investment in training/re-training Public sector intervention; private sector “automation tax”
- 24. Thank Y u AndrewYsursa Strategic Planning Salesforce