This document discusses mobile phone strategy from an evolutionary biology perspective. It analyzes Apple's initial iPhone launch as employing a risky but high-reward K-selection strategy. Android and iOS were then able to expand their ecosystems across the market rapidly using exponential growth models. Old strategies like Motorola, Samsung and Nokia's many product r-selection portfolios or Nokia's later K-selection smart devices failed to achieve dominance. The document advocates considering r-selection and K-selection strategies based on the current market situation to maximize the chances of a product or platform becoming the dominant species.

1. Evolutionary
Biology for
Mobile phone
strategy
PRINCIPAL UX EXPERT
ALF BAE

2. Summary
• Apple iPhone took a strategy of K-Selection at 2007. Risky but
nothing too much to loose. Successfully invade and disturb the
market quickly.
• iPhone shock in the eco system is too big to be dominated by
iPhone alone.
• iOS and Android had expanded their eco system over the market
at full potential growth rate.
• Old Motorola, Samsung and Nokia’s r-Selection strategy (many
product as possible in portfolio) in feature phone was failed to
dominant market any more.
• K-Selection strategy by Nokia smart device is also failed to
dominate market from 2010-2013. WM6 &WM7 couldn’t compete
with Android nor iOS neither.
• From 2010, r-Selection strategy could be back for Android.
Because Android platform is now dominated and stabilized.
• From 2010, Nokia choose a kind of K-Selection strategy but it was
too expensive for Nokia. Too late. Risk of the strategy is realized.

3. Why Biology is Important for
us?
 We may learn something from
Biology.
 Especially, from evolutionary
biology.
 Evolutionary biology
 And little bit of math!

4. Live long and prosper
 All creatures want to live long and be prosperous.

5. Ecologic world of mobile phone
 What happen in 2007?
“Awesome!”
2007 June

6. Invasive species : European rabbit
infestation in Australia
• Disrupt ecosystem
• Cause species loss
• Consume all resources
• Change landscape

7. Invasion by a new dominant species!

8. J curve
 Android and iOS make
a J curve growth.

9. Exponential Growth
 Also known as a J-curve
 Growth is a fixed percentage of
the whole (e.g., 10% per day or
year)
 Population is growing at its full
biotic potential

10. Logistic Growth
 Also known as S-curve
 Growth slows as the population
approaches Carrying Capacity
 Populations stabilize at carrying
capacity

11. Where was Nokia at 2012?
volumes sold >
operating profit>
Nokia
Nokia
Apple
Apple
Apple
Nokia

12. And in 2013

13. Company Confidential. © 2010 Nokia. 13
It’s all about
Natural selection!
Ecological selection(Fitness) & Sexual selection (Sexy)

14. Company Confidential. © 2010 Nokia 14
So if you want to be
selected by nature ,
need to choose …

15. “r-Selected” Species
 r = Growth rate
 Reproduce young
 High reproductive rates
 Many small offspring
 Short-lived
 Found in unstable or
unpredictable environments

16. Examples of r-Selected
Species
 Weeds, bacteria, insects, algae, small mammals

17. “K-Selected” Species
 K = Carrying Capacity
 Reproduce later in life
 Low reproductive rates
 Fewer large offspring
 Long-lived
 Stable or predictable
environments

18. Examples of K-Selected
Species
 Elephants, great apes, whales, human

19. What Determines Population
Size or Carrying Capacity?
• Environmental Resistance
• All the limiting factors that
tend to reduce population
growth rates
• Balance between biotic
potential & environmental
resistance determines
growth rate

20. What are some Limiting
Factors? Environmental
resistance
Carrying
capacity
Stabilized
population
size
Limiting factors:
Water
Space
Food
Predators
Disease

21. Dominant Species
 Who is the dominant species in
earth? Human!
• Versatile surviving skill(language
and culture)
• Reproduce later (over 30? Now)
• Low reproductive rate (almost
1.x)
• Long-lived ( over 60yrs)
• Stable of predictable environments
(after world war II)

22. So What?
• What is carrying capacity of mobile phone business?
• What is best point between r-selection and K-selection continuum?
• How can we be a dominant species?
“User’s Selection” is “Nature’s Selection”

23. r and K strategies in mobile
business

24. Company Confidential. © 2010 Nokia 24
r-K continuum
r-Selected K-Selected
Many as
possible The One
Area Defense
One by one
Diversionary
tactics
Multiple choice but depends on
current situation