Presentation given by Professor Jim Watson, Research Director of UKERC, as part of the Plenary Session: CCS in the UK Energy Landscape at the UKCCSRC Biannual Meeting - CCS in the Bigger Picture - in Cambridge, 2-3 April 2014

1. Click to add title
CCS in an Uncertain Policy
Landscape
Jim Watson, Research Director
UKCCSRC Biannual Meeting, Cambridge, 2-3 April 2014

2. Uncertain political context

3. ‘We need to cut our energy costs. We’re going to do
this by investing in new sources of energy: new nuclear
power, renewables, and a shale gas revolution. We’re
going to do this by promoting energy efficiency.’
George Osborne MP, Budget Speech, March 2014
Uncertain political context

4. Our energy security is best served by minimising our
exposure to the volatile global fossil fuel markets,
enhancing our energy efficiency and maximising home-
grown low carbon energy, as well as cleaner
indigenous reserves, such as natural gas, to help ease
the low carbon transition.
Ed Davey MP, Secretary of State for Energy & Climate
Change, Mar 2014
Uncertain political context

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UKERC flagship project:
Energy strategies under uncertainty
Aims:
To generate, synthesise and communicate evidence about
the range and nature of the risks and uncertainties facing UK
energy policy and the achievement policy goals
To identify strategies for mitigating risks and managing
uncertainties for public policy and the private sector

6. 3. Innovation systems & development
 Analysis using the CCC’s revised 4th
carbon budget pathway to 2030 as a
point of reference
 Methods for appraising uncertainty
 Detailed focus on CCC pathway
elements: e.g. heat, power
generation, electric vehicles
 Analysis of systemic drivers and
impacts: natural resources, public
attitudes and ecosystem services
 Includes engagement with
‘alternative’ higher carbon pathway
Energy strategies under uncertainty

7. Energy strategies under uncertainty
Keep the lights on
& bills down at the
same time
Source: Committee on Climate

8. Power sector
decarbonisation
6.TPA
Tech
costs too
high Lack of
tech
progress
Wrong
type of
capital
Lack of
capital
Uncertainties &
Power Sector
Decarbonisation

9. Click to add titleInvestment uncertainties

10. Click to add titleTechnology cost uncertainties
2006 ranges from 2006 UK Energy White paper
2011 ranges from Arup 2011 and Parsons Brinckerhoff 2011

11. Power sector
decarbonisation
6.TPA
Bio-
energy
resources
Public
attitudes
Tech
costs too
high Lack of
tech
progress
Wrong
type of
capital
Lack of
capital
Policy
and
politics
Uncertainties &
Power Sector
Decarbonisation
Eco-
system
services

12. Click to add titlePublic attitudes and values
Public attitudes often framed very narrowly by expert
debates: on ‘acceptance’ of specific technical options
Publics often pragmatic about change, but unlikely to
settle for change out of line with longer-term
trajectories that reflect their underlying values.
Beware of potential ‘non transitions’: continued fossil
fuel use, carbon capture and storage and bio-energy
If public values not included in decision-making and
new ‘social contract’ for change, resistance to energy
system transformations or specific conflicts more likely

13. Power sector
decarbonisation
6.TPA
Bio-
energy
resources
EV
Effective-
ness
Heat
pump
effective-
ness
Public
attitudes
Tech
costs too
high Lack of
tech
progress
Wrong
type of
capital
Lack of
capital
Policy
and
politics
Transport and heat
decarbonisation
Uncertainties &
Power Sector
Decarbonisation
Eco-
system
services

14. Heat sector
decarbonisation
Transport sector
decarbonisation
Power
grid con-
straints
Heat
pump
costs;
per-
formance
Electricit
y decarb
progress
Transport and heat decarbonisation:
More flexibility?

15. Exploring uncertainties:
electric heating?

16. Heat sector
decarbonisation
Bio-
energy
resources
Transport sector
decarbonisation
District
heating
business
models
Other
low C
heat
vectors
Power
grid con-
straints
Heat
pump
costs;
per-
formance
Energy
efficiency
progress
Electricit
y decarb
progress
Transport and heat decarbonisation:
More flexibility?
Transport
modes /
demand
EV costs
and per-
formance
Per-
formance
of other
techs

17. Exploring uncertainties:
electric vehicles
Consumers
preferences; characteristics;
usage; knowledge
Societal
Public opinion; social
norms
Economic
macroeconomics;
commodity markets
Technological
vehicles, credentials
Infrastructure
Distribution; standards
Policy, including
regulations & targets
Source: Morton, Anable
and Brand, 2014

18. Click to add titleSome emerging conclusions
 Power sector decarbonisation by 2030 is critically important:
o No shortage of capital, but policy frameworks, market structures &
business models may need to change to attract that capital
o Limited low carbon options to 2030: but will be tough to keep them
all ‘in the low carbon race’. Limitations on political capital too?
 More flexibility with heat and transport decarbonisation:
o Delayed electricity decarbonisation not a show stopper for heat
o More action needed on energy efficiency to provide more flexibility
o Support for demonstration & early deployment of heat & transport
options (e.g. district heating; EVs) to ‘open up’ & test options
 Need to move beyond narrow framing of public attitudes:
transitions that align with values more likely to be successful
 Natural resources and ecosystem service impacts may limit
options and flexibility; driven partly by global trends

19. Click to add titleImplications for CCS
Extent of CCS contribution to power (& industry) sector
decarbonisation depends on relative costs /
performance. Demonstration remains essential.
Risks higher than for many other low carbon
technologies: implications for finance availability
CCS in group of potential ‘non transitions’ that need to
be balanced by broader progress to sustainable energy
CCS vulnerable to natural resource availability
uncertainties, including for biomass availability
Compared to nuclear and some renewables, CCS is
‘under the radar’ of political debate: but firm
demonstrations are likely to change that

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Thanks
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk
https://twitter.com/watsonjim2