Opening keynote at international conference on agricultural greenhouse gas GHG emissions and food security, Berlin, 10-13 September 2018 #AgriGHG

1. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Agricultural GHGs:
from a Global Research Alliance
to shared policies and practices
Andy Reisinger, Deputy Director, NZAGRC
International Conference on Agricultural GHG Emissions and Food Security, Berlin, 10-13 Sept 2018

2. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
1) How much it matters
2) Why it’s harder than we think
3) Can we do better ?

3. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Almost all scenarios limiting
warming below 2 degrees
rely on negative emissions
Slide courtesy Glen Peters, CICERO

4. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Almost all scenarios limiting
warming below 2 degrees
rely on negative emissions
Slide courtesy Glen Peters, CICERO

5. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Almost all scenarios limiting
warming below 2 degrees
rely on negative emissions
Slide courtesy Glen Peters, CICERO
Most negative emissions need land
Avoided deforestation
Afforestation/reforestation
Forest, wetland, peatland restoration
Soil carbon restoration, biochar
Bio-energy + CCS (BECCS)
Enhanced weathering of rocks
Direct air capture + CCS
Ocean iron fertilisation Smith et al (2015)
Mercator Institute

6. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Feeding more people
and sequestering carbon:
who has land to spare ?

7. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
How much is livestock
directly contributing
to global warming ?

8. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Reisinger and Clark (2017) How
much does livestock contribute to
actual warming? Global Change
Biology.
(Reisinger & Clark, 2017)

9. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
One fifth of warming:
do we put all this into
the too-hard basket ?

10. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
1) How much it matters
2) Why it’s harder than we think
3) Can we do better ?

11. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
CCAFS Infographic, based on Wollenberg et al (2017) Reducing emissions from
agriculture to meet the 2 degree target. Global Change Biology 22, 3859–3864.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
Emissionsfromagriculture(GtCO2e/yr)
Reductions in agriculture
emissions will make an
important contribution
to overall mitigation
objectives
1 Gigatonne per year
relative to our
current trajectory
Baseline
2°C scenario

12. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
A highly contested space:
• How realistic is a global carbon price of even
US$20/tCO2e on (all) agricultural GHGs?
• 1.3 billion livelihoods in livestock sector alone
• Powerful agricultural constituencies
• Land rights, governance for multiple services
• Dietary preferences and food demand
• Food self-sufficiency vs efficient trade

13. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Gerber et al (2013), Tackling
climate change through
livestock. FAO, Rome, pp133

14. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world (Gerber et al., 2011)
Increasing productivity and
resilience delivers on food security,
helps manage trade-offs with bio-
energy and constrains growth in
GHG emissions …

15. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
“Of course, there is a large caveat. A major criticism of land
sparing is that there is scant empirical evidence that agricultural
intensification actually leads to land sparing in practice.
In fact, intensification is often accompanied by further
expansion, as neighboring farmers adopt the novel practices.“
Ramankutty and Rhentulla (2012), Frontiers in Ecology

16. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world Phelps et al (2013), PNAS

17. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world Phelps et al (2013), PNAS

18. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Not technology
spares land, but how we use it:
governance matters

19. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world Aleksandrowicz et al (2016), PLOS One
Some dietary choices have significantly lower emissions

20. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world Aleksandrowicz et al (2016), PLOS One
… and would require less land

21. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Major policy challenges:
• Countervailing baseline trends
• ~ 2 billion overweight
• ~ 600 million obese
• ~ 800 million undernourished
• Political economy of targeting dietary choice
• Differential impacts of a blunt price instrument
• Trade promotes efficiency and creates risk

22. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Major policy challenges:
• Countervailing baseline trends
• ~ 2 billion overweight
• ~ 600 million obese
• ~ 800 million undernourished
• Political economy of targeting dietary choice
• Differential impacts of a blunt price instrument
• Trade promotes efficiency and creates risk

23. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Major policy challenges:
• Countervailing baseline trends
• ~ 2 billion overweight
• ~ 600 million obese
• ~ 800 million undernourished
• Political economy of targeting dietary choice
• Differential impacts of a blunt price instrument
• Trade promotes efficiency and creates risk

24. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
“global food price crises
triggered riots in more
than 40 countries, where
the cost of imported
basic goods increased,
thereby eroding real
incomes”
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (2017)

25. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Save the planet with
healthy, climate-friendly food:
a civic minefield

26. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Few developing countries have
MRV systems that can capture
the climate benefits of
changing agricultural practices
How shall I MRV thee ?

27. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Tier 1

28. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Rural development policy
Tier 1 → Tier 2

29. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
You cannot make good
policy with a blunt tool.
Sharpen MRV.

30. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
1) How much it matters
2) Why it’s harder than we think
3) Can we do better ?

31. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Who will lead: big emitters?
Source: IEA/EDGAR data for 2010 (IPCC WGIII
methodology); plotted using Chartsbin.com
Livestock non-CO2 emissions (total)

32. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Source: IEA/EDGAR data for 2010 (IPCC WGIII
methodology); plotted using Chartsbin.com
Livestock non-CO2 /
total GHG emissions
Who will lead: where agriculture matters?

33. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Policy experimentation
• Very few countries have any price incentives
• New Zealand is the only country contemplating
a cost on agricultural GHGs
• Nuanced policies could avoid many negative side-
effects of blunt price measures, but they are difficult
to implement due to lack of data and coordination
• Food sovereignty, trade and leakage concerns are
major constraints but not well understood

34. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Fellmann et al (2016) Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change

35. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
What would a parallel policy
and practice pipeline look like?
How connected is our research
with global policy and practice
challenges?
(GRA and SAI, 2016)

36. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Reduce emissions
Safeguard food security
Sequester carbon

37. Providing knowledge, technologies & practices to
grow agriculture's ability to create wealth for
New Zealand in a carbon-constrained world
Keep an eye out for / contribute to
upcoming IPCC reports:
Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (2018)
Special Report on Climate Change and Land (2019)
Disclaimer: any views expressed in this presentation are my own and
not necessarily those of NZAGRC or any other organisation mentioned
Thank you !