HYBRID WARFARE: FIRST LESSONS AND NEW CHALLENGES

1. HYBRID WARFARE:
UKRAINIAN LESSONS
YEVHEN MAHDA
INSTITUTE OF WORLD POLICY
IHOR SIKORSKY NTUU KPI
+380504447799
ROZUMAHA@GMAIL.COM

2. HYBRID AGGRESSION –
HYBRID WARFARE
 Hybrid aggression - one state desires to impose its will on another,
without formally violating the international law, using mechanisms of
influence, not just elements of hostilities
 Hybrid aggression may be displayed in economic, energy, information,
cultural and other spheres
 Ukraine faces the hybrid WAR, as far as the military component is
undoubtful (due to UNO data, at least 13000 died), the Crimea is
annexed, the war in the Donbas region is continuing

3. THE FOOTHOLDS OF
HYBRID AGGRESSION
 Crimea and Donbas were on the periphery of Ukraine's state policy
 Crimea and Donbass were constantly in the Russian information field
 The presence of the Russian Black Sea Navy Fleet in Crimea
 The negative perception of Crimean Tatars in Kyiv, distrust to them
 Russian was free to lead propaganda in Crimea and the Donbass
 The official geopolitical position of Ukraine was blurred

4. MANIFESTATIONS OF
HYBRID AGGRESSION
• Disinformation on the state level
• Discreditation of Ukraine in the eyes of the West partners (Russia Today, Olgino)
• Massive information attacks and numerous fakes in social media
• Economic pressure and sanctions
• Energy leverages (i.e., gas transit)
• Aggression in humanitarian sphere

5. PUTIN IS
INDIFFERENT
TO THE
ELECTION
RESULTS

6. DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ARE DEPENDENT
ON THE ELECTION RESULTS

7. MOTIVATION OF
RUSSIA
 Intensive use of the new type of hybrid weapon
 Effective destabilization in the country with the possibility to broadcast the
results of the influence to another countries, EU, in particular
 A showcase of undermining the trust to the democratic values
 The interference is multi-pronged and cross-border
 Sanctions as an answer are doubtful
 There is no legislation for countering the hybrid interference neither in Ukraine,
nor in civilized world

8. BELIEVE IT OR NOT
 IS LOVE ALL
AROUND???
 NO!
 EVERYTHING MAY
BECOME AN
INSTRUMENT OF
HYBRID WARFARE

9. NEW RUSSIAN HISTORY POLICY
 75TH anniversary of the victory in World War II pushes Russia to revise the history
of the war in general
 Intent to use anti-Semitism as a factor of discrediting Poland, Ukraine, Baltic
countries
 Hyperbolising Russia’s role in defending Nazism through the manipulations with
archival materials
 Deepening the contradictions between the different parts of Europe
 Manipulations with the problem of collaborations with the Nazi during World
War II

10. UKRAINE:
SPECIFICITY OF DEFENSE
 The construction of the Army and security services against which Russia used the
thermite tactics in 2010 – 2013
 Restoration of the military history of Ukraine, traditions of the army
 Decommunisation and overcoming the postcolonial syndrome
 Developing and further support the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine
 To work on the growing part of Ukraine’s language in informational space
 Limitation of Russian TV channels broadcasting, using Russian social media and search
engines
 Struggle for energy independence
 European and Euro-Atlantic integration as components of the victory in the hybrid war

11. UKRAINIAN CONCLUSIONS
 Disruption and conquering of Ukraine is not the final goal of Russia
 The main objective is the disruption of the European Union
 Kremlin uses the democratic procedures in its interests very skillfully
 Disputes with EU countries do not pose a military threat to Ukraine
 The victory in hybrid warfare is possible only due to internal changes in
Ukraine
 The fundamental purpose of Ukraine is to continue the Euro-Atlantic
integration

12. GENERAL INFERENCES
 Hybrid warfare can be finished only with hybrid peace
 Russia bets on the standard methods, which strengthens due to the speed
of information spread
 Despair is the primary weapon of hybrid warfare
 Civilised world does not have the instruments of the effective answer to this
Russian hybrid challenge.
 Russian hybrid warfare threw Ukraine into a dilemma – to change or to
disappear