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Creative Thinking Steps In Policy Development

Presented by John Schmidt and Patricia Sommerville

The traditional linear model of policy making isn't serving government or affiliated organizations in this complex and complicated time. Building on the successful incorporation of foresight methodologies into the policy-making process at last year's Public Service Foresight Network meeting, Patricia and John present a range of creative thinking possibilities to promote engagement, make better, more robust policies, and explore the practical aspects of integrating foresight into the existing policy context of one or a group of organizations.

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Creative Thinking Steps In Policy Development

  1. 1. Creative Thinking Steps in Policy Development • John Schmidt • Patricia Sommerville World Future Society July 12, 2014
  2. 2. • Policy, Planning, Intelligence & Foresight • Creative Tools − Creative Questioning − Organizational Effectiveness − Change Management • Keys to Presenting to Senior Leaders Topics
  3. 3. About YOU and Your Experiences Have you worked with or for an organization that has formally attempted to set up a foresight unit or to add a foresight function to an existing unit? •How was it mandated and configured, especially in relation to other units? •How well did it perform? •Was it successful (did it survive)? What are you looking for here?
  4. 4. Policy, Planning, Intelligence & Foresight
  5. 5. • Anticipatory Governance • Solving Complicated Problems • An Interactive System Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight
  6. 6. The U.S. Government operates using institutions designed for an era gone by. The consequences are an increasing number of collisions with “unforeseeable events” and opportunities lost. In chaotic circumstances, small actions can powerfully influence ultimate outcomes. We cannot rely indefinitely on crisis management, no matter how adroit. We need to get ahead of events. Anticipatory Governance:
  7. 7. Not an easy sell, even if there is broad agreement on the need. Near-term emergencies always distract from the longer-term challenges. The question is how to achieve strategic coherence. The systems of government for dealing with major issues are outmoded for today’s kind of problems, which are “complex” rather than “complicated.” Anticipatory Governance:
  8. 8. Anticipatory Governance, Practical Upgrades, L. Fuerth, p.4
  9. 9. Foresight is:
  10. 10. Planning Policy, Planning, Intelligence
  11. 11. The Futures Cone Dr Joseph Voros (adapted from Henchey, 1978)
  12. 12. Science Fiction Science Fiction Foresight Foresight Description & ExplanationIntelligence Policy & Planning What is. What if? What if? Assessment, Forecasting & Warning Assessment, Forecasting & Warning Reality Space Decision SpaceInformation/Analysis Space What is likely. What is likely. •Possible/Imaginable •Plausible •Probable/Predictable •Past/Present Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight
  13. 13. Plausible Predictable Foresight Intelligence/ Research • Emerging trends • Scenarios/what-ifs • Weak signals • Outliers, Black swans • Resiliency factors • Drivers & Signposts • Current/Operational • Tactical forecast • Strategic forecast • Current trends • Statistical predictions • Monitoring/Alerts Planning & Policy Decisions Actions HorizonNear Far Range of interest Requirements & Tasking Outcomes: •Intended •Unintended Feedback Feedback Feedback Feedback A Complete and Interactive System
  14. 14. ? Planning Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight
  15. 15. Intelligence +Foresight ? Policy +Foresight Planning +Foresight Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight
  16. 16. Planning Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight
  17. 17. Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight External Foresight SMEs External Foresight SMEs Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight
  18. 18. Creative Tools
  19. 19. How to Create Engagement • Understanding Your Organizational Effectiveness • Change Management: Moving from No to Yes • Creative Questioning
  20. 20. Organizational Effectiveness
  21. 21. Vision…. Future… Intuitive…. Horizon Detailed… Concrete… Observable… Specific Practical… Face-to-Face… Measurable… Inspiration… Investment… Contribution… Communication The Organizations Alive! Model
  22. 22. Change Management
  23. 23. • Awareness • Desire • Knowledge • Ability • Reinforcement • Awareness of the need for change • Desire to participate and support the change • Knowledge on how to change • Ability to implement required skills and behaviors • Reinforcement to sustain the change ADKAR ©
  24. 24. Employee morale fluctuates during each phaseEmployee morale fluctuates during each phase Current State Transition Period Future StateCurrent State Transition Period Future State Morale Time Human Impact Denial or False Hope  Immobilized  Anger or Panic Depression  Letting Go/Accepting Reality Testing  Merging past and present  Internalization/ Commitment  Change Management Stages
  25. 25. Integrate Change Management and Project Management ©
  26. 26. The Change Management Team Change Senior leaders Senior leaders Project team Project team EmployeesEmployeesManagers & supervisors Managers & supervisors Change management ©
  27. 27. Creative Questioning
  28. 28. Creative Questioning • Ask the audience questions that : − make assumptions explicit − enable action − address issues • Use a tool to anticipate questions, create action − Starburst − Spiral
  29. 29. Starburst Questioning Issue Why? What? W hen? How ? W h o ?
  30. 30. Spiral ‘Call to Action’ Tool IssueTiming Steps Success
  31. 31. Keys to Unlocking Senior Leaders • Know your audience − ‘What’s in it for me?’ • Enthuse, with evidence − Inspire, connect, persuade • Anticipate resistance − Make mitigation part of the strategy • Open strong, finish stronger
  32. 32. The Four Domains Contextual Organizational Interpersonal Personal
  33. 33. “If the person you are talking to doesn't appear to be listening, be patient. It may simply be that he has a small piece of fluff in his ear.” A.A. Milne, Winnie-the-Pooh
  34. 34. Testing Engagement • What did you get from this? • What is your key ‘takeaway’? • What will you do with it? • What else did you want to get?
  35. 35. - Contact - John Schmidt Patricia Sommerville