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SOCIAL MEDIA, FAKE NEWS,
NEWS AND STOCK MARKET
Compiled By
Sudarshan Kadariya, M. Phil (Finance – Gold Medalist), MA in RD
Chairman
Lagani Group = Lagani School Pvt Ltd + Lagani Holdings Pvt Ltd
OVERVIEW
ī‚  Financial economists have long been interested in how markets
incorporate information. In the last decade, the confluence of
improved computational tools and data availability for text analysis
have led to new research methods and many important insights into
how markets respond to the news media.
ī‚  But how does information become news in the first place? How do
choices made by journalists shape the news to which markets react?
(Source:https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/financialstudies/events/annualne
wsandfinance/2019#overview)
FAKE NEWS
ī‚  Presented byYin Luo, "Beyond Fake News - Extracting Signals from Noisy News, Social
Media, and Corporate Events"
ī‚  What is fake news?
ī‚  Fake news, or hoax news, refers to false information or propaganda published under the
guise/excuse of being authentic news. Fake news websites and channels push their fake
news content in an attempt to mislead consumers of the content and spread
misinformation via social networks and word-of-mouth.
ī‚  Definitions of fake news from PolitiFact: "Fake news is made-up stuff, masterfully
manipulated to look like credible journalistic reports that are easily spread online to large
audiences willing to believe the fictions and spread the word."
ī‚  Why Fake News?
ī‚  The mission of fake news content isn't typically for financial gain — or at least not
completely for profit — but rather for luring visitors in via clickbaiting - and then getting
content consumers to virally spread the false information or hoax news.
FAKE NEWS
ī‚  Fake News in Discussion:
ī‚  The Role of Fake News in the 2016 U.S. Election
ī‚  Both Facebook and Google have also been criticized for playing a large role in the spread of fake
news, with fake news stories typically spreading via Facebook and being boosted in Google search
results as the stories gained more attention from readers.
ī‚  Fake news frequently originates from outside of the United States, particularly in countries
like Russia, even when the target is primarily an American-based audience. U.S.
intelligence officials have commented that they "believe Russia helped disseminate fake
and propagandized news as part of a broader effort to influence and undermine the
presidential election," according to BuzzFeed News.
(Source: https://www.webopedia.com/TERM/F/fake-news.html)
APPLICATION OF AI IN FINANCE
ī‚  Evan Schnidman, CEO, Prattle presenting: “Applications of AI in Finance: Using
NLP to Analyze Market-Moving Language”
Text,Voice, Facial
Expressions, etc can be
analyzed to identify the
clues but get public. For
example, Fed Interest
rate sentiments
NEW AND OLD NEWS, REPRINTS &
COMBINATIONS NEWS
ī‚  Anastassia Fedyk, Assistant Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, U.C.
Berkeley presenting: "When Can the Market Identify Old News?“
ī‚  Reprints: Repeat single previous stories
ī‚  Recombination: Combine into from different previous stories
ī‚  Market Dynamics:
ī‚  Recombination effect: Stronger reactions on days with more recombination than
reprints
ī‚  These reactions are more likely to subsequently reverse
ī‚  The effect has strengthened over time
ASSET PRICE IMPLICATIONS
ī‚  Prediction (Novel vs Old News)
ī‚  Compared to novel news, old news is associated with lower trading volumes and
absolute price change immediately following publication
ī‚  Prediction (Reprints vs Recombination)
ī‚  Among old news, recombination are associated with larger immediate trading
volumes and absolute price changes than reprint stories
SOCIAL MEDIA
ī‚  Matthew Gentzkow, Professor of Economics, Stanford University presenting: "TheWelfare
Effects of Social Media"
ī‚  Among social media platforms, people value Facebook a lot
ī‚  People are overconsuming social media, the over use can cause some problems too such
as depression, individualists, social behavior, etc
ī‚  Facebook makes people both more informed and more polarized
ī‚  In light of these study results, we can think of what kind of impacts can be in the stock
market?
ī‚  Examplesâ€Ļ. Pls discuss
INSTITUTIONALTRADING
ī‚  RussWermers, Bank of America Professor of Finance and Director, Center for
Financial Policy, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland
presenting: "InstitutionalTrading Around Corporate News: Evidence fromTextual
Analysis"
ī‚  News-Driven institutional trades results in abnormal returns in the next four
weeks
ī‚  Institutional advantage stems mostly from their ability to process information in
a very timely manner
ī‚  Abnormal returns from trading on news is a major concern
INSTITUTIONALTRADING, NEWS, MARKET
ī‚  Institutional trading occurs around the corporate news
ī‚  Timely access to information is important to institutions (even 2-second
earlier news feed matters! – HFT)
ī‚  Bad news stored for later publication
ī‚  Good news release fast
ī‚  In general, one news per 20 days per company comes out
ī‚  No news is considered as good news
ī‚  Institutions trade news within 30 minutes
ī‚  News release time – usually after hours and premarket
LATEST ANALYSISTOOLS IN STOCK MARKET
FOR INTERVIEWS, PRESS RELEASE, ETC
ī‚  Meeting interviews
ī‚  Press releases
ī‚  Words used in the news
ī‚  Facial expression
ī‚  Sounds quality
ī‚  Readability of the released documents, etc
ī‚  All these aspects are analyzed with sophisticated tools like as sentiments analysis,
textual analysis, facial expression analysis, vocal analysis, etc
NEWS, FAKE NEWS &TRADING BEHAVIOR
ī‚  Joshua Mitts, Associate Professor of Law, Columbia Law School presenting:
"Short and Distort"
ī‚  V-Shape
ī‚  Why price fall before news publish?
ī‚  When news release: overreactions /underpricing i.e. mispricing,
ī‚  Reversal
THANKYOU

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Social media, fake news, news and stock market

  • 1. SOCIAL MEDIA, FAKE NEWS, NEWS AND STOCK MARKET Compiled By Sudarshan Kadariya, M. Phil (Finance – Gold Medalist), MA in RD Chairman Lagani Group = Lagani School Pvt Ltd + Lagani Holdings Pvt Ltd
  • 2. OVERVIEW ī‚  Financial economists have long been interested in how markets incorporate information. In the last decade, the confluence of improved computational tools and data availability for text analysis have led to new research methods and many important insights into how markets respond to the news media. ī‚  But how does information become news in the first place? How do choices made by journalists shape the news to which markets react? (Source:https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/financialstudies/events/annualne wsandfinance/2019#overview)
  • 3. FAKE NEWS ī‚  Presented byYin Luo, "Beyond Fake News - Extracting Signals from Noisy News, Social Media, and Corporate Events" ī‚  What is fake news? ī‚  Fake news, or hoax news, refers to false information or propaganda published under the guise/excuse of being authentic news. Fake news websites and channels push their fake news content in an attempt to mislead consumers of the content and spread misinformation via social networks and word-of-mouth. ī‚  Definitions of fake news from PolitiFact: "Fake news is made-up stuff, masterfully manipulated to look like credible journalistic reports that are easily spread online to large audiences willing to believe the fictions and spread the word." ī‚  Why Fake News? ī‚  The mission of fake news content isn't typically for financial gain — or at least not completely for profit — but rather for luring visitors in via clickbaiting - and then getting content consumers to virally spread the false information or hoax news.
  • 4. FAKE NEWS ī‚  Fake News in Discussion: ī‚  The Role of Fake News in the 2016 U.S. Election ī‚  Both Facebook and Google have also been criticized for playing a large role in the spread of fake news, with fake news stories typically spreading via Facebook and being boosted in Google search results as the stories gained more attention from readers. ī‚  Fake news frequently originates from outside of the United States, particularly in countries like Russia, even when the target is primarily an American-based audience. U.S. intelligence officials have commented that they "believe Russia helped disseminate fake and propagandized news as part of a broader effort to influence and undermine the presidential election," according to BuzzFeed News. (Source: https://www.webopedia.com/TERM/F/fake-news.html)
  • 5. APPLICATION OF AI IN FINANCE ī‚  Evan Schnidman, CEO, Prattle presenting: “Applications of AI in Finance: Using NLP to Analyze Market-Moving Language”
  • 6. Text,Voice, Facial Expressions, etc can be analyzed to identify the clues but get public. For example, Fed Interest rate sentiments
  • 7.
  • 8. NEW AND OLD NEWS, REPRINTS & COMBINATIONS NEWS ī‚  Anastassia Fedyk, Assistant Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, U.C. Berkeley presenting: "When Can the Market Identify Old News?“ ī‚  Reprints: Repeat single previous stories ī‚  Recombination: Combine into from different previous stories ī‚  Market Dynamics: ī‚  Recombination effect: Stronger reactions on days with more recombination than reprints ī‚  These reactions are more likely to subsequently reverse ī‚  The effect has strengthened over time
  • 9. ASSET PRICE IMPLICATIONS ī‚  Prediction (Novel vs Old News) ī‚  Compared to novel news, old news is associated with lower trading volumes and absolute price change immediately following publication ī‚  Prediction (Reprints vs Recombination) ī‚  Among old news, recombination are associated with larger immediate trading volumes and absolute price changes than reprint stories
  • 10. SOCIAL MEDIA ī‚  Matthew Gentzkow, Professor of Economics, Stanford University presenting: "TheWelfare Effects of Social Media" ī‚  Among social media platforms, people value Facebook a lot ī‚  People are overconsuming social media, the over use can cause some problems too such as depression, individualists, social behavior, etc ī‚  Facebook makes people both more informed and more polarized ī‚  In light of these study results, we can think of what kind of impacts can be in the stock market? ī‚  Examplesâ€Ļ. Pls discuss
  • 11. INSTITUTIONALTRADING ī‚  RussWermers, Bank of America Professor of Finance and Director, Center for Financial Policy, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland presenting: "InstitutionalTrading Around Corporate News: Evidence fromTextual Analysis" ī‚  News-Driven institutional trades results in abnormal returns in the next four weeks ī‚  Institutional advantage stems mostly from their ability to process information in a very timely manner ī‚  Abnormal returns from trading on news is a major concern
  • 12. INSTITUTIONALTRADING, NEWS, MARKET ī‚  Institutional trading occurs around the corporate news ī‚  Timely access to information is important to institutions (even 2-second earlier news feed matters! – HFT) ī‚  Bad news stored for later publication ī‚  Good news release fast ī‚  In general, one news per 20 days per company comes out ī‚  No news is considered as good news ī‚  Institutions trade news within 30 minutes ī‚  News release time – usually after hours and premarket
  • 13. LATEST ANALYSISTOOLS IN STOCK MARKET FOR INTERVIEWS, PRESS RELEASE, ETC ī‚  Meeting interviews ī‚  Press releases ī‚  Words used in the news ī‚  Facial expression ī‚  Sounds quality ī‚  Readability of the released documents, etc ī‚  All these aspects are analyzed with sophisticated tools like as sentiments analysis, textual analysis, facial expression analysis, vocal analysis, etc
  • 14. NEWS, FAKE NEWS &TRADING BEHAVIOR ī‚  Joshua Mitts, Associate Professor of Law, Columbia Law School presenting: "Short and Distort" ī‚  V-Shape ī‚  Why price fall before news publish? ī‚  When news release: overreactions /underpricing i.e. mispricing, ī‚  Reversal