Yhteiskunta joka vahvistuu kriiseistä, Leena Ilmola, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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Yhteiskunta joka vahvistuu kriiseistä, Leena Ilmola, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
- 1. YHTEISKUNTA JOKA VAHVISTUU KRIISEISTÄ www.xevents.com Sitra Leena Ilmola Sep 5 2013
- 2. Uncertainty is increasing.... The percieved probability of the events of Sept 2008 was 0,00000000000000000000007
- 3. Three different behavior patterns
- 4. Three elements of resilience 1. Adaptation to changed environment 2. Agility for opportunities 3. Active renewal
- 5. 7 Policy Implications for 777 shocks … diverse and distributed portfolios …. multiple roles … dispersed responsibility and empowerment … global participation … fast experiments …self-organized adaptation trust building in society
- 6. 7 solutions for 777 shocks NO Centralization Focusing Large organizations/systems Specialization Long investment intensive innovation Domestic collaboration Back to normal YES Distributed structure Diversification Networks of small units Multiple roles Experiments, combinations, fast failures International interaction Active renewal
Editor's Notes
- New World Order, where global organizations (UN), GTO, ISO )have a lot of power, even if there are areal organizations (as EU), the rules of the game are defined at the international level. It may even be possible that climate change will push us for global government, that is taking care of regulation, security and resource/income allocation issues. 2) World of blocs, in this scenario world consists of few competing blocs that are defined by intertwined political and commercial power. These blocs develop their own rules, technologies and also allocate resources within the bloc. World of blocs, in this scenario world consists of few competing blocs that are defined by intertwined political and commercial power. These blocs develop their own rules, technologies and also allocate resources within the bloc
- Seven solutions for 777 shocksDecisions have to be made every day, even if decision makers do not have a comprehensive information about potential developments of the decision making environment. Traditionally decision making have optimized the fit of the decision to the current, known circumstances and this have been a valid strategy in an environment that is relatively stable. The challenge enters to the picture when we know that there will be shocks, but we do not know what these shocks will be. Our solution is to find a solution that will optimize both the benefit in the current environment and in the unknown future. According to our approach we will stress test the national economy (or an organization strategy or a specific tactic plan) with seven various shocks and then try to find a solution that will increase potential for success across all of these different situations/worlds.Method in a nutshell in a box below.Our recommendation for a decision maker is to choose the alternative(s) that are increasing adaptability of the nation/organization/planned operation, to actively make decisionts that increase agility of the nation/organization so that new positive surprises or new opportunities can be seized when they occur. And the most important is to use every opportunity – especially the surprise – for renewal. Let us have a closer look at these areas of resilience by introducing some concrete examples revealed by the 7 Shocks and Finland project.Adaptability by diversityWhen the future is unknown, we cannot use traditional strategic planning and focus on certain predefined competences/resources/businesses. The only way to meet the requirements of the unknown is to build a portfolio that is diverse enough so that some part of it will be valid and useful in every environment. If one part of our national economy looses its foothold, there are other sectors that benefit of the changed environment. The 7 Shocks and Finland case produced a couple of good examples. If the price of energy (fossil fuels, uranium - action 15) is fluctuating in the global market, and simultaneously extreme weathers are causing severe train to the power grids, it is beneficial to support local solutions, even a house specific energy portfolios (action 7) that consist of various sources of energy; firewood, solar and geothermal energy. Decisions that support this structure both increase the share of renewables in energy production, meet austerity requirements by decreasing the infrastructure investments and improve both national and household level resilience. Instead of defining core sectors for development input, it seems that it is more efficient to favor various networks of small and medium size companies (action 3). The portfolio analysis showed us in a very concrete way that adaptation requires multiple roles, both in national and individual level. Different ideas of novel positioning as a specialists in the global value network, were useless in any other kind of environment (action 17). Instead it is more useful to develop a competences in integrating various special areas (actions 3, 5, 13 and 22). Later on in the processing of the austerity plan for the Finnish Government and Regional authorities, we noticed that multiple roles would increase adaptability of a region. If people have more than one skill, they are able to use other skills when one of them is not needed. The radical novel idea is offer a regional civil servants a special support so that they are able to develop their own small businesses and stay in the region instead of moving out of the town when their job as civil servant is terminated. As one of the 7 shocks proved us, the key problem for the country is britelness of the forest industry, due the fact that for a paper machinery specialist it is impossible to find any other similar job. The third area of adaptability is also dealing with structural issues of the economy.