Redefining Projects For an Age of Complexity
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Slides for my talk at Java SI 2016 conference
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Redefining Projects For an Age of Complexity
- 1. Redefining projects for an age of complexity_ Jovan Vidic
- 3. 3 Why was this project doomed to failure?
- 4. 4 Why was this project doomed to failure?
- 5. 5 History of (modern) project management
- 8. 2 + 2 = ?
- 9. 796 x 457 = ?
- 21. Anchoring Bias Anchoring is a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the "anchor") when making decisions. 21 Cognitive Biases
- 22. Bandwagon Effect The bandwagon effect is a psychological phenomenon whereby people do something primarily because other people are doing it, regardless of their own beliefs, which they may ignore or override. 22 Cognitive Biases
- 23. Projection bias The tendency to unconsciously assume that others (or one's future selves) share one's current emotional states, thoughts and values. 23 Cognitive Biases
- 24. Recency bias Recency bias is the name for the heavy influence that recent experience can have on our decision making. 24 Cognitive Biases
- 26. 26 Mythology of Agile software development
- 32. https://stepsandleaps.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/complexity-map-overview.jpg Modern history of complexity
- 33. What is Complexity? Complexity is more a way of thinking about the world than a new way of working with mathematical models. 33 Understanding Complexity
- 34. What is Complex System? • It involves large numbers of interacting elements • The interactions are nonlinear, and minor changes can produce disproportionately major consequences. • The system is dynamic, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and solutions can’t be imposed; 34 Understanding Complexity
- 35. What is Cynefin? Cynefin, pronounced ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies the multiple factors in our environment and our experience that influence us in ways we can never understand. 35 Understanding Complexity- CYNEFIN
- 36. 36 CYNEFIN – SIMPLE DOMAIN
- 37. • Characteristics: • Repeating patterns • Clear cause and effect • Fact-based management • The Leader’s Job: • Sense, Categorize, Respond • Communicate in clear and direct ways • Interactive communication may not be necessary • Danger! • Complacency and comfort • Desire to make complex problems simple • Overreliance on best practice CYNEFIN – SIMPLE DOMAIN
- 38. 38 CYNEFIN – complicated DOMAIN
- 39. • Characteristics: • Expert diagnosis required • Cause and effect not immediately apparent to everyone • Fact based but—more than one right answer • The Leader’s Job: • Sense, Analyze, Respond • Create panels of experts • Listen to conflicting advice • Danger! • Experts can become overconfident and blind to other solutions • Viewpoints of non-experts are excluded • Analysis Paralysis CYNEFIN – complicated DOMAIN
- 40. 40 CYNEFIN – complex DOMAIN
- 41. • Characteristics: • Flux and unpredictability • Need for creative and innovative approaches • Unknown Unknowns • The Leader’s Job: • Probe, Sense, Respond • Increased levels of interaction and communication • Use methods that help generate ideas • Danger! • Temptation to fall back into habitual command-and-control mode • Temptation to look for facts rather than allowing patterns to emerge • Desire to cut short time involved CYNEFIN – complex DOMAIN
- 42. 42 CYNEFIN – chaotic DOMAIN
- 43. • Characteristics: • High turbulence • Many decisions and no time • High tension • The Leader’s Job: • Act, Sense, Respond • Look for what works instead of seeking right answers • Provide clear, direct communication • Danger! • Applying a command-and-control approach longer than needed • Missed opportunity for innovation • Chaos unabated CYNEFIN – chaotic DOMAIN
- 44. If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there 44 CYNEFIN – DISORDER DOMAIN
- 45. Find customers and run cheap experiments to check if your assumptions are correct 45 Scientific Method
- 46. 46 Structured exploration of uncertainty
- 47. 47 Lean thinking
- 51. high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology belief in stationary (sustained, stable outcomes) in a complex situation leads to blindness, which can yield catastrophic results
- 52. Any tool/methodology/framework can be misused