Achieving Predictable Project Costs    in an Unpredictable World               Richard Westney -                      Mode...
Why Be Concerned About Predictability?Wall Street Journal – 7/05: “Shell’s Cost Soar forRussian Project .. Price Tag of Sa...
Why Be Concerned About Predictability?• Studies show major cause of ROCE degradation iscapital cost overruns• CAPEX perfor...
Why Be Concerned About Predictability?• Economies of scale create mega-projects; difficult to manage& huge overruns are co...
Our Session Today• The   NEUTRAL VIEW:   Chris Carabetta – IPA: Can Contracting Strategy Influence Cost Predictability?• T...
Achieving Predictable Project Costsin an Unpredictable World          Christopher Carabetta    Independent Project Analysi...
IPA Has Benchmarked 80 Recently- Completed Large Capital Projects                                           51% Lump-Sum  ...
Lump-Sum Contracting Improves Cost  Predictability for Large Projects                       30%                           ...
Questions• Lump-sum contracting improves cost predictability  for the owner—do contractors then see the same  cost variabi...
Achieving Predictable Project Costsin an Unpredictable World                 Scott A. Mahlberg                            ...
Contractor’s View of LS Contracts• Current EPC market factors:  – Material & equipment supply / delivery / price  – Craft ...
Questions• What risk should the Contractor take – risk  allocation?• How much contingency to be included for risks  – the ...
Achieving Predictable Project Costsin an Unpredictable World                    Paul B. McNutt                    ConocoPh...
Cost Estimating: A New Problem?• One carpenter’s rule   – "Suppose one of you wants to build a     tower. Will he not firs...
A “Doom” Loop?             Improved Global                Economy                               Rising Commodity          ...
Questions• What factors at the global market, industry, company  levels makes this cycle spin faster?• What factors at eac...
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Achieving predictable project costs in an unpredictable world

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Achieving predictable project costs in an unpredictable world

  1. 1. Achieving Predictable Project Costs in an Unpredictable World Richard Westney - Moderator Westney Consulting Group, Inc.
  2. 2. Why Be Concerned About Predictability?Wall Street Journal – 7/05: “Shell’s Cost Soar forRussian Project .. Price Tag of Sakhalin II may doubleto $20 billion”Houston Chronicle 5/06: (explaining why Rich Kinderwas initiating what could be the largest managementbuyout in US history) “At a share price of$84.71investors are saying “there are risks to theseprojects so we are putting a heavy discount on (theshare price).”Upstream (5/03): megaprojects have a 50%probability of becoming “mega-wrecks”
  3. 3. Why Be Concerned About Predictability?• Studies show major cause of ROCE degradation iscapital cost overruns• CAPEX performance is now an important measureof financial performance; SOX driving increasedvisibility• “Boards have now become much more demandingin getting assurances from executives that the risksare identified, that they are quantified, and thatquantification is translated into management action”. Financial Times, 25 April 2006
  4. 4. Why Be Concerned About Predictability?• Economies of scale create mega-projects; difficult to manage& huge overruns are common• Smaller companies (independents) doing major projects withminimal internal resources• High demand has created an extraordinary seller’s market• Loss of experienced people diminishes critical competencies• Organizations were designed for project portfolios of the 90’s• Owners can no longer transfer risks to contractors• Increased influence of National Oil Companies impacteconomics and execution
  5. 5. Our Session Today• The NEUTRAL VIEW: Chris Carabetta – IPA: Can Contracting Strategy Influence Cost Predictability?• The CONTRACTOR’S VIEW: Scott Mahlberg – Bechtel: A Contractor’s View of Lump Sum Contracts• The OWNER’S VIEW: Paul McNutt – ConocoPhillips: An Owner’s View of Estimating
  6. 6. Achieving Predictable Project Costsin an Unpredictable World Christopher Carabetta Independent Project Analysis, Inc.Can Contracting Strategy Influence CostPredictability?
  7. 7. IPA Has Benchmarked 80 Recently- Completed Large Capital Projects 51% Lump-Sum Project Characteristics Engineering & Construction•US$ 204 million to US$ 2.1 billion•25 companies•22 countries 49% Reimbursable Engineering & Construction
  8. 8. Lump-Sum Contracting Improves Cost Predictability for Large Projects 30% +1 Std. 20% Median -1 Std. (percent deviation) Cost Predictability Mean 10% 0% Mean -10% -20% -30% Reimbursable Engineering & Lump-Sum Engineering & Construction Construction
  9. 9. Questions• Lump-sum contracting improves cost predictability for the owner—do contractors then see the same cost variability as the owner would if the contract were reimbursable?• Is the premium paid by the owner to achieve cost predictability on lump-sum contracts worth it?• Use of best practices improves cost predictability for the owner in reimbursable contracts—is this a better route to achieving predictability?
  10. 10. Achieving Predictable Project Costsin an Unpredictable World Scott A. Mahlberg BechtelA Contractor’s View of Lump SumContracts
  11. 11. Contractor’s View of LS Contracts• Current EPC market factors: – Material & equipment supply / delivery / price – Craft labor availability / cost – Professional staff availability / cost• Owner influences: – Lack of firm scope – Decision process• Bid costs• Contingency build-up
  12. 12. Questions• What risk should the Contractor take – risk allocation?• How much contingency to be included for risks – the price of predictability?• What other contracting strategies can provide predictability?
  13. 13. Achieving Predictable Project Costsin an Unpredictable World Paul B. McNutt ConocoPhillipsAn Owner’s View of Estimating
  14. 14. Cost Estimating: A New Problem?• One carpenter’s rule – "Suppose one of you wants to build a tower. Will he not first sit down and estimate the cost to see if he has enough money to complete it? Luke 14:28• Another carpenter’s rule – Measure twice, cut once
  15. 15. A “Doom” Loop? Improved Global Economy Rising Commodity Costs & Prices Poor Planning More Projects Overspent Projects Staff Time Demand Staff Time Demand to Justify Costs To Plan ProjectsFewer People to do More Work “Angst” for Opportunities Project Personnel to Leave
  16. 16. Questions• What factors at the global market, industry, company levels makes this cycle spin faster?• What factors at each level can slow it down?• What companies are the best in your industry and why? What do they do?

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