1. Authors
Michelle A. Sherwood, Yu Takeuchi, Worrel A.Diedrick, Kathy M.
Dalip
Vyjayanthi F. Lopez, Deshaune Martin, Jacqueline M. Spence and
Dahlia Fletcher
,
The Beet Armyworm Pest Forecast
Model: A Decision-Making Tool for Pest
Management in Jamaica

2.  Beet Armywom outbreak in 2009-2012
 FAO-TCP-3401 “Strengthening the National Beet armyworm
(Spodoptera exigua) Programme” was approved in 2012
 Two Years Oct 2012 to Oct 2014
 Valued at US$ 213,000
 Implemented: by MOA&F, R&D (Bodles) / Rural Agricultural Development
Authority (RADA)
 Beneficiaries: farmers of St. Elizabeth,
 Partners: ACDI/VOCA (complementary activities FFS, ODK training)
 Project Lead by TWG lead by Research and Development Division in
collaboration with RADA, Met. Office and ALMD.
ACDI/VOCA received a 4-year, $14 million award from USAID to implement the Jamaica Rural Economy
and Ecosystems Adapting to Climate cHange (Ja-REEACH) program (formerly MAJIC program that
focused on transforming Jamaica’s agriculture sector into a market-driven, competitive industry)
http://www.acdivoca.org/site/ID/jamaica-ja-reeach
INTRODUCTION

3. COMPONENTS OF THE PROGRAMME
Three components, PFS comes under component 1
 (1) Monitoring and surveillance programme for beet
armyworm strengthened and a monitoring tool established
and institutionalized in appropriate agencies
 Evaluate and improve data collection and analysis
programme
 Formulate a forecasting tool including assessment of
GIS requirements
 Review institutional arrangements for operating the
forecasting tool
 Train 10 personnel from key agencies to maintain the
tool

4. Activities Progress to date
• Development
and
establishment
of BAW
forecasting tool
(FT):
Expert consultant recruited to develop FT
based on
• Analysis of weather patterns in Jamaica
• Development of a Degree-day Model
• Pest Population Dynamics
One Mission completed (2013)
1. Evaluation of information, IT and
institutional capacities
Second mission (August 2014)
2. Installation of selected FT and training
of 15 national personnel in R&D, RADA,
Met. Office, ICT, ALMD, PQ were
trained
3. the use and maintenance of selected
FT
Third Mission (July 20-24, 2015)
FAO Consultant
Pest Forecasting
Specialist - Ms. Yu Takeuchi

5. DEGREE DAY MODEL
 The total amount of heat required
between the upper and lower
thresholds for an organism to
develop from one point to another
in its lifecycle is calculated in Units
called Degree days
 Data generated by R&D and NCU
under local conditions and data
gaps filled by published data from
North America
 BAW needs egg – adult 516.65 DD
 Lower threshold is14.9 C
 Upper threshold

8. FORECAST DEGREE DAYS
Degree days recorded during April and May for 2010 to 2013 ranged from
1289.01 to 1850.14 which means there were 2-3 BAW lifecycle per month.
This resulted in outbreaks and flare up of the population during these
periods. This data provides a guide for warning farmers when to expect an
outbreak using degree days. June i
1440.88
1289.01 1328.393021 1360.882942 1371.126479
1850.136482
1648.844886
1740.40053 1753.920442 1778.228733
2265.437154
2043.207251
2168.12635 2165.168742 2207.039232
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2015
Degree Days at Barton Isles during outbreak periods
January - April, May & June 2010 to 2015
April May June
DegreedaysatBartonisles

9. BAW POPULATION DURING
PERIOD

10. AREA-WIDE MONITORING &
SURVEILLANCE OF BEET ARMYWORM
Monitoring:
 Pest monitoring by RADA from 8 -10
locations across the affected areas in
the Parish of St. Elizabeth using ODK
App.
 Used to determine when population
exceed the damage threshold of 5
larvae per plant or 1 larvae in 5 plant
to guide timing of management
programme
 Same population data needed to
validate BAW Pest Forecasting
System (PFS) by comparing field
populations against predictions of the
BAW PFS

12. DECISION OPTIONS
Pest management Strategy:
The advisory may
 No intervention required continue monitoring
 Interventions required: Dependent on pest population &
stage of pest
Include information re the various Integrated Pest
Management components to be used e.g.
 Monitoring,
 Cultural,
 Mechanical,
 Biological and,
 Chemical to be applied in an environmentally friendly and
sustainable manner.

13. DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION
Once the degree day prediction is generated it can be
shared with other institutions to develop advisories for
farmers as to decision making re BAW
Advisories can then be prepared by the interpretation
of the forecast and disseminated through various
media to farmers for their action,
 Texting via phone
 Print or electronic media
 Weather report

15. THANK YOU