테헤란로 런치클럽 Trend in ASEAN; UNITAR International University 고영경 박사님 자료입니다.

1. Trend in ASEAN:
Future of Markets
KO YOUNG KYUNG
JULY 2017

2. 고 영 경
연세대학교 사회학과 졸업
연세대학교 지역학대학원(동남아 전공)
고려대학교 경영학과 Ph.D. in Finance
Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman
UCSI University
UNITAR International University
The bell, 고영경의 프론티어마켓뷰 http://www.thebell.co.kr/front/free/contents/news/article_view.asp?key=201706280100050230003030
Dr.Ko’s Frontier Markets View – Facebook
Project Consulting

3. Table of Content
1) Economic Status & Prospects
2) Transformation to Digital Economy
3) New Trend in ASEAN
4) Startup Case
5) Q&A

4. 1. Economic Status & Prospects
- Why ‘ASEAN’?
인구규모
• 현재 전세계
인구의 60%
• 빠른 증가율
경제성장
• 높은
경제성장률
• 1인당 GDP 증가
글로벌 확장
• 글로벌화
• 신시장,
생산지역

5. Actual Data and Latest Projections Governme
nt debt to
GDP2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Myanmar 8 7.3 6.0 7.0 7.2 37.59%
Cambodia 7.1 7 6.9 6.8 6.8 36.00%
Laos 7.8 7.6 6.9 7 7 67.32%
Vietnam 6 6.7 6.2 6.5 6.3 58.30%
Actual Data and Latest Projections Government
debt to GDP2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Indonesia 5 4.9 5 5.1 5.3 27.90%
Thailand 0.9 2.9 3.2 3 3.3 41.20%
Malaysia 6.0 5.0 4.2 4.5 4.7 53.20%
Singapore 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 112%
Philippines 6.2 5.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 42.10%
Population & GDP per Capita (growth rate %) in 2016
ASEAN 5 and CLM “V”

6. GDP – PPP (USD)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2015 2016

7.  One-size-fits-all ?

8. 2. Transformation to Digital Economy

12. 3) Social Media

13. Digital Coupons
Video content
Free Trial
Side project marketing
Countdown
More mobile, chatbots
Social Media
Marketing
• Brand
Royalty
• Revenue
• Customer
Service

14. Myanmar: 모바일 시대로 들어오다
Local software developer My Play
says it already has one million
users for its five games, including
including one that allows players
to race the obstacle course of
Myanmar’s roads in a rickshaw.
In March, Australia’s Isentric
Ltd. said it agreed to purchase
the company for $4.6 million.

15. by Country

16. Singapore • 인구측면에서 소규모이지만 혁신/인재 중심 고부가가치 성장 추구
• ¼ 인구가 2030년까지 65세 이상
• 2015-19년 사이 개인소득은 3.8% 증가 예상 이미 매우 높은 수준에 도달
• Strong demand of wearable electronics – health & fitness
Malaysia • Cyber security: five most “at-risk” countries from cyber attacks via mobile device
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam
Myanmar
• 최고 인구 및 성장가능성으로 중산층 증가, 인프라 증대 및 내수(vs
수출base)를 목표로 하는 다국적 기업의 투자 대상 시장
• Potential로 지속적인 관심을 받았으나
• 아직은 소비증가가 기대에 못 미치고 있음
• potential을 보고 있지만 현실적으로는 작은 시장이어서 우선 순위에서
밀리고, 투자를 위한 법규나 정책 정리가 미진+ 여러 정부부처의 담당자들간
조율도 안된 상황
• Startup 육성 정책: USD 5M to accelerate 2,500 existing startups, with a target
to increase the number to 10,000 by 2018.

17. 3. New Trend in ASEAN
인프라 확대
도시화 진전
중산층의 증가
Transformation to
Digital Economy
• F&B, 위생용품 등의 수요 증가
• Logistics 개선
• SNS 이용증가: 광고/PR,
• 차량공유 확대,
• Retail의 변화: E-/M-commerce,
Modern vs.Traditional
• LCC 이용자 증가: 관광, 교육
및 노동력 이동
• 유아/교육사업
• 의료/건강
• 컨텐츠 & 엔터테인먼트
• 무슬림 시장의 확대
Seeding &
Boosting up
STARTUP

18. 4. STARTUP in ASEAN

19. STARTUP UNICORNs
STARTUP Country Biz
Founding
year
founder
Recent
Valuation
total funding Coverage Remarks
GRAB SG Car-hailing 2012
Anthony
Tan, Hooi
Ling Tan
USD 5b
USD 2b (Softbank &
Didi) +750M
Southeast Asia (7
countries), 55 cities
Stated life as MyTeksi in
Malaysia in 2012
UBER US Car-hailing 2009
Travis
Kalanick, G
arrett
Camp
USD 68b
Numerous over
extended period
Worldwide, 633 cities
Latest valuation USD 68b but
still reported net loss in 2016 of
USD 2.8b, Kalanick stepped
down as CEO 20 June 2017
following various reported
scandals
GOJEK ID Car-hailing 2010
Nadiem
Makarim
USD 550
M(KKR+Warberg &
others)+1.2b(Tencent)
Indonesia and India
Jan 2016 began online
operations & payment, May
2017 GoJek India started
operations
Garena SG
Internet
platform
2009 Forrest Li
USD 3.75b
(March 2016)
2017 raises USD 550m
in new funding
Southeast Asia
2017 rebranded as SEA Limited,
operations include digital
entertainment (Garena online
games), eCommerce (Shopee)
and digital financial services
(AirPay)

21. Venture capital in SEA

23. CASE I: GRAB & Go-JEK
•2012년 MyTeksi 설립(Malaysia)
•설립자: Anthony Tan, Hooi Ling Tan
•Coverage: 동남아 7 개국 55 도시
•Funding: USD 2B (Softbank & Didi)
+750M
•현재기업가치: USD 5B (추정)
•현금결제 도입
•일반 택시부터 프리미엄, car
pool까지
•Gab Bike: 인도네시아 등
•2015년 중반이후 매달 35% 초고속
성장, 36M download
•Grab Pay, Grab Reward
•R&D center: Singapore, Bangaluru,
HCMC. Plans to 6 R&D centers in
Beijing, Jakarta, Seattle)
•machine learning, predictive data
analytics, mobile-first technology,
and consumer-focused user
experience
•2010년 오토바이 중계설립(Indonesia)
•설립자: Nadiem Makarim
• Coverage: Indonesia, India
•Funding: USD 550 M(KKR+Warberg &
didi, others)+1.2b(Tencent)
•현재기업가치: USD 3.2B (추정)
•전통적 개인간 거래를 B2C 모델로
전환
•현금결제기반으로 출발
•오토바이기반에서 차량으로 확대
•Platform을 이용해서 다양한 서비스
영역으로 확장
•Go-Pay: 인니 최대
•R&D center in Bengaluru
Southeast Asia’s ride-hailing market would grow
more than 500% $13.1 billion by 2025.

26. Contents, Entertainment & Media
• Southeast Asia: 7.2% CAGR from
US$45.6 to US$64.5 million ( Globally:
4.2% CAGR, from US$1.8 trillion to
US$2.2 trillion in 2021)
• The media industry is diverse in the
heterogeneous nature of the industry in
the various markets of Southeast Asia.
• Indonesia remains the largest
entertainment and media market in
Southeast Asia, and is expected to be
the highest growing market in the
region.
• Singapore: 4.7% compound annual
growth rate (CAGR), from US$5.3
billion in 2016 to US$7.1 billion in 2021

27. Case II: Iflix – Netflix for Emerging markets
• Subscription video-on-demand
• Founder: Mark Britt and Patrick Grove
• Established in Malaysia
• Coverage: Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand,
Philippines, Pakistan, Middle east(iflix Arabia),
North Africa(iflix Africa) => 23 territories
• Cost: $2-3 depending on the country
• From counterfeit (roughly $6 B a year) to
subscription
• Funding: $170 M (
• Current Valuation: $500M
• Subscribers: 5 M members (5 billion minutes
streamed since launch)

29. E & M -commerce
• 2016년 Alibaba의 Lazada 인수를 통한 동남아 진출
• 2017년 Amazon의 동남아진출
Big Battle is coming soon!

30. Southeast Asia: The fastest growing Game Market

31. Types of FinTech Models Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) : will allow local fintech
firms to directly lend money to customers, will not regulate interest rates but
will set maximum limits on loans towards small amount lending. 현재는 peer-
to-peer lenders.
 FINTECH IN ASEAN
Vietnam: foreign ownership in Finance sector Max 30% for Bank,
100% for micro-finance
Myanmar Mobile Financial Services Regulation: only 29% of
women have access to formal financial services and 34% have access to
informal financial services. Only 7% of those between the ages of 18 and 34
years old actually have a bank account. => Lots of opportunities

32. In ASEAN, 50% of adults reported having an account in 2014
The share of adults with an account increased by 8
percentage points, from 42% in 2011 to 50% in 2014.
In ASEAN, 71% of adults reported receiving their wages in cash
The ratio of ASEAN to high-income OECD economies
of people receiving wages in cash is 6 times

35. Question?
Thank You