Presented by Kurt Callaway This session highlights the best student products from the award-winning graduate program in Foresight at the University of Houston. The session will include the best essays, forecasts, scenarios, and plans from the next generation of professional futurists.

1. The Future ofThe Future of
Harvesting Space ResourcesHarvesting Space Resources
The World Futures Society Conference – July 2014The World Futures Society Conference – July 2014
Orlando, FloridaOrlando, Florida
Kurt CallawayKurt Callaway
Foresight (Futures Studies) Graduate ProgramForesight (Futures Studies) Graduate Program
University of HoustonUniversity of Houston

2. Expected FutureExpected Future
(Baseline Scenario)(Baseline Scenario)
Domain: harvesting spaceDomain: harvesting space
resources; specificallyresources; specifically
material resources frommaterial resources from
Near Earth ObjectsNear Earth Objects
(NEOs).(NEOs).
Time frame: twenty yearsTime frame: twenty years
((~~2033).2033).
The domain is still relativelyThe domain is still relatively
immature.immature.

3. By 2033 . . .By 2033 . . .
. . . Humanity is routinely present. . . Humanity is routinely present
in Earth orbit.in Earth orbit.
Using inexpensive probes, theUsing inexpensive probes, the
hunt for candidates had begunhunt for candidates had begun
around 2015.around 2015.
Within five years, a number ofWithin five years, a number of
possibilities found among thepossibilities found among the
thousands of known NEOs.thousands of known NEOs.
Swarms of robotic mining craftSwarms of robotic mining craft
were dispatched to the mostwere dispatched to the most
promising asteroids.promising asteroids.

4. These in turn . . .These in turn . . .
. . . returned hundreds, then. . . returned hundreds, then
thousands of tons ofthousands of tons of
frozen water.frozen water.
The water began arrivingThe water began arriving
back at Earth aroundback at Earth around
2027 – twelve years after2027 – twelve years after
the prospecting started.the prospecting started.
A long time? The investorsA long time? The investors
didn’t think so.didn’t think so.

5. It was acceptable . . .It was acceptable . . .
. . . since success meant a. . . since success meant a
strong marketing positionstrong marketing position
for the companies.for the companies.
Parallels to deep-sea drillingParallels to deep-sea drilling
and mining ventures:and mining ventures:
• large initial capital outlaylarge initial capital outlay
• long project lifelong project life
• robotic technology thatrobotic technology that
mustmust work reliably yetwork reliably yet
autonomously.autonomously.

6. Water . . .Water . . .
. . . benefited all aspects of the. . . benefited all aspects of the
expanding space frontier.expanding space frontier.
Reduced the cost of manyReduced the cost of many
activities:activities:
• extended tourist stays in orbitextended tourist stays in orbit
• satellite rebuilding, refuelingsatellite rebuilding, refueling
• orbital debris reductionorbital debris reduction
• manned space stationsmanned space stations
The first Chinese manned moonThe first Chinese manned moon
mission in 2030 “topped off” inmission in 2030 “topped off” in
Earth orbit with propellantsEarth orbit with propellants
cracked from asteroid water.cracked from asteroid water.

7. Plentiful water . . .Plentiful water . . .
. . . is the “ore.”. . . is the “ore.”
Separated into hydrogen andSeparated into hydrogen and
oxygen using solar power, itoxygen using solar power, it
becomes a high-efficiencybecomes a high-efficiency
propellant.propellant.
Launch costs reduced as muchLaunch costs reduced as much
as 90%, depending on theas 90%, depending on the
mission.mission.
Operational fuel no longer needsOperational fuel no longer needs
to be lifted from Earth.to be lifted from Earth.

8. The number of people . . .The number of people . . .
. . . working in orbit has increased. . . working in orbit has increased
significantly, and now thesignificantly, and now the
10,000 pounds of water/annum10,000 pounds of water/annum
needed for each person isneeded for each person is
already there.already there.
Organizations have also found itOrganizations have also found it
cheaper to buy water icecheaper to buy water ice
already in orbit to use asalready in orbit to use as
radiation shielding.radiation shielding.
Several centimeters of waterSeveral centimeters of water
protects against solar radiationprotects against solar radiation
and cosmic rays.and cosmic rays.

9. Availability now in 2033 . . .Availability now in 2033 . . .
. . . of water may support the US. . . of water may support the US
manned expedition to orbitmanned expedition to orbit
Mars, which might launch thisMars, which might launch this
year during the first of theyear during the first of the
decade’s two windows.decade’s two windows.
Provisioning with asteroid waterProvisioning with asteroid water
will alleviate the mission’swill alleviate the mission’s
launch costs.launch costs.
It will still be high, since onlyIt will still be high, since only
water and not metal iswater and not metal is
available so far from asteroidavailable so far from asteroid
resources.resources.

10. The reduction in cost . . .The reduction in cost . . .
. . . could contribute toward. . . could contribute toward
a Mars mission thata Mars mission that
includes an actual landingincludes an actual landing
– on one of the Martian– on one of the Martian
moons.moons.
A manned station on theA manned station on the
moon of Deimos withmoon of Deimos with
tele-exploration of Marstele-exploration of Mars
would drop the overallwould drop the overall
cost considerably.cost considerably.

11. Back in 2025 . . .Back in 2025 . . .
. . . the mining organizations. . . the mining organizations
shifted attention to metal-richshifted attention to metal-rich
asteroids.asteroids.
Lots of propellant was available,Lots of propellant was available,
and remote mining technologyand remote mining technology
was improving.was improving.
Prospecting spacecraft hadProspecting spacecraft had
already identified metal-already identified metal-
bearing asteroids.bearing asteroids.
The companies were flush withThe companies were flush with
revenue from sales of depotrevenue from sales of depot
water and fuel.water and fuel.

12. The products of metal mining . . .The products of metal mining . . .
. . . haven’t made it back to Earth. . . haven’t made it back to Earth
by 2033 yet.by 2033 yet.
HoweverHowever, the prospect of arriving, the prospect of arriving
asteroid metals has alreadyasteroid metals has already
begun to have an economicbegun to have an economic
effect.effect.
Prices drop as buyers anticipate aPrices drop as buyers anticipate a
vastly increased supply.vastly increased supply.
Investors flee precious metals forInvestors flee precious metals for
items that will maintain value:items that will maintain value:
industrial metals, carbonindustrial metals, carbon
credits, diamonds, and sugar.credits, diamonds, and sugar.

13. This was not unanticipated . . .This was not unanticipated . . .
. . . Even in the 20. . . Even in the 20thth
Century,Century,
planners recognized newplanners recognized new
space resources couldspace resources could
affect the globalaffect the global
economy.economy.
The fall in metals pricesThe fall in metals prices
opened the possibility ofopened the possibility of
new technology that wasnew technology that was
infeasible in a worldinfeasible in a world
where the price of rarewhere the price of rare
metals remained high.metals remained high.

14. An analogy is the history . . .An analogy is the history . . .
. . . of aluminum. Once regarded. . . of aluminum. Once regarded
as more precious than gold.as more precious than gold.
Only after its price dropped, didOnly after its price dropped, did
aluminum become a widely-aluminum become a widely-
used building material andused building material and
alloy component.alloy component.
The increase in rare metals willThe increase in rare metals will
act similarly: depressed pricesact similarly: depressed prices
initially, but creating muchinitially, but creating much
greater demand within newgreater demand within new
products and uses.products and uses.

15. In summary . . .In summary . . .
. . . The expected future of. . . The expected future of
space resources is one ofspace resources is one of
enabling many aspectsenabling many aspects
future civilization.future civilization.
From the innovation of newFrom the innovation of new
products no longerproducts no longer
constrained by materialconstrained by material
costscosts
To the more affordableTo the more affordable
expansion of humans’expansion of humans’
presence and activitypresence and activity
beyond low earth orbit.beyond low earth orbit.

16. Additional DevelopmentsAdditional Developments
Since this forecast was crafted in mid-2013,Since this forecast was crafted in mid-2013,
additional considerations should beadditional considerations should be
monitored as possible change indicators:monitored as possible change indicators:
• Effect of the Outer Space TreatyEffect of the Outer Space Treaty
• Efficiency of asteroid resource extractionEfficiency of asteroid resource extraction
• The Elvis Equation (no, not Presley…)The Elvis Equation (no, not Presley…)

17. Bibliography –Bibliography –
 http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/04/planetary-resources-will-have-personal.htmlhttp://nextbigfuture.com/2012/04/planetary-resources-will-have-personal.html
 http://www.geekwire.com/2013/deep-space-industries-entering-asteroidmining-world-creates-competition-http://www.geekwire.com/2013/deep-space-industries-entering-asteroidmining-world-creates-competition-
planetary-resources/planetary-resources/
 http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/
 http://www.planetaryresources.com/asteroids/usage/http://www.planetaryresources.com/asteroids/usage/
 http://www.planetaryresources.com/asteroids/composition/http://www.planetaryresources.com/asteroids/composition/
 http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2074/1http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2074/1
 http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/04/26/asteroid-mining-no-crazier-than-deep-sea-drilling-advocates-say/http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/04/26/asteroid-mining-no-crazier-than-deep-sea-drilling-advocates-say/
 httphttp://www.esa.int/TEC/Clean_Space/SEMOBFNW91H_0.htmlhttphttp://www.esa.int/TEC/Clean_Space/SEMOBFNW91H_0.html
 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/24/content_11425131.htmhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/24/content_11425131.htm
 http://deepspaceindustries.com/explore/http://deepspaceindustries.com/explore/
 http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/ast02nov_1/http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/ast02nov_1/
 http://www.adl.gatech.edu/research/tff/radiation_shield.htmlhttp://www.adl.gatech.edu/research/tff/radiation_shield.html
 http://www.nasa.gov/news/media/trans/obama_ksc_trans.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/news/media/trans/obama_ksc_trans.html
 http://www.space.com/11437-mars-moons-exploration-astronauts-red-rocks.htmlhttp://www.space.com/11437-mars-moons-exploration-astronauts-red-rocks.html
 http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1112523850/asteroid-mining-venture-could-change-supplydemand-ratio-on-http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1112523850/asteroid-mining-venture-could-change-supplydemand-ratio-on-
earth/earth/
 National Space Society, "Ad Astra" Winter 2012, p. 20National Space Society, "Ad Astra" Winter 2012, p. 20
 http://www.aluminiumleader.com/files/File/19century_eng.pdfhttp://www.aluminiumleader.com/files/File/19century_eng.pdf
 http://www.kemcom.net/EconAnal.pdf, page 4http://www.kemcom.net/EconAnal.pdf, page 4
Image credits: 2: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov; 3: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats; 4: http://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/space-flight/mining-asteroids/0; 5: http://www.popsci.com (Kevin Hand); 6:Image credits: 2: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov; 3: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats; 4: http://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/space-flight/mining-asteroids/0; 5: http://www.popsci.com (Kevin Hand); 6:
http://www.cleanwateraction.org/programinitiative/protecting-drinking-water-0; 7: http://hydrogencarguide.com; 8:http://www.cleanwateraction.org/programinitiative/protecting-drinking-water-0; 7: http://hydrogencarguide.com; 8:
http://web.archive.org/web/20011207025921/spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/station/transhab/html/s99_05363.html; 9: http://lightsinthedark.wordpress.com/2012/10/06/; 10:http://web.archive.org/web/20011207025921/spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/station/transhab/html/s99_05363.html; 9: http://lightsinthedark.wordpress.com/2012/10/06/; 10:
http://www.space.com (credit: Lockheed-Martin); 11: http://www.astrobio.net (Christine Daniloff/MIT); 12: http://www.agricorner.com; http://geology.com (iStockphoto / Greg Stanfield);http://www.space.com (credit: Lockheed-Martin); 11: http://www.astrobio.net (Christine Daniloff/MIT); 12: http://www.agricorner.com; http://geology.com (iStockphoto / Greg Stanfield);
http://www.copper-manufacturers.com; http://www.carboncreditcertificates.com; 13: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fcv_PEM.shtml; 14: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons; 15:http://www.copper-manufacturers.com; http://www.carboncreditcertificates.com; 13: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fcv_PEM.shtml; 14: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons; 15:
http://spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=39848 & http://www.space.com/17856-nasa-deep-space-station-moon-farside.html (David A. Kring, LPI-JSC Center for Lunar Science and Exploration)http://spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=39848 & http://www.space.com/17856-nasa-deep-space-station-moon-farside.html (David A. Kring, LPI-JSC Center for Lunar Science and Exploration)