2. Content
• Vulnerability Assessment: 2010 - 2011
Impact of climate change on Jamaican agriculture & long-
term sustainability of the hotel industry supply chain
• Climate Variability and Crops: 2014 – 2015
Climate Impacts and Resilience in Caribbean Agriculture:
Assessing the consequences of climate change on cocoa and
tomato production in Trinidad & Tobago and Jamaica
(CIRCA)
• Conclusions for policy makers
3. Impact of climate change on Jamaican agriculture & long-
term sustainability of the hotel industry supply chain
P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A Benedikter, J Gordon, K Rhiney
3rd Annual Sustainable Livelihoods Learning Network Conference, Jamaica 2011
5. Sampling & study zone
ia
Criteria for selecting communities:
• Pre-results of crop-suitability-change
• Different production areas
(covering all crops and production systems)
• Farmer is/is not a active supplier of Hotel
industry
6. • Field-work supported by UWI - University of West Indies
• 5 focus groups workshops in selected communities:
Douglas Castle – St. Ann / Beacon - St. Elizabeth / Christiana – Manchester
Fort George - St. Mary / Dumfries - St. Thomas
• 130 individual surveys with farmers
• 200 GPS points collected of participating farms and production locations
(used as crop reference sites for climatic conditions)
FIELD WORK October 2010
7. Suitability modeling with Ecocrop
EcoCrop, originally by Hijman et al. (2001), was further developed, providing calibration and
evaluation procedures (Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2011).
It evaluates on monthly basis if there
are adequate climatic conditions
within a growing season for
temperature and precipitation…
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the
resulting interaction between rainfall and
temperature…
How does it work?
8. Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)EXPOSURE Suitability change for ginger under progressive climate change
current
Suitability
in %
2030
2050
9. Low Sensitivity (high value)
Physical Type of road, material of house,
ownership
Natural Water is quite evenly distributed,
enough water, sustainable practices on waste
management
Medium Sensitivity
High Sensitivity (low value)
Financial credits are available but not
accessible (or not used)
Social lack of presence of farm-organizations
Human missing training, don’t keep records
Low Adaptive Capacity (high value)
Natural Distance to water-access, water quality,
waste-management (recycling), Type of soil
Medium Adaptive Capacity
Physical Short distance to market, good access
to electricity, availability of transportation
Low Adaptive Capacity (low value)
Social missing activities of organizations
Financial lack of access to credit, indirect
marketing channel, missing certification
Human low access to training, degree of
education
SENSITIVITY & ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Socio-economic analysis
It seems as if especially vulnerable subgroups
exist behind the data. Further analysis is needed
to characterize them.
e.g. marketing channel, ownership of land,
education and access to training
10. VULNERABILITY Site-specific vulnerability profile
High
Medium
low
High
Medium
low
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
Low exposure / High Sensitivity / low adaptive capacity
high
medium
low
Exposure
High exposure / medium sensitivity / medium adaptive capacity
Low exposure / medium sensitivity / medium adaptive capacity
… for ginger farmers near Christiana (site-specific)
11. • Group I (Christiana Potato growers, Ministry of agriculture: Forestry, RADA)
• Organize farmers in groups for empowerment, unity & cooperation
• Train and educate farmers through dissemination of information to influence behavioral change in best
agricultural practices and use of innovative technology
• Quality, quantity and sustainability to enhance long term productivity &viability to maintain standards
and practices that are environmentally friendly
• Group II (Farmers from Manchester)
• Change the planting season according to crops. Reap before hurricane season
• Have storage tanks for drought period. Mulching of crops
• Rebuild and preserve the soil
• Group III (Farmers from Manchester)
• Financing at organizational level to invest in tools for the community and land titles
• Soil Management: Test soils (organizations) to better respond to changing climate conditions
• Information and training about green housing to produce all year long (RADA, …)
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Training & education
Organization & financing
Adaptation to changing seasons and extreme weather events /
Long term focus on sustainable production
1
2
3
From the base of the supply-chain Christiana
12. “In the past we installed irrigation systems, but when there
is drought, there is still not enough water”
Farmers co-operation, Jamaica, St. Elizabeth, Beacon, 2010
Farmers perceptions
13. “Input costs for vegetable production are very high, this year
a heavy rain destroyed in just 3 days all my lettuce”
Young farmer, Jamaica, St. Ann, Douglas Castle, 2010
14. “We have no transportation, the road is bad, a lot of holes, if
hagglers (intermediaries) are not coming, we leave it on the
field” Farmer, Jamaica, St. James, Summervile, 2010
16. Climate Impacts and Resilience in Caribbean Agriculture:
Assessing the consequences of climate change on cocoa
and tomato production in Trinidad & Tobago and Jamaica
(CIRCA)
WP2 – Crop-Climate Suitability Modeling
Anton Eitzinger, Stephania Carmona, Karolina Argote, Peter Laderach, Andy Jarvis
A.Eitzinger@cgiar.org University of west Indies, January, 2015
17. Observe climate Model climate
Generation of future climate data: Circulation models from IPCC AR5
Statistical downscaling of climate data (Delta method to downscale)
Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A (2010) Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs: The Delta Method
Use local meteorological data
to improve climate surface for downscaling
Source: Climate Studies Group Mona
18. Crop-Climate-Variability
from historical time-series
Figure 16. Behavior of suitability crops during the 1997-2013 time series for five
localities in Jamaica. The categories refer to aptitude levels: Very High (VH)>75%, High (H)
>50%, Medium (M) >30%, Low (L) <30%.
19. Key messages
The islands of Jamaica and
Trinidad & Tobago may suffer
… losses in tomato crop
productivity …. expected to
have optimal climate
conditions for growing cacao
… Cocoa is likely to have small
suitability reductions,
affirming the high resistance
of the crop in relation to
temperature increases. … the
drier areas of the islands will
face more severe impacts due
to cocoa’s high sensitivity to
drought … Crops such as
cassava, sweet potato and
yam are good diversification
alternatives … as a result of
shifting climatic conditions
their geographic distribution
might change in the coming
decades.
20. Policy brief, 2015
(in press)
Assessing the impact of climate change on cocoa and tomato in the
Caribbean: the cases of Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago
Abstract
Tomato is the most widely grown vegetable worldwide, and is considered to be one of the most economically important crops. Cocoa, an
essential crop for the livelihoods of large numbers of people around the world, also occupies significant space within agricultural markets.
According to FAO, in recent years Caribbean islands such as Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago have obtained an average tomato production
of over 1700 tons per hectare. While the overall productivity of cocoa farms is lower (500 - 1000 tons per hectare), the islands’ cocoa
production is characterized by its superior quality cocoa ….
Key messages
Given expected changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, the islands of Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago may suffer considerable losses
in tomato crop productivity due to a reduction of more than 20% in the area suitable for the crop. In addition to this, there may be reductions
in suitable growing areas due to other natural phenomena, such as hurricanes and land loss due to sea level rise.
In 2050 Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago are expected to have near-optimal climate conditions for growing cacao, although not on the top of
the main mountains and in drier coastal areas. Cocoa is likely to have small suitability reductions, affirming the high resistance of the crop in
relation to temperature increases. However, the drier areas of the islands will face more severe impacts due to cocoa’s high sensitivity to
drought.
Crops such as cassava, sweet potato and yam are good diversification alternatives. Their climate suitability in Jamaica and Trinidad &
Tobago is expected to remain and even increase in the face of climate change.
In 2050 the climate suitability of all crops monitored in this study will increase in certain areas, mainly towards the median altitudinal
gradients situated around the high mountains of the islands. As these areas are currently used for forest conservation or the production of
other crops with equal economic importance, e.g. coffee, land use pressure is likely to be the result.
21. http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/implementing-csa-the-last-mile/
• Identify most promising CSA practices (national prioritization)
• Biophysical and economic modeling to assess enabling
environments and social constraints and opportunities for
smallholders in a site specific context
• Validate benefits with local agriculture experts
• Create feedback loops in the agricultural systems in order to
enable wide-scale adoption of CSA practices and improve
agricultural productivity.
Next steps:
Example
from East
Africa
Opportunities for out-scaling Climate Smart
Agriculture
