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Micah 5:2
New International Version (NIV)
2 “But you, Bethlehem Ephrathah,
though you are small among the clans[a] of Judah,
out of you will come for me
one who will be ruler over Israel,
whose origins are from of old,
from ancient times.”
Malachi 3:1
New International Version (NIV)
3 “I will send my messenger, who will prepare the way before
me. Then suddenly the Lord you are seeking will come to his
temple; the messenger of the covenant, whom you desire, will
come,” says the Lord Almighty.
Zechariah 9:9
New International Version (NIV)
The Coming of Zion’s King
9 Rejoice greatly, Daughter Zion!
Shout, Daughter Jerusalem!
See, your king comes to you,
righteous and victorious,
lowly and riding on a donkey,
on a colt, the foal of a donkey.
Psalm 41:9
New International Version (NIV)
9 Even my close friend,
someone I trusted,
one who shared my bread,
has turned[a] against me.
Zechariah 11:12
New International Version (NIV)
12 I told them, “If you think it best, give me my pay; but if not,
keep it.” So they paid me thirty pieces of silver.
Zechariah 11:13
New International Version (NIV)
13 And the Lord said to me, “Throw it to the potter”—the
handsome price at which they valued me! So I took the thirty
pieces of silver and threw them to the potter at the house of the
Lord.
Isaiah 53:7
New International Version (NIV)
7 He was oppressed and afflicted,
yet he did not open his mouth;
he was led like a lamb to the slaughter,
and as a sheep before its shearers is silent,
so he did not open his mouth.
Psalm 22:16
New International Version (NIV)
16 Dogs surround me,
a pack of villains encircles me;
they pierce[a] my hands and my feet.
Matthew 2:4-6
New International Version (NIV)
4 When he had called together all the people’s chief priests and
teachers of the law, he asked them where the Messiah was to be
born. 5 “In Bethlehem in Judea,” they replied, “for this is what
the prophet has written:
6 “‘But you, Bethlehem, in the land of Judah,
are by no means least among the rulers of Judah;
for out of you will come a ruler
who will shepherd my people Israel.’[a]”
Mark 1:2-8
New International Version (NIV)
2 as it is written in Isaiah the prophet:
“I will send my messenger ahead of you,
who will prepare your way”[a]—
3 “a voice of one calling in the wilderness,
‘Prepare the way for the Lord,
make straight paths for him.’”[b]
4 And so John the Baptist appeared in the wilderness, preaching
a baptism of repentance for the forgiveness of sins. 5 The whole
Judean countryside and all the people of Jerusalem went out to
him. Confessing their sins, they were baptized by him in the
Jordan River. 6 John wore clothing made of camel’s hair, with a
leather belt around his waist, and he ate locusts and wild honey.
7 And this was his message: “After me comes the one more
powerful than I, the straps of whose sandals I am not worthy to
stoop down and untie. 8 I baptize you with[c] water, but he will
baptize you with[d] the Holy Spirit.”
Matthew 21:4-11
New International Version (NIV)
4 This took place to fulfill what was spoken through the
prophet:
5 “Say to Daughter Zion,
‘See, your king comes to you,
gentle and riding on a donkey,
and on a colt, the foal of a donkey.’”[a]
6 The disciples went and did as Jesus had instructed them. 7
They brought the donkey and the colt and placed their cloaks on
them for Jesus to sit on. 8 A very large crowd spread their
cloaks on the road, while others cut branches from the trees and
spread them on the road. 9 The crowds that went ahead of him
and those that followed shouted,
“Hosanna[b] to the Son of David!”
“Blessed is he who comes in the name of the Lord!”[c]
“Hosanna[d] in the highest heaven!”
10 When Jesus entered Jerusalem, the whole city was stirred
and asked, “Who is this?”
11 The crowds answered, “This is Jesus, the prophet from
Nazareth in Galilee.”
Luke 22:21
New International Version (NIV)
21 But the hand of him who is going to betray me is with mine
on the table.
Matthew 26:15
New International Version (NIV)
15 and asked, “What are you willing to give me if I deliver him
over to you?” So they counted out for him thirty pieces of
silver.
Matthew 27:3-10
New International Version (NIV)
3 When Judas, who had betrayed him, saw that Jesus was
condemned, he was seized with remorse and returned the thirty
pieces of silver to the chief priests and the elders. 4 “I have
sinned,” he said, “for I have betrayed innocent blood.”
“What is that to us?” they replied. “That’s your responsibility.”
5 So Judas threw the money into the temple and left. Then he
went away and hanged himself.
6 The chief priests picked up the coins and said, “It is against
the law to put this into the treasury, since it is blood money.” 7
So they decided to use the money to buy the potter’s field as a
burial place for foreigners. 8 That is why it has been called the
Field of Blood to this day. 9 Then what was spoken by Jeremiah
the prophet was fulfilled: “They took the thirty pieces of silver,
the price set on him by the people of Israel, 10 and they used
them to buy the potter’s field, as the Lord commanded me.”[a]
Mark 14:60-61
New International Version (NIV)
60 Then the high priest stood up before them and asked Jesus,
“Are you not going to answer? What is this testimony that these
men are bringing against you?” 61 But Jesus remained silent
and gave no answer.
Again the high priest asked him, “Are you the Messiah, the Son
of the Blessed One?”
John 19:17-18
New International Version (NIV)
17 Carrying his own cross, he went out to the place of the Skull
(which in Aramaic is called Golgotha). 18 There they crucified
him, and with him two others—one on each side and Jesus in
the middle.
MATH 201
Discussion Board Forum 2: Project 4 Instructions
When performing a hypothesis test, you must make an
assumption in order to perform it. Assume that the hypothesis
you are testing (the null hypothesis) is true. This assumption
allows you to calculate the probability of the test results. You
then use that probability to decide whether or not to accept the
hypothesis and the claim associated with it. The more likely the
results, the more readily you accept the hypothesis.
This kind of analysis can be used to evaluate any idea for which
there are enough facts or data. For example, what about the
premise that Jesus is the Son of God? Josh McDowell takes a
similar approach to answering this question in his book,
Evidence That Demands a Verdict (Campus Crusade for Christ,
1972).
In his book, McDowell collects a variety of information that
attests to the Bible’s validity and Jesus’ claims to being the Son
of God. He includes the interesting results of a large volume of
research. In the section about messianic prophecy, he quotes the
probabilistic analysis of Peter Stoner in Science Speaks (Moody
Press, 1963).
Stoner used the assumption that Jesus was just a man and not
the Son of God to perform a probability analysis and hypothesis
test on some messianic prophecies. In this case the hypothesis
was that Jesus was not the foretold Messiah or the Son of God.
He then examined the probability of a selection of prophecies
coming true if Jesus was in fact not divine.
Using a selection of 8 prophecies, Stoner showed that the
probability of all 8 prophecies being fulfilled is 1 in 1017.
Using the language of hypothesis tests, this means that you
would reject the hypothesis that Jesus is not the Messiah for any
α > 10-17. To put it another way, α > 0.00000000000000001.
The smallest α that is normally used for a hypothesis test is α =
0.01. This means that you can safely reject the hypothesis that
Jesus is not the Messiah or the Son of God.
For more on this, I recommend Josh McDowell’s book Evidence
That Demands a Verdict. Peter Stoner’s work can be found in
Science Speaks, published by Moody press. Stoner’s book might
be difficult to find, but McDowell’s book, Evidence That
Demands a Verdict is still in print.
The references for the 8 Old Testament prophecies that Peter
Stoner analyzed are listed below along with the verse references
for their fulfillment. It is likely that most students in this course
believe that Jesus Christ is divine, so listing probabilities of
Him doing certain things is irrelevant. However, what Stone is
doing is playing the devil’s advocate. He’s saying to the
skeptical, “Okay, let’s have it your way for a second. If Jesus of
Nazareth was just an ordinary man, what is the probability that
he could fulfill all the prophecies by chance?”
Old Testament Prophecies New Testament Fulfillment
Micah 5:2 Matthew 2:4-6
Malachi 3:1 Mark 1:2-8
Zechariah 9:9 Matthew 21:4-11
Pslams 41:9 Luke 22:21
Zechariah 11:12 Matthew 26:15
Zechariah 11:13 Matthew 27:3-10
Isaiah 53:7 Mark 14: 60-61
Psalms 22:16 John 19:17-18
In Discussion Board Forum 2, post a thread that includes the
following:
1. Think more about the probability of each event. For example,
what is the chance that a person born in Israel would be born in
or be from Bethlehem? What would the probability be that a
person would be crucified in Israel given that he lived in that
time period? Put numbers on each of the eight prophecy
fulfillments. Some of the probabilities will be subjective, but
put values that you feel make sense and write a short
justification for the value you picked. For example, if one of the
prophecies said that the Messiah would come from the house of
Judah, you could say that the probability is 1/12, since there
were 12 tribes. Do not put probabilities of 0 or 1. You can get
closer than you might think—Google can tell you what the
population of Israel was in the days or Christ, for example. The
important thing is to write down your justification as to why
you assigned the probabilities you did to each prophecy.
2. Choose one of the eight prophecies in Stoner’s research.
Explain how he might have arrived at the probability he
assigned. Do you think his estimated probability is too
high(conservative) or too low? What probability would you
assign and why?
3. Given the new probabilities you associated with each
prophecy, what is the probability that all eight happened at
once? Show your work.
4. Reflecion Question: Do you think it is possible that someone
other than Jesus could have fulfilled the prophecies of the
Bible? Why do some religious groups claim to believe the
Bible, but reject Jesus as the Messiah?
Submit your thread of least 100 words by 11:59 p.m. (ET) on
Friday of Module/Week 7. Submit your 2 replies of at least 25
words each by 11:59 p.m. (ET) on Monday of Module/Week 7.
Feel free to consult with the instructor for help with this
project. However, each student must turn in his/her own work.
Page 1 of 2

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  • 1. Micah 5:2 New International Version (NIV) 2 “But you, Bethlehem Ephrathah, though you are small among the clans[a] of Judah, out of you will come for me one who will be ruler over Israel, whose origins are from of old, from ancient times.” Malachi 3:1 New International Version (NIV) 3 “I will send my messenger, who will prepare the way before me. Then suddenly the Lord you are seeking will come to his temple; the messenger of the covenant, whom you desire, will come,” says the Lord Almighty. Zechariah 9:9 New International Version (NIV) The Coming of Zion’s King 9 Rejoice greatly, Daughter Zion! Shout, Daughter Jerusalem! See, your king comes to you, righteous and victorious, lowly and riding on a donkey, on a colt, the foal of a donkey. Psalm 41:9 New International Version (NIV) 9 Even my close friend, someone I trusted, one who shared my bread, has turned[a] against me.
  • 2. Zechariah 11:12 New International Version (NIV) 12 I told them, “If you think it best, give me my pay; but if not, keep it.” So they paid me thirty pieces of silver. Zechariah 11:13 New International Version (NIV) 13 And the Lord said to me, “Throw it to the potter”—the handsome price at which they valued me! So I took the thirty pieces of silver and threw them to the potter at the house of the Lord. Isaiah 53:7 New International Version (NIV) 7 He was oppressed and afflicted, yet he did not open his mouth; he was led like a lamb to the slaughter, and as a sheep before its shearers is silent, so he did not open his mouth. Psalm 22:16 New International Version (NIV) 16 Dogs surround me, a pack of villains encircles me; they pierce[a] my hands and my feet. Matthew 2:4-6 New International Version (NIV) 4 When he had called together all the people’s chief priests and teachers of the law, he asked them where the Messiah was to be born. 5 “In Bethlehem in Judea,” they replied, “for this is what the prophet has written: 6 “‘But you, Bethlehem, in the land of Judah, are by no means least among the rulers of Judah; for out of you will come a ruler who will shepherd my people Israel.’[a]”
  • 3. Mark 1:2-8 New International Version (NIV) 2 as it is written in Isaiah the prophet: “I will send my messenger ahead of you, who will prepare your way”[a]— 3 “a voice of one calling in the wilderness, ‘Prepare the way for the Lord, make straight paths for him.’”[b] 4 And so John the Baptist appeared in the wilderness, preaching a baptism of repentance for the forgiveness of sins. 5 The whole Judean countryside and all the people of Jerusalem went out to him. Confessing their sins, they were baptized by him in the Jordan River. 6 John wore clothing made of camel’s hair, with a leather belt around his waist, and he ate locusts and wild honey. 7 And this was his message: “After me comes the one more powerful than I, the straps of whose sandals I am not worthy to stoop down and untie. 8 I baptize you with[c] water, but he will baptize you with[d] the Holy Spirit.” Matthew 21:4-11 New International Version (NIV) 4 This took place to fulfill what was spoken through the prophet: 5 “Say to Daughter Zion, ‘See, your king comes to you, gentle and riding on a donkey, and on a colt, the foal of a donkey.’”[a] 6 The disciples went and did as Jesus had instructed them. 7 They brought the donkey and the colt and placed their cloaks on them for Jesus to sit on. 8 A very large crowd spread their cloaks on the road, while others cut branches from the trees and spread them on the road. 9 The crowds that went ahead of him and those that followed shouted, “Hosanna[b] to the Son of David!” “Blessed is he who comes in the name of the Lord!”[c]
  • 4. “Hosanna[d] in the highest heaven!” 10 When Jesus entered Jerusalem, the whole city was stirred and asked, “Who is this?” 11 The crowds answered, “This is Jesus, the prophet from Nazareth in Galilee.” Luke 22:21 New International Version (NIV) 21 But the hand of him who is going to betray me is with mine on the table. Matthew 26:15 New International Version (NIV) 15 and asked, “What are you willing to give me if I deliver him over to you?” So they counted out for him thirty pieces of silver. Matthew 27:3-10 New International Version (NIV) 3 When Judas, who had betrayed him, saw that Jesus was condemned, he was seized with remorse and returned the thirty pieces of silver to the chief priests and the elders. 4 “I have sinned,” he said, “for I have betrayed innocent blood.” “What is that to us?” they replied. “That’s your responsibility.” 5 So Judas threw the money into the temple and left. Then he went away and hanged himself. 6 The chief priests picked up the coins and said, “It is against the law to put this into the treasury, since it is blood money.” 7 So they decided to use the money to buy the potter’s field as a burial place for foreigners. 8 That is why it has been called the Field of Blood to this day. 9 Then what was spoken by Jeremiah the prophet was fulfilled: “They took the thirty pieces of silver, the price set on him by the people of Israel, 10 and they used them to buy the potter’s field, as the Lord commanded me.”[a] Mark 14:60-61
  • 5. New International Version (NIV) 60 Then the high priest stood up before them and asked Jesus, “Are you not going to answer? What is this testimony that these men are bringing against you?” 61 But Jesus remained silent and gave no answer. Again the high priest asked him, “Are you the Messiah, the Son of the Blessed One?” John 19:17-18 New International Version (NIV) 17 Carrying his own cross, he went out to the place of the Skull (which in Aramaic is called Golgotha). 18 There they crucified him, and with him two others—one on each side and Jesus in the middle. MATH 201 Discussion Board Forum 2: Project 4 Instructions When performing a hypothesis test, you must make an assumption in order to perform it. Assume that the hypothesis you are testing (the null hypothesis) is true. This assumption allows you to calculate the probability of the test results. You then use that probability to decide whether or not to accept the hypothesis and the claim associated with it. The more likely the results, the more readily you accept the hypothesis. This kind of analysis can be used to evaluate any idea for which there are enough facts or data. For example, what about the premise that Jesus is the Son of God? Josh McDowell takes a similar approach to answering this question in his book, Evidence That Demands a Verdict (Campus Crusade for Christ, 1972). In his book, McDowell collects a variety of information that attests to the Bible’s validity and Jesus’ claims to being the Son
  • 6. of God. He includes the interesting results of a large volume of research. In the section about messianic prophecy, he quotes the probabilistic analysis of Peter Stoner in Science Speaks (Moody Press, 1963). Stoner used the assumption that Jesus was just a man and not the Son of God to perform a probability analysis and hypothesis test on some messianic prophecies. In this case the hypothesis was that Jesus was not the foretold Messiah or the Son of God. He then examined the probability of a selection of prophecies coming true if Jesus was in fact not divine. Using a selection of 8 prophecies, Stoner showed that the probability of all 8 prophecies being fulfilled is 1 in 1017. Using the language of hypothesis tests, this means that you would reject the hypothesis that Jesus is not the Messiah for any α > 10-17. To put it another way, α > 0.00000000000000001. The smallest α that is normally used for a hypothesis test is α = 0.01. This means that you can safely reject the hypothesis that Jesus is not the Messiah or the Son of God. For more on this, I recommend Josh McDowell’s book Evidence That Demands a Verdict. Peter Stoner’s work can be found in Science Speaks, published by Moody press. Stoner’s book might be difficult to find, but McDowell’s book, Evidence That Demands a Verdict is still in print. The references for the 8 Old Testament prophecies that Peter Stoner analyzed are listed below along with the verse references for their fulfillment. It is likely that most students in this course believe that Jesus Christ is divine, so listing probabilities of Him doing certain things is irrelevant. However, what Stone is doing is playing the devil’s advocate. He’s saying to the skeptical, “Okay, let’s have it your way for a second. If Jesus of Nazareth was just an ordinary man, what is the probability that he could fulfill all the prophecies by chance?” Old Testament Prophecies New Testament Fulfillment Micah 5:2 Matthew 2:4-6 Malachi 3:1 Mark 1:2-8 Zechariah 9:9 Matthew 21:4-11
  • 7. Pslams 41:9 Luke 22:21 Zechariah 11:12 Matthew 26:15 Zechariah 11:13 Matthew 27:3-10 Isaiah 53:7 Mark 14: 60-61 Psalms 22:16 John 19:17-18 In Discussion Board Forum 2, post a thread that includes the following: 1. Think more about the probability of each event. For example, what is the chance that a person born in Israel would be born in or be from Bethlehem? What would the probability be that a person would be crucified in Israel given that he lived in that time period? Put numbers on each of the eight prophecy fulfillments. Some of the probabilities will be subjective, but put values that you feel make sense and write a short justification for the value you picked. For example, if one of the prophecies said that the Messiah would come from the house of Judah, you could say that the probability is 1/12, since there were 12 tribes. Do not put probabilities of 0 or 1. You can get closer than you might think—Google can tell you what the population of Israel was in the days or Christ, for example. The important thing is to write down your justification as to why you assigned the probabilities you did to each prophecy. 2. Choose one of the eight prophecies in Stoner’s research. Explain how he might have arrived at the probability he assigned. Do you think his estimated probability is too high(conservative) or too low? What probability would you assign and why? 3. Given the new probabilities you associated with each prophecy, what is the probability that all eight happened at once? Show your work. 4. Reflecion Question: Do you think it is possible that someone other than Jesus could have fulfilled the prophecies of the Bible? Why do some religious groups claim to believe the
  • 8. Bible, but reject Jesus as the Messiah? Submit your thread of least 100 words by 11:59 p.m. (ET) on Friday of Module/Week 7. Submit your 2 replies of at least 25 words each by 11:59 p.m. (ET) on Monday of Module/Week 7. Feel free to consult with the instructor for help with this project. However, each student must turn in his/her own work. Page 1 of 2