Firm size and cyclical variations in stock returns
1. Firm Size and Cyclical Variations
in Stock Returns
Gabriel Perez-Quiros and Allan Timmermann
Speakers: 張博能 | 劉正傑 | 歐哲源 | 林嘉偉 | 林⽐比莉
THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE VOL. LV, NO3 JUNE 2002
Finance Management Course @NCCU
22. Empirical Test
03.
▶ Markov Switching Models for
Excess Returns On the Size-sorted Decile Portfolios:
▶ State 1:9個為負值(Recession)
▶ State 2:5個為正值(Expansion)
23. Empirical Test
03.
▶ 截距項估計較精準,因為標準差較小。
▶ Recession:隨公司規模越大的組合,截距項越小。
ρi
t = βi
0,St
+ βi
1,St
Ilt 1 + βi
2,St
Deft 1 + βi
3,St
ΔMt 2 + βi
4Yieldt 1 + εi
t
εi
t N(0, hi
St
) ln(hi
St
) = λi
0,St
+ λi
1,St
Ilt 1
,
▶ Expansion:公司規模最大的組合,截距項最小。
24. Empirical Test
03.
▶ 變異數敏感度(Interest rate係數衡量)方面:
▶ 10個組合中,9個Recession state的值大於Expansion state的值
ρi
t = βi
0,St
+ βi
1,St
Ilt 1 + βi
2,St
Deft 1 + βi
3,St
ΔMt 2 + βi
4Yieldt 1 + εi
t
εi
t N(0, hi
St
) ln(hi
St
) = λi
0,St
+ λi
1,St
Ilt 1
,
▶ 然而I1係數大小與公司規模大小無直接關係
25. Empirical Test
03.
▶ Recession:Interest rate值皆負值且顯著,隨著公司規模越小,其值越小。
ρi
t = βi
0,St
+ βi
1,St
Ilt 1 + βi
2,St
Deft 1 + βi
3,St
ΔMt 2 + βi
4Yieldt 1 + εi
t
εi
t N(0, hi
St
) ln(hi
St
) = λi
0,St
+ λi
1,St
Ilt 1
,
Expansion:7個為負值但僅2個達顯著,且其數值大小皆較Recession時期小。
38. A Joint Model
04.
▶ A Joint Model of Small and Large Firms' Risk and Expected
Returns
1. Joint Model是較合理的,因為景氣循環是同時對所有投資組合影響
▶ Joint Model 優點
2. Joint Model可以檢定景氣循環對大小公司不對稱的影響