As organizations transition from hierarchical structures to spherical adhocracies, planning and forecasting processes must also change. Specifically, separate functional forecasts must converge into a single, coordinated forecast that all stakeholders apply perspectives to simultaneously. This addresses the speed needs of new digital technologies and removes the inefficiencies of retroactively aligning separate forecasts. It also shifts forecasting leadership away from traditionally dominant functions like finance, towards more of a team-based approach.

1. Who drives quantification of the future?
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

2. “Who” = an organizational function
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

3. “Drive” = Set direction and be empowered to enforce it
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

4. “Quantification” = Expressing as numbers
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

5. “Future” = Yesterday on steroids
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

6. Forecast : To define a future state
Plan : Define how to reacha future state
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

7. Forecast can be a dictating starting point
Forecast can be an inspiringstarting point
Or simply just there, an ever changing reference
Choice of view on the role of forecast
sets the framework for planning
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

8. There is a lot more room for politics
in forecasting than in planning
No one really expects predictions to be right
Forecast errors are forgiven forgotten
Errors in actions based on forecast are not
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

9. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
Old new stuff:
“Digital”

10. …….Information technology changes forecast methodology
Technology allows for perspectives
Technology allows for teamwork
Technology allows for addressing whole (supply chain) networks
Technology empowers new parts of organization
blah blah blah…….
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

11. “New digital” is fast and embraces change.
“New digital” relies on “old brick”” to deliver.
Old brick is limited by lead times and cost of being ready.
Old brick still needs to prepare
Old brick still needs forecast
Old brick still needs planning
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

12. Smarter & faster means that organizations change fromhierarchical
pyramids tospherical adhocracies
Hierarchic Adhocracy
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

13. …..Roles and processes in forecast and planning
changes as organizations change…..
..…Information structures change…..
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

14. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
Goodbye to long planning cycles,
It´s always on

15. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
Forecast Plan
In prehistoric days….

16. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
Forecast
Plan
Not so long ago….

17. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
ForecastplanForecastPlanForecastPlan...
Now….

18. Convergedrather than
Integratedbusiness planning?
IBP “CBP”
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

19. Yep folks,
“Converged
business planning”
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

20. As organizations change from hierarchical pyramids to spherical adhocracies,
planning process, tools and information structures follow to support
SalesSupplyDev
Finance
Sales
SupplyDev
Finance Sales
SupplyDev
Finance
Hierarchic and sequential ….CBP….Cover the “transition period”
with “IBP….”
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

21. So…planning is no longer a matter of communication cross
organizational borders. It is a matter of functions working
together as if there where no borders.
How about forecasting?
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

22. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
Old hierarchical brick
operates separate forecast processes,
creates separate forecasts in
separate organizational silos.
At some time forecasts might be merged in some process and tool
but that is a ”bolted on” retroactive activity
Old brick loves retroactive”alignwith….”

23. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
Financial forecast
Sales forecast
Material forecast
Product Portfolio forecast
……..forecast
……….forecast
……….forecast
……..forecast

24. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
“Align”forecast in an hierarchical organization means fixing things
downstream, “after the fact”.
That takes too long time, uses too much energy
and doesn´t meet up to the pace of new digital.

25. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
New digitalrequires a single, coordinated number.
Time is short, there isn´t room for retroactive coordination
between multiple processes. Forecast can no longer be separated
and (at best…) aligned in late phases. All stakeholders need to
apply perspectives on the same base forecast
in the same cycle

26. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
Volume
Financial dimensions
Customer dimensions
Product dimensions
Geography dimensions
Technology
dimensions
Channel dimensions

27. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
Transition from separated forecast processes producing separate forecast to a
converged process applying
multiple perspectives on a single base doesn´t just change technology and process.
It changes the organizational balance and roles.

28. In hierarchical organizations, traditions puts finance in the driver seat of the
forecast process.
In the spherical adhocracy, finance is reduced to a formula.
Hierarchic Adhocracy
ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture

29. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
strategic
tactical
operative

30. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
strategic
tactical
operative

31. ECSCIA, European Centre of Supply Chain Information
Architecture
So, who drives quantification of the future?
It’s a team effort