Russia's central bank cut its key interest rate once again on Monday, in a further bid to
stimulate economic growth in the country. Led by Governor Elvira Nabiullina, the Central
Bank of Russia (CBR) cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 11.5 percent, in line with analyst expectations. It is the fourth consecutive month that it has opted to do so.
4. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ Russian central bank cuts key rate
Russia's central bank cut its key interest rate once again on Monday, in a further bid to
stimulate economic growth in the country. Led by Governor Elvira Nabiullina, the Central
Bank of Russia (CBR) cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 11.5 percent, in line with analyst
expectations. It is the fourth consecutive month that it has opted to do so. In a statement, the
bank said it was, "taking account of lower inflation risks and persistent risks of considerable
economy cooling." It comes after the bank raised the rate to a lofty 17 percent in December
2014 in an attempt to deal with the runaway inflation brought about by the weakened ruble.
✍ Greek Issue
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde warned Greece it would get no leeway on
a huge debt payment as EU ministers warned they were looking at a "plan B" for a possible
default. Eurozone finance ministers holding a crisis meeting in Luxembourg pressed Athens to
finally present a credible reform plan and end the five-month standoff between Greece's
anti-austerity government and its creditors.
But with Athens owing a 1.6-billion-euro payment to the IMF at the end of June and Greece's
international bailout due to expire the same day, they were pessimistic about the chances of a
deal today. "There will be no period of grace" for the loan payment, Lagarde told reporters
before she joined the ministers for their Eurogroup meeting. "I have a term of June 30 - if it's
not paid by July 1, it's not paid."
Greece's creditors are withholding the last 7.2 billion euros of its bailout until Athens caves in,
but leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has refused to make changes to pensions and VAT
rates. Europe's most powerful leader, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, weighed in on the
issue earlier today when she told German lawmakers in the Bundestag she was "still confident"
that a deal was possible.
But the mood was darker in an overcast Luxembourg, where ministers were openly broaching
scenarios such as a Greek exit from the euro if it defaults on its debts. "The next step to make
the deal credible, also financially sustainable, will have to come from the Greek side," the
Dutch Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters. He added that he did "not have a lot
of hope" that the Greeks would present a new plan today. No deal at the Eurogroup meeting
means the issue will likely go to the wire at an EU leaders' summit in Brussels on June 25 and
26.
5. ✍ China
China's outbound direct investment soared in the first five months to 278.4 billion yuan (USD
44.84 billion), official data showed, closing a gap with foreign direct investment inflows as
local firms flock overseas for growth opportunities. The 47.4 percent jump in outbound
investment, made by non-financial firms, built on the 36.1 percent rise in the first four months.
In the first five months of the year, FDI grew 10.5 percent from a year earlier to 331.0 billion
yuan, marking a slight slowdown from 11.1 percent growth in January-April, the Commerce
Ministry said on Thursday. The government has been encouraging firms to invest abroad to
slow down the rapid build-up of foreign exchange reserves and help local firms become more
competitive internationally. Analysts expect outbound investment will soon match and overtake
the weakening investment inflows, reflecting a cooling economy which in turn seems to have
prompted a large jump in outbound flows as businesses looked for growth elsewhere. "The
outbound investment is quickening. It's very likely to surpass foreign direct investment this
year," said Han Xiushen, a researcher at the commerce ministry's think-tank.
✍ BULLION
✍ Gold
One day after surging more than $25 an ounce, gold futures were relatively flat on Friday amid
a stronger dollar and ongoing concerns of a Greek default on its sovereign debt.On the Comex
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for August delivery lost 0.10 or 0.01% to
$1,201.90 a troy ounce.
Gold futures traded in a tight range of 1,198.10 and 1,203.90, ending the week up more than
1.7%. Gold finished with its best five-day period since the week ending on May 15 when it
surged more than 3%. The precious metal then fell by more than 1.2% for three consecutive
weeks before rallying to close last week up 0.95%.Gold likely gained support at 1,184.00, the
low from June 1 and was met with resistance at 1,208.90, the high from May 25.One day after
high-level talks in Luxembourg broke-off without a deal in the five-month long Greek debt
negotiations, the European Central Bank reportedly increased the cap on its Emergency
Liquidity Assistance fund for banks in Greece by €3.3 billion. It came days after depositors
took out a reported €2.0 billion from Greek banks in a 72-hour period, underscoring their lack
of trust in the teetering economy.Greece is running out of time before it owes the International
Monetary Fund a bundled loan payment of €1.5 billion on June 30. At the same time, the
remaining €7.2 billion of a €240 billion stimulus package from its international creditors is set
to expire at the month.
On Monday, all 27 members of the European Union are scheduled to be present at an
emergency summit in what could be Greece's final opportunity to avoid a default. During an
appearance in St. Petersburg, Greece prime minister Alexis Tsipras indicated that he will be
"working for success" at Monday's summit, while adding that "those who invest in crisis and
6. terror scenarios will be proven wrong."Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Germany chancellor
Angela Merkel said it isn't too late for Greece to complete a deal as long as it agrees to the
reforms required.
Gold is considered a safe haven for investors in periods of severe economic instability. It could
also be an alternative for European investors concerned with the value of equities and
government bonds if Greece leaves the euro zone.
Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president John Williams reiterated on
Friday that an interest rate hike could be appropriate in 2015, while adding that waiting too
long for lift-off poses added risk. The remarks were the first public comments by a Fed
governor since the Federal Open Market Committee opted not to issue any definitive wording
on the timing of a rate hike on Wednesday.The U.S Dollar Index ,which measures the strength
of the dollar versus a basket of six other major currencies, reached a session-high of 94.70 in
U.S. morning trading before falling slightly back to 94.39, up 0.20%. Dollar-denominated
commodities such as gold become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar
appreciates.
✍ ENERGY
✍ Natural gas
Natural gas futures extended losses on Thursday, despite data showing that U.S. natural gas
supplies rose less than expected last week.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Natural gas
for delivery in July shed 2.8 cents, or 1.0%, to trade at $2.827 per million British thermal units
during U.S. morning hours. Prices were at around $2.842 prior to the release of the supply
data.A day earlier, natural gas prices rose to $2.955, the most since May 22, before turning
lower to close at $2.855, down 3.9 cents, or 1.35%. Futures were likely to find support at
$2.764 per million British thermal units, the low from June 15, and resistance at $2.955, the
high from June 17.The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that
Natural gasin the U.S. in the week ended June 12 rose by 89 billion cubic feet, compared to
expectations for an increase of 93 billion and following a build of 111 billion cubic feet in the
preceding week. Supplies rose by 112 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the
five-year average change is an increase of 87 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.433 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 730
billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 46 billion cubic feet above the five-year
average of 2.387 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.Meanwhile, updated weather
forecasting models pointed to warmer-than-average temperatures in the eastern third of the U.S.
through June 24, boosting near-term demand expectations for the heating fuel.Demand for
natural gas tends to fluctuate in the summer based on hot weather and air conditioning
use.Approximately 49% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the
Energy Department.Elsewhere on the Nymex, Crude oil for delivery in August tacked on 22
cents, or 0.36%, to trade at $60.55 a barrel, while heating oil for July delivery dipped 0.05% to
trade at $1.908 per gallon.
7. ✍ Crude Oil
Crude oil futures tumbled over 1% on Friday, as the U.S. dollar recovered from the Federal
Reserve's latest policy statement and was boosted by some of Thursday's U.S. economic
reports. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for July delivery hit $59.97 during
European early afternoon hours, down 87 cents, or 1.44%. A day earlier, Nymex oil prices
gained 49 cents, or 0.81%, to end at $59.95.
The dollar found support after data on Thursday showed that U.S. Initial jobless claims fell by
12,000 to 267,000 last week, pointing to ongoing strengthening in the labor market.A separate
report showed that factory activity in the U.S.mid Atlantic region expanded at the fastest rate in
six months in June.Data also showed that showed that U.S. Consumer prices increased at the
fastest rate in more than two years in May, climbing 0.4% after a 0.1% gain in April. But
economists had forecast an increase of 0.5% and inflation was still well below the Fed’s 2%
target.
Demand for the safe-haven dollar was also boosted after a meeting between Greek and euro
area officials broke down on Thursday. The current bailout for Greece expires on 30 June when
Athens is also due to repay the International Monetary Fund around €1.6 billion.IMF Chief
Christine Lagarde said if the payment is not made on time, Greece will be declared to be in
default and would disqualify itself from receiving any further IMF funds.The U.S. Dollar
index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major
currencies, was up 0.42% at 94.61 in European afternoon hours, off Thursday's one-month lows
of 93.30.
The greenback had come under broad selling pressure after the Federal Reserve lowered both
its U.S. growth forecast and its interest-rate projections at its policy meeting on Wednesday,
prompting investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike.
Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for July delivery slumped 3.7 cents, or 1.42%, on Friday to
settle at $2.569 a pound after hitting a daily low of $2.558, a level not seen since March 18.
✍ BASE METAL
✍ Copper
Copper prices bounced off a three-month low on Thursday, as the U.S. dollar weakened after
the Federal Reserve lowered both its U.S. growth forecast and its interest-rate projections,
prompting investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike.On the
Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for July delivery climbed 2.1
cents, or 0.82%, to trade at $2.625 a pound during European morning hours.A day earlier,
copper hit $2.598, a level not seen since March 19, before ending at $2.604, down 1.1 cents, or
0.44%. Futures were likely to find support at $2.595, the low from March 19, and resistance at
$2.681, the high from June 15.The U.S.Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength
against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.55% at 93.96, the lowest
level since May 18.
8. A weaker dollar boosts demand for raw materials as an alternative investment and makes
dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.Fed Chair Janet Yellen said
Wednesday that the central bank wanted to see “more decisive evidence” of sustained growth
before raising rates, but acknowledged that the economy has “expanded moderately” after a
weak first quarter.Market players now looked ahead to the release of key U.S. data later in the
session for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future path of monetary
policy.The U.S. is to release a string of data, including reports on consumer prices, initial
jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.Elsewhere, gold future for
August delivery rallied $18.90, or 1.61%, to trade at $1,195.90 a troy ounce, while silver
futures for July delivery jumped 31.6 cents, or 1.98% to trade at $16.26 an ounce.Meanwhile,
investors continued to monitor developments surrounding talks between Greece and its
international creditors, amid growing concerns that the country could default on its debt be
forced out of the euro zone.
Europe wants Greece to make spending cuts in order to secure a deal that will unlock €7.2
billion in bailout funds and prevent Athens defaulting on its debts when its bailout expires at
the end of the month.European finance ministers were to hold talks in Brussels later Thursday,
but expectations for a deal were not high. Failure to strike a deal would result in Greece
defaulting on payments and exiting the euro zone.
✍ Zinc
Zinc futures fell 0.91 per cent to Rs 129.95 per kg today as speculators reduced positions amid
sluggish domestic demand and profit-booking. Zinc futures for June 2015 contract, at MCX,
were trading at Rs 129.95 per kg, down by 0.91 per cent after opening at Rs. 131.40 against the
previous closing price of Rs. 131.15. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 129.60 till the trading.
(At 4.15 PM today). Traders said the fall in zinc prices in futures trade was due to sluggish
domestic demand in the spot market amid profit-booking at prevailing levels by speculators.
However, losses were curbed due to the weak in the zinc stockpiles at the London Metal
Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by
2150 metric tonnes to 468550 metric tonnes as on June 19, 2015.
And On Wednesday at the domestic markets due to the surge in the zinc stockpiles at the
London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the weak demand for the commodity. LME zinc
stocks rose by 4675 metric tonnes to 472150 metric tonnes as on June 17, 2015. Zinc futures
for June 2015 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 133.70 per kg, down by 0.34 per cent after
opening at Rs. 134.15 against the previous closing price of Rs. 134.15. It touched the intra-day
low of Rs. 133.05 till the trading. (At 3.50 PM today). Major refined zinc exporting countries
are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importing countries are
China, USA and Germany.
9. ✍ Lead
Lead prices fell 1.05 per cent to Rs 113.20 per kg in futures trade today after participants
reduced exposure amid a weak trend at the spot market on sluggish domestic demand. At the
MCX, Lead futures, for the June 2015 contract, is trading at Rs 113.20 per kg, down by 1.05
per cent, after opening at Rs 114.75, against a previous close of Rs 114.40. It touched an
intra-day low of Rs 112.90 till the trading. (At 3.26 PM today) Traders said besides subdued
demand from battery-makers in the domestic spot market, profit-booking at current levels by
speculators weighed on lead futures. However, losses were curbed due to the decline in the lead
stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the
commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 750 metric tonnes to 173400 metric tonnes as on June 19,
2015.
✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ GM mustard developed by DU under fire
The Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC) under the environment ministry is
about to approve commercialization of a genetically modified (GM) variant of mustard food
crop developed by Delhi University (DU), civil society groups said on Wednesday."DU's GM
mustard is essentially a backdoor entry for herbicide-tolerant crops into India, in the guise of a
public sector GM crop.Commercialization would serve no purpose other than to increase
profits for corporate food manufacturers. India is the third largest producer of the crop
internationally. The GM mustard - Dhara Mustard Hybrid 11 or DMH 11 - has been developed
by DU's Centre for Genetic Manipulation of Crop Plants with support from the Department of
Biotechnology and National Dairy Development Board.The entire bio-safety assessment of this
GM mustard is shrouded in secrecy with repeated efforts including RTI requests to seek
information on the statutory safety assessments having remained unanswered from GEAC.
✍ Chana
Chana prices fell further by 1.35 per cent to Rs 4,322 per quintal in futures trade on friday,
triggered by higher supplies at the spot markets from producing belts.At the National
Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in July moved down by Rs 59 or 1.35
per cent to Rs 4,322 per quintal with an open interest of 1,54,230 lots.Also, the commodity for
delivery in August contracts traded lower by Rs 51, or 1.14 per cent to Rs 4,421 per quintal in
86,620 lots.
Offloading of positions by speculators amid higher supplies from producing belts against
sluggish demand at the spot market kept chana prices lower at futures trade. Where as Chana
prices were down by 1.60 per cent to Rs 4,430 per quintal in futures trade on thursday as
speculators indulged in booking profits after recent gains amid low demand at the spot
market.However, lower output estimates capped the fall.At the National Commodity and
10. Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in July was trading lower by Rs 72, or 1.60 per cent
to Rs 4,430 per quintal with an open interest of 1,47,700 lots.Likewise, the commodity for
delivery in June contracts fell by Rs 61, or 1.36 per cent to Rs 4,421 per quintal in 1,410 lots.
Apart from profit-booking by speculators at existing levels, fall in demand at the spot markets,
mainly pulled down chana prices in futures trade.
✍ Refined soya oil
Refined soya oil prices were up by 0.39 per cent to Rs 586.50 per 10 kg in futures trading on
tuesday as speculators indulged in creating fresh positions, taking positive cues from spot
market on pickup in demand.In addition, restricted supplies from producing regions in the
physical market supported the upside. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange,
refined soya oil for delivery in August moved up by Rs 2.30, or 0.39 per cent to Rs 586.50 per
10 kg with an open interest of 2,26,945 lots.Similarly, the oil for delivery in June contracts
traded higher by Rs 1.90, or 0.31 per cent to Rs 609.10 per 10 kg in 12,145 lots. Strong demand
in the spot markets against restricted supplies from growing regions, influenced refined soya oil
prices at futures trade.
✍ Mustardseed
Tracking a firming trend at the physical market on rising demand, mustardseed prices spurted
Rs 64 to Rs 4,169 per quintal in futures tradeon wedeneday as speculators created positions.At
the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, mustardseed for delivery in June contracts
rose Rs 64, or 1.56 per cent, to Rs 4,169 per quintal, with an open interest of 17,250 lots.Also,
most-active July month contracts were trading higher by Rs 60, or 1.45 per cent, to Rs 4,193
per quintal, in an open interest of 77,380 lots.Firming trend at the spot market on strong
demand from oil mills and vanaspati units against tight supplies from growing regions led to
the rise in mustardseed prices.
✍ Castorseed
Castorseed futures traded lower by Rs 81 to Rs 4,340 per quintal in the national capital on
monday amid a weak trend at spot markets due to slackened demand at prevailing levels.At the
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, castorseed prices for October contracts
tumbled Rs 81, or 1.83 per cent to Rs 4,340 per quintal and open interest stood at 110
lots.Castorseed for delivery in July lost Rs 59, or 1.42 per cent to Rs 4,102 per quintal, with an
open interest of 2,04,900 lots. June delivery shed Rs 56, or 1.39 per cent to Rs 3,980 per
quintal, having an open interest of 12,430 lots.Weak trend at the markets due to absence of
buying support at prevailing levels against increased supplies in the market, mainly dragged
down the castorseed prices at futures trade.
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