This is an article that I wrote almost twenty years, possibly in 2001 or 2002. I submitted it for online publication on the Web site Sonshi.com, dedicated to Sun Tzu’s classical text on military strategy and tactics The Art of War. The Sonshi link is: https://www.sonshi.com/red-star-over-asia.html. The article deals with possible future prospects for the contemporary People’s Republic of China. I decided to bring it “out of the vaults” and repost it on SlideShare to document evolution of writing, research, and analytical abilities. Stephen Cheng July 28, 2019

1. This is an article that I wrote almost twenty years, possibly in 2001 or 2002. I submitted it for
online publication on the Web site Sonshi.com, dedicated to Sun Tzu’s classical text on military
strategy and tactics The Art of War. The Sonshi link is: https://www.sonshi.com/red-star-over-
asia.html. The article deals with possible future prospects for the contemporary People’s
Republic of China. I decided to bring it “out of the vaults” and repost it on SlideShare to
document evolution of writing, research, and analytical abilities.
Stephen Cheng
July 28, 2019
Red Star over Asia
by Stephen Cheng
Although the last half of the twentieth century has shown that the leading economic power in the
Far East is Japan, the race to be on top in terms of economy continues. Now, in the early years of
the twenty-first century, the Japanese economy is not faring too well. Japan is currently under an
economic recession (the same for most countries) while other countries in East Asia are catching
up. The People's Republic of China is among those countries on the rise.
With China rising as a worldwide economic force and thus a world power, there are factors that
ought to be taken into account. These factors range from what stimulated the Chinese economy
to the consequences that China would cause as the new economic leader in Asia. These
consequences can either mean the entrance of China into the global economy or increased
political and military tensions. It should be of course noted that China currently has the largest
population in the world. With over one billion citizens, China is in itself a vast market that can
yield numerous profits. However, the China of the nineteenth century is gone. The Kuomintang,
also known as the Nationalist Party, was relegated to Taiwan back in 1949.
The Maoist years have also disappeared. In its place is the China that has been partially
liberalized in the economic sense. Independent and government-operated Chinese enterprises are
now competing with foreign companies. China is now a part of the globalization era. Western
companies are selling products in China, and vice versa. Just as well, cheap labor can be found in
China, where independent labor unions are forbidden, and the products made can in turn be sold
at low prices in the West. The economic reforms of the late Premier Deng Xiaoping has also
allowed for cultural diffusion in China, which had been isolated from the West for the most part
by Mao Tse-tung.
Although China is still considered a developing nation, it is not in any way weak. The Chinese
Communist Party, also called the CCP, has seen to that by building the world's largest military.
However, and as stated before, the Communist Party allowed for privatization. Now that the
Communists in China are trading their ideology for capitalism, what does this mean for Sino-
West relations?
First of all, why did the People's Republic of China resort to the free market? The answer lies in
the early years of the Chinese Communist regime. It was in 1949 when Generalissimo Chiang
Kai-shek and his Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan and when the Communists under Mao Tse-

2. tung successfully unified the Chinese mainland.
The modernization campaigns, the most prominent titled the Great Leap Forward, instituted by
the CCP failed and pushed China into an economic depression. The situation didn't improve in
the 1960s and the 1970s. Instead of economic recovery, the Chinese people endured a Cultural
Revolution instigated by Mao and the Red Guard vigilantes. Later on, there was also the reign of
the Gang of Four. It was in the 1980s when Premier Deng Xiaoping allowed for limited
privatization. Ever since then, the Chinese economy was in the upswing.
The social aspects in China are not encouraging for those who wish to raise the living standards
of that country. China has overpopulation and continues to institute birth control programs.
Extreme measures such as infanticide, forced abortion, and forced sterilization have been
utilized. According to UN surveys, the gender ratio for 2002 indicates that male Chinese
outnumber females 106 to 100. Although the urban areas such as Beijing have experienced
prosperity, the rural areas continue to be rife with poverty. Also, there is an AIDS/HIV epidemic
in China (or at least in the rural regions of China). Obviously, should these trends continue,
China will experience a decline in population and thus reductions in the workforce and the
military.
Politically, the Communists are well entrenched. The Chinese Communist Party, although having
allowed the flourishing of capitalism within its borders, continues to stifle human rights and civil
liberties. The Chinese government constantly suppresses the Falun Gong, a Taoist group with
pacifistic leanings. And as yet there are no armed groups that are willing to oppose the CCP.
Also, no longer does the government have total control the mass media. There is high Internet
usage in China. However, so long as the CCP commands the People's Liberation Army, it will
remain in power.
The People's Liberation Army is by far the largest conventional military force (it includes the
army, the air force, and the navy). It has over 2 million members strong and is under the orders
of the Central Military Commission, a department within the Chinese government. The PLA is
not as well-developed as the Western militaries, although attempts have been made to improve
its arsenal and combat effectiveness.
The Chinese military also has both nuclear and conventional warheads and so far its air and
naval forces can only conduct defensive operations. But, the ground forces of the PLA are able to
launch assault operations as well as those on the defense. And as was stated in the previous
paragraph, the Communists rely on the military to stay in power (they would have been ousted if
they did not have military backing). Essentially, although not officially, the Chinese government
is a military regime
Finally, what about war against the West, or rather, the United States? The conflict would
apparently center upon Taiwan. Although the Kuomintang wishes to see China and Taiwan
reunified under its rule, the more popular Democratic Progressive Party pushes for Taiwanese
independence. On the other hand, the Chinese government views Taiwan as a so-called renegade
province.

3. It would be unlikely that China would go to war over Taiwan. The reasons lie in trade and the
current political atmosphere. China is benefiting economically by trading with other countries.
To declare war, whether in the name of a worldwide Marxist revolution or with the invocation of
Chinese nationalism, would put a drain on the economy and alienate trading partners. Also,
China stands with the United States in the war against Islamic extremists. The CCP had stated
officially that they condemned the terrorist attacks on the eleventh of September in 2001.
But what if war does break out? The scenario would likely involve China and possibly North
Korea against the United States and nations that have allied with the US. Chinese troops would
be amassed near the Taiwan Strait. US and allied forces would be placed on high alert.
Furthermore, the US would seek to strengthen its military bases in East and Southeast Asia.
Battles would be fought by air and by water but if the US manages to force a landing upon China
or if Chinese troops succeed in establishing beachheads on the allied nations, fighting would take
place on the ground. The conflict in East Asia can start another world war.
Although the United Nations Security Council would call for negotiations to cool the sparks, it is
likely that neither a resolution nor a peacekeeping force would work. China and the United States
are permanent members of the Security Council. The US and the Chinese will simply veto every
UN decision made to end the strife and thus throw the Security Council into deadlock. The US
would obviously air grievances against China such as spy scandals and the operation of labor
camps. The Chinese would respond by arguing that Taiwan is in fact one of its own provinces.
The best hope for the end to such unrest, however virtually unattainable, lies in an equitable
treaty for both sides. Another future possibility that should be examined is the possibility of a
revolution in China. It was stated before in this article that as yet there are no militia groups.
However, there is a large gap between the rich and the poor. High-level Communist Party
officials and successful businessmen are living affluently whereas factory workers, migrant
workers, and farmers are struggling to survive. There may be strong anti-Communist feelings
among the less affluent of the Chinese populace. The regime has indeed experienced changes
from within, but it appears that the CCP will only allow for economic liberalization and will
continue to retain its power over the country. But, the Communists rely desperately on the
military to maintain control.
If a revolution does occur, it would most likely be a military coup, should PLA commanders feel
that they themselves are the ones capable of running the nation.
China as a world power is inevitable. One cannot deny this. Although the CCP will one day have
to give up its political monopoly, China will probably remain a formidable economic force. It is
currently a wild card in current international affairs. The rise of a Chinese superpower can either
result in armed conflict with the West or a major victory for economic globalization. The
question is, which one?
Author’s note from the early 2000s, possibly 2002, 2003 or 2004: This article was inspired by a
discussion in August 2001 with Arthur H. Tafero concerning the present state and possible future
scenarios of China. Mr. Tafero operated a website: EasternStudiesDatabase.com. The title of
this article was adapted from Edgar Snow’s Red Star over China. If I recall correctly, I also
consulted Microsoft Encarta ® Online Encyclopedia while writing the article.