Varietal Forestry: Technology, Performance, Value  Arkansas Forestry Association October 5, 2011 John Pait
Topics <ul><li>Varietal Forestry Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Field Performance  </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Analysis & Valu...
CellFor <ul><li>Overview:   global leader in varietal seedlings for reforestation </li></ul><ul><li>Business Model:  Seed ...
CellFor’s Global Footprint Chile Radiata > 7 ,000 varietal lines in trials Brazil/ Argentina Loblolly British Columbia Spr...
Drivers for Productivity Gains Adapted from Fox, T.R., E.J. Jokela, and H.L. Allen, 2004
Power of Genetics Proven in other Agricultural Crops Open-Pollinated Varieties 1866 to 1933 Double-Cross Hybrids 1934 to 1...
Genetic Options for Reforestation <ul><li>Bulk Orchard Seed  by generation of advancement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>20 to 40 i...
What is Varietal Forestry? <ul><li>Variety (aka clone, line) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collection of individuals all with the ...
First Patent Issued for A Tree for Reforestation:  Varietal CF L3791 US PP19,447, P3  Pait , et al. November 11, 2008  Lob...
CellFor Plantings 2000 – 2010 Over 1,000 Forest Stands in +175 Counties
CellFor Production Overview Produce Plantable Germinants Grow Plantable Germinants into Miniplugs Grow Miniplugs into Fini...
Germplasm Capture and Testing Selected Parents Seeds Embryo Cultures A B C D Establishment of statistically designed Field...
CellFor’s lab process starts with a green cone and immature seed
Young embryo resides within the megagametophyte Zygotic Embryo Embryonal Cavity Megagametophyte
Embryogenic tissue from dissected seed
Embryogenic tissue is multiplied and cryopreserved for long term storage
Embryo and Germinant Production Transfer to Germination Mature Pine Embryos Plantable Germinant Cryo Preserved Tissue Tiss...
Germinants from Somatic Embryos
Seedlings Ready for Transplant
Miniplugs Await Transplanting
Containerized Seedling Nursery
Bareroot Nursery Crops
Key Drivers to Varietal Value Creation <ul><li>Growth & Productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Stand Uniformity & Sawtimber Potent...
Q7766 18 months old Resource Mgmt. Service Bolton, NC Growth
GROWTH: Q7766:  24 months
Growth: New CellFor Variety Winning by 47% in CellFor Line Trial in Argentina at Age 2
Growth:  Q7766  Age 2 North Carolina
Outstanding Growth:  CF O3621  Age 6  R.O. Martin
Uniformity in 20 Year Old Stand Varietal trial
Disease Resistance Age 6 years:  Rust Impacts STP Q3802 0% Stem Rust OP Family 22% Stem Rust
Reduced Risk:  Disease Resistance is Dramatic
Uniformity in Varietal Loblolly Pine Uniformity Q3802 Age 5,  Alabama  5
Log Quality Q3802 Small Branches
CF Q3802 Q3802 showing smaller and less frequent branches resulting in fewer and smaller knots Check
Varietal Branch Diameter  (Future Knots) is  Small & Stable 1 Very Small 2 Small 3 Small to Avg. 4 Average 5 Avg. to Large...
Log Quality: Pulpwood vs SawTimber 7-56 CellFor CF  Q3802
Crown Characteristics Can Be Selected
Loq Quality Sampling for Wood Density Analysis
Log Quality: Densitometry of Varietals vs Seedlings
Growth Rate & Wood Density:  Independent Traits with Varietals
Containerized Seedlings & Varietal Seedling Survival <ul><li>CellFor varieties are available in bare root or containerized...
Operational Survival of Containerized Varietal seedlings VS Bareroot OP seedlings in a droughty year  Data from Central Ar...
Survival of Containerized CellFor Variety compared to Bareroot OP seedlings on the same site.  North Louisiana 2009
Operational Survival of Containerized Varietal seedlings VS Bareroot CMP seedlings in a droughty year  Data from the Flori...
Operational Survival of Containerized Varietal Seedlings VS Bareroot OP and CMP seedlings  Data from Central South Carolin...
<ul><li>Fast Growth  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>  Rust Free  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Straight  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>  ...
<ul><li>Q3802: Age 12 & 70 feet tall </li></ul><ul><li>Stacked Traits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Superior growth </li></ul></ul...
Topics <ul><li>Varietal Forestry Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Field Performance  </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Analysis & Valu...
Operational Performance Plots of CellFor Varieties
Reduced Risk : 7% Average Increased Survival  Average difference 7%; n=66
Height Advantage of Varieties Increases Year over Year  (15 Tests With Repeated Measures)  Average Tree Height (ft) in Jan...
Average Height Gain 13% Over Improved Genotypes:   (%) over comparison genotypes by variety and test N= 61
Georgia
Loblolly Pine Variety O3621 vs. OP  7-56    Jeff Davis Co, GA, Operational Planting,  Age 6 Data
CellFor Varietal Stand vs OP Family  Age 6:  GA CellFor 7-56
CF O3621 vs. OP 7-56 , Tree Volume Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA 17%
CF L3514, O3621 vs. OP 7-56 Check  Tree Volume of STP Trees Only, Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA 61% 63%
CF O3621 vs. OP 7-56  Tree Volume of STP Trees Only Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA 54%
CF O3621 vs. Adjacent OP 7-56  Survival, STP and Stem Defects, Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA
CellFor Varietals: High SawTimber Potential Q3802 OP Family Crop Tree
Spatial Distribution of Stem Defects in O3621 and Adjacent OP 7-56 Plot Jeff Davis Co, GA, Age 6 O3621 OP 7-56
Spatial Distribution of Stem Defects in OP 7-56 Plots Jeff Davis Co, GA, Age 6 Plot 1 Plot 2
O3621 and Adjacent OP 7-56 Plot Before and After Hypothetical Thinning Thinning OP 7-56 plot: all non-STP trees resulting ...
Louisiana
April 29, 2011 Loblolly Pine Variety CF Q3802 vs. OP Check    Columbia Land and Timber, Merryville, Beauregard Parish, LA,...
37% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd  Gen Check, Height Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
151% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd  Gen Check, Tree Volume Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
230% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd  Gen Check, Volume per Acre Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
R.O. Martin CF O3621  Age 5, Provencal,  LA
Height (ft) Age 5 + 31% (4.9 ft)
Volume (ft 3 /tree) Age 5 + 113%
DBH Class Distribution per Acre Age 5 O3621_Prov. 1st Gen OP TPA  =  445  421 HT  =  20.8  15.9 DBH =  3.4  2.7 STP  =  96...
Outstanding Growth:  CF O3621  Age 6  R.O. Martin
April 29, 2011 Loblolly Pine Variety CF Q3802 vs. OP Check    Columbia Land and Timber, Merryville, Beauregard Parish, LA,...
37% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd  Gen Check, Height Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
151% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd  Gen Check, Tree Volume Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
March 25, 2011 Loblolly Pine Variety CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd  Gen Family    Deltic Timber,  Union Pa, LA, Operational Planting, ...
CellFor Q3802:  Age 6, Deltic Timber
+6.6 ft +4.9 ft 25% CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd  Gen OP, Height at Age 5 and 6 Deltic Timber, Junction City, Union Pa, LA
+2.0 ft 3 +1.5 ft 3 38% CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd  Gen OP , Volume at Age 5 and 6 Deltic Timber, Junction City, Union Pa, LA
CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd  Gen OP Survival, STP and Stem Defects Deltic Timber, Junction City, Union Pa, LA,  Age 6
Arkansas
Variety CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd  Gen Family    Molpus Operational Planting, El Dorado, Union Co, AR,  Age 6 Data
Molpus, Union County AR: Age 6 Q3802 2 nd  Gen Family
+1.8 ft +1.7 ft 27% Height Gain:  CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd  Gen Family Molpus, El Dorado, Union Co, AR
+0.8 ft 3 +0.4 ft 3 68% Volume Gain: CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd  Gen Family Molpus, El Dorado, Union Co, AR
Survival, STP and Stem Defects CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd  Gen Family Molpus, El Dorado, Union Co, AR, Age 6
Financial Analysis <ul><li>Discounted Cash Flows </li></ul><ul><li>IRR </li></ul><ul><li>Valuation:  pre-merchantable anal...
Varietals vs 2 nd  Gen Benefits  Financial  Criteria Varietal  Seedlings 2 nd  Gen  Seedlings Net Benefits BLV $1,696/ac $...
Varietals vs CMP Benefits  Financial  Criteria Varietal  Seedlings CMP  Seedlings Net Benefits BLV $1,696/ac $1,078/ac + $...
Value of Varietal Traits  57% Value Accretion
Marginal Return on CellFor Investment
Timber & Housing Market Pricing:  Are we there yet?
Varietal Seedlings and Stumpage Price Regime: LCP, 484/434TPA, SI 60, One Thinning, 40% Volume Gain, Seedling Prices at $0...
New Markets: Biomass <ul><li>Georgia Biomass began operation April 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>750,000 tons of pellets per year...
Practice Good Silviculture <ul><li>Address Limiting Factors:  Site Specific </li></ul><ul><li>Weed Control </li></ul><ul><...
Planning is Critical
Silviculture & Varietal Stocking Rate  Cost Per Acre…..Not Cost Per Seedling <ul><li>Varieties have much higher STP with u...
Varietal Silvicultural System:  Higher Value for Equivalent Cost
Summary <ul><li>Varietal forestry is operational in the southern US with loblolly pine. </li></ul><ul><li>CellFor varietal...
Age 14 UGA PMRC  Volume Increases Slow Down After 400tpa Pienaar, L. V., B. D. Shiver and W. M. Harrison. 1997. Growth pot...
CellFor Varietal Forestry
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CellFor Varietal Forestry

  1. 1. Varietal Forestry: Technology, Performance, Value Arkansas Forestry Association October 5, 2011 John Pait
  2. 2. Topics <ul><li>Varietal Forestry Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Field Performance </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Analysis & Valuation </li></ul>
  3. 3. CellFor <ul><li>Overview: global leader in varietal seedlings for reforestation </li></ul><ul><li>Business Model: Seed technology company serving all timberland owners and managers. </li></ul><ul><li>Company : 100 employees with locations in Victoria BC, Atlanta, Savannah, GA Conway AR, Columbia, SC, Lufkin, TX, Denver, CO </li></ul><ul><li>Structure: Privately held by investors including: ATP, CSFB, BDC, Growth Works, DuPont, and others. </li></ul>
  4. 4. CellFor’s Global Footprint Chile Radiata > 7 ,000 varietal lines in trials Brazil/ Argentina Loblolly British Columbia Spruce, Doug Fir South East USA Loblolly, Slash New Zealand Radiata Australia Radiata South Africa Patula
  5. 5.
  6. 6. Drivers for Productivity Gains Adapted from Fox, T.R., E.J. Jokela, and H.L. Allen, 2004
  7. 7. Power of Genetics Proven in other Agricultural Crops Open-Pollinated Varieties 1866 to 1933 Double-Cross Hybrids 1934 to 1955 Single-Cross Hybrids 1956 to 2001 Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service . Corn Yields 1866 to 2001 Current phase of conifer genetics
  8. 8. Genetic Options for Reforestation <ul><li>Bulk Orchard Seed by generation of advancement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>20 to 40 improved mother trees </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Thousands of male genotypes and pollen contamination </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lowest gain and cost </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Open Pollinated ½ Sib Families by generation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Single improved mother tree </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Thousands of male genotypes and pollen contamination </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Better gain and slight cost increase </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CMP: mass controlled pollination Full Sib families </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Single improved mother and father trees </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Thousands of genotypes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher gain and higher cost </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Varietals : best single tree from best families </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Single genotype </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highest gain and highest cost </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Holy Grail of Forest Tree Improvement </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. What is Varietal Forestry? <ul><li>Variety (aka clone, line) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collection of individuals all with the same genotype (same DNA) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Methods: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Tissue culture, rooting, grafting, etc. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No genetic engineering involved </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Varietal Forestry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Operational deployment of tested </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>varieties </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reforestation on an operational scale </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Usually 1 variety per forest stand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limited number of varieties deployed </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. First Patent Issued for A Tree for Reforestation: Varietal CF L3791 US PP19,447, P3 Pait , et al. November 11, 2008 Loblolly pine tree named ‘ CF L 3791 US PP19, 793, P3 Pait et al. March 3, 2009 Loblolly pine tree named ‘ CF Q7766’ US PP21,973, P3 Pait et al. June 14, 2011Loblolly pine tree named ‘ CF LP17696’
  11. 11. CellFor Plantings 2000 – 2010 Over 1,000 Forest Stands in +175 Counties
  12. 12. CellFor Production Overview Produce Plantable Germinants Grow Plantable Germinants into Miniplugs Grow Miniplugs into Finished Seedlings CellFor Labs (BC, Canada) Contract Nurseries (Canada & USA) Process completed in 12 to 18 Months Contract Nurseries (USA)
  13. 13. Germplasm Capture and Testing Selected Parents Seeds Embryo Cultures A B C D Establishment of statistically designed Field Trials Frozen Storage of Cultures Somatic Embryogenesis Production of selected variety Field Trials <ul><ul><li>Create an elite family and then select the very best individual from that family </li></ul></ul>Selection of best performing variety A B C D
  14. 14. CellFor’s lab process starts with a green cone and immature seed
  15. 15. Young embryo resides within the megagametophyte Zygotic Embryo Embryonal Cavity Megagametophyte
  16. 16. Embryogenic tissue from dissected seed
  17. 17. Embryogenic tissue is multiplied and cryopreserved for long term storage
  18. 18. Embryo and Germinant Production Transfer to Germination Mature Pine Embryos Plantable Germinant Cryo Preserved Tissue Tissue Initiation Tissue Bulk-up
  19. 19. Germinants from Somatic Embryos
  20. 20. Seedlings Ready for Transplant
  21. 21. Miniplugs Await Transplanting
  22. 22. Containerized Seedling Nursery
  23. 23. Bareroot Nursery Crops
  24. 24. Key Drivers to Varietal Value Creation <ul><li>Growth & Productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Stand Uniformity & Sawtimber Potential </li></ul><ul><li>Disease Resistance </li></ul><ul><li>Survival </li></ul>
  25. 25. Q7766 18 months old Resource Mgmt. Service Bolton, NC Growth
  26. 26. GROWTH: Q7766: 24 months
  27. 27. Growth: New CellFor Variety Winning by 47% in CellFor Line Trial in Argentina at Age 2
  28. 28. Growth: Q7766 Age 2 North Carolina
  29. 29. Outstanding Growth: CF O3621 Age 6 R.O. Martin
  30. 30. Uniformity in 20 Year Old Stand Varietal trial
  31. 31. Disease Resistance Age 6 years: Rust Impacts STP Q3802 0% Stem Rust OP Family 22% Stem Rust
  32. 32. Reduced Risk: Disease Resistance is Dramatic
  33. 33. Uniformity in Varietal Loblolly Pine Uniformity Q3802 Age 5, Alabama 5
  34. 34. Log Quality Q3802 Small Branches
  35. 35. CF Q3802 Q3802 showing smaller and less frequent branches resulting in fewer and smaller knots Check
  36. 36. Varietal Branch Diameter (Future Knots) is Small & Stable 1 Very Small 2 Small 3 Small to Avg. 4 Average 5 Avg. to Large 6 Large 7 Very Large 75% score 3 or better
  37. 37. Log Quality: Pulpwood vs SawTimber 7-56 CellFor CF Q3802
  38. 38. Crown Characteristics Can Be Selected
  39. 39. Loq Quality Sampling for Wood Density Analysis
  40. 40. Log Quality: Densitometry of Varietals vs Seedlings
  41. 41. Growth Rate & Wood Density: Independent Traits with Varietals
  42. 42. Containerized Seedlings & Varietal Seedling Survival <ul><li>CellFor varieties are available in bare root or containerized stock types. </li></ul><ul><li>Containers: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk Reduction: High survival rates: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Widest Planting Window: October to May </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower TPA: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plantability: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hand: Consistent seedling size facilitates hand planting </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Machine: Yes </li></ul></ul></ul>
  43. 43. Operational Survival of Containerized Varietal seedlings VS Bareroot OP seedlings in a droughty year Data from Central Arkansas, 2007
  44. 44. Survival of Containerized CellFor Variety compared to Bareroot OP seedlings on the same site. North Louisiana 2009
  45. 45. Operational Survival of Containerized Varietal seedlings VS Bareroot CMP seedlings in a droughty year Data from the Florida Panhandle, 2011
  46. 46. Operational Survival of Containerized Varietal Seedlings VS Bareroot OP and CMP seedlings Data from Central South Carolina, 2011
  47. 47. <ul><li>Fast Growth </li></ul><ul><ul><li> Rust Free </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Straight </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> Low Forking </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Small Limbs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Narrow Crowns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Good Wood Density </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Only with Varieties can all these value traits be stacked and exhibited in every tree on every acre planted </li></ul>CellFor Elite Varieties = Stacked Value Traits
  48. 48. <ul><li>Q3802: Age 12 & 70 feet tall </li></ul><ul><li>Stacked Traits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Superior growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Disease free </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highest log quality & value </li></ul></ul>Varietals: Combine Traits in One Tree
  49. 49. Topics <ul><li>Varietal Forestry Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Field Performance </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Analysis & Valuation </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainability </li></ul>
  50. 50. Operational Performance Plots of CellFor Varieties
  51. 51. Reduced Risk : 7% Average Increased Survival Average difference 7%; n=66
  52. 52. Height Advantage of Varieties Increases Year over Year (15 Tests With Repeated Measures) Average Tree Height (ft) in January 2010 and January 2011 3.5 ft difference 4.1 ft difference
  53. 53. Average Height Gain 13% Over Improved Genotypes: (%) over comparison genotypes by variety and test N= 61
  54. 54. Georgia
  55. 55. Loblolly Pine Variety O3621 vs. OP 7-56 Jeff Davis Co, GA, Operational Planting, Age 6 Data
  56. 56. CellFor Varietal Stand vs OP Family Age 6: GA CellFor 7-56
  57. 57. CF O3621 vs. OP 7-56 , Tree Volume Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA 17%
  58. 58. CF L3514, O3621 vs. OP 7-56 Check Tree Volume of STP Trees Only, Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA 61% 63%
  59. 59. CF O3621 vs. OP 7-56 Tree Volume of STP Trees Only Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA 54%
  60. 60. CF O3621 vs. Adjacent OP 7-56 Survival, STP and Stem Defects, Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA
  61. 61. CellFor Varietals: High SawTimber Potential Q3802 OP Family Crop Tree
  62. 62. Spatial Distribution of Stem Defects in O3621 and Adjacent OP 7-56 Plot Jeff Davis Co, GA, Age 6 O3621 OP 7-56
  63. 63. Spatial Distribution of Stem Defects in OP 7-56 Plots Jeff Davis Co, GA, Age 6 Plot 1 Plot 2
  64. 64. O3621 and Adjacent OP 7-56 Plot Before and After Hypothetical Thinning Thinning OP 7-56 plot: all non-STP trees resulting in 314 TPA Thinning O3621 plot: all non-STP and the smallest trees resulting in 314 TPA O3621 OP 7-56 O3621 OP 7-56 Vol/tree ft3 = 5.91 5.05 Gain in Vol/tree = +17% O3621 OP 7-56 Vol/tree ft3 = 6.59 5.04 Gain in Vol/tree = +31% O3621 OP 7-56
  65. 65. Louisiana
  66. 66. April 29, 2011 Loblolly Pine Variety CF Q3802 vs. OP Check Columbia Land and Timber, Merryville, Beauregard Parish, LA, Operational Planting
  67. 67. 37% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd Gen Check, Height Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
  68. 68. 151% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd Gen Check, Tree Volume Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
  69. 69. 230% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd Gen Check, Volume per Acre Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
  70. 70. R.O. Martin CF O3621 Age 5, Provencal, LA
  71. 71. Height (ft) Age 5 + 31% (4.9 ft)
  72. 72. Volume (ft 3 /tree) Age 5 + 113%
  73. 73. DBH Class Distribution per Acre Age 5 O3621_Prov. 1st Gen OP TPA = 445 421 HT = 20.8 15.9 DBH = 3.4 2.7 STP = 96% 88% Gain in Vol/tree = +113% Gain in Vol/acre = +125%
  74. 74. Outstanding Growth: CF O3621 Age 6 R.O. Martin
  75. 75. April 29, 2011 Loblolly Pine Variety CF Q3802 vs. OP Check Columbia Land and Timber, Merryville, Beauregard Parish, LA, Operational Planting
  76. 76. 37% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd Gen Check, Height Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
  77. 77. 151% CF Q3802 vs. OP 2 nd Gen Check, Tree Volume Age 4 Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
  78. 78. March 25, 2011 Loblolly Pine Variety CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd Gen Family Deltic Timber, Union Pa, LA, Operational Planting, Age 6
  79. 79. CellFor Q3802: Age 6, Deltic Timber
  80. 80. +6.6 ft +4.9 ft 25% CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd Gen OP, Height at Age 5 and 6 Deltic Timber, Junction City, Union Pa, LA
  81. 81. +2.0 ft 3 +1.5 ft 3 38% CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd Gen OP , Volume at Age 5 and 6 Deltic Timber, Junction City, Union Pa, LA
  82. 82. CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd Gen OP Survival, STP and Stem Defects Deltic Timber, Junction City, Union Pa, LA, Age 6
  83. 83. Arkansas
  84. 84. Variety CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd Gen Family Molpus Operational Planting, El Dorado, Union Co, AR, Age 6 Data
  85. 85. Molpus, Union County AR: Age 6 Q3802 2 nd Gen Family
  86. 86. +1.8 ft +1.7 ft 27% Height Gain: CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd Gen Family Molpus, El Dorado, Union Co, AR
  87. 87. +0.8 ft 3 +0.4 ft 3 68% Volume Gain: CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd Gen Family Molpus, El Dorado, Union Co, AR
  88. 88. Survival, STP and Stem Defects CF Q3802 vs. 2 nd Gen Family Molpus, El Dorado, Union Co, AR, Age 6
  89. 89. Financial Analysis <ul><li>Discounted Cash Flows </li></ul><ul><li>IRR </li></ul><ul><li>Valuation: pre-merchantable analysis </li></ul>
  90. 90. Varietals vs 2 nd Gen Benefits Financial Criteria Varietal Seedlings 2 nd Gen Seedlings Net Benefits BLV $1,696/ac $935/ac + $761/ac NPV $1,225/ac $676/ac + $549/ac IRR CellFor Seedling 13.0% 0.0% + 13.0% Revenue @ Rotation $6,299/ac $3,783/ac + $2,516/ac
  91. 91. Varietals vs CMP Benefits Financial Criteria Varietal Seedlings CMP Seedlings Net Benefits BLV $1,696/ac $1,078/ac + $618/ac NPV $1,225/ac $779/ac + $446/ac IRR CellFor Seedling 16.8% 0.0% + 16.8% Revenue @ Rotation $6,299/ac $4,474/ac + $1,825/ac
  92. 92. Value of Varietal Traits 57% Value Accretion
  93. 93. Marginal Return on CellFor Investment
  94. 94. Timber & Housing Market Pricing: Are we there yet?
  95. 95. Varietal Seedlings and Stumpage Price Regime: LCP, 484/434TPA, SI 60, One Thinning, 40% Volume Gain, Seedling Prices at $0.05 and $0.40
  96. 96. New Markets: Biomass <ul><li>Georgia Biomass began operation April 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>750,000 tons of pellets per year </li></ul><ul><li>1,500,000 tons of pine per year </li></ul>
  97. 97. Practice Good Silviculture <ul><li>Address Limiting Factors: Site Specific </li></ul><ul><li>Weed Control </li></ul><ul><li>Hardwood Control </li></ul><ul><li>Nutrition Management </li></ul><ul><li>Planting Quality </li></ul><ul><li>Thinning Execution </li></ul>
  98. 98. Planning is Critical
  99. 99. Silviculture & Varietal Stocking Rate Cost Per Acre…..Not Cost Per Seedling <ul><li>Varieties have much higher STP with uniform straightness, stable crown width and limb size. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Crop tree focus </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wider row spacing at establishment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower stocking rate </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Less tillage </li></ul><ul><li>Less herbicide </li></ul><ul><li>Lower planting costs </li></ul><ul><li>Use of containerized seedlings enhances survival and seasonal flexibility </li></ul>
  100. 100. Varietal Silvicultural System: Higher Value for Equivalent Cost
  101. 101. Summary <ul><li>Varietal forestry is operational in the southern US with loblolly pine. </li></ul><ul><li>CellFor varietals are thoroughly tested. </li></ul><ul><li>Varietal silviculture system uses fewer trees per acre and allows for more flexibility. </li></ul><ul><li>Varietal operational performance is high and stable. </li></ul><ul><li>Financial analysis indicates substantial gains in NPV, IRR and Revenue. </li></ul>
  102. 102. Age 14 UGA PMRC Volume Increases Slow Down After 400tpa Pienaar, L. V., B. D. Shiver and W. M. Harrison. 1997. Growth potential of loblolly pine plantations in the Georgia Piedmont: A spacing study example. PMRC Technical Report 1997-1. 15pp.

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