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The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented,Multi-Sectoral IndexTony Simons, Keith Shepherd, Tor Vagen, Ravi Prabhu,Anja Gassner...
1. Why is ATI needed?2. Current State of Play3. Evidence and Understanding4. Agriculture - alone or with what?5. Food for ...
What is our collective dream for sustainable agriculture?and in how many generations?
1. Why is ATI needed?The justification:• Agriculture is largest employer in the world• Largest single landuse in the world...
Total World GDP = $72 trillion p.a.Agriculture GDP = $4.2 trillion p.a.Economic costs of GHG emissions,loss of natural res...
Nutrient loss (%)Nutrient loss (%)Nutrient loss (%)Shifting agriculture (slash-and-burn)
OverallRankSector Region Cost toNaturalCapitalUS$ billionRevenueUS$ billionImpactRatio2 Cattle Ranching SouthAmerica312.1 ...
1. Why is ATI needed? (cont.)The competition:• International Institute for Sustainable Development recorded 894indicator i...
Unilever (since 1998)1. Unilever Sustainable Agriculture Code (2010) (based on version 1 2006)- self-assessment tool for p...
AlcoholChicken Ice-cream Pet FoodBaby Food Chocolate Jams Roots and TubersBaked Goods Dairy Products Juices ShellfishBeef ...
The ‘Sustainable Agriculture’ indicator evaluates developed anddeveloping countries support for sustainable agriculture. I...
Review of the Evidence on Indicators,Metrics and Monitoring SystemsCommissioned by the UK Department for International Dev...
103 monitoring initiatives reviewed onsustainable intensification of agriculture (ICRAF/DFID)Common Weaknesses:• Lack of c...
Purpose of MeasurementThen we studiedselected groupof 24 initiativesNone had explicit purpose to take decisions
Unit of Analysis
Frequency of Measurement
most were Quick and Dirtya few were Slow and Cleannone were Quick and CleanAcknowledgement must avoid Slow and Dirtybut li...
3. Evidence and Understanding• Focus on populations not individuals• Interventions designed on prevalence & incidence of p...
Public Health SystemsCardiovascular diseaseUtilise research that showsthree risk factors account 75% of heart diseaseSmoki...
Basic problemThere is a lack of coherentand rigorous sampling andassessment frameworksthat enable comparison ofdata (i.e. ...
Surveillance scienceLand health metricsConsistent fieldprotocolSoil spectroscopyCoupling with remotesensingPrevalence, Ris...
Soil maps generally staticCoarse resolutionDon’t reflect functional properties of the soilEthiopia soil mapGeoScience
But what does it mean?and how can we use it?10km
Soil Carbon (30m x 30m)Can guide better decisions
http://geoportal.worldagroforestry.org/
Co-locate and integrate demographic and socio-economic dataHealth Sector leads (Indepth Network)
Adjudicated under the LandAdjudication Act CAP 284 1968,intensive smallholder cultivationwith clear freehold titleTenure e...
38Overall, the economic and environmental gainsfrom secure tenure are substantial …..Impact Unadj FreeholdTenureEffectNet ...
Agricultural Intensity 1983  2013
The development trajectory of unadjudicated is40 years behind that of adjudicated land
NaturalForest4.1 billion haCropLand1.5 billion haTreePlantations0.3 billion haPasture &Rangelands3.4 billion haWetlands1.3...
NaturalForest4.1 billion haCropLand1.5 billion haPasture &Rangelands3.4 billion haWetlands1.3 billion haDeserts1.9 billion...
AgricultureForestryEnvironmentWhat is best way to optimise goals?• Productivity/Income• Sequestration/Mitigation• Reduced ...
ISSUESmall-holderFarmerLocalLevelSub-nationalDistrictNationalLevelScalefield/farm/forestplot village/watershed County/Dist...
The Landscape Approach to Development
easternwesternFort Tenan
ParticipatoryAssessment of Currentand Potential ClimateSmart PracticesAwarenessRaising, CapacityDevelopment andDemonstrati...
Linkages between adaptation and mitigationImproved carbonsink management[M] Minimizeddeforestation andforest degradation[M...
Sentinel Landscapes 2013• Data & Research Method sharingplatform to catalyze theemergence of a more coordinatedand collabo...
Open access data archive:http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/crp6/Data Management & Sharingdocuments developed• RESEARCH DATA...
Profitable agricultureSubsistence agriculture + safety netsPre-commercial agricultureSubsistence agricultureSustainable (s...
Crop rotationGrowing legume cropsGrowing cover cropsFallowing in some casesUsing animal manure (??)Proper use of pesticide...
ForecastRank (and spank)IdentifyTestTargetDesignEvaluateMonitor interventionsDescription of systems, situational analysisP...
SAI Benchmarking Report (2009)
Power of the Single Number
Measurement MagnitudeDimensions (units)Uncertainty
Required Features of ATI1. Sound conceptual framework, clarity of goals2. Broad ownership, agreed terminology, universal i...
PURPOSESSCALEGlobal National Sub-national Local1. Awareness, advocacyand transparency *** *** ** *2. Alignment Goals,Stand...
PURPOSESACTORDonors GovtsPrivateSectorNGOsCBOs FarmersPublic/Consumr1 Awareness,advocacyand transparency*** ** *** ** *2 A...
ATI Sub-indicies1. Agribusiness/Policy (BBA)2. Productivity and Nutrivity3. Profitability, ROI4. Agroecosystem Health (soi...
Indicators1. Existing and new2. Predictive and responsive3. Quantitative, qualitative (relative/filter)4. Direct and proxy...
ATI – the most promising initiative
ATI – the most promising initiative
Theory of ChangeChange of TheoryQUICK and CLEAN
Private Sector Dialogue - Metrics of Sustainable Agriculture17-18 September 2013, ICRAF, KenyaMARS, DANONE, Nestle, Unilev...
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
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The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index

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Metrics for Agricultural Transformation: Update on Recent and Ongoing Developments
April 19, 2013
Washington, DC

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The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index

  1. 1. The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented,Multi-Sectoral IndexTony Simons, Keith Shepherd, Tor Vagen, Ravi Prabhu,Anja Gassner and Mike Norton-GriffithsWorld Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Kenya
  2. 2. 1. Why is ATI needed?2. Current State of Play3. Evidence and Understanding4. Agriculture - alone or with what?5. Food for thought on ATI next stepsDecision-Oriented, Multi-sectoral Index
  3. 3. What is our collective dream for sustainable agriculture?and in how many generations?
  4. 4. 1. Why is ATI needed?The justification:• Agriculture is largest employer in the world• Largest single landuse in the world• Largest threat to natural ecosystems/natural capital• Human enterprise most vulnerable to climate change• Since 1980, when sustainability term emerged, it has been aspirationalbut not very operational (why/what are okay - but how/where are not okay)• Theory of Change for sustainability is vague, fluffy• Largely self-defined and self-monitored• Institutionalised by certifying bodies (which developing country has?)• Poor alignment of differentiated and unsustained boutique projects
  5. 5. Total World GDP = $72 trillion p.a.Agriculture GDP = $4.2 trillion p.a.Economic costs of GHG emissions,loss of natural resources, loss ofnature-based services such as carbonstorage by forests, climate change$4.7 trillion top 100 externalitiesLatest TEEB Studyreleased 15 April 2013
  6. 6. Nutrient loss (%)Nutrient loss (%)Nutrient loss (%)Shifting agriculture (slash-and-burn)
  7. 7. OverallRankSector Region Cost toNaturalCapitalUS$ billionRevenueUS$ billionImpactRatio2 Cattle Ranching SouthAmerica312.1 16.6 18.74 Wheat Farming SouthernAsia214.4 31.8 6.713 Rice Farming NorthAfrica82.3 1.2 68.0Top 100 Externalities of Business
  8. 8. 1. Why is ATI needed? (cont.)The competition:• International Institute for Sustainable Development recorded 894indicator initiatives for the monitoring of sustainable development(IISD, 2010)• Unilever have been incorporating it in their supply chains since1998• Sustainable Agriculture Initiative (Nestle, DANONE, Unilever) in 2002• Scientific Journal exists - Ecological Indicators (Elselvier)• World Business Council on Sustainable Development (2000)
  9. 9. Unilever (since 1998)1. Unilever Sustainable Agriculture Code (2010) (based on version 1 2006)- self-assessment tool for producers and suppliers- about good agricultural practices by producers10 sustainability indicators developed through stakeholder consultation:- soil fertility and health, soil loss, nutrients, pest management, biodiversity,product value, energy, water, social capital and local economyGood in theory but they largely failed in Unilever’s own managers eyes as:Not responsive to change (can’t see the difference)Overly complexToo many correlated indicatorsHard to compare across different contextsHard to communicate with consumersBut have helped drive changes in supplier behaviour (even more if incentives)2. Upcoming Sustainable Supply Chain Guidelines- sustainable agriculture metrics in their supply chains
  10. 10. AlcoholChicken Ice-cream Pet FoodBaby Food Chocolate Jams Roots and TubersBaked Goods Dairy Products Juices ShellfishBeef Eggs Lamb SodaCanned Soup Fish Margarines, oilsSugarCereal Goods Fruit NutsVegetablesWalmart Sustainable Supply Initiative ($380 billion p.a.)
  11. 11. The ‘Sustainable Agriculture’ indicator evaluates developed anddeveloping countries support for sustainable agriculture. It capturesa snapshot view of three dimensions required to ensure populationsdo not go hungry:(1) Sufficiency of financial commitment to agriculture (budgets, aid).(2) Appropriateness of policies to support low input, climate-resilientsustainable agriculture.(3) women’s access to land.ActionAid (2010)http://www.actionaid.org.uk/doc_lib/scorecard.pdfGUESS THE TOP 3 COUNTRIES
  12. 12. Review of the Evidence on Indicators,Metrics and Monitoring SystemsCommissioned by the UK Department for International Development (DFID)Conducted by the CGIAR Program on Water, Land & EcosystemsCoordinated by the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)Authors: Keith D Shepherd1, Andrew Farrow2, Claudia Ringler3, Anja Gassner1, DevraJarvis41World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)2Consultant for World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)3International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)4Bioversity International2. Current State of Play
  13. 13. 103 monitoring initiatives reviewed onsustainable intensification of agriculture (ICRAF/DFID)Common Weaknesses:• Lack of conceptual framework• Absence of clearly defined objectives of monitoring• Undefined target geography or demography• Inadequate scale hierarchy• Poor sampling theory• Low ability to disaggregate (gender)• Lack integration of biophysical and socio-economic• Poor sample strata• Lack of consistency in measurement protocols• Low attribution of interventions to outcomes (means to end Framework)• Little consideration of uncertainty• No trade-off analyses• Data sharing agreements wanting• No cost-effectiveness analysis of monitoring• Few initiatives sustained over time (institutional sustainability)
  14. 14. Purpose of MeasurementThen we studiedselected groupof 24 initiativesNone had explicit purpose to take decisions
  15. 15. Unit of Analysis
  16. 16. Frequency of Measurement
  17. 17. most were Quick and Dirtya few were Slow and Cleannone were Quick and CleanAcknowledgement must avoid Slow and Dirtybut little distinction between“Need to know” and “Nice to know”
  18. 18. 3. Evidence and Understanding• Focus on populations not individuals• Interventions designed on prevalence & incidence of problems/risks• Use standardised protocols• Operational surveillance systems assume status and risk arecontinuous processesAllow investment choices to be prioritised between issues such as:Lung cancerHIV/AIDSMalnourishmentRoad safetyPublic Health
  19. 19. Public Health SystemsCardiovascular diseaseUtilise research that showsthree risk factors account 75% of heart diseaseSmokingHigh blood pressureCholesterolfocus on these for interventions and monitoring
  20. 20. Basic problemThere is a lack of coherentand rigorous sampling andassessment frameworksthat enable comparison ofdata (i.e. meta-studies)across a wide range ofenvironmental conditions... and scalesQuantification and systematic monitoring are essential tounderstand and manage trade-offs among productivity andecosystem services, and know where are the tipping points
  21. 21. Surveillance scienceLand health metricsConsistent fieldprotocolSoil spectroscopyCoupling with remotesensingPrevalence, Risk factors, Digital mappingSentinel sitesRandomized sampling schemes
  22. 22. Soil maps generally staticCoarse resolutionDon’t reflect functional properties of the soilEthiopia soil mapGeoScience
  23. 23. But what does it mean?and how can we use it?10km
  24. 24. Soil Carbon (30m x 30m)Can guide better decisions
  25. 25. http://geoportal.worldagroforestry.org/
  26. 26. Co-locate and integrate demographic and socio-economic dataHealth Sector leads (Indepth Network)
  27. 27. Adjudicated under the LandAdjudication Act CAP 284 1968,intensive smallholder cultivationwith clear freehold titleTenure effects on land productivity andinvestmentUn-adjudicated land:no firm legal titleNorton-Griffith, in preparation
  28. 28. 38Overall, the economic and environmental gainsfrom secure tenure are substantial …..Impact Unadj FreeholdTenureEffectNet Returns to Land ($ ha-1 y-1) $198 $397 2.0Tree Crops (ha km2) 2.3 12.9 5.6Plantations and Woodlots(ha km2)3.1 12.7 4.1Hedgerows (km km-2) 5.2 23.6 4.5
  29. 29. Agricultural Intensity 1983  2013
  30. 30. The development trajectory of unadjudicated is40 years behind that of adjudicated land
  31. 31. NaturalForest4.1 billion haCropLand1.5 billion haTreePlantations0.3 billion haPasture &Rangelands3.4 billion haWetlands1.3 billion haDeserts1.9 billion haNaturalForest4.1 billion haCropLand1.5 billion haPasture &Rangelands3.4 billion haWetlands1.3 billion haDeserts1.9 billion ha4. Agriculture – alone or with what?Urban Areas
  32. 32. NaturalForest4.1 billion haCropLand1.5 billion haPasture &Rangelands3.4 billion haWetlands1.3 billion haDeserts1.9 billion haGlobal Land Area - proportional
  33. 33. AgricultureForestryEnvironmentWhat is best way to optimise goals?• Productivity/Income• Sequestration/Mitigation• Reduced emissions• Resilience/Adaptation• Environmental Goods/ServicesCSAREDD+PESWhat scale?
  34. 34. ISSUESmall-holderFarmerLocalLevelSub-nationalDistrictNationalLevelScalefield/farm/forestplot village/watershed County/District CountryArea 0.1 - 50 ha 1000s ha 10,000s ha 100,000s haLandscape Actors Small-holders Communities District Officials Govt PolicymakersJurisdiction/tenure Often weak Mixed Strong TotalActorInterestProductivity High Moderate Moderate HighCarbon stocks Little Little Little ModerateWB/WUE Moderate Moderate Little LittleDiversity Moderate Little Little LittleStrength Instit. Moderate High Moderate LittleNeedsTechnologiesPracticesInputsAccess to CreditMaterialsBuyersAdviceLand TenureAccess RightsOrganised FarmersFunctioningMarketsLow ConflictDemonstrationsSuppliersByelawsManag. RightsLanduse ControlTax RevenuesDistrict LegislationCentral GovtSupportTax RevenuesPoliciesAnalysesEvidenceBaselinesMonitoringInt. collaborationAspirationssurvival, self determination, more power/influence,better infrastructure, greater HDI
  35. 35. The Landscape Approach to Development
  36. 36. easternwesternFort Tenan
  37. 37. ParticipatoryAssessment of Currentand Potential ClimateSmart PracticesAwarenessRaising, CapacityDevelopment andDemonstrationsIntroduction ortesting of ClimateSmart PracticesBaseline Measurementand Monitoring ofLand HealthGreenhouse GasesUsing and ImprovingPredictive Tools forPotential ImpactIncreasing ProductivityReducingEnvironmentalFootprintFAOMICCA Project
  38. 38. Linkages between adaptation and mitigationImproved carbonsink management[M] Minimizeddeforestation andforest degradation[M]Improved adaptivecapacity of the society[A]Diminished releaseof GHG to theAtmosphere [M]Improvedlivelihood [A]Sustainableforestmanagement [M]Reduced loss ofsoil carbon stock[M]Enhances carbonsinks [M]Afforestation andreforestation [M]Biodiversityconservation [A]Agroforestry[M] [A]Soil and waterconservation [A]Better landscapemanagement [M] [A]Improvedagriculturalproductivity [A]Enhanced ecosystemservices and goodsavailability [A]
  39. 39. Sentinel Landscapes 2013• Data & Research Method sharingplatform to catalyze theemergence of a more coordinatedand collaborative researchapproach across landscapes• Stimulus for new research ideasforming the basis for new CRP6operational plans• Awareness of benefits of “high-value data sets”
  40. 40. Open access data archive:http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/crp6/Data Management & Sharingdocuments developed• RESEARCH DATA ARCHIVALGUIDELINES,• CS PRO MANUAL• DATAVERSE CATALOGINGINFORMATION FORM• DATAVERSE MANUAL FORCREATING AND UPLOADINGSTUDIES• RESEARCH DATAMANAGEMENT TRAININGMANUAL• DATA MANAGMENTFQ• GUIDELINES FOR SHARINGDATA IN SENTINELLANDSCAPES• RESEARCH DATAMANAGEMENT POLICYDEVELOPED BOTH FOR ICRAFAND CIFOR17 databasessubmittedand shared
  41. 41. Profitable agricultureSubsistence agriculture + safety netsPre-commercial agricultureSubsistence agricultureSustainable (small-holder) agricultureUse ofInterventions:Use ofInterventions:5. Food for thought on ATI next steps
  42. 42. Crop rotationGrowing legume cropsGrowing cover cropsFallowing in some casesUsing animal manure (??)Proper use of pesticidesProper use of inorganic fertilisersLow tillage systemsNot burning the residuesSoil erosion control measuresGood use irrigation and waterLots of good things we know we should be doing
  43. 43. ForecastRank (and spank)IdentifyTestTargetDesignEvaluateMonitor interventionsDescription of systems, situational analysisPrioritise investments(Value for money metrics for measuring agriculture, ecosystemand poverty and nutritional outcomes)Utility of ATI
  44. 44. SAI Benchmarking Report (2009)
  45. 45. Power of the Single Number
  46. 46. Measurement MagnitudeDimensions (units)Uncertainty
  47. 47. Required Features of ATI1. Sound conceptual framework, clarity of goals2. Broad ownership, agreed terminology, universal indicator set3. Actionable (Decisions, Practices)4. Rigorous data collection and analyses (uncertainty)5. Credible, reliable and accurate6. Accessible, customisable, allow tradeoffs scenarios, subjectivity7. Easy to interpret8. Free from manipulation, independently verifiable9. Enduring and financially supported10.Evolve with new evidence
  48. 48. PURPOSESSCALEGlobal National Sub-national Local1. Awareness, advocacyand transparency *** *** ** *2. Alignment Goals,Standards, Methods ** *** * *3. Identify and mitigaterisks, constraints *** *** ** **4. Benchmarking andranking *** *** **5. Formulation andreform policies * *** ** **6. Prioritise allocations,investment, actions ** *** *** **7. Target and monitorinterventions ** *** *** **8. Report outcomes andimpacts (VFM) *** ** **
  49. 49. PURPOSESACTORDonors GovtsPrivateSectorNGOsCBOs FarmersPublic/Consumr1 Awareness,advocacyand transparency*** ** *** ** *2 Alignment Goals,Standards, Methods ** *** * * * *3 Identify and mitigaterisks, constraints** *** *** ** **4 Benchmarking andranking*** *** ** *5 Formulation andreform policies* *** ** ** ** *6 Prioritise allocations,investment, actions** *** *** * **7 Target and monitorinterventions** *** ** **8 Report outcomesand impacts (VFM)*** ** ** * *
  50. 50. ATI Sub-indicies1. Agribusiness/Policy (BBA)2. Productivity and Nutrivity3. Profitability, ROI4. Agroecosystem Health (soil, water, biodiversity, carbon, pollution)5. Social inclusion (gender, youth, poor)/Capacity
  51. 51. Indicators1. Existing and new2. Predictive and responsive3. Quantitative, qualitative (relative/filter)4. Direct and proxy measures5. Will evolve over time6. May we weighted differently by some groups
  52. 52. ATI – the most promising initiative
  53. 53. ATI – the most promising initiative
  54. 54. Theory of ChangeChange of TheoryQUICK and CLEAN
  55. 55. Private Sector Dialogue - Metrics of Sustainable Agriculture17-18 September 2013, ICRAF, KenyaMARS, DANONE, Nestle, Unilever, Louis DreyfusIFAD, CTA

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