This document discusses water scarcity issues in North America, focusing on Canada, the Colorado River, and drought impacts in California. It explains that while Canada has abundant freshwater resources, political and public opinion constraints prevent water exports. The Colorado River faces increasing demand that exceeds supply despite conservation efforts. Prolonged drought in California stresses groundwater and agricultural production in the short term and highlights long-term competition for limited water resources across the region.

1. North American
Water Scarcity
David McNew/Getty Images

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North American
Water Scarcity
PART I: WHY CANADA CANNOT
EXPORT ITS WATER
Canada’s Deceptive Abundance
Constraints on Water Exports
Political Constraints on Water Transfers
PART II: THE DECLINE OF THE
COLORADO RIVER
Inadequate Supply and Increasing Demand
Conservation Efforts Along the Colorado
The Potential for New Disputes
PART III: U.S. AGRICULTURE WILTS
DURING CALIFORNIA DROUGHT
California’s Water Use
Californian Groundwater
The Drought’s Short-Term Effects
Long-Term Competition for Limited Resources
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3. 4STRATFOR •
PART I
WHY CANADA
CANNOT EXPORT
ITS WATER
D
espite being “water rich,” Canada will
experience increasing regional water stress
as demographics and climate variability
threaten the natural resources in the country’s prairie.
Suggestions about the possibility of Canada exporting
water will emerge sporadically, as they have in the past.
But such plans are highly unlikely to come to fruition,
both because public opinion opposes the commoditi-
zation of water and because the exporting water would
not be profitable. While Canada will continue to pro-
tect its freshwater resources, it will not turn them into
a traditionally traded commodity.
Canada’s wealth of resources and comparatively small
population enable the government to capitalize on the
export of a number of goods, including oil, natural
gas, fertilizer and wheat. But although Canada holds
roughly 7 percent of the world’s renewable freshwater
resources and less than 1 percent of the total global
population, water is not poised to become another ex-
Canada’s frozen Bow River passes through Alberta province’s Banff National Park. (JOE KLAMAR/AFP/Getty Images)
Research Note: This new water scarcity assessment evaluates threats to the security of North American water resources, relying on 20 years of
Stratfor’s collective experience in providing geopolitical intelligence. Curated by our Research Analytics Department, it brings our report up to
2016, taking into account the latest developments.