Twenty years into the Agile experiment, we still sometimes hear that Agile is inherently unpredictable, or that Scrum teams don't care about planning beyond the current sprint. There's nothing in the Manifesto about predictability - after all, we respond to change, not follow plans, right? But on a closer inspection, Agile *does* concern itself with making work more predictable. It's right there in the Manifesto and the Scrum Guide if you know where to look. Taken together, the principles and values behind Agile describe a powerful model for teams to get work done reliably and consistently, hinging on simplicity, utilization and dependency management. Applying these concepts makes it easier to predict how and when a product will come together and helps Scrum Masters and others avoid self-defeating management techniques.

1. Agile’s Hidden
Predictability Model
Hunter Tammaro

2. excella.com | @excellaco
Hunter
Tammaro
• 10 years working with Agile –
Scrum, Kanban, scaled approaches
• Federal and non-profit
• Fan of the great outdoors, coffee,
sandwiches and Columbo
Agile Coach & Xpert

3. excella.com | @excellaco

4. Predictability
How closely does a
forecast
of a project match up
to the reality of its
execution?

6. Popular
forecasting
methods
• Guess
• Compare to a similar,
completed item
• Project current trends forward
• Decompose, size items and
divide by average velocity
• Statistical, e.g. Monte Carlo
…or some combination of these

8. Predictability
How closely does a
forecast
of a project match up
to the reality of its
execution?

9. Complicated Complex

10. What makes
a team
predictable?
How does Agile
approach
predictability?

11. Dependencies

12. Dependencies
Agile Principles:
• Business people and developers must work together daily
throughout the project.
• The best architectures, requirements, and designs emerge
from self-organizing teams.
• Build projects around motivated individuals. Give them the
environment and support they need and trust them to get
the job done.
Scrum Guide:
• Scrum Teams are cross-functional, meaning the members
have all the skills necessary to create value each Sprint.

14. Shared services
Large, complex projects often
have specialized needs
• Requirements and design
• Interfaces with other software
and business units
• Compliance and approval
Lead to unpredictable delays
in delivery

15. Definition of Done
Should a Definition of
Done include
deployment to
production?
Maybe.

16. Deployment as dependency
Where production releases are a
labor-intensive process, they happen
less often
• Work is reviewed and released in
large batches
• High variability in throughput from
sprint to sprint
Metrics no longer reflect reality!
Average

17. DevOps principles
If not tooling, just work together!
Definition of Done
Should be something the team can
meet within a sprint
Cross-functional teams
Or as close as you can get
How can
we get
better?

18. Consistency and Simplicity

19. Consistency and simplicity
Agile Principles:
• Simplicity – the art of maximizing the amount of work not
done – is essential.
• Welcome changing requirements, even late in development.
Agile processes harness change for the customer's
competitive advantage.
Scrum Guide:
• The Scrum Team commits to achieving its goals and to
supporting each other.
• What will happen is unknown. Only what has already
happened may be used for decision making.

20. Size of assigned work
Scales vary: entire projects, large epics,
user stories and small tasks
• Uncertainty in the quantity of work
to predict
• Not necessarily a bad thing, but a
challenge

23. Refinement transparency
Give developers insight into
upcoming work
Work decomposition
From stories to projects, small
means predictable
Leave Britney teams alone!
Support the team you have; don’t try
building a new one during a crisis
How can
we get
better?

24. Utilization and WIP

25. Utilization and WIP
Agile Principles:
• Agile processes promote sustainable development. The
sponsors, developers, and users should be able to maintain
a constant pace indefinitely.
Scrum Guide:
• Working in Sprints at a sustainable pace improves the
Scrum Team’s focus and consistency.

26. Utilization and WIP
Forecasts treat capacity as an
abstract resource
• High utilization: Account for all the
available capacity
• High WIP: Demonstrate progress
on all our priorities

27. More
impediments
• Fatigue
• Stress
• Cutting corners
• Distractions

30. Visualize and limit WIP
Stop starting, start finishing
Plan on slack time
Don’t try to maximize utilization
Implement a pull system
Teams self-select work when they’re
ready for it
How can
we get
better?

31. How will you achieve
predictability?

32. How to connect
hunter.tamaro@excella.com
@htammaro
https://linkedin.com/in/wmhunter Excella Consulting
@excellaconsulting
Connect With Us!
@excellaco

33. excella.com | @excellaco