What they don't tell you in school about being an economist
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Presentation to Carleton University students in an undergraduate "Professional Practice of Economics" course
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What they don't tell you in school about being an economist
- 1. WHAT THEY DON’T TELL YOU IN SCHOOL ABOUT BEING AN ECONOMIST Stephen Tapp Prof. Woolley, Carleton University Professional Practice of Economics course November 13, 2019
- 3. 3
- 5. 5 USE UNIQUE DATA SOURCES Source: EDC Economics using Google Trends. Recession worries? Google searches for “recession” in Canada Peak popularity indexed to 100
- 6. 6 REPEAT IMAGES TO EMPHASIZE PATTERNS Trade uncertainty indices Source: PolicyUncertainty.com; Haver Analytics 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 United States 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 China 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Japan 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Germany 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Canada 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Mexico
- 7. 7 MAPS BEAT TABLES FOR COUNTRY DATA Source: EDC Global Economic Outlook, Fall 2019.
- 8. 8 MAPS BEAT TABLES FOR COUNTRY DATA Source: EDC Global Economic Outlook, Fall 2019.Source: EDC Global Economic Outlook, Fall 2019. 2019 Real GDP growth forecast, %
- 9. 9 ENGAGE WITH THE CDNECON COMMUNITY
- 10. 10 WAYS TO ENGAGE WITH OTHER ECONOMISTS In person: • Study groups, attend events, conferences • Student associations, Ottawa Economics (Nov 20) Online: • Social media, charts, Twitter essay, blog
- 11. 11 BE SOCIAL AND PROMOTE YOUR WORK
- 12. 12 MY VIEW IN 2001 Economics Do good work Promotion Someone else’s job People will recognize good work MY VIEW NOW Economics Do good work + Pick timely topics + Tell compelling stories + Repeat Promotion Part of your job People are busy Big return on time invested
- 13. 13 SOCIAL MEDIA BENEFITS Learn Share ideas Find worthwhile content Follow breaking news Expand network/reach
- 14. 14 OTHER BENEFITS • Space constraint sharpens message • Quick feedback, polls • Media requests
- 15. 15 CONS • Potential time waster • Not for nuanced conversation • Parked cars
- 16. 16 See comments
- 20. 20 PRESENTATION TIPS: - KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE - PRACTICE - BE MEMORABLE More ideas here
- 21. 21 BE SOCIAL: INSERT BOJACK QUOTE ON RUNNING
- 23. 23 DISTINGUISHING SKILLS AT DIFFERENT CAREER STAGES • Early career: Be reliable, gain experience • Mid career: Have a view, build your own brand • Executive: Have vision and confidence
- 24. 24 THINGS I LOOK FOR WHEN HIRING • Compelling reason why you want the job • Positive attitude, desire to learn and grow • Work ethic • Experience working with data • Time management • Presentation skills – Clear messages in writing, briefings, visuals
- 26. 26 Stephen Tapp Deputy Chief Economist, Export Development Canada Email: STapp@edc.ca Stephen Tapp @Stephen_Tapp CONTACT
- 27. 27 EDC’S ROLE • Canada’s export credit agency • Manage risk to help Canadian companies grow their business internationally – Financing, insurance, knowledge, connections
- 28. 28 EDC ECONOMICS • Weekly Commentary/Econ Insights newsletter • Global Economic Outlook • Global Export Forecast • Trade Confidence Index • Country Risk Quarterly • Research reports edc.trade/economic-insights @ExportDevCanada Export Help Hub ExportHelp@edc.ca
Editor's Notes
- Secondary validation
- The World Trade Uncertainty (WTU) index is constructed by counting the number of times “uncertainty” is mentioned within a proximity to a word related to trade in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s country reports. The index is equally weighted average and scaled by total number of words in the Economist Intelligence Unit country reports, and multiplied by 100,000.
- U.S. expected to defy recession-currents: 2.4% in 2019, and 2.5% in 2020. Trade tensions and financial market turbulence have dulled business sentiment, but U.S. consumers still have firepower. Tight labour markets and a healthy personal savings rate, should help propel the U.S. economy forward. Given the rising costs of U.S.-China trade tensions —increasingly hitting U.S. consumers — we expect resolution of the bilateral trade dispute by mid-2020. Reduced uncertainty for U.S. businesses, who are sitting on large cash reserves, should help fund investments in new plants and aging assets. The main downside risk to the U.S. outlook is an inability to resolve the country’s on-going and escalating trade disputes with its major trading partners. Canada: 2 weak quarters strong rebounded 2019Q2, but relatively subdued for 2019 as a whole. 1.6%, accelerating to 1.9% growth in 2020. HH debt restrain consumption, biz investment soft due to global uncertainty. Although exports provided a positive surprise in the second quarter, their momentum is expected to fade in light of ongoing trade tensions and weakening global growth. Assuming an eventual reduction in trade tensions, stronger global demand is expected to pull up Canada’s economy in 2020. Mexico: Domestic policy uncertainty and mounting external risks are taking a toll, lackluster growth for 2019 and 2020. Despite recent easing measures, fiscal and monetary policies will likely remain prudently tight to support macroeconomic stability, and this stance will likely constrain domestic demand growth. Prolonged investment hesitation, coupled with a soft-patch in U.S. import demand amid ongoing global trade policy tensions, will limit growth in capital investments and exports. Demand fundamentals support consumer spending, but fiscal austerity and slowing employment growth are restraining factors. Key downside risks to the outlook include a further deterioration in external demand or domestic policy, and ratings concerns about Pemex, a financially-troubled state-owned energy company.
- U.S. expected to defy recession-currents: 2.4% in 2019, and 2.5% in 2020. Trade tensions and financial market turbulence have dulled business sentiment, but U.S. consumers still have firepower. Tight labour markets and a healthy personal savings rate, should help propel the U.S. economy forward. Given the rising costs of U.S.-China trade tensions —increasingly hitting U.S. consumers — we expect resolution of the bilateral trade dispute by mid-2020. Reduced uncertainty for U.S. businesses, who are sitting on large cash reserves, should help fund investments in new plants and aging assets. The main downside risk to the U.S. outlook is an inability to resolve the country’s on-going and escalating trade disputes with its major trading partners. Canada: 2 weak quarters strong rebounded 2019Q2, but relatively subdued for 2019 as a whole. 1.6%, accelerating to 1.9% growth in 2020. HH debt restrain consumption, biz investment soft due to global uncertainty. Although exports provided a positive surprise in the second quarter, their momentum is expected to fade in light of ongoing trade tensions and weakening global growth. Assuming an eventual reduction in trade tensions, stronger global demand is expected to pull up Canada’s economy in 2020. Mexico: Domestic policy uncertainty and mounting external risks are taking a toll, lackluster growth for 2019 and 2020. Despite recent easing measures, fiscal and monetary policies will likely remain prudently tight to support macroeconomic stability, and this stance will likely constrain domestic demand growth. Prolonged investment hesitation, coupled with a soft-patch in U.S. import demand amid ongoing global trade policy tensions, will limit growth in capital investments and exports. Demand fundamentals support consumer spending, but fiscal austerity and slowing employment growth are restraining factors. Key downside risks to the outlook include a further deterioration in external demand or domestic policy, and ratings concerns about Pemex, a financially-troubled state-owned energy company.
- Secondary validation