Twelve Heuristics for Solving Tough Problems Faster and Better

ME
Half‐day Tutorial
6/3/2013 8:30 AM

"Twelve Heuristics for Solving Tough
Problems Faster and Better"

Presented by:
Payson Hall
Catalysis Group, Inc.

Brought to you by:

340 Corporate Way, Suite 300, Orange Park, FL 32073
888‐268‐8770 ∙ 904‐278‐0524 ∙ sqeinfo@sqe.com ∙ www.sqe.com

Payson Hall
Catalysis Group, Inc.

A systems engineer and project management consultant, Payson Hall is a founding member of
Catalysis Group, Inc. Formally trained as a software engineer and computer scientist, he has
performed and consulted on a variety of hardware and software systems integration projects in
both the public and private sectors throughout North America and Europe during his thirty-year
professional career. He has been a writer and featured speaker on topics of systems
integration, project management, and risk management. Payson's rare combination of IT project
management experience and communication skills has made him a valued member of many
project review and project oversight teams.

Heuristics for Better Problem Solving

Tips for Effective Problem
Solving in the Real World

Heuristics for Better Problem Solving V1.0 © Catalysis Group, Inc. 2013

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1

Workshop Objectives
l
l
l

l

Practice problem definition
Explore improved problem solving methods
Examine and apply heuristics (tactics) to
enhance the problem solving process
Have fun while accomplishing other objectives


Slide

2

What’s in this for YOU?
After this workshop you should be able to…
§ Define problems with greater insight
§ Generate a wider variety of solutions
§ Improve problem solving through increased
awareness, tactics, & tools


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3

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4

Exercise #1


Tactics
Tactics are rules or methods which help us apply
knowledge to achieve a goal
§ Bricks are for building (Contextual Knowledge)
§ Bricks are heavy (Attribute Knowledge)
§ Uses for heavy things? (Analogy Tactic)
§ Generalize search for uses by examining other
attributes such as color, size, shape, hardness, and
composition (Attribute Knowledge + Analogy Tactic)


Slide

5

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6

Exercise #2


Overview/Agenda
Intro
Selfware
Verify
Identify
Select
Close

We are here

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7

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8

Problem Solving in Action (Demo)


Critical Aspects of Problem Solving
l

False starts are expected

l

Be suspicious of “obvious” solutions

l

Errors are OK

l

Uncertainty is guaranteed

l

Expect ambiguity

l

Confusion happens

l

Sometimes things get silly
Safety is important


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9

Problem Solving Ability Model
Tactics X Knowledge X Selfware = Ability
Tactics - Procedures for finding and implementing
ways to achieve particular near-term goals
Knowledge - Facts, truths, and principles gained
through experience or study
Selfware - Individual beliefs, dispositions and
“thinking” resources


Slide

10

Foundation: Abilities are Malleable
Increasing one or more of these factors results
in increased ability…

Kn
ow
le
d

Selfware

Selfware

Kn
ow
le
d

ge

ge

Tactics X Knowledge X Selfware = Ability

Tactics

Tactics


Slide

11

What is a “Problem”?
“A difference between things as desired and
things as perceived."
- D. Gause & G. Weinberg

Desired

Perceived
Current
State

Difference

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12

Dimensions of Problems
Problems can be span many dimensions: timesensitivity, risk, complexity, criticality, domain
expertise…
These dimensions determine:
§ How time & resources are invested in the problem
solving process
§ How much specialized knowledge is needed to
effectively solve the problem

All problems benefit from conscious evaluation

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13

Examples of Problems “In the Raw”
l

My neighbor is too noisy

l

Customers are complaining about quality

l

Our budget is insufficient to meet goals

l

System response time is unacceptable

l

The building is on fire

l

We aren’t managing our projects well

l

The stock crash wiped out my retirement


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14

Exercise: Identify Sample Problems
On a 3 x 5 card identify three candidate
problems that you find interesting


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15

What Does it Mean to “Solve” a Problem?
If a problem is “A difference between things as
desired and things as perceived”
…then solving a problem requires:
1. Reducing or eliminating the difference
2. Changing what is desired
3. Changing what is perceived
or
Some combination of these


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16

Sample Solutions (Quick, Dirty & Unfiltered)
My neighbor is too noisy…
§
§
§
§
§

Wear ear plugs
Convince your neighbor to be quieter

Learn to appreciate the sounds
Soundproof your house
Make noise so you can’t hear your
neighbor
§ Soundproof your neighbor’s house
§ Move (or convince your neighbor to
move)
§ Learn to tolerate the noise

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17

Problem Solving: Selfware
Intro
Selfware
Verify
Identify
Select
Close

We are here

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18

What is “Selfware”?
l

Your “Thinking Resources”

l

Your attitudes

l

Your beliefs about intelligence

l

Metacognition - Your personal problem solving
manager
Selfware impacts your problem solving ability &
can be leveraged to increase effectiveness


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19

Intelligence: “Malleable” or “Fixed”?
Belief that intelligence is “Malleable”
...you are born with a potential that can be developed
Performance on a task gives you information on that
specific task and whether you need to apply more
effort or new strategies

Belief that intelligence is “Fixed”
...you are born with specific amount & cannot change it
Performance on a task is a measure of what you were
born with
Malleable

?


Fixed
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20

Consequences of Belief
l

Meaning of Challenge and Failure

l

Perception of Effort and Persistence

l

Perception of Learning Opportunities

Studies show that adopting a belief in
the malleability of intelligence can lead to
improved performance


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21

Problem Solving: Verify Problem Definition
Intro
Selfware
Verify
Identify
Select
Close

We are here

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22

Problem Definition: How Extensive?
Basic

• Perceived State
• Desired State
• Difference

• Assumptions
• Data Collected to Date
• Multiple Representations
• Defined Solution Criteria

More Detailed

• Problem Model

Time Available

l

Problem Complexity
Problem Severity

l

Risk

l

Team Size

l

Investment

l

Sensitivity to Error

l

Value of an Audit Trail

l

• Root Cause(s)

l

l

• Quantified Difference
• Problem Boundaries

• Solution Constraints

Driven By:

Common Sense


Slide

23

Data Question
When you get information other than by direct
observation, remember the Data Question:

“What did you observe that makes
you believe that?”


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24

Perceptions of the Current State
First step in verification is gathering data about
the perceived current state:
§ Whose perception of the current state initiated
problem solving?
§ What data is available to substantiate perceptions
of the current state?
§ Where was the current state observed?
§ When did the observations occur?
§ What are the suspected causes?
§ Is there a history of this problem?
§ Who is affected by the problem?

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25

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26

Problems with Perception
Perceptions are a tricky blend of what we…
§ Observe
§ Believe we observed
§ Infer from observations

"Seeing is believing” - But
what we observe & believe we
observe have equal weight in
our minds

Exercise: Perception Quiz - What is This?
What might this be a picture of? Write your
answers on a sheet of paper… you have one
minute.


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27

Clarifying the Desired State
l

What are the “musts” and “wants” of the
desired state?

l

How will we know when the desired state is
reached?

l

What evidence would demonstrate that the
desired state has been attained?

Make target quantifiable/measurable

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28

Basic Problem Definition
Basis for subsequent problem solving:
§ Assures common understanding of problem
§ Based upon analysis to date
§ A statement of the perceived & desired states
Perceived State: Customer complaints concerning product increased
25% in fiscal year 2010 for same volume of product shipped (500
complaints received per 100,000 units shipped).
Desired State: Customer complaint rates return to pre-2010 rates,
using 2009 as the baseline rate of comparison (400 complaints
received per 100,000 units shipped).

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29

Exercise: Basic Problem Definition
Select a problem from your three candidates &
write up a basic definition:
l

What is the perceived state?
§ Whose perception?

l

What is the desired state?
§ Whose desire?

l

What is the difference between them?
§ Who cares about the difference?


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30

Pause & Reflect
l

Was the problem “analyzed away”?
§ Gain agreement from stakeholder(s), document
results & stop

l

Is further definition/analysis needed?

l

Have we identified multiple problems?
§ Do they have a common cause or should they be
addressed individually?
§ If possible, isolate a single target problem
§ Identify problems that will NOT be addressed during
this iteration of process


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32

Verifying the Problem Definition
Define
Problem

Definition
Insufficient

Verify
Definition

Problem

Lost
Interest

STOP

Confirmed

Continue

Challenges to Effective Problem Verification
§ Problem definitions that identify solutions
§ Mistaking perceptions for data
§ Blaming & judging
§ Failure to consider all impacted constituencies
§ Inadequate data analysis
§ Failure to identify root cause(s)
§ Mistaking assumptions for truths
§ Constituencies with vested interests
Too Broad

Too
Narrow
Slide

33

Problem Solving: Identify Possible Solutions
Intro

We are here
Selfware
Verify
Identify
Select
Close


Slide

34

Creativity is Natural…
…Just watch children at play. Creativity can be
stifled by:
§ Schools teaching “traditional” approaches
§ Peers who pressure us to conform
§ Organizations that feel threatened by change
§ People who tell us not to be silly


Slide

35

Factors that Foster Creativity
l

Recognize that everyone has creative abilities
and exercising them is not a test

l

Spend more time with creative people and with
people who value your creativity

l

Be curious and explore other knowledge
domains looking for unique solutions to
interesting problems

l

Be playful, laugh

l

Be comfortable and engaged


Slide

36

Factors that Inhibit Creativity
l

Being too perfectionist

l

Falling into ruts or routines (always doing the
same things in the same way)

l

Avoiding problem solving activities

l

Devaluing your own ideas

l

Rushing to judgment

l

Fearing mistakes

l

Being too serious


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Creativity Considerations
l

Creativity is important, but everything
you know is NOT wrong -- bring your
knowledge and experience too

l

Write down assumptions you identify

l

Be open to new information (may send
you back to Verify step)

l

Be open to the creativity of others

l

Don’t dismiss ideas prematurely

l

Experiment


Engagement & Persistence
l

A common cause of failure is premature
termination of the search for solutions

l

People are more willing to wrestle with
challenges & ambiguity when engaged

l

Use all time allocated to solution generation
(even after finding a good one)

l

Keep focused - expect chaos & hang on
Ambition is the path to success. Persistence is
the vehicle you arrive in. - Bill Bradley


Slide

39

Heuristics for Generating Solutions
What follows is a collection of heuristics for
generating solutions
Be on the lookout for some you already use & new
ones to add to your kit (a key skill is acquiring
& applying new heuristics)
Heuristic - A procedure (sometimes) helpful for
arriving at a solution -- from Greek heuriskin,
meaning “serving to discover”


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40

24 Problem Solving Heuristics
1.

Random Search/Trial & Error

13.

Opposite Thinking

2.

Divide & Conquer

14.

Contradictions

3.

Means-End Analysis

15.

Review the Rules

4.

Working Backwards

16.

Look for Patterns

5.

Analogy & Metaphor

17.

Get Help

6.

Perceptual Reorganization

18.

Review Models

7.

Brainstorming

19.

Test Assumptions

8.

Split/Half Method

20.

Change Attributes

9.

Simplification

21.

Reframe to Reduce Resistance

10.

Inventory/Reframe Resources

22.

Shift the Problem

11.

Micro/Macro Context Shift

23.

Change Perception

12.

Detour Solutions

24.

Change Desires


Slide

41

1. Random Search/Trial & Error
Random search may work if you have few
alternatives.
Systematic trial and error is better (less likely
to re-try solutions that failed previously)
l Applicable when problem is well defined and has
few alternatives
§ Which key on ring opens door?
§ Anagrams
l

These approaches are less effective as the
number of possible solutions goes up


Slide

42

2. Divide & Conquer
Some problems are amenable to layering or
partitioning into component problems. Subproblem selection & sequence should consider:
§ Opportunities for mid-course correction
§ Opportunities for learning about situation
§ Investment required and risks anticipated
§ Effects on other parts of the problem
§ Efficiency relieving problem symptoms


Slide

43

Divide & Conquer - Decryption Example

D O N A L D
+ G E R A L D
R O B E R T
Each letter stands for a unique digit 0 through 9
All you know is that D = 5
Can you decode the other letters?

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44

Example: Data Organization Tool
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

A
B
D

X

E
G
L
N
O
R
T


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45

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46

3. Means-Ends Analysis
l

l

l

Divide the distance between the
current state and the desired state
into one or more intermediate
desired states
Identify a solution to reach one or
more intermediate states
Means-Ends analysis is generally
intended to deal with complex
problems in which a comprehensive
strategy is difficult to envision at
the outset


Lilly Pad Puzzle
Water lilies on a certain
lake double on the
surface area every 24
hours.
From the time the first
water lily appears until
the lake is completely
covered takes 60
days.
On what day is the lake
1/2 covered?

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47

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48

4. Working Backwards
Imagine the desired
state and work
backward toward the
current state
Sometimes a
combination of
working forward and
working backward is
helpful

5. Analogy & Metaphor
“Analogies make the strange familiar and the
familiar strange” - William Gordon
Analogy Process
§ Recognition
§ Abstraction
§ Mapping

Analogy Types
§ Direct - compare to other
systems
§ Symbolic - create alternative
maps
§ Personal - Imagine yourself as
a participant in the process


Slide

49

6. Perceptual Reorganization

l
l

l

Restructure the problem to see it in a new way and
facilitate seeing new solutions
Perceptual reorganization is a way to break mental sets
or predispositions to respond in fixed ways
Allow yourself to reorganize your perceptions of a
problem sometimes makes solutions easier to find


Slide

50

Perceptual Reorganization - Puzzle/Demo
Fred has 1 x 1 tile in his back yard. He wants to
replace it with 1 x 2 tiles.
The current pattern takes 40 tiles, so he buys 20
of the 1 x 2 tiles.
He can’t figure out how to make them fit without
cutting one… can you?

21
19

Slide

51

Perceptual Reorganization - Puzzle/Demo
How can we calculate the area of the parallelogram
below?

a
a=3
b = √5

b

b

2

a
4


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52

7. Brainstorming
l

Problem solver is encouraged to think up
imaginative, unconventional & even silly possible
solutions

l

Suspend judgments or evaluations

l

Capture ideas in writing

l

The goal is quantity of ideas
“The best way to have good
ideas is to have lots of ideas.” Linus Pauling


Slide

53

8. Split-Half Method (Binary Search)
Useful approach when there is a set of
sequentially organized possible solutions to
consider & no hint about suitability
Choose a point midway between current end
points and test
If not correct, iterate with new end point


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54

9. Simplification
Are there special or boundary cases
that make the problem complex?
Can they be defined away?
Are there simple solutions to part of
the problem? Is the remainder of
the problem worth the extra
effort
Can anything be added to the
problem or changed to eliminate
the special case?

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55

10. Inventory & Reframe Available Resources
What resources are available to you?
§ People
§ Equipment
§ Materials
§ Facilities
§ Money
§ Authority

Could they be used in other ways?


Slide

56

11. Micro/Macro Context Shift (Scale Up/Down)
Probing extremes frequently provides insights
into problem boundaries, side effects &
implications
§ What if we made it bigger/smaller?
§ What if we made it faster/slower?
§ What if traffic increased/decreased?
§ What if there were only one customer?
§ What if we increased/decreased quality?


Slide

57

Hobbits & Orcs Puzzle
Under an uneasy truce, three hobbits and three orcs are
traveling together. They come to a river crossing that
has a single 2 person canoe. If at any time the number
of orcs on one side of the river is greater than the
number of hobbits, the minority hobbits will be eaten.
Can you determine how they might all get across the
river safely using the canoe?


Slide

58

12. Detour Solutions
Detour Solutions apply to problems in which the
path to the goal is indirect. Sometimes to
make progress toward an ultimate goal, you
must move away from the goal in the short
term
Example: someone seeking wealth discovers that
a likely path is to go into debt to finance
necessary education
Detour solutions are sometimes counterintuitive


Slide

59

13. Opposite Thinking
Opposite thinking can break perceptual blocks
and sometimes uncover systemic remedies to
problems
§ How could we make the problem worse?
§ How could we add risk and complexity?
§ How could we speed up the problem?

This will sometimes supply interesting ideas that
can address the problem or uncover balancing
forces

Slide

60

14. Contradictions
The perfect solution to a problem may have
contradictory properties. Are there aspects
of the problem or potential solutions that are
contradictory?
Look for leverage and innovation at contradiction
points
§ Look for trade offs
§ Look for compromise
§ Look for innovation (TRIZ)

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61

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62

15. Review the Rules
Are you being constrained by any rules that
might be suspended for this problem?


16. Look for Patterns
Are there patterns to the symptoms?
§ Time
§ Space
§ Correlated events
§ People
§ Other events or processes?

There it goes again failing when the
255th user logs in…

Can the problem be safely replicated to
look for patterns?
How might the patterns suggest
solutions?

Slide

63

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64

17. Get Help
Can someone else be enlisted to help you
generate ideas or solve the problem?
§ Expert
§ Peer
§ Novice
§ Fool
§ Imaginary Person
§ Book or other reference
§ Other


18. Review Models
Check models of the problem that you built in
verification for intervention clues:
§ Force field analysis - decrease resistance?
§ Pareto - more efficient solutions?
§ Cause/effect diagram - alternative solutions?
§ Flow chart or process flow - needless complexity?
§ System diagrams - leveraged intervention?


Slide

65

Force Field Analysis: Example
Current State

Desired State

25% Skilled employee attrition
rate last year (previously 10%)

Attrition rate 10% or less
for skilled employees

Forces That Help
(Driving Forces)
Flex time instituted
Monthly roundtables
w/mgmt

Forces that Hinder
(Restraining Forces)
Benefits cut by 50%
Elimination of bonuses
New performance standards

Telecommuting
implemented

Pay 10% below
industry standard


Slide

66

19. Test Assumptions
In theory, you have not been constrained by
assumptions - in practice, assumptions can
be very compelling
Review assumption list & look for solutions
prematurely eliminated or missed by
treating assumptions as facts or
constraints
Imagine the impact of changing assumptions
Assumptions ≠ Facts

Slide

67

20. Change Attributes
Are there attributes of the situation that can be
changed to observe the effect?
§ Parts?
§ Location/geography?
§ Timing?
§ Environment?
§ Individuals involved?
§ Suppliers?


Slide

68

21. Reframe to Reduce Resistance
Is there a way to change attributes or
perception of a problem or solution to
overcome resistance? Examples:
§ Tom Sawyer’s whitewashed fence
§ Wolf in sheep’s clothing
§ Trojan Horse
§ Camouflage
§ Sweet medicine


Slide

69

22. Shift the Problem
Can the problem be shifted to make it someone
else’s problem?
Can the problem be shifted to a different place
in the system where it is cheaper or easier to
detect or correct?


Slide

70

23. Change Perception
Problem solving was initiated because of
perceptions - is there a way to change the
perception?


Slide

71

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72

24. Change Desire
Is the desire subject to change?


(Bonus!) Combine Strategies
l

l

l

Creative people use combinations
of solution generating heuristics
Learn how/when to combine
strategies and which ones to use
Helpful when one strategy offers a
partial solution

“Make it a practice to keep on the lookout for novel and
interesting ideas that others have used successfully”
- Edison

Slide

73

Review of Identify Step
l
l

l
l

l

Use a variety of methods
Don’t stop with the first possible solution,
generate several
Give permission to play & make mistakes
Make notes… some ideas have merit on
reflection
Grow your heuristic set by dabbling in other
knowledge areas


Slide

74

Problem Solving: Select Possible Solution
Intro

We are here

Selfware
Verify

Identify
Select
Close


Slide

75

Rules of Thumb for Good Solutions
A good solution is feasible and wholly or partially
remedies the problem. Among options, favor
solutions that:
§ Are simple to implement & maintain
§ Introduce minimum new complexity
§ Produce minimal negative consequences
§ Allow a phased implementation
§ Are least expensive to implement
§ Can be implemented quickly
§ Present the lowest risk
§ Provide opportunities to learn if they fail

Slide

76

When a Solution is “Good Enough”
The best can be the enemy of the good
-- particularly if we are being
perfectionists or holding out for an
ideal solution
§ Failure to make a timely decision often
becomes a passive decision to fail.
§ Real world decisions are frequently
based on satisficing -- and that’s ok

All decisions benefit from systematic evaluation

Slide

77

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78

General Evaluation Questions
l

What are the advantages/disadvantages?

l

How well are solution criteria addressed?

l

How likely is the solution to succeed
(workability, complexity, commitment)?

l

What are the consequences (pro/con)?

l

How long will it take to implement?

l

How risky?

l

How costly?


Reaching a Decision
l

Establish rules for deciding on a solution

l

Consider all information emerging from evaluation

l

Select the solution and document the decision or
recommendation

Review your process and results with an outsider They may see biases or assumptions you do not

Slide

79

An Exercise
l

The number series {2, 4, 6} conforms to a
simple rule

l

You must identify the rule by coming up with
your own series of numbers.

l

I’ll tell you whether your series complies with
the rule

l

You can give me as many series as needed

l

Tell me when you think you know the rule and I
will verify your result


Slide

80

Challenges to Evaluation & Selection
l

Failure to seek disconfirming evidence

l
l

Hidden bias
Overconfidence

l

Availability heuristic

l

Representativeness heuristic

l

Entrapment or sunk cost

l
l

Psychological reactance
Mindlessness

l

Failure to evaluate consequences


Slide

81

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82

Review of Select Step
l

Rules of thumb for good solutions

l

When a solution is “good enough”

l

General evaluation questions

l

Reaching a decision

l

Communicating & confirming the decision

l

Challenges to evaluation & selection


Summary & Close
Intro
Selfware
Verify
Identify
Select
Close

We are here

Slide

83

Workshop Objectives
l
l
l

l

Practice problem definition
Explore improved problem solving methods
Examine and apply heuristics (tactics) to
enhance the problem solving process
Have fun while accomplishing other objectives


Slide

84

What’s in this for YOU?
After this workshop you should be able to…
§ Define problems with greater insight
§ Generate a wider variety of solutions
§ Better evaluate & select among solutions
§ Improve problem solving through increased
awareness, tactics, & tools


Slide

85

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86

Exercise: Insights/Progress?
Spend a minute reflecting on the
problems that you listed on the 3x5
card earlier today:

• Did you make progress on a
problem?

• Did you get any ideas that you
might try?

• What is one useful idea that you
picked up today?


The Next Steps are Up to YOU
l

You can choose to be a better problem solver

l

There are tactics and tools waiting to be
discovered and mastered

l

Give yourself permission to:
§ Analyze the problem before you proceed
§ Make mistakes
§ Apply the process
§ Ask for help
§ Try something different


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87

Thank You
l

We appreciate your participation in our Workshop

l

We hope that you found the results worth the
investment of your time

l

We ask you to please take a moment and provide
feedback regarding your experience

l

As you apply these skills in the future, please call with
questions or ideas

Catalysis Group (916) 929-3629

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88

Twelve Heuristics for Solving Tough Problems Faster and Better

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