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  • Full Utilization : Exercise the benefits of both the male and female parents that have 2-3 cycles of TI-----Allows going beyond the orchard average. Wild pollen dilution : Elimination of wild pollination dilution of TI gains---In some orchards this may be as important as the gains from pairing the best parents Complementary Breeding : Maximize strengths and minimize weaknesses Genetic Certainty in planting stock: Allows silvicultural adjustments that save the grower money and the establishment of stands with higher NPV opportunities
  • ArborGen

    1. 1. Silviculture and Genetic Effects on Stand Yield and Value
    2. 2. <ul><li>Presentation Objectives: </li></ul><ul><li>Review changes in genetics that are occurring </li></ul><ul><li>Review changes in silviculture that are occurring </li></ul><ul><li>Discuss what drives stand yield and stand value </li></ul><ul><li>Results of how good silviculture and genetics are increasing stand yield and value </li></ul><ul><li>Look at an example of new opportunities for managing to increase stand value </li></ul>
    3. 3. Changing genetics!
    4. 4. Select Breed Test Select Breed Test Select Breed Test First Generation Open-Pollinated (OP) Orchard 1963-1980 Second Gen Orchard 1981-2011 Third Cycle Orchard 2008- Where we have been: <ul><li>First selections for testing made in 1950’s </li></ul><ul><li>It takes about 15 years to breed, test and bring an Orchard into full production </li></ul>
    5. 5. . Avg. OP Elite OP Elite OP/ Insight MCP MCP / Insight Early Varietals Varietals / Insight Value-$/Ac Future/ Biotechnology + Increased Genetic Certainty ArborGen S.E. USA pine products OP MCP Varieties
    6. 6. Average Gain for 2009 Nursery Crop <ul><li>2.0-Generation: 18.5% </li></ul><ul><li>2.0-Select 24.7% </li></ul><ul><li>3rd-Cycle: 34.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Elite: 38.3% </li></ul><ul><li>MCP: 40.0% </li></ul>Volume Gain Average Gain for 2010 Nursery Crop 125.9 56.0 MCP Loblolly 117.6 40.4 Elite Loblolly 113.4 43.9 3C Loblolly 110.4 33.9 2.5 Loblolly 88.0 28.8 2.0S Loblolly 81.5 22.9 2.0 Loblolly Index Vol Gain
    7. 7. <ul><li>Silvicultural Changes: </li></ul><ul><li>Plant lower density stands </li></ul><ul><li>Fall Planting with enhanced genetic stock </li></ul><ul><li>Flex Stand Deployment systems—based on market expectations </li></ul><ul><li>Resource focusing treatments---Individual tree or row treatments </li></ul><ul><li>Directed protection treatments </li></ul>
    8. 8. Review of what drives stand yield and stand value:
    9. 9. Achieved SI= Base Site Index + Genetic Improvements + Management Intensity <ul><li>Soil </li></ul><ul><li>Climate </li></ul><ul><li>Atmosphere </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CO 2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ozone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VPD </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Species </li></ul><ul><li>Level of TI </li></ul><ul><li>Site resource management </li></ul><ul><li>Resource inputs </li></ul>
    10. 10. Achieved Stand Value= Achieved SI + Value Management Intensity <ul><li>Planting less tpa </li></ul><ul><li>Use enhanced genetics to increase % ST and stem quality </li></ul><ul><li>Marking before thinning </li></ul><ul><li>Pruning </li></ul><ul><li>Apply pole production silv. </li></ul><ul><li>Manage for export logs </li></ul><ul><li>Use new silvcultural deployment systems </li></ul>
    11. 11. Pigeon Pond Establishment : -Site: Berkeley County, SC—Lower Coastal Plains -Soils: Moderately Well Drained-Goldsboro -Previous Rotation Site Index-base age 25 years : Low 70’s -Planted at 605 tpa in 1998 -Two years weed control -Systematic thin (remove every other row-no selection) =12’ x 12’ at age 5 303tpa -N&P fert at age-5 -Snow damage about age-6 -Fourth row operational thin to a target of 150 tpa or remove defective trees — Age 13 -Performance was evaluated at age-12 because all heights and dbh measured at this age Example of Genetics and silviculture impacts on stand yield and value
    12. 12. Before Thin Performance----Age 12
    13. 13. <ul><li>Strong performance by Elite OP families and MCP crosses: Exhibited SI ranges from 87 to 94 feet </li></ul><ul><li>Not all Elite OP are the same and not all MCP are the same </li></ul><ul><li>AGM29 was the first MCP cross produced by MWV and is no longer in commercial production </li></ul>
    14. 14. Green and light blue sections are sawtimber potential trees: 80% ST 66% ST 83% ST 58% ST 53% ST <ul><li>MCP % ST potential trees range from 80-83% </li></ul><ul><li>Elite OP % ST potential trees range from 53% to 66% </li></ul>
    15. 15. Age-12 Operational fourth row thinning results
    16. 16. <ul><li>Gtons/ac harvested ranged from 45 Gtons/ac to 54 Gtons/ac </li></ul><ul><li>At $10/Gton thinning cash flow would range from $450-$544/acre </li></ul><ul><li>At $15/Gton thinning cash flow would range from $683-$816/acre </li></ul>1 st thin yields:
    17. 17. <ul><li>The amount of basal area left after thinning was dependent on the % ST potential trees that were present before thinning </li></ul><ul><li>Stands with lower BA will have lower growth potential in the future </li></ul>Fourth Row Thin—Remove all low quality trees
    18. 18. <ul><li>4 th -row thinning of Elite OP stands left: 71-82% ST potential trees & 107-131 tpa </li></ul><ul><li>4th row thinning of MCP stands left: 90-93% ST potential trees & 134-139 tpa </li></ul><ul><li>The potential value of the stands going forward are not the same </li></ul>Genetic effects on the after-thin residual stand
    19. 19. Thinned OP AG373, 107 tpa, 48 BA, 80%ST
    20. 20. Thinned AG 769 , 131tpa, 62BA, 82% ST
    21. 21. MCP AGM22 139 tpa, 73BA, 90% ST
    22. 22. Current Stand Value and Future Value
    23. 23. Current Stand Value: If landowners or investors use current genetics and good silviculture can they grow stands that have significant standing value at age-12? $1222.00 101.9 AGM22 $1109.00 92.4 AGM29 $1043.00 86.9 AG-769 $1046.00 87.2 AG-373 $980.00 81.7 AG-175 Value at $12/Gton Age-12 Total Tons/Acre Genetics
    24. 24. Summary: -CC value varied between elite OP families AG175, AG373 & AG769 stands -There is variation in the value of MCP-(AGM29 is no longer a commercial MCP cross) <ul><li>Future Stand Value </li></ul><ul><li>Value of stand when CC at age 23. ST tonnage adjusted based on percent sawtimber trees, Assumed prices were $30.00 for ST, $15.00 for CNS and $10.00 for pulp </li></ul>
    25. 25. Dick West 13 year old Full-Sib Stand Dick West Stand Treatment History <ul><li>Completed harvest of previous stand in 1998 </li></ul><ul><li>Site Preparation (1998) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sheared, chopped and bedded in August </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chemical Site Prep. (Accord & Oust) October </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hand planted Nov. (7x 12’ spacing, 520 tpa) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rooted Cutting clones & OP seedling checks </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Herbaceous weed control in Spring of 1999 </li></ul>Example: Stand Value Management Considerations
    26. 26. Stand Performance @ 8 yr <ul><li>Exhibited Site Index </li></ul><ul><li>Full-Sib AE - 91.4 feet </li></ul><ul><li>AG373 - 91.8 feet </li></ul>
    27. 27. Example: Increasing value with new genetics—pole silviculture 228 Gtons/ac Total 173 Gtons/ac ST (Extract 80 Gtons/ac Poles) (@ $50/Gton=$4000/ac) 79% 35% Full-Sib Cross AE 50% 4% Full-Sib Cross AD 228 Gtons/ac Total 128 Gtons/ac ST (Extract 11 Gtons/ac Poles) (@ $50/Gton=$550/ac) 46% 5% OP Elite AG 373 Predicted Clearcut Gtons/ac @ Age 25 %ST Trees %Pole Trees Genetics
    28. 28. <ul><li>Summary </li></ul><ul><li>Many new genetic options are available that can lead to much improved stand value </li></ul><ul><li>The greater “genetic certainty” has opened up a wide range of silvicultural options that can reduce input cost, produce more wood and give greater market flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>Even in very depressed market conditions, timber investments can be very attractive if the best genetics and silviculture are applied correctly. </li></ul>