The document discusses evolutionary biology strategies for mobile phone businesses. It describes how the iPhone took a risky "K-selection" strategy in 2007, successfully invading and disrupting the market. This shocked the ecosystem. Android and iOS then expanded their ecosystems to their full growth potential. The document analyzes r-selected and K-selected species strategies and how mobile companies like Apple, Android, Nokia, and Samsung employed these strategies.

1. Evolutionary biology for
Mobile phone business
strategy
Alf Bae
alfpooh@gmail.com

2. Summary
• Apple iPhone took a strategy of K-Selection at 2007. Risky but
nothing too much to loose. Successfully invaded and disturbed the
market quickly.
• iPhone shocked in the eco system. It was too big to be dominated
by iPhone alone.
• iOS and Android had expanded their eco system over the market
at full potential growth rate.

3. Why Biology is important for us?
• We may learn something
from Biology.
• Especially, from the
evolutionary biology.
• Evolutionary biology and a little bit of
math!

4. Live long and prosper
• All creatures want to live long and be prosperous.

5. Ecologic world of mobile phone
• What happen in 2007?
• Even after the radical innovation
comes, old is still good for
awhile. A chance of change may
be given but it looks too
dangerous.
“Awesome!”
2007 June

6. That was an invasion by a new species.
And it becomes dominant species.

7. Invasive species : European rabbit infestation in Australia
• Disrupt ecosystem
• Cause species loss
• Consume all resources
• Change landscape

8. Exponential Growth
• Also known as a J-curve
• Growth is a fixed percentage of
the whole (e.g., 10% per day or
year)
• Population is growing at its full
biotic potential

9. Logistic Growth
• Also known as S-curve
• Growth slows as the population
approaches Carrying Capacity
• Populations stabilize at carrying
capacity

10. Android and iOS draws J curve
• Shows the new
species how rapidly
dominant an eco
system.
• Android and iOS
made a J curve
growth.

11. Where was Nokia at 2012?
volumes sold >
operating profit>
Nokia
Apple
Nokia
Apple
Apple
Nokia

12. And in 2013

13. It’s all about Natural selection!
So if you want to be selected by
nature , need to choose a strategy.

14. “r-Selected” Species
• r = Growth rate
• Reproduce young
• High reproductive rates
• Many small offspring
• Short-lived
• Found in unstable or unpredictable
environments

15. Examples of r-Selected Species
• Weeds, bacteria, insects, algae, small mammals

16. “K-Selected” Species
• K = Carrying Capacity
• Reproduce later in life
• Low reproductive rates
• Fewer large offspring
• Long-lived
• Stable or predictable environments

17. Examples of K-Selected Species
• Elephants, great apes, whales, human

18. What Determines Population Size or Carrying
Capacity?
• Environmental Resistance
• All the limiting factors that
tend to reduce population
growth rates
• Balance between biotic
potential & environmental
resistance determines
growth rate

19. What are some Limiting Factors?
Environmental
resistance
Carrying
capacity
Stabilized
population
size
Limiting factors:
Water
Space
Food
Predators
Disease

20. Dominant Species
• Who is the dominant species in
earth? Human!
• Versatile surviving skill(language
and culture)
• Reproduce later (over 30? Now)
• Low reproductive rate (almost 1.x)
• Long-lived ( over 60yrs)
• Stable of predictable
environments (after world war II)

21. So What?
• What is carrying capacity of mobile phone business?
• What is best point between r-selection and K-selection continuum?
• How can we be a dominant species?
“User’s Selection” is “Nature’s Selection”

22. r and K strategies in mobile business

23. What happens?
• Old Motorola, Samsung and Nokia’s r-Selection strategy (many
product as possible in portfolio) in feature phone was failed to
keep their dominant market any more.
• K-Selection strategy by Nokia smart device is also failed to
dominate market from 2010-2013. WM6 &WM7 couldn’t compete
with Android nor iOS neither.
• From 2010, r-Selection strategy could be back for Android. Android
platform dominates and is stabilized.
• From 2010, Nokia chose a kind of K-Selection strategy but it was
too expensive for Nokia. Too late. Risk of the strategy is realized.

24. Questions?
• Do you have enough products in portfolio?
• Is it time for increasing or decreasing the size of portfolio?
• Are you focused on a strategic area and invest enough resource on it?
• During arm race, how can you have a leadership at high ground?
• Arm racing is approaching to end? If it is expected, do you have a
next plan?

25. Multiple choice but depends on current
situation
r-K r-Selected continuum K-Selected
Diversionary
Many as
One by one possible tactics
Area Defense The One
Company Confidential. ©2010 Nokia 25