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Where do all the engineers come from A

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Vaughn Edelman
Vaughn Edelman
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Where do all the engineerscome from? Althoughthere hasbeenarecentlull inspending, Ihave beenspeculatingonthe nuclearmarket place for the next15 yearsand have triedtoestimate whatsortof expenditurewe mightexpect. I have prepareda spreadsheetbasedonfactsI have derivedfromNDA publicationsand included otherspends/projectswhichmighthappen,andincluded myspeculative “guess”of their approximate valuesandtimescales. The figuresare a sortof worstcase (i.e.highestspend) scenario,butall of which are plausible. All the figuresare at today’srates. The program of worksis purelymyestimationof whatcouldbe achieved. The projectsinclude mystabof whatwe mightneedtobuildif we adoptthe MOX fuel approach(as favouredbythe government),tosentence ourplutoniumstockpile. Please letme knowif youhave more accurate data and I can revise accordingly. There isan implicitassumptionthatthe spendrate isproportional tothe numberof people needed to deliverthe works. The results(although“guesstimates”atbest) are worrying;showingthatina fewyearswe may need10 -12 timesasmany staff to supportthe industry. As a NuclearVentilation,HVACandContainmentspecialist, Ican’tsee where we will getthe people to execute the assignments. Letme know whatyou think.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 M ag no x & R S R L £ 6 0 2 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 £151 C ap e nhurs t £ 4 1 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 D S R L £ 2 0 9 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 £52 S L £ 1,9 50 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 £488 LLWR £ 6 9 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 £17 S p ring f ie ld s £ 4 1 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £10 £ 2 ,9 12 Hinkle y C 1 £ 12 ,0 0 0 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 Hinkle y C 2 £ 12 ,0 0 0 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 £429 Wilf a B 1 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 Wilf a B 2 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 S iz e w e ll C 1 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 S iz e w e ll C 2 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 M o o rs id e A 1 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 M o o rs id e A 2 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 M o o rs id e A 3 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 Old b ury B 1 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 Old b ury B 2 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 B rad w e ll ( Es t imat e d S t art D at e ) £ 8 ,0 0 0 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 B rad w e ll ( Es t imat e d S t art D at e ) £ 8 ,0 0 0 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £400 £ 8 ,0 0 0 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 Hart le p o o l £ 8 ,0 0 0 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £286 £ 12 8 ,0 0 0 S t o rag e Po nd £ 5,0 0 0 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 Pure x Plant £ 2 0 ,0 0 0 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 £714 M OX Plant £ 5,0 0 0 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 £250 Evap Plant £ 2 ,0 0 0 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 £71 A d d it io nal S t o re s £ 12 ,50 0 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 £208 C le an- up Plant s ( i.e . S IX EP) £ 15,0 0 0 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 £536 GD F £ 2 0 ,0 0 0 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £333 £ 79 ,50 0 To t al S p e nd #### £728 £728 £1,157 £1,157 £1,985 £1,985 £2,671 £2,671 £3,815 £3,815 £4,929 £4,929 £5,329 £5,329 £5,729 £5,729 £6,998 £6,998 £7,648 £7,648 £8,048 £8,334 £8,334 £8,620 £8,291 £8,291 £7,891 £7,891 £7,241 £7,241 £6,413 £6,413 £5,584 £5,584 £4,898 £4,898 £4,213 £4,213 £2,848 £2,848 £2,448 £2,448 £2,448 £2,448 £1,913 £1,913 £1,913 £1,913 £1,913 £1,627 £1,627 £1,341 £1,270 £1,270 £1,270 £1,270 £1,270 £1,270 £1,270 £1,061 Exis t ing S p e nd #### £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 £728 Es t imat e d Ext ra Wo rk S p e nd s #### £0 £0 £429 £429 £1,257 £1,257 £1,943 £1,943 £3,087 £3,087 £4,201 £4,201 £4,601 £4,601 £5,001 £5,001 £6,270 £6,270 £6,920 £6,920 £7,320 £7,606 £7,606 £7,892 £7,563 £7,563 £7,163 £7,163 £6,513 £6,513 £5,685 £5,685 £4,856 £4,856 £4,170 £4,170 £3,485 £3,485 £2,120 £2,120 £1,720 £1,720 £1,720 £1,720 £1,185 £1,185 £1,185 £1,185 £1,185 £899 £899 £613 £542 £542 £542 £542 £542 £542 £542 £333 %Inc re as e in S p e nd 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 0 2 6 2 0 2 7 2 0 2 8 2 0 2 9 2 0 3 02 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 52 0 16 2 0 17 2 0 18 2 0 19 2 0 2 0 Estimated Market Spends in the UK Nuclear Sector - 2016 - 2030 Pro je c t £ M illio n 2 0 16 2 0 17 2 0 18 2 0 19 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 9 2 0 3 0 Existing UK Nuclear Spends Proposed New Build Power Stations Buildings Required for MOX Fuels (Estimated on Basis that Fuel is in Reactors for 6 years) 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 6 2 0 2 7 2 0 2 8 0 5 10 15 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 Increasein number of staff/spend to supportthe nuclear sector

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Where do all the engineers come from A

  • 1. Where do all the engineerscome from? Althoughthere hasbeenarecentlull inspending, Ihave beenspeculatingonthe nuclearmarket place for the next15 yearsand have triedtoestimate whatsortof expenditurewe mightexpect. I have prepareda spreadsheetbasedonfactsI have derivedfromNDA publicationsand included otherspends/projectswhichmighthappen,andincluded myspeculative “guess”of their approximate valuesandtimescales. The figuresare a sortof worstcase (i.e.highestspend) scenario,butall of which are plausible. All the figuresare at today’srates. The program of worksis purelymyestimationof whatcouldbe achieved. The projectsinclude mystabof whatwe mightneedtobuildif we adoptthe MOX fuel approach(as favouredbythe government),tosentence ourplutoniumstockpile. Please letme knowif youhave more accurate data and I can revise accordingly. There isan implicitassumptionthatthe spendrate isproportional tothe numberof people needed to deliverthe works. The results(although“guesstimates”atbest) are worrying;showingthatina fewyearswe may need10 -12 timesasmany staff to supportthe industry. As a NuclearVentilation,HVACandContainmentspecialist, Ican’tsee where we will getthe people to execute the assignments. Letme know whatyou think.
  • 2. 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