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ArborGen Confidential
A Look Forward
The Next 70 Years
Arkansas Forestry Association Meeting
October 7, 2015
2
Topics
• ArborGen Overview
• Looking Ahead – The Next 70 Years
• Elite Genetics
• MCP Case Study
ArborGen Confidential
3
ArborGen: Global Leader in Tree
Improvement and Seedling Production
ArborGen Confidential
Ridgeville, SC –
Global HQ
Whakatane, NZ –
Australasia HQ
Campinas, SP, BR –
S. America HQ
Americas
• 285MM in Sales
• ~1/3 of SE Pine Market
• 50% of MCP Market
• 100% of Varietal Market
Australasia
• 22MM in Sales
• ~40% of NZ Pine Market
• 20% of Australian Pine
Market
 Leading seedling
producer of over 340
million trees per year
 Global operations
• Southeastern U.S.
• New Zealand &
Australia
• Brazil
 Providing step-changes in
tree productivity
• Faster growth
• Disease resistance
• Improved wood quality
• Biomass production
4
Major repository of advanced commercial
pine germplasm and technology
 Built on over 100 years, in the aggregate, of tree improvement research from multiple industry leaders
 Further enhanced through ArborGen’s broad and strong development program
 Germplasm includes over 50 distinct commercial tree species and hybrids
 Catalogued over 13,500 unique varieties for two largest commercial pine species: loblolly and radiata
Hammermill Papers
Federal
Carter Holt
Harvey
CellFor
Champion
Union Camp Fletcher Challenge
5
ArborGen North American Operations
6
Fred C. Gragg Arkansas SuperTree Nursery
• First crop of 1980
• Has produced 1.7 billion pine seedlings and 47 million
hardwood seedlings
• Enough for a more than 3.5 million acres of Arkansas forests
• Services the entire industry, from the smallest landowner to
the largest institution
ArborGen Confidential
7
Deforestation
Native forest are being converted
to agricultural and other uses
decreasing wood availability
Consumption
Global population expanding
Increasing consumption in the
developing world
A Growing Wood Supply-Demand Gap is Driving the Need for
Increasingly Productive Plantation Forests
2000 – 6 Billion 2050 – 9 Billion
World Population
18 million acres
Or
AnnualAnnual
GlobalGlobal
DeforestationDeforestation
Forestry genetics will be a key element in addressing this gap
8
Today, forestry is:
• One-third of the United States land – 751 million acres.
• Privately-owned forests supply 91 percent of the wood
harvested in the U.S.
• More than 56 percent of U.S. forests privately owned, much of
it by family forest owners who manage their lands to provide
value to future generations.
• Harder than ever to get good return on forestry assets
ArborGen Confidential
9
70 Years of Pine Yield Drivers
Genetics….The Last Frontier
0
50
100
150
200
250
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Establishment period
Volumeatharvest(tons/acre)
Clonal and
biotechnology
Tree improvement
Weed control
Fertilization
Site preparation
Planting
Natural stand
Adapted from Fox, T.R., E.J. Jokela, and H.L. Allen, 2004
10
Genetics is at the Forefront of Driving
Increases in Forestry Productivity
• Loblolly pine product genetics are where the Ag. Industry was some 60 years ago –
for forestry the time between rotations has slowed the advance of new genetics
• MCP and Varietals are here now and will do for pine what hybrids did for corn
ArborGen Confidential
Current stage
of US pine
seedling
market
Double-Cross
Hybrids
Single-Cross
Hybrids
Open-Pollinated
GE
Next stage
of US pine
seedling
market
1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
50
100
0
150
CornYield(bushels/acre)
Open Pollinated
Next Generation
The “Ag-Forestry” Productivity Parallel
11
What will Produce the Highest Return for
Arkansas Landowners Today?
• Improving productivity in planted forests
• Site preparation
• Weed control
• Nutrition
• Improved tree form (STP)
• Improved genetics for plantation forestry
ArborGen Confidential
It is becoming increasingly important to take a
comprehensive, quantitative view of forestry
management practices and decisions.
12
Biologic Returns Driven by Genetics +
Forest Management
ArborGen Confidential
Machine Planting Competing Vegetation Control
13
One Year Old Stand on the Productivity
Launch Pad
• Top Asset Managers Utilize:
• Best genetics
• Site preparation
• Vegetation control
• Fertilization
• Information & decision support technology
ArborGen Confidential
14
Genetics Options for Reforestation Today
• Seed Orchard Mix
• 10 to 20 improved mother trees
• Lowest gain and cost
• Open Pollinated: Half-Sib Families
• Single improved mother tree
• Better gain and slight cost increase
• Mass Controlled Pollination: Full-Sib Families
• Best mother and father trees
• Higher gain and higher cost
• Varietals: Best Single Genotype from the Best Full-Sib
Crosses
• Single genotype
• Highest gain and highest cost
ArborGen Confidential
15
Elite Genetics:
MCP® & Varietals
16
Plantation Forest Management Starts
with Genetics & Nurseries
U.S. South: 1 Billion Southern Yellow Pine Seedlings Per Year
Bareroot Nursery Containerized Nursery
17
Mass Control Pollination (MCP®)
• Similar to Hybrid Corn
• Genetic potential of the pollen parent is added to the genetic
potential of the mother
+
Elite Mother Elite Father
18ArborGen Confidential
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Volume Gain %
0
20
40
60
80
100
Rust Infection Rate
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Straightness Gain
0
20
40
60
80
100
Fork Rate
AG-89
AG-89 is a powerful parent for MCP production
Selecting Elite Parents for MCP Hybrids
Distribution of Ratings for Coastal Parents
19
Mass Controlled Pollinated
20
Varietals: Production Overview
Produce Plantable
Germinants
Grow Plantable
Germinants into
Miniplugs
Grow Miniplugs into Finished
Seedlings
ArborGen Lab
Ridgeville, SC
Miniplug
Greenhouses
Ridgeville, SC
Process completed in 12 to 18 Months
Bare Root and
Containerized
Nurseries
21
MCP Family
• AGM 22 at Age 16
• Superb Growth
• Excellent Log
Quality
ArborGen Confidential
22ArborGen Confidential
Varietal Age 9: LA Varietal Age 8: NC
23
MCP & Varietal Genetics Value Drivers
• Volume Growth
• Higher Sawtimber Potential (STP)
• Straightness
• Forking Reduction
• Rust Resistance
• Volume x Quality = $$$
• A New System for Reforestation
• Higher STP
• Fewer TPA
ArborGen Confidential
24
0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 D 0 1 1 D 1 D 1 1 D 1 1 0 0 1 D 1
0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 D 0 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 D 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 D 0 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 D D 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 1
1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 D D 0 1 1 D D 1 0 1 D 1 1 0 D 0 1 0 1 1
1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0
1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 D 0 1 D 1 D 1 1 D D 1 0 1
1 1 D 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D D 0 D 1 D D 1 0 0 0 D D 1 0 1
1 0 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 D
D 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 D 1 0 1 D 0 0 0 D
1 1 0 D 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 0 1 D
1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 D D 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 1 1 D 1 D 1 1 D D 1 D 1 D 1 1
1 0 1 D 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 D
1 1 D 1 D 1 D 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 D 0 D
1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 0 1 D D 0 D 0 1 1 D D 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
1 0 D 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 D 0 0 1 1 D 1 D D 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D
1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 D 0 1 1 1 1 D 0 0 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 D 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 D 1 1 1 0 0 1 D 0 0 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 1 D 0 1 1
1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 D 0 1 D 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 D 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 D 0 1 D 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 D 0
D 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 D D 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 D 1 D 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
0 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 D 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 D 1 D
1 1 1 0 D 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 D 0 1 1 1 D D 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 D 1 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 D D 1 D 1 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 0 0 D 0 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 1 0 D 1
1 1 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 D 0 0 1 1 D 0 D 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 D
Open Pollinated Stands: Defect Map
9 locations (NC, SC, GA, FL, TX), 7 families, 950 trees, ages 5-9
1 STP tree
0 Non-STP tree
D Dead
25
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 D D 0 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 0 1
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
D 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D D 1 1 D D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 D
1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D D D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 D 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
1 1 1 D 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 D D 1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 D D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 0 1 D 1 1 D 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 0
1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1
Varietal Stands: Defect Map
9 locations (NC, SC, GA, FL, TX), 4 varieties, 1034 rees, ages 5-9
1 STP tree
0 Non-STP tree
D Dead
26
Varietal Q3802: Age 6
Deltic Timber
27
Height Growth: Q3802 and 2nd
Gen
OP Check
Deltic Timber Junction City, LA
28
Parameter Q3802 2nd
Gen % Change
STP (%) 100 77 29.9
Crooked (%) 2 14 -12
Forked (%) 2 19 -17
Stem Rust (%) 0 13 -13
Suppressed (%) 0 3 -3
Sawtimber Potential (STP) Age 10
Q3802: 100% of trees can become sawtimber
29
Spatial Distribution of Stem defects
Q3802 and 2nd Gen OP
Deltic Timber Junction City, LA
x 1 1 2 1
1 2 2 1 1
1 1 2 2 x
2 1 2 1 2
1 2 1 1 1
x 2 2 2 1
2 x 2 1 1
2 1 1 1 2
2 1 1 1 2
1 1 2 1 1
x 1 2 3 2
2 3 x 2 x
x x 3 3 2
2 1 2 1 x
3 x 1 1 2
2 2 2 3 1
x 1 3 x x
1 2 x 2 1
4 1 2 1 1
1 2 x 1 1
1=sawtimber tree no defects
2=sawtimber tree with minor defect
3=pulpwood tree major defect
4=small-suppressed pulpwood treeDead tree
Pulpwood tree
Sawtimber tree
Q3802 Check
30
Varietal Q3802: 36% more Sawtimber
Volume than 2nd
Gen OP
31
MCP® Case Study:
Pigeon Pond
Age 16
Loblolly Pine
32
Why this case study is important
ArborGen Confidential
• Age 16: Oldest MCP trial
& with relevant genetics
• Block plots for operational
results
• Operationally thinned
• Early results are predictive of
Age 16
33
“Pigeon Pond”
A case study for MCP®
• Study Objectives: Compare loblolly MCP®
families to operational OP
• Design: Randomized complete block with five
families (2 MCP®, 3 OP) and four blocks
• MCP: MCP-22, MCP-29
• OP: OP-175, OP-373, OP-769
• 4 Replications: Plot size from 0.1018 to 0.1198 ac,
64 to 72 measurement trees
• Location/Establishment: Berkley County, SC: 1998
Border Rows
4 5 12 13 20 21 28 29 36 37 44 45 52 53 60 61 68 69
3 6 11 14 19 22 27 B4 Plot 3
2 7 10 15 18 23 26 AGM-22
1 8 9 16 17 24 25 32 33 40 41 48 49 56 57 MCP
8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26
6 11 22 27 B4 Plot 2 6 11 22 27 B4 Plot 4
5 12 21 28 AGM-29 5 12 21 28 AG-175
4 13 20 29 MCP 4 13 20 29 OP
3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30
2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31
1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26
6 11 22 27 B4 Plot 5 6 11 22 27 B4 Plot 1
5 12 21 28 AG-769 5 12 21 28 AG-373
4 13 20 29 OP 4 13 20 29 OP
3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30
2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31
1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26
6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 4 6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 1
5 12 21 28 AG-175 5 12 21 28 AG-373
4 13 20 29 OP 4 13 20 29 OP
3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30
2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31
1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26
6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 3 6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 5
5 12 21 28 AGM-22 5 12 21 28 AG-769
4 13 20 29 MCP 4 13 20 29 OP
3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30
2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31
1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26
6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 2 6 11 22 27 B2 Plot 1
5 12 21 28 AGM-29 5 12 21 28 AG-373
4 13 20 29 MCP 4 13 20 29 OP
3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30
2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31
1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
18 19 54 55 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
17 20 7 10 23 26
16 21 6 11 22 27 B2 Plot 3
15 22 5 12 21 28 AGM-22
14 23 4 13 20 29 MCP
13 3 14 19 30
12 2 15 18 31
11 B2 Plot 2 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
10 AGM-29
9 MCP
8 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
7 7 10 23 26
6 6 11 22 27 B2 Plot 5
5 5 12 21 28 AG-769
4 4 13 20 29 OP
3 3 14 19 30
2 2 15 18 31
1 36 37 72 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26
6 11 22 27 B2 Plot 4 6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 1
5 12 21 28 AG-175 5 12 21 28 AG-373
4 13 20 29 OP 4 13 20 29 OP
3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30
2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31
1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26
6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 5 6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 2
5 12 21 28 AG-769 5 12 21 28 AGM-29
4 13 20 29 OP 4 13 20 29 MCP
3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30
2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31
1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57
7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26
6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 3 6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 4
5 12 21 28 AGM-22 5 12 21 28 AG-175
4 13 20 29 MPC 4 13 20 29 OP
3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30
2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31
1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
34
SawTimber Potential (CNS+ST), %
Field trials at year 16
Genotype
STP STP STP
Before Thinning Yr. 12 Yr. 16
AG-373 53% 82% 89%
AG-769 66% 82% 95%
AG-175 58% 72% 94%
AGM-22 80% 91% 93%
AGM-29 83% 93% 93%
35
MCP® AGM 22
Age 16: 70ft avg. height; 93% STP
36
AGM 22 has 52.4% more tons per acre
than OP at age 16
Parameter MCP-22 OP-373
DBH 11.1 10.5
Gain* 5.6% Check
HT 70.5 64.6
Gain* 9.2% Check
BA/ac 85.6 61.8
Gain* 38.4% Check
GWob/ac 78.3 51.4
Gain* 52.4% Check
GWob/tree 0.62 0.49
Gain* 26.2% Check
* Genotype gain over the check: OP-373
37
MCP Case Study
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
38ArborGen Confidential
MCP Family Doubles Value
TMS: 1-Year Moving Average
$435/ac
$546/ac
$788/ac $773/ac
$952/ac
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
AG-373 AG-175 AG-769 AGM-29 AGM-22
BLV($/ac)
39ArborGen Confidential
MCP: 59% More Revenue Through
Volume and Quality: Spend $80 to Earn $1,200
$/ac @ Yr. 16
40
MCP® & Varietal Adoption
NCSU MCP Survey: 80 Million MCP/CMP in 2014
Total Adoption: 405 M seedlings on 800,000 acres; 40% is from ArborGen
41
Summary
• Markets are difficult now, but long term trends will improve
forestry economics
• That being said, in an increasingly competitive world,
quantitative, long term thinking and analysis is becoming key
• Technology has already driven large increases in productivity,
genetics is the next major driver
• MCP and varietal products are proven, available and offer
step changes in value to the land owner and industry
ArborGen Confidential
42
Conclusions
• Elite Genetics such as MCP and Varietals are important
timberland investment tools
• Trend in U.S. is MCP and Varietals with 1,000,000 acres
planted
• Age 16 MCP case study validates yield and financial
predictions from young data
• For additional cost of $60 - $80/ac
• 50 – 60% more revenue
• 100 – 150% more BLV
• 14 – 19%IRR
ArborGen Confidential
QUESTIONS?

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Andrew Baum - ArborGen President and CEO

  • 1. ArborGen Confidential A Look Forward The Next 70 Years Arkansas Forestry Association Meeting October 7, 2015
  • 2. 2 Topics • ArborGen Overview • Looking Ahead – The Next 70 Years • Elite Genetics • MCP Case Study ArborGen Confidential
  • 3. 3 ArborGen: Global Leader in Tree Improvement and Seedling Production ArborGen Confidential Ridgeville, SC – Global HQ Whakatane, NZ – Australasia HQ Campinas, SP, BR – S. America HQ Americas • 285MM in Sales • ~1/3 of SE Pine Market • 50% of MCP Market • 100% of Varietal Market Australasia • 22MM in Sales • ~40% of NZ Pine Market • 20% of Australian Pine Market  Leading seedling producer of over 340 million trees per year  Global operations • Southeastern U.S. • New Zealand & Australia • Brazil  Providing step-changes in tree productivity • Faster growth • Disease resistance • Improved wood quality • Biomass production
  • 4. 4 Major repository of advanced commercial pine germplasm and technology  Built on over 100 years, in the aggregate, of tree improvement research from multiple industry leaders  Further enhanced through ArborGen’s broad and strong development program  Germplasm includes over 50 distinct commercial tree species and hybrids  Catalogued over 13,500 unique varieties for two largest commercial pine species: loblolly and radiata Hammermill Papers Federal Carter Holt Harvey CellFor Champion Union Camp Fletcher Challenge
  • 6. 6 Fred C. Gragg Arkansas SuperTree Nursery • First crop of 1980 • Has produced 1.7 billion pine seedlings and 47 million hardwood seedlings • Enough for a more than 3.5 million acres of Arkansas forests • Services the entire industry, from the smallest landowner to the largest institution ArborGen Confidential
  • 7. 7 Deforestation Native forest are being converted to agricultural and other uses decreasing wood availability Consumption Global population expanding Increasing consumption in the developing world A Growing Wood Supply-Demand Gap is Driving the Need for Increasingly Productive Plantation Forests 2000 – 6 Billion 2050 – 9 Billion World Population 18 million acres Or AnnualAnnual GlobalGlobal DeforestationDeforestation Forestry genetics will be a key element in addressing this gap
  • 8. 8 Today, forestry is: • One-third of the United States land – 751 million acres. • Privately-owned forests supply 91 percent of the wood harvested in the U.S. • More than 56 percent of U.S. forests privately owned, much of it by family forest owners who manage their lands to provide value to future generations. • Harder than ever to get good return on forestry assets ArborGen Confidential
  • 9. 9 70 Years of Pine Yield Drivers Genetics….The Last Frontier 0 50 100 150 200 250 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Establishment period Volumeatharvest(tons/acre) Clonal and biotechnology Tree improvement Weed control Fertilization Site preparation Planting Natural stand Adapted from Fox, T.R., E.J. Jokela, and H.L. Allen, 2004
  • 10. 10 Genetics is at the Forefront of Driving Increases in Forestry Productivity • Loblolly pine product genetics are where the Ag. Industry was some 60 years ago – for forestry the time between rotations has slowed the advance of new genetics • MCP and Varietals are here now and will do for pine what hybrids did for corn ArborGen Confidential Current stage of US pine seedling market Double-Cross Hybrids Single-Cross Hybrids Open-Pollinated GE Next stage of US pine seedling market 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 50 100 0 150 CornYield(bushels/acre) Open Pollinated Next Generation The “Ag-Forestry” Productivity Parallel
  • 11. 11 What will Produce the Highest Return for Arkansas Landowners Today? • Improving productivity in planted forests • Site preparation • Weed control • Nutrition • Improved tree form (STP) • Improved genetics for plantation forestry ArborGen Confidential It is becoming increasingly important to take a comprehensive, quantitative view of forestry management practices and decisions.
  • 12. 12 Biologic Returns Driven by Genetics + Forest Management ArborGen Confidential Machine Planting Competing Vegetation Control
  • 13. 13 One Year Old Stand on the Productivity Launch Pad • Top Asset Managers Utilize: • Best genetics • Site preparation • Vegetation control • Fertilization • Information & decision support technology ArborGen Confidential
  • 14. 14 Genetics Options for Reforestation Today • Seed Orchard Mix • 10 to 20 improved mother trees • Lowest gain and cost • Open Pollinated: Half-Sib Families • Single improved mother tree • Better gain and slight cost increase • Mass Controlled Pollination: Full-Sib Families • Best mother and father trees • Higher gain and higher cost • Varietals: Best Single Genotype from the Best Full-Sib Crosses • Single genotype • Highest gain and highest cost ArborGen Confidential
  • 16. 16 Plantation Forest Management Starts with Genetics & Nurseries U.S. South: 1 Billion Southern Yellow Pine Seedlings Per Year Bareroot Nursery Containerized Nursery
  • 17. 17 Mass Control Pollination (MCP®) • Similar to Hybrid Corn • Genetic potential of the pollen parent is added to the genetic potential of the mother + Elite Mother Elite Father
  • 18. 18ArborGen Confidential -20 0 20 40 60 80 Volume Gain % 0 20 40 60 80 100 Rust Infection Rate -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Straightness Gain 0 20 40 60 80 100 Fork Rate AG-89 AG-89 is a powerful parent for MCP production Selecting Elite Parents for MCP Hybrids Distribution of Ratings for Coastal Parents
  • 20. 20 Varietals: Production Overview Produce Plantable Germinants Grow Plantable Germinants into Miniplugs Grow Miniplugs into Finished Seedlings ArborGen Lab Ridgeville, SC Miniplug Greenhouses Ridgeville, SC Process completed in 12 to 18 Months Bare Root and Containerized Nurseries
  • 21. 21 MCP Family • AGM 22 at Age 16 • Superb Growth • Excellent Log Quality ArborGen Confidential
  • 22. 22ArborGen Confidential Varietal Age 9: LA Varietal Age 8: NC
  • 23. 23 MCP & Varietal Genetics Value Drivers • Volume Growth • Higher Sawtimber Potential (STP) • Straightness • Forking Reduction • Rust Resistance • Volume x Quality = $$$ • A New System for Reforestation • Higher STP • Fewer TPA ArborGen Confidential
  • 24. 24 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 D 0 1 1 D 1 D 1 1 D 1 1 0 0 1 D 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 D 0 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 D 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 D 0 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 D D 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 D D 0 1 1 D D 1 0 1 D 1 1 0 D 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 D 0 1 D 1 D 1 1 D D 1 0 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D D 0 D 1 D D 1 0 0 0 D D 1 0 1 1 0 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 D D 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 D 1 0 1 D 0 0 0 D 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 D D 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 1 1 D 1 D 1 1 D D 1 D 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 D 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 D 1 1 D 1 D 1 D 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 D 0 D 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 0 1 D D 0 D 0 1 1 D D 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 D 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 D 0 0 1 1 D 1 D D 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 D 0 1 1 1 1 D 0 0 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 D 1 1 1 0 0 1 D 0 0 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 1 D 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 D 0 1 D 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 D 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 D 0 1 D 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 D 0 D 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 D D 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 D 1 D 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 D 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 D 1 D 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 D 0 1 1 1 D D 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 D D 1 D 1 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 0 0 D 0 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 D 0 0 1 1 D 0 D 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 D Open Pollinated Stands: Defect Map 9 locations (NC, SC, GA, FL, TX), 7 families, 950 trees, ages 5-9 1 STP tree 0 Non-STP tree D Dead
  • 25. 25 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 D D 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D D 1 1 D D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D D D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 D D 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 D D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 1 D 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 D 1 1 1 1 Varietal Stands: Defect Map 9 locations (NC, SC, GA, FL, TX), 4 varieties, 1034 rees, ages 5-9 1 STP tree 0 Non-STP tree D Dead
  • 26. 26 Varietal Q3802: Age 6 Deltic Timber
  • 27. 27 Height Growth: Q3802 and 2nd Gen OP Check Deltic Timber Junction City, LA
  • 28. 28 Parameter Q3802 2nd Gen % Change STP (%) 100 77 29.9 Crooked (%) 2 14 -12 Forked (%) 2 19 -17 Stem Rust (%) 0 13 -13 Suppressed (%) 0 3 -3 Sawtimber Potential (STP) Age 10 Q3802: 100% of trees can become sawtimber
  • 29. 29 Spatial Distribution of Stem defects Q3802 and 2nd Gen OP Deltic Timber Junction City, LA x 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 x 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 x 2 2 2 1 2 x 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 x 1 2 3 2 2 3 x 2 x x x 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 x 3 x 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 1 x 1 3 x x 1 2 x 2 1 4 1 2 1 1 1 2 x 1 1 1=sawtimber tree no defects 2=sawtimber tree with minor defect 3=pulpwood tree major defect 4=small-suppressed pulpwood treeDead tree Pulpwood tree Sawtimber tree Q3802 Check
  • 30. 30 Varietal Q3802: 36% more Sawtimber Volume than 2nd Gen OP
  • 31. 31 MCP® Case Study: Pigeon Pond Age 16 Loblolly Pine
  • 32. 32 Why this case study is important ArborGen Confidential • Age 16: Oldest MCP trial & with relevant genetics • Block plots for operational results • Operationally thinned • Early results are predictive of Age 16
  • 33. 33 “Pigeon Pond” A case study for MCP® • Study Objectives: Compare loblolly MCP® families to operational OP • Design: Randomized complete block with five families (2 MCP®, 3 OP) and four blocks • MCP: MCP-22, MCP-29 • OP: OP-175, OP-373, OP-769 • 4 Replications: Plot size from 0.1018 to 0.1198 ac, 64 to 72 measurement trees • Location/Establishment: Berkley County, SC: 1998 Border Rows 4 5 12 13 20 21 28 29 36 37 44 45 52 53 60 61 68 69 3 6 11 14 19 22 27 B4 Plot 3 2 7 10 15 18 23 26 AGM-22 1 8 9 16 17 24 25 32 33 40 41 48 49 56 57 MCP 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26 6 11 22 27 B4 Plot 2 6 11 22 27 B4 Plot 4 5 12 21 28 AGM-29 5 12 21 28 AG-175 4 13 20 29 MCP 4 13 20 29 OP 3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30 2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26 6 11 22 27 B4 Plot 5 6 11 22 27 B4 Plot 1 5 12 21 28 AG-769 5 12 21 28 AG-373 4 13 20 29 OP 4 13 20 29 OP 3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30 2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26 6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 4 6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 1 5 12 21 28 AG-175 5 12 21 28 AG-373 4 13 20 29 OP 4 13 20 29 OP 3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30 2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26 6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 3 6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 5 5 12 21 28 AGM-22 5 12 21 28 AG-769 4 13 20 29 MCP 4 13 20 29 OP 3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30 2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26 6 11 22 27 B3 Plot 2 6 11 22 27 B2 Plot 1 5 12 21 28 AGM-29 5 12 21 28 AG-373 4 13 20 29 MCP 4 13 20 29 OP 3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30 2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 18 19 54 55 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 17 20 7 10 23 26 16 21 6 11 22 27 B2 Plot 3 15 22 5 12 21 28 AGM-22 14 23 4 13 20 29 MCP 13 3 14 19 30 12 2 15 18 31 11 B2 Plot 2 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 10 AGM-29 9 MCP 8 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 7 7 10 23 26 6 6 11 22 27 B2 Plot 5 5 5 12 21 28 AG-769 4 4 13 20 29 OP 3 3 14 19 30 2 2 15 18 31 1 36 37 72 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26 6 11 22 27 B2 Plot 4 6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 1 5 12 21 28 AG-175 5 12 21 28 AG-373 4 13 20 29 OP 4 13 20 29 OP 3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30 2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26 6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 5 6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 2 5 12 21 28 AG-769 5 12 21 28 AGM-29 4 13 20 29 OP 4 13 20 29 MCP 3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30 2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 8 9 24 25 40 41 56 57 7 10 23 26 7 10 23 26 6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 3 6 11 22 27 B1 Plot 4 5 12 21 28 AGM-22 5 12 21 28 AG-175 4 13 20 29 MPC 4 13 20 29 OP 3 14 19 30 3 14 19 30 2 15 18 31 2 15 18 31 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64 1 16 17 32 33 48 49 64
  • 34. 34 SawTimber Potential (CNS+ST), % Field trials at year 16 Genotype STP STP STP Before Thinning Yr. 12 Yr. 16 AG-373 53% 82% 89% AG-769 66% 82% 95% AG-175 58% 72% 94% AGM-22 80% 91% 93% AGM-29 83% 93% 93%
  • 35. 35 MCP® AGM 22 Age 16: 70ft avg. height; 93% STP
  • 36. 36 AGM 22 has 52.4% more tons per acre than OP at age 16 Parameter MCP-22 OP-373 DBH 11.1 10.5 Gain* 5.6% Check HT 70.5 64.6 Gain* 9.2% Check BA/ac 85.6 61.8 Gain* 38.4% Check GWob/ac 78.3 51.4 Gain* 52.4% Check GWob/tree 0.62 0.49 Gain* 26.2% Check * Genotype gain over the check: OP-373
  • 37. 37 MCP Case Study Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
  • 38. 38ArborGen Confidential MCP Family Doubles Value TMS: 1-Year Moving Average $435/ac $546/ac $788/ac $773/ac $952/ac 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 AG-373 AG-175 AG-769 AGM-29 AGM-22 BLV($/ac)
  • 39. 39ArborGen Confidential MCP: 59% More Revenue Through Volume and Quality: Spend $80 to Earn $1,200 $/ac @ Yr. 16
  • 40. 40 MCP® & Varietal Adoption NCSU MCP Survey: 80 Million MCP/CMP in 2014 Total Adoption: 405 M seedlings on 800,000 acres; 40% is from ArborGen
  • 41. 41 Summary • Markets are difficult now, but long term trends will improve forestry economics • That being said, in an increasingly competitive world, quantitative, long term thinking and analysis is becoming key • Technology has already driven large increases in productivity, genetics is the next major driver • MCP and varietal products are proven, available and offer step changes in value to the land owner and industry ArborGen Confidential
  • 42. 42 Conclusions • Elite Genetics such as MCP and Varietals are important timberland investment tools • Trend in U.S. is MCP and Varietals with 1,000,000 acres planted • Age 16 MCP case study validates yield and financial predictions from young data • For additional cost of $60 - $80/ac • 50 – 60% more revenue • 100 – 150% more BLV • 14 – 19%IRR ArborGen Confidential QUESTIONS?