2. Description
Scenario 1
A premium commanded by the company in the market.
Manufacture of a slew of expensive products in the market.
Lack of new products in companies stable.
Manufacture of expensive products.
No focus on new products.
Scenario 2
Lack of availability of products at company warehouses
One time production of goods
Lower availability of products with the distributors
Loss in sales due to unavailability of products with the distributors and
retailers.
A huge push in sale of the products by the salesmen to achieve their
targets even if it was not in tandem with the market demand.
3. Description Contd..
Scenario 3
A navigation of possibility on importing goods from a foreign supplier.
A concern on maintain the quality of goods supplied from abroad.
How to keep accurate forecasting.
Problem Statement
Identifying the key issue that the manager should address
Identifying the root cause for the problem
A clear assessment of all the root causes which caused the problem
7. Core Problems
Scenario 1
High R&D cost on Product Development
Expensive new products
Discouraged Design and Engineering Team
Scenario 2
Inaccurate forecasting by sales persons
Production once in a month
Improper inventory management at warehouses
Scenario 3
Delayed Delivery from suppliers
Low quality from suppliers
Improper forecasting
8. Scenario 2 – EC
Core Problem 1 – Inaccurate Forecasting
A. Profit
Maximization
B. Avoid Stock
outs and costs
on excess
inventory
D. Invest on
better
forecasting
techniques
D'. Do not invest
on forecasting
techniques
C. Savings on
forecasting
expenses
Assumption:
‘Investment’ and
‘Non Investment’
cannot be done
at the same time
Forecasting
techniques contribute
a significant amount in
the total expenses
Forecasting
techniques help
predict sales and
developing a better
production plan
Increase profit by
reducing costs of
inventory and
increasing sales
Less expense on
forecasting means
less overall
expenses and thus,
more profit
9. Core Problem 1
Arrow Assumption Injection
AB
Expensive Inventory
management
Throughput Focus
AC Good Production Planning Better Inventory management
BD Better Forecasting Better Analytics and Market research
CD’
Expensive Forecasting
Techniques
Better Production Planning
D/D’ Can’t do both Investment Constraint
10. Scenario 2 – EC/Conflict
Resolution Diagram
Core Problem 2 – Delayed Delivery from supplier
A. Profit
Maximization
B. Less expenses in
logistics
D. Inventory
replenishment at
warehouses once a
month
D'. Inventory
replenishment at
warehouses multiple
times a month
C. Ensuring product
availability at
warehouses
Assumption:
Production multiple
times a month
which would involve
higher setup costs
hence goal conflict
in profit
maximization
Maintaining safety stock
at warehouses and
hence lesser demand
supply gap
Logistical expenses
depend on frequency of
deliveries
Less expenses in
logistics means
higher profits
More sales due to
availability of product
at all times which
would increase profits
11. Core Problem 2
Arrow Assumption Injection
AB Expensive Logistics One time Production
AC Demand in market Better sales and marketing practices
BD Accurate forecasting Better Analytics and Market research
CD’
Effective Finished Goods
Inventory Management
Better Production Scheduling
D/D’ Can’t do both Inventory Capacity Constraint
12. Scenario 2 – EC
Core Problem 3 – Improper inventory management at
warehouses
A. Profit
Maximization
B. Ensuring
availability of
product throughout
the month
D. Production
multiple times a
month
D'. Production only
once a month
C. Savings on
setup costs
Assumption:
Production can
either be once or
multiple times a
month
Production in one-go
requires setup only
once and thus,
reducing setup cost
expenses
Production multiple times
a month can take care of
any mid-month gap in the
demand and supply
Increase in sales
and hence, profits
Setup costs are a
significant part of
the expenses. So,
less set up costs
implies more profits
13. Core Problem 3
Arrow Assumption Injection
AB Demand at warehouse Better sales practices
AC Expensive Setup Cost One time Production
BD
Effective Finished Goods
Inventory Management
Better Production Scheduling
CD’ Accurate forecasting Better Analytics and Market research
D/D’ Can’t do both Production Capacity Constraint
17. Negative Effects FRT – Core
Problem 1
Better analytics
and market
research
More
Forecasting
expenses
Higher
Overhead
expenses
Better
production
planning
High expenses
on inventory
management
Throughput
Focus
WIP Control
Less finished
goods
Stock outs at
warehouses
Stock outs at
retail outlets
Low sales
Lower profit
Lower market
share
Injections
18. Negative Effects FRT – Core
Problem 2
Good production
scheduling
Higher expenses
on Inventory
Management
Better analytics
and market
research
More Forecasting
Expenses
Higher Overhead
expenses
Sales and
Marketing
techniques
Higher expenses
One time delivery
Stock outs at
warehouses
Stock outs at
retail outlets
Lower Sales
Lower Profit
Lower Market
Share
Injections
19. Negative Effects FRT – Core
Problem 3
Good production
scheduling
Higher expenses
on Inventory
Management
Better analytics
and market
research
More
Forecasting
Expenses
Higher Overhead
expenses
Sales and
Marketing
techniques
Higher expenses
One time
production
Less Finished
goods inventory
Stock outs at
warehouses
Lower Sales
Lower Profit
Lower Market
Share
Injections
20. Negative Effects Trimming – Core
Problem 1
Build to Order/
Mass
customization
Better analytics
and market
research
More Forecasting
expenses
Lower Overhead
expenses
Better production
planning
Low expenses on
inventory
management
Build to Order/
Mass
customization
Throughput Focus WIP Control
Less finished
goods
No Stock outs at
warehouses
No Stock outs at
retail outlets
Higher sales
Higher profit
Higher market
share
Increase capacity
by parallel
production lines
Corrective Injection
Injections
21. Negative Effects Trimming – Core
Problem 2
Build to Order/
Mass
customization
Good production
scheduling
Higher expenses
on Inventory
Management
Better analytics
and market
research
More Forecasting
Expenses
Lower Overhead
expenses
Sales and
Marketing
techniques
Higher expenses
One time delivery
No Stock outs at
warehouses
No Stock outs at
retail outlets
Higher Sales
Higher Profit
Higher Market
Share
Higher safety
stock
Corrective Injection
Injections
22. Negative Effects Trimming – Core
Problem 3
Build to Order/
Mass
customization
Good production
scheduling
Higher expenses
on Inventory
Management
Better analytics
and market
research
More Forecasting
Expenses
Lower Overhead
expenses
Sales and
Marketing
techniques
Higher expenses
One time
production
High Finished
goods inventory
No Stock outs at
warehouses
Higher Sales
Higher Profit
Higher Market
Share
Higher safety
stock
Corrective Injection
Injections
23. Pre-requisite Tree
Reduce Work In
Process
dramatically, i.e.
smaller batches
Clear priority and
visibility of load
at key machines
Better flow of
goods
Shorter cycle
times
Reliability
Shorter Lead
times
More
Capacity
Traffic and traffic jams,
confusion in priority at
work center
Necessary information for
shop floor to meet due
dates and for the factory to
manage capacity not
available
Capacity
Constraint
Resource
Intermediare
Objectives
Obstacles
24. Transition Tree
Smaller batches
i.e. less throughput
Record the
capacity, load and
process time at all
the work centres'
Exploit the
capacity
constraint
resource
Increase Overall
Equipent
Effectiveness (OEE)
i.e. Availability,
Performance, Quality
Reduce Work In
Process
dramatically,
Clear priority and
visibiilty of load at
key machines
Better flow of
goods
Shorter cycle
times
Reliability
Shorter Lead
times
More
Capacity
Smaller batches
will give less
throughput
Finding process
times and load
will help identify
the constraint
and key
machines
100% use of
CCR will lead
to better flow
OEE helps in
identifying
and
eliminating
the root
causes
Working Assumptions
Intermediare
Objectives
Actions
25. Pre-requisite Tree contd.
Intermediate
Objectives
Reduce Work In
Process dramatically,
i.e. smaller batches
Clear priority and
visibility of load at key
machines
Better flow of goods
Shorter cycle times
Reliability
Shorter Lead times
More Capacity
Obstacles
Traffic and traffic jams,
confusion in priority at
work center
Capacity Constraint
Resource
Necessary information
for shop floor to meet
due dates and for the
factory to manage
capacity not available
26. Recommendations
Implement Build-to-order
This would be beneficial in the following
context:
Low inventory carrying costs
Low procurement costs
On- demand supply
Better responsiveness leading to higher sales.