Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncertainty in aligning innovation with the SDGs
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Presentation by Andy Stirling to conference of INET in collaboration with OECD on ‘Forecasting the Future for Sustainable Development: approaches to modelling and the science of prediction’. 16th June 2021
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Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncertainty in aligning innovation with the SDGs
- 1. Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncertainty in aligning innovation with the SDGs Andy Stirling SPRU and STEPS Centre University of Sussex presentation to conference of INET in collaboration with OECD on: ‘Forecasting the Future for Sustainable Development: approaches to modelling and the science of prediction’ - session on ‘Innovation and mathematics for Sustainable Development Goals’ 16th June 2021
- 2. What does it Mean, to call Forecasting a ‘Science’? Implications of: authority? determinacy? precision? singular ‘truth’? – but: … ozone hole … endocrine disruption … BSE … 2008 crash … COVID-19 … Where is evidence for this? What is credibility? Why such implausible language? … “science” … ? … “prediction” …?
- 3. Be Rigorous also about the Politics of Justification The most valuable commodity in politics in politics is not truth but justification (eg: after Habermas, Collingridge, Hood, Boltanksi, Thevenot, Wynne) ‘Justification’: the process of procuring means to: - engineer closure – singular (not plural) interpretations / recommendations - establish authority – impression of confident power, not contingent dependence - secure credibility – thro’ myth of science about certainty more than uncertainty - build legitimacy – implicit authoritarian and technocratic vision of democracy - foster trust – of incumbent power, not wider actors or trustworthiness - manage blame – with inevitable occurrence of “event, dear boy, events” - assert interests – a chance partly to favourably configure emerging outcomes This is not about science (“nullius in verba” – “not on authority”) but politics (‘elevator pitch’; ‘science based decisions’; ‘evidence based policy’) To be “in power” is not about control, but about using stories of control to ‘surf’ contingent events that are actually out of control, such as to maintain prevailing privilege
- 4. Be Rigorous on Power Dynamics of Sustainablity This is why the conservative media call the SDGs ‘the stupid development goals’ SDGs resist pressures for hegemonic policy justification Challenging hegemonic ideas of singular self-evident “the way forward” as driven by powerful interests - private profit - economic growth - military domination
- 5. This is how ‘sustainability’ gets “regulatory captured” “Sound science” discourse; “pro-innovation” policies treat innovation as scalar - ‘how fast?’ ‘who’s ahead?’ ‘what risk?’ … not ‘which way?’ ‘who says?’ ‘why?’ Multiple possible disparate pathways are presented as a single ‘way forward’ – reinforces ‘lock-in’, ‘path dependency’, ‘entrenchment’, ‘entrapment’ … Justification forces innovation to be scalar not vector – the quality of direction (crucial for sustainability) is effectively deleted eg: pathways to ‘sustainable’ … energy, food, agriculture, transport, cities …
- 6. Justification forces ‘quantification’ into ‘aggregation’ Policy evidence in modelling and assessment routinely neglects to attend to full range of sensitivities or variabilities in background peer reviewed literatures A misleading impression is given of the robustness of ‘sound science’, the precision of ‘evidence based analysis’, the sufficiency of scientific expertise This is how ‘sustainability’ becomes technocratic
- 7. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE Justification reduces uncertainty & ignorance to ‘risk’ Not all aspects of incertitude in modelling, forecasting or sustainable innovation are satisfactorily quantifiable using ‘mathematical’ constructs (eg: probabilities)
- 8. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities eg: aggregation eg: insurance eg: liability ` eg: metrics AMBIGUITY UNCERTAINTY RISK IGNORANCE The impression that probabilities are sufficient is engineered by institutions – compounds misleading picture of the confidence warranted in prescriptions Justification reduces uncertainty & ignorance to ‘risk’
- 9. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods IGNORANCE RISK knowledge about possibilities explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices … collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude UNCERTAINTY burden of evidence onus of persuasion uncertainty factors decision heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing precautionary appraisal AMBIGUITY Practical Tools to Open Up Sustainability Appraisal reductive mathematics
- 10. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods IGNORANCE RISK UNCERTAINTY knowledge about possibilities … collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude scenarios backcasting interactive modells MC mapping Q-method participatory deliberation explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices AMBIGUITY Practical Tools to Open Up Sustainability Appraisal
- 11. knowledge about likelihoods problematic UNCERTAINTY … collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude unproblematic unproblematic problematic AMBIGUITY RISK knowledge about possibilities explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices Practical Tools to Open Up Sustainability Appraisal civic research, monitoring, flexibility, reversibility diversity, resilience, agility IGNORANCE learning adaptation
- 12. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods RISK UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE knowledge about possibilities Options Options humility ‘opening up’: options, issues, approaches, possibilities, perspectives safety sustainability … social choice explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices AMBIGUITY Practical Tools to Open Up Sustainability Appraisal
- 13. specific tech institutional ‘lock-in’ risk regulation ‘closed down’ instrumentalised politics risk Options risk narrow mathematical assessment knowledge economy $ IIIIII € conventional science & modelling are complicit in ‘closing down’ policy choices Opening Up Maths for Innovation for Sustainability
- 14. possible paths multiple feasible Innovation trajectories choice discourse risk options perspective ss risk neglected issues excluded values alternative pathways ignored uncertainties marginalised interests precautionary principle Sustainability innovation democracy “letting go” diversity, discontinuity, experiment risk “broadening out” respects sustainability is about process as much as outcome and avoids fuelling & provoking authoritarian populism it is more rigorous & more democratic to disaggregate & explore sensitivities Opening Up Maths for Innovation for Sustainability plural conditional recommendations dissensus processes sceptical politics catalyse, not suppress, democracy “opening up”