2. مهارات اتخاذ القرارات وحل
المشكلت
PROBLEM SOLVING AND DECISIONMAKING SKILLS
د . إبراهيم بن محمد بن عبدالعزيز
الثنيــــان
Dr Abrahim Althonayan
+966505856800 / +447904159720
aalthonayan@gmail.com
Dr Abrahim Althonayan
2
4. "In any moment of decision the best thing
you can do is the right thing, the next best
thing is the wrong thing, and the worst
thing you can do is nothing." (attributed to
Theodore Roosevelt)
5. Course objectives
•
Acquire analysis solving and decision-making skills
and techniques.
•
Learn the various steps and tools of analyzing and
making decisions.
•
Learn skills on how to be creative and an initiator.
•
Acquire skills and developing an action plan.
5
6. Course Contents
1. Background
2. Types of Decisions
3. Problem and Cause Analysis
4. Go/No Go Decision
5. Criteria Based Decision
6. Situation Analysis
7. Action Plan Analysis
6
7. Course Contents
8. Problem Solving
9. Situation Analysis
10. SWAT Analysis
11. PEST Analysis
12. Summery
7
8. : تعريف
Definitions
• Problem Solving – the process of overcoming
obstacles to achieve a goal.
• حل المشكلت : عملية التغلب على العوائق لتحقيق
.الهداف
• Decision Making – involves making a choice
among alternatives.
.• اتخاذ القرارات : الختيار من بين عدة بدائل
9. • Good decision-making requires a mixture of skills:
creative development and identification of options,
clarity of judgement, firmness of decision, and
effective implementation.
13. Decision-making Process
The Decision-making is the thinking process managers
use every day to make decisions, which vary in
importance from insignificant to critical and far-reaching.
NEED
-- A reason for making a decision.
Organize -- Arranging existing
information and any additional
information gained during fact-finding.
Gather
-- Seeking specific additional
information to determine about the
situation; Fact – finding.
13
14. Decision-making Process
Analyse /
-- Studying the organized
Evaluate
information to determine its meaning
in relation to the need
Conclude
-- Making a tentative decision which
appears to meet the need.
Check
-- Carrying out a reality check
designed to establish whether the
tentative decision will meet the need and
whether its consequences are acceptable.
Decision
-- Rendering judgments, taking action
or committing oneself to a course of action.
14
15. Situation
SITUATION NEED
DECISION
Problem and
cause Analysis
What’s happening and why?
Actual cause
GO / NO GO
Decisions
Should I or Shouldn’t I?
Yes or no
Criteria-based
Decisions
Situation Analysis
Action plan
Analysis
Which one?
Where do I start?
How can I implement
my decision
Best
Alternative
Top Priority
actions
Taking Actions and
keeping Track
15
16. Need – Analyze
Cause of
Accidents
Decision – Cause
( metal
fatigue)
Need – Consider
alternative courses
of action to
prevent recurrence
of cause
Need – Schedule
Resources to
implement course
of action
Decision – Choice of
course of
action
Decision – Schedule (how
it will be
done)
16
18. Examining Our Decision
Evaluating Information
Drawing Conclusions
Checking Conclusions
Deciding
Objectivity
Vision
Initiative
•Failing to identify what is
significant
•Jumping to conclusions
•Failing to check conclusions
•Either impetuously taking action or
procrastinating
•Clearly identifying and accurately
weighing significant information
•Reaching a tentative conclusion
which reflects all the information
•Carefully checking whether the
initial conclusion holds up
•Making a firm commitment to a
course of action
•Allowing personal feeling and past
experience to adversely affect
decisions
•Viewing one's own world very
narrowly and ignoring the impact of
decisions on others
•Letting things ''slide''
•Carefully analyzing information and
placing one's own feelings and
experience in proper perspective
•Continuously expanding one's view
and considering the impact of
decisions on others
•Taking the lead and remaining
proactive
18
19. Problem and Cause Analysis
Jumping to Conclusions
If right
If wrong
• Save time
• waste time
• Problem solved
• Problem not solved
• Problem probably gets worse
• Danger of related things going
wrong
19
21. Cause Analysis
Decision Guide
NEED
Objectivity
Vision
Initiative
Information Base
DESCRIPTION
OF NEED
OBJECTIVITY
Vision
INITIATIVE
Guidelines
Describe the need in terms of: What’s
happening and why?”
•What personal feelings or past experience
might reduce your objectivity?
•How can you keep these in proper
perspective?
•What broader or longer-range issues are
related to this situation?
•How can you take these into account?
•What barriers to or opportunities for taking
action exist in this situation?
•What can you do about these?
21
22. Cause Analysis
INFORMATION
QUESTION
Cause Analysis
SIGNIFICANT
INFORMATION
Evaluate
Conclude
CONCLUSION
( Probable cause)
Check
CHECK
DEGISION
DECISION
(Actual cause)
•What information do you already have?
__ What occurred?
__ circumstances surrounding the situation ?
•What additional information do you need?
__ How can this information be gathered ?
( separating the information into categories helps create a
better understanding of it.)
•What factors could have contributed to the cause ?
__ changes ?
__ connections ?
__ trends ?
__ external comparisons?
__ unique features ?
•What is the most probable cause?
•Does it account for all the symptoms?
•How can you check your conclusion quickly and
inexpensively?
__ laboratory tests?
__ previous records?
__ check with specialist?
__check with people is similar situations?
( Make sure the checking itself will not have negative
consequences.)
•if check confirms the cause. You are ready to consider
whether you need to take further action.
? What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision
22
23. Chart Is
Dimension
What.
(Identity)
Related Facts
*On what item is the
performance-gap observed?
*what exactly is the deviation?
Competitive Facts
*On which other item could the
performance-gap be observed but
was not?
Where.
(Place)
*where else (geographically) could
the deviation be observed but was
not?
When.
(Time)
Volume.
Magnitude)
*where is the deviation
observed? (geographically)
*where on the item is the
deviation observed?
*When is the deviation first
observed? (Pattern)
*When else in the item’s productcycle is the deviation first
observed?
*When else could the deviation be
observed but was not? (what other
pattern?)
*when else in the item’s productcycle could the deviation be first
observed but was not?
*How extensive is the deviation?
*How many items are faulty?
*How big is the deviation on
each item?
*What is the trend?
*How extensive could the deviation
be but was not?
*How many items could have been
affected but were not?
*How big could the deviation be on
each item but was not?
*What other trend could have been
observed but was not?
23
24. Go/No Go Decision
Decision Guide
NEED
Information Base
DESCRIPTION
OF NEED
Objectivity
OBJECTIVITY
Vision
Vision
Initiative
INITIATIVE
Guidelines
Describe the need in terms of :”Should I or
shouldn’t I?”
•What personal feelings or past experience might
reduce your objectivity?
•How can you keep these in proper perspective?
•What broader or longer-range issues are related to
this situation?
•How can you take these into account?
•What barriers to or opportunities for taking action
exist in this situation?
•What can you do about these?
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25. Go/No Go Decision
INFORMATION
QUESTION
Evaluate
Go/No Go
Decisions
PROS / CONS
Conclude
CONCLUSION
Check
CHECK/ RISKS
How can Risks be
minimized?
•What information do you already have?
__ Current situation?
__ proposed situation ?
•What additional information do you need?
__ How can this information be gathered?
(Separating the information into categories helps create a better
understanding of it.)
•Divide factors into pros and cons.
•Weight factors with up to three plusses or minuses.
•Consider the balance of plusses and minuses and reach a
tentative decision.
•How can you check the validity of your conclusion?
__ Can it be implemented on a small scale?
__ Can you check with other people?
•What are the possible risks?
__ What could happen if you go ahead/don’t go ahead?
__ What effects could this have on goals, people or plans?
•What can you do to minimize the risks?
DEGISION
DECISION
•If you decide to go head, you need to consider what happens
next. For example, you may need to choose between alternatives
or prepare a plan.
? What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision
25
28. Criteria Based Decisions
Decision Guide
NEED
Objectivity
Vision
Initiative
Information Base
DESCRIPTION
OF NEED
OBJECTIVITY
Guidelines
Describe the need in terms of:”Which one?”
•What personal feelings or past experience might reduce your
objectivity?
•How can you keep these in proper perspective?
Vision
•What broader or longer-range issues are related to this situation?
•How can you take these into account?
INITIATIVE
•What barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this
situation?
•What can you do about these?
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29. Criteria Based Decisions
INFORMATION
QUESTION
Criteria-based
Decisions
CRITERIA/
ALTERNATIVES
Evaluate
Conclude
CONCLUSION
Check
DEGISION
CHECK/ RISKS
How can Risks be minimized?
DECISION
•What factors(criteria) do you need to consider?
• __ What do you want from your final choice?
•Performance capabilities ?
•Physical characteristics?
• __ What will others want from your choice?
• __ What minimum requirements must be met?
• __ What resources can your expend?
• __ What do you want to changes in the current situation?
• __ What undesirable effects do you want to avoid?
• __ What policies or future changes do you need to
considers?
•
•What are the alternatives ?
__ Do they already exist/need to be created?
•
•Separate criteria into essential and useful.
•Weight useful criteria with one, two or three plusses.
•Rate extent to which each alternative meet the criteria.
•Sum up plusses and determine which alternative best meets
the criteria.
•Identify possible risks.
__ What are the areas of weakest fit with the criteria?
__ What could go wrong?
__ what effects could this have on goals, people or plans?
•What can you do to minimize the risks
•Select the alternative which
__ best meet the criteria and
__ has an acceptable level of risk.
What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision?
29
30. Impact Of Poor Decisions
Minor
day-to-day
decisions
Low impact
Major
long-range
decisions
High impact
30
31. Impact Of Poor Decisions
Minor
day-to-day
decisions
Low impact
Degree of care required
In arriving decision
Major
long-range
decisions
High impact
31
34. Reactive :
Time spent solving problem:
• Events control you
• As you solve today’s problems,
tomorrows are growing
• You make little or no real
progress
• You spend most of your time
“fighting fires”
Proactive
Time spent developing
opportunities:
• You control events
• Your effort goes into preventing
tomorrow’s problems
• You have a definite feeling of
progress
• You have enough time to do the
things you enjoy
34
35. Crucial Vs. Urgent
Examples
•
•
•
•
Crucial and
urgent
Crucial not urgent
Urgent not crucial
Neither crucial
nor urgent
•
•
•
•
Investigating an
industrial accident
Determining
future staffing
needs
Handling a
customer
complaint
Handling routine
correspondence
35
37. In the space below separate, priorities and locate your
major job concerns.
PRIORITISE
Key Situational
Variable
Critic.
Urgent.
Locate Necessary
Process
Growth.
37
40. Situation Analysis
In the space below list the potential problems with regard
to each critical step. After doing so, prioritise them by
considering the probability of the problem occurring and
the impact if it does.
Potential Problem
PRIORITY
Probable Impact
40
41. Situation Analysis
In the space below modify your action plan by adding the
major preventive and contingency actions.
Step
Action
Who
Start
Finish
Remarks
41
56. The Six-Step Rational Model
•
•
•
•
•
•
Define the Problem
Identify decision criteria
Weight the criteria
Generate alternatives
Rate each alternative on each criterion
Compute the optimal decision
60. Force Field Analysis
:Cite objective, goal, target, problem,need
Driving
Forces
Restraining
Forces
Forces favoring
the change
Forces resisting the change
{Equilibrium or current status}
61. Is / Is Not Analysis
Is
Is Not
What
What is the area or
object with the problem?
What is not the area or
object with the problem?
Symptoms
What are the symptoms
of the problem?
What are not the symptoms
of the problem?
When
When is the problem
observed?
When is the problem not
observed?
Where
Where does the problem
occur?
Where does the problem
not occur?
Who
Who is affected by the
problem?
Who is not affected by the
problem?
62. PEST analysis
Political:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
ecological/environmental issues
current legislation home market
future legislation
European/international legislation
regulatory bodies and processes
government policies
government term and change
trading policies
funding, grants and initiatives
home market lobbying/pressure groups
international pressure groups
wars and conflict
Dr Abrahim
62
63. PEST analysis (Continue)
Economic
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
home economy situation
home economy trends
overseas economies and trends
general taxation issues
taxation specific to product/services
seasonality/weather issues
market and trade cycles
specific industry factors
market routes and distribution trends
customer/end-user drivers
interest and exchange rates
international trade/monetary issues
Dr Abrahim
63
64. PEST analysis (Continue)
Social
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
lifestyle trends
demographics
consumer attitudes and opinions
media views
law changes affecting social factors
brand, company, technology image
consumer buying patterns
fashion and role models
major events and influences
buying access and trends
ethnic/religious factors
advertising and publicity Abrahim
Dr
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65. PEST analysis (Continue)
Technological
•
•
•
•
•
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•
•
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•
•
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competing technology development
research funding
associated/dependent technologies
replacement technology/solutions
maturity of technology
manufacturing maturity and capacity
information and communications
consumer buying mechanisms/technology
technology legislation
innovation potential
technology access, licencing, patents
intellectual property issues
Dr Abrahim
65
68. Conditions of Problem Solving
Possess skills
Experience success
Be rewarded
Not fear failure
68
69. Problem Structure
1.
Action Plan Statement:
•
what is to be done?
•
what are the desired results?
realistic
timely
2. Develop Action Plan Steps:
•
figure-out step-by-step actions
•
determine time-schedule
69
70. Problem Structure
3. Select Critical Steps:
•
potential disasters
•
high risk areas
4. Identify Potential Problems:
•
what could go wrong with this activity?
70
71. Problem Structure
5. Prioritise Potential Problems:
•
probability (High/Medium/Low)
•
impact (High/Medium/Low)
6. Determine Probable Causes:
•
what could cause this potential problem?
71
72. Problem Structure
7. Determine Preventive & Contingent Actions:
•
what can reduce the probability of this
problem occurring?
•
what can reduce the impact if it does
occur?
8. Modify Your Action Plan:
•
•
ad major preventive actions
ad major contingency actions
72
75. 3.
Which course of action should we take?
Make reasoned choice
Choice-making pattern is based on these activities
1. Determination of purpose
2. Consideration of available options
3. Assessment of relative risks
76. 4. What lies ahead?
Future-oriented thinking
Anticipate the future
Look into the future
Take action
1. Preventive
2. Contingent
77. Effective Thinking Styles
1. Holistic Thinking:
All Issues surrounding and affecting the situation
2. Divergent Thinking:
Opening new dimensions to build diver data – base
3. Convergent Thinking:
Combining, conclusions, adding, dropping
78. Effective Thinking Styles
4. Creative Thinking:
New innovative original concepts & ideas
5. Collaborative Thinking:
Exchanging & building on others' ideas
6. Other Thinking Styles:
Positive & Negative
80. Johari Window
Not
Known To Known To
Others
Others
Known To Self
Not Known To
Self
FREE
BLIND
HIDDEN
UNKNOWN
81. KEEP IT BALANCED
Individual Needs
Team Needs
Task Needs
• Be included
• Open sharing
• Clarity
• Feel secure
• Stay together
• Task value
• Personal value
• Know its resources
• Acceptance
• Comfort
• Enjoy itself
• Data
• Be effective
• Mission value
• Rules
• Be free to join
• Harmony
• Collaboration
• Be well regarded
• Survive conflict
• Progress
• Completion
I Needs
WE Needs
IT Needs
83. Conditions of Problem Solving
Possess skills
Experience success
Be rewarded
Not fear failure
84. Problem Analysis Steps
1. Recognize the problem
2. State the performance gap
3. Specify the problem
4. Identify critical distinctions
5. Look for changes
6. Generate possible cause
7. Verify most possible causes
8. Apply corrective action
