Water Family Meeting and Symposium on Water Equity in South-East Europe and the Mediterranean 28-29 March 2019 Palazzo Zorzi, Venice (Italy) - András Szöllösi-Nagy, former Secretary UNESCO IHP, former rector UNESCO-IHE, Governor of the World Water Council

1. 1
jj

2. No way, José!
Yet another crisis?
What??
WATER??!!??
Oh, please, NOOOO!

3. IS THE WATER CRISES INEVITABLE
OR
IT IS MANAGEABLE BY BETTER GOVERNANCE AND
EQUITY?
EXPECTED CHANGES OF
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES
András SZÖLLÖSI-NAGY
National University of Public Service, Budapest, Hungary
UNESCO International Hydrological Programme, Vice Chair for Region II
Sustainable Water Futures Programme, Brisbane, Australia
UNESCO International Hydrological Programme
Symposium on Water Equity in South East Europe and the Mediterranean
Palazzo Zorzi, Venice (Italy)
29 March 2019

4. Equity
IS AN ETHICAL CONCEPT:
the quality of being fair and impartial.
"equity of treatment"
synonyms: fairness, fair-mindedness, justness, justice,
equitableness, fair play; More impartiality, even-handedness, lack
of discrimination/bias/prejudice/bigotry, egalitarianism;
honesty, integrity, rightness, rightfulness, rectitude, uprightness,
righteousness, properness, decency, goodness, honourableness,
scrupulousness, conscientiousness;
reasonableness, sensibleness;
disinterest, disinterestedness, neutrality, objectivity, balance,
open-mindedness

5. LOOMING
WATER
CRISES
The time of easy water is
over
HYPO/THESIS:

6. 6
• Is the cycle changing?
• Increased risks?
• Growing vulnerability?
• More disasters ?
• Less waterforpeople?
• Crisis is looming?
• What crisis?
• Resource?
• Governance?
• Global orlocal?
GLOBAL WATER
CYCLE
ISSUES

7. A CRISIS OF
GOVERNANCE
7

8. GOVERNANCE
versus
MANAGEMENT
8

9. GOVERNANCE:
Doing the right
things
MANAGEMENT:
Doing things right 9

10. Rule of Law
Equity
Accountability
Transparency
Integrity
Gender
Informed decisions
Knowledge transfer and sharing from
data to science
Conflict resolution
Participation
Inclusive approach 10
CRITERIA FOR GOOD GOVERNENCE

11. Area proportional with non-access
to drinking water
2011

12. Billions are
being
left behind
BASIC WATER SUPPLY
BASIC SANITATION
WWDR2019:
“Leaving no
one behind”

13. WASH
AGENDA
13

14. Korea
Czech
ドイツ
China
Nepal
India
Bangladesh
Bolivia
Haiti/ Jamaica
Uruguay
USA
Mexico
Ecuador
Peru
Micronesia
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
Senegal
Ethiopia
Turkey
Austria
Kenya
France Afghanistan
Russia
Sri Lanka
Flood Drought
Major floods and droughts worldwideMajor floods and droughts worldwide
Germany China
USAKoreaChinaGermany
Kenya There is pressing need to develop advanced risk
management on water hazard in order to secure
human life and ensure sustainable socio-
economic development and poverty alleviation.
ETHICS?

15. ADDITIONAL CHALLENGES THAT NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED FROM AN
EQUTY POINT OF VIEW:
• HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES
• CLIMATE ADAPTIVE WATER
STRATEGIES
• TRANSBOUNDARY ISSUES
• ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
• CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
15

16. Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs)

17. WATER AS THE CENTER PIECE OF THE SDGs

18. LOCAL WATER
CONFLICTS

19. COCHABAMBA, BOLÍVIA,1999
19

20. 20
IRAN, 2018
EASTERN
CENTRAL EUROPE
ROMA POPULATION

21. LOCAL CHALLENGES
HAVE
GLOBAL BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS

22. (Photo: NASA)
The world’s freshwater:
HOW MUCH WE HAVE?
SURFACE WATERS (in lakes, reservoirs) and rivers
•41,000 km3
•The James Bond phenomenon
.007
(90% in lakes: 40% Lake Baikal, 20% Great Lakes,
The rest in smaller smaller ponds, like Lake Balaton)
97.5% VS 2.5%

23. GLOBAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES
Relation between water availability and population

24. Rockström, et al., Nature,
2009
DNV GL Report 2014

25. TRENDS OF NON-SUSTAINABLE WATER USE
[1000 KM3/YR]

27. US National Intelligence Council (2012)
“Watermaybecomeamoresignificant
contentionthanenergyorminerals out to
2030at bothintrastateandinterstatelevels"

28. 28

29. IS THERE
INDEED A
LOOMING
WATER
CRISES?
Is the time of easy water

30. Water security key challenges of the 21st century
people lack access to
safe water and 2.5 billion
to adequate sanitation.
750
million
human beings are killed
each year from water related‐
disasters and diseases.
6-8
million
of the human population live
in arid areas. By 2030, half of
the population will be living in
areas of high water stress.
85% of the world’s total wastewater is
discharged without adequate or
any treatment.
85%
transboundary aquifers
shared by 2-4
countries
600
decline in population of
freshwater species in
just thirty years.
50 %
Source: Data collected by UNESCO-IHP a and IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM

31. SUPERIMPOSED ON ALL THIS …

32. The climate is
changing !!!
(Yap, for 4 billion years now …)
32
HEADLINE NEWS!!!!!

33. NEGATIVE IMPACT

34. Number of natural disaster events since 1900 to 2007
Total
Water-
related
Earth-quake
Numbero
500 events/year
400
300
200
100
0

35. Does the cycle accelerate?
Is it measurable?

36. THE DRIVERS

37. 1950
Source:
U.N. Population Division
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

38. 2015
Source:
U.N. Population Division
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

39. Global change drivers:
• Population growth, movement,
migration and age structures
• Geo-political changes and
realignments
• Trade and subsidies
• Technological changes
• Climate change
U.S.Bureauofthe
Census

40. 40

41. 41

42. 42

43. 43

44. THE GREAT MIGRATION WAVES
OF THE PAST 100,00 YEARS

46. Pieter Breugel, the Elder
46

47. Climate change is effecting our
environment, our societies and our
cultures
(Source: IPCC)

48. WILL WE HAVE MORE
FLOODS ?
Expected Impacts of Global Changes on Water
Resources

49. Water hazards and related nexi
are major challenges
 Intensifying and increasing occurrence of water
related hazard in many part of the world
 Serious concern on climate change such as
extreme hydrologic events and sea level rise

50. Flood Disaster in Pakistan (August, 2010)

51. Flood Disaster in Korea (September 21, 2010)

52. Rio de Janneiro, Brasil (January, 2011)

53. Flood Disaster in Brisbane, Australia (January, 2011)

54. 54
Brisbane suburbia …

55. FLASHFLOODS

56. 18 OCTOBER, 2019, SOUTHERN FRANCE, FLASHFLOOD
Aude départment
128 SETTLEMENTS IMPACTED
14 DEAD, 75 SERIOUSLY INJURED
567 MONTHS RAINFALL IN ONE DAY

58. ORSZÁGOS MŰSZAKI IRÁNYÍTÓ TÖRZS (OMIT)
2006. március 30 - április 17.
Budapest
FLOODS

59. 59

60. FLOOD LOSSES IN
FUNCTION OF GDP

61. ARIDITY
LAKE MEAD

62. NOT TOO MUCH HOPE ...
UNLESS POLITICAL LEADERS STICK TO THE PARIS
AGREEMENT

64. CLIMATE CHANGE
IS ALL ABOUT
WATER

65. KEY TO SUSTAINABILITY:
CLIMATE
ADAPTIVE
WATER STRATEGIES
65

66. DO WE HAVE A
CHOICE?
WE NEED TO INCREASE THE
RESILIENCE
OF OUR SYSTEMS
66

67. ADAPTATIO
N
RESILIENCE

68. ADAPTATION OPTIONS:
 MORE STORAGE
 MORE HYDROPOWER
 MORE GROUNDWATER USE
 MORE INLAND NAVIGATION
 MORE CONSERVATION
 INTERBASIN WATER TRANSFER
 BETTER WATER GOVERNANCE
 BUT AREN’T ALL THESE
CONTRADICTORY?

69. Global change impacts
• Global change is more than global climate variability/change
• It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions
• A constellation of changes, many global in domain
For example, we see large changes in:
NOAA Vitousek (1994)
Mackenzieetal
(2002)
Richards(1991),WRI
(1990)
Reid&Miller
(1989)

70. From: Steffen et al. 2004

71. 71
STATIONARITY IS
DEAD
The story of the 200-year flood
New technologies are needed, such as AI

72. ANTROPOCEN

73. The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemical
and Human Components

74. 2
4
3
5
6
1
0
GlobalTemperature(°C)
IPCC Projections
for 2100
N.H.Temperature(°C)
0
0.5
1
-0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Lower Risk for
Instabilities
High Risk
for Instabilities

75. WAROVERWATER
OR
TRANSBOUNDARY
COOPERATION OVER
WATER?

76. SE Europe and the Mediterranean shows a good example

77. 77

78. WATER IS A SOURCE OF
COOPERATION:
WATER CONNECTS AND
DOES NOT DIVIDE
78

79. THE DATA ISSUE

80. IF YOU CAN’T MEASURE
IT (NEAR) REAL TIME
AND IF YOU DON’T HAVE
THE
RIGHT DIGITAL
TECHNOLOGY
YOU CAN’T MANAGE IT80

81. (Source: D. Solomatine)
81
Remotely sensed data

82. urce: D. SolomatineSo
Flow of information in a Hydroinformatics systems
Earth observation,
monitoring
Numerical Weather
Prediction Models
Data modelling,
integration with
hydrologic and
hydraulic models
Access to
modelling
results
Data  Models  Knowledge  Decisions
Decision
support
Map of flood probability

83. 83

84. BIG DATA
84Terra bytes Petabytes Exabytes … Terra Hertz speed
Data revolution:

85. SCIENCE
TECHNOLOGY
MODELING

86. . 86
Modeling is the heart …
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Technologies support the whole
information cycle, and integrate data,
models, and humans

87. DAILY PRAY OF THE HYDROLOGICAL
MODELER:
OH, LORD, MAKE
THE WORLD
LINEAR AND
NORMALLY
DISTRIBUTED.

88. Near real-time assessment of water conflict
potential and involuntary migration
Composite index of
conflict potential:
•River Threats plus
•Fragile States plus
•Climate Shock plus
•Transboundary
Complexity
*( © Vörösmarty, 2018. Use of this material is restricted)

89. DIGITAL WATER
MANAGEMENT
INTEGRATED
SYSTEMS
(IoT, AI) 89

90. High Precision Earth Systems Tools
•Satellite data
•Data assimilation
•Simulation models
•Geospatial analysis / GIS
Huge progress but…

91. LOOMING WATER
CRISES
The time of easy water is indeed
over

92. Where do we go from here?

93. WILL THERE BE
ENOUGH WATER FOR
THE HUMANS AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
IN THE 21ST
CENTURY?

94. WE NEED SOLUTIONS
NOW
YES, BUT
94

95. IS MORE
TECHNOLOGY
THE ANSWER?
95

96. NO

97. We need to generate…
• The political will to … DO IT
• The capacity to … DO IT RIGHT
• The resources to … DO IT RIGHT
NOW
It is part of the answeronly ….

98. • SCIENCE / ENGINEERING:
80% DONE
• SOCIAL SCIENCE:
80% IS TO BE DONE
(INCLUDING EQUITABLE
WATER PRICING)

99. The poorest are theThe poorest are the
most vulnerablemost vulnerable

100. WATER IS AN ETHICAL ISSUE
THE ANSWER IS
ESSENTIALLY
CULTURAL
100

101. IN THE PAST, UP TO THE MODERN TIMES,
WATER HAS SHAPED HUMAN
CIVILIZATIONS
IN THE FUTURE
IT IS THE HUMAN CIVILIZATION THAT WILL
SHAPE WATER
THERE IS A TWO-WAY FEEDBACK BETWEEN
WATER AND CIVILIZATION THAT IS VITAL
HYPO/THESIS TESTING

102. Water Supply
Aqueduc of Jerwan, Nineveh
Head of king Maništušu
EXAMPLES
Temple of Ištar,

103. QANAT
THE FIRST GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY EXCHANGE
UNESCO Center on Qanats,
Yazd, Iran
‫تتتت‬
kahriz, khettara, foggara, galeria

104. Irrigation System of Aflaj, Oman

105. HOW CAN WE INCORPORATE
CULTURE AND
HERITAGE
INTO WATER RESOURCES
DEVELOPMENT AND
MANAGEMENT?
ISN’T IT A KEY TO SUSTAINABLE
DEVELPMENT?
105

106. The challenge we all have
How to put water in the minds
of people?

107. CAPACITY
DEVELOPMENT,
CAPACITY
DEVELOPMENT,
CAPACITY
DEVELOPMENT,
CAPACITY
DEVELOPMENT,
CAPACITY
DEVELOPMENT,
CAPACITY 107

108. “Anybody who can solve the
problems of water will be
worthy of two Nobel Prizes,
one for peace and one for
science.”
(President John. F. Kennedy)
108
FINAL MESSAGE: