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How To Create A Trading System
That Makes Profits
… in 28 days.
SkilledAcademy.com
Watch The Webinar Of These Slides
here: bit.ly/AUWeb1EN
SkilledAcademy.com
Disclaimer
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential
rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and
options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or
options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those
discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN
EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH
AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH
THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR
LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Data, information, and material (“content”) is provided for informational and educational purposes only. This material neither is, nor
recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Any investment decisions made by the user through the use of such content is solely
into consideration your financial circumstances, investment objectives, and risk tolerance.
SkilledAcademy.com
I’m going to teach you this by showing you…
How I won
The Trading World Championship Three Times
in a Row
… And then won the fourth one.
SkilledAcademy.com
• Known as the only Four-Time Trading World
Champion (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012).
• Full-time professional trader since 2001.
• Appreciated author
• Part of the Scientific Committee of SIAT (Italian Society
of Technical Analysis).
• Invited as a speaker all around the world.
Brief Introduction
SkilledAcademy.com
Here’s What You’ll Learn
During This Presentation
• How to set up a robust strategy to expect profits in trading!
• How to approach the development of trading systems.
• A step-by-step real-life example of system development.
• How to avoid the pitfalls of wrong system optimization.
• Free Giveaway: an automated trading strategy!
SkilledAcademy.com
Here’s Why This Is
DIFFERENT
• This is all born from real-life experience where you bring home the
bacon only if you are able to turn trading ideas into profit.
SkilledAcademy.com
Here’s Why This Is
DIFFERENT
• This has been working over the years.
• This doesn’t use technical analysis.
• This has measurable and replicable results.
• What I’m going to show you has already been successfully used by my
students who have also been on top of the Trading World Championship.
SkilledAcademy.com
Why This Is Important
To You NOW
• Most “trading stuff” we’ve learned is DEAD WRONG OR JUST NOT APPLICABLE in the
market.
• Wrong mindset about automated trading has made people “immune” to trading systems.
• If you can’t trust a trading system, you won’t use it even if it makes money.
• Most trading accounts are losing money.
• THE TRADING GAME IS CHANGING.
SkilledAcademy.com
Is This For You?
• If you’re an experienced trader and want a big boost in confidence,
this is for you.
• If you’re new to trading and want to “jump start” your way to trading
mastery, this is for you.
• If you’re losing money in the market and you want a robust trading
approach, this is for you.
SkilledAcademy.com
Is This For You?
• If you want to build a profitable trading system as a stepping stone to
your trading success, this is for you.
• If you fancy working from home no matter your location, this is for
you.
• If you want to switch from a frantic discretionary approach to a lower-
stress automatic one, this is for you.
SkilledAcademy.com
House Rules
• No “get rich quick”.
• No “do nothing, get paid”.
• No “bargain hunters.”
• I’m not psychic, can’t predict your results, won’t insult you by trying. My results
aren’t remotely typical.
• Most people who buy ANY “how to make money” training will not make any
money whatsoever.
SkilledAcademy.com
CONFESSION!
Yes, I have an advantage over most.
I have a technical background
and am considered quite smart.
SkilledAcademy.com
So naturally, I’d have immediate
success, right?
SkilledAcademy.com
A Tale Of Ineptitude And Sorrow!
SkilledAcademy.com
Ineptitude Part Two
• I decided to try again.
• …
• I looked like an idiot.
• Lost money again.
SkilledAcademy.com
Now What??
• Door Number 1: Abandon trading and try something
else.
• Door Number 2: Figure it out and make profits from
automated trading.
SkilledAcademy.com
The Million Dollar Decision
• Actually, it was three decisions.
• First, I decided to figure this trading thing out. Nobody ever got rich by being a
quitter.
• Second, I decided to IGNORE everyone else selling “trading stuff” because they
were all super hypey.
• Third, I decided to CREATE my trading systems so I wouldn’t be lazy and rely on
others.
SkilledAcademy.com
Since 2001, I’ve been profitable
and made a living out of Trading…
SkilledAcademy.com
Some Success Stories
SkilledAcademy.com
Some Success Stories
SkilledAcademy.com
Some Success Stories
SkilledAcademy.com
Some Success Stories
SkilledAcademy.com
Here’s How The System Works…
SkilledAcademy.com
Let’s start
• Close chat, Facebook
• Mute your phone
• Tell your wife you’ll be busy for an hour or so
• Take notes!
• What I’m about to show you it’s very important…
• And you don’t even need in-depth programming skills to develop your own
strategies!
SkilledAcademy.com
Why Automated Trading
• Ideas can be tested and measured
• Decisions are made “before” and not “during”
• Emotions are kept out of the markets
• Once the strategy is ready it can work on its own
SkilledAcademy.com
Why Automated Trading
• It avoids human errors due to stress
• It allows to plan the activity
• It allows greater diversification as machines can run several strategies
simultaneously
SkilledAcademy.com
Five Pillars Of
Trading System Development
1. Market Identification
2. Strategy Type Definition
3. Idea Testing
4. Metrics Analysis – Loop
5. Optimization – Loop
SkilledAcademy.com
Let me show you with an
example…
SkilledAcademy.com
Curiosity
• Strategies are often imagined as a complex mix of indicators
• This is not necessarily true
• Strategies are built step by step starting with simple ideas and then building on
these
• Tests show results and results shall be interpreted to understand the markets
SkilledAcademy.com
Market Identification
• Instrument: Dax future
• Big Point Value = 25 Euro, Tick Move = 0.5 Points
• Time Frame: 60 minutes
SkilledAcademy.com
Strategy Type Definition
• Trend-Following Strategy
• Counter-Trend Strategy
• Bias Strategy
• Intermarket Strategy
• Spread Strategy
• Seasonal Strategy
SkilledAcademy.com
Idea Testing
• First Hour breakout
• Close at the end of the day
• The purpose of this strategy is to ride intraday trends, we let the market move for the first
60 minutes and then we enter during the second hour if it breaks through the high or the
low of the first 60 minute bar
SkilledAcademy.com
The results are not good at
all but we must remember
this is the first basic result,
not even with a Stop Loss,
so let’s test stopping a
losing position by €1,000
Metrics Analysis
SkilledAcademy.com
The results improve but we are still in
front of a losing approach, so now we
consider that the breakouts we used
might have been not effective enough, we
want a breakout that shows the will of the
market to continue in that direction, so
let’s try offsetting the entry levels by a
portion of the first hour range
Optimization
SkilledAcademy.com

Range
Portionof
Range
Portionof
Range
Long Entry Level
Short Entry Level
SkilledAcademy.com
Using different portions of first hour
range to offset entry levels we see
that above a certain value the
strategy becomes positive, we still
want to trade as much as possible so
we take 0.75 even though this is not
the best as to final results
Optimization
SkilledAcademy.com
We now have a positive strategy,
but an average trade of only €52 is
far too low for an Instrument such
as Dax Future
Metrics Analysis
SkilledAcademy.com
Also the equity line is not the most
exciting as we can see severe
Drawdown periods
Metrics Analysis
SkilledAcademy.com

Long Entry Level
Short Entry Level
Long Exit Level
Short Exit Level
SkilledAcademy.com
The new exit technique shows a
decent improvement in the results,
the average trade is now at €82, still
not enough to go live, but it shows
we are moving in the right direction
Metrics Analysis
SkilledAcademy.com
The equity line is still a bit too “rock-
and-rolling” so we have to work
further
Metrics Analysis
SkilledAcademy.com
Looking at the strategy behaviour on
different days of the week we clearly
see Fridays are losing, there is no
reason to trade on Friday under this
perspective so we keep this only for
the first 4 days of the week
Optimization
SkilledAcademy.com
The equity line is slowly improving
Optimization
SkilledAcademy.com
The results are in line with previous
net profit but we can see how the
average trade improved! We can
now add another filter based on the
volatility/indecision of the day before
Metrics Analysis
SkilledAcademy.com
Range
Body
Dailyfactor = Body/Range
We eliminate the days following a great
Body day as normally they are choppy, so
we work only if Dailyfactor < 0.75
Dailyfactor
SkilledAcademy.com
The new volatility filter shows a clear
improvement in the profits and the
average trade value above €160 is
now at a fully acceptable level for an
intraday strategy
Metrics Analysis
SkilledAcademy.com
The equity line as well shows now an
acceptable behavior
Metrics Analysis
SkilledAcademy.com
We can now go back to evaluate what
portion of the first hour range works
best as an offset to entry levels. We
can either keep the existing 0.75 or
move to the overall best of 0.95 (the
peak we are choosing is not really
dangerous as there are good results
both left and right on the optimization
report)
Optimization
SkilledAcademy.com
The 0.95 choice improves every
value on the performance report with
an outstanding average trade
Optimization
SkilledAcademy.com
The final equity line shows a clean
and constant behavior
Optimization
SkilledAcademy.com
The chart
SkilledAcademy.com
Recap
• Choose Market and timeframe
• Define most suitable type of strategy
• Test preliminary idea
• Analyze results
• Optimize and refine
• Trade the new strategy in your demo account until you’re confident
SkilledAcademy.com
Watch The Webinar Of These Slides
here: bit.ly/AUWeb1EN

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How To Create Trading Systems That Make Profits - Andrea Unger

  • 1. How To Create A Trading System That Makes Profits … in 28 days.
  • 2. SkilledAcademy.com Watch The Webinar Of These Slides here: bit.ly/AUWeb1EN
  • 3. SkilledAcademy.com Disclaimer U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. Data, information, and material (“content”) is provided for informational and educational purposes only. This material neither is, nor recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Any investment decisions made by the user through the use of such content is solely into consideration your financial circumstances, investment objectives, and risk tolerance.
  • 4. SkilledAcademy.com I’m going to teach you this by showing you… How I won The Trading World Championship Three Times in a Row … And then won the fourth one.
  • 5. SkilledAcademy.com • Known as the only Four-Time Trading World Champion (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012). • Full-time professional trader since 2001. • Appreciated author • Part of the Scientific Committee of SIAT (Italian Society of Technical Analysis). • Invited as a speaker all around the world. Brief Introduction
  • 6. SkilledAcademy.com Here’s What You’ll Learn During This Presentation • How to set up a robust strategy to expect profits in trading! • How to approach the development of trading systems. • A step-by-step real-life example of system development. • How to avoid the pitfalls of wrong system optimization. • Free Giveaway: an automated trading strategy!
  • 7. SkilledAcademy.com Here’s Why This Is DIFFERENT • This is all born from real-life experience where you bring home the bacon only if you are able to turn trading ideas into profit.
  • 8. SkilledAcademy.com Here’s Why This Is DIFFERENT • This has been working over the years. • This doesn’t use technical analysis. • This has measurable and replicable results. • What I’m going to show you has already been successfully used by my students who have also been on top of the Trading World Championship.
  • 9. SkilledAcademy.com Why This Is Important To You NOW • Most “trading stuff” we’ve learned is DEAD WRONG OR JUST NOT APPLICABLE in the market. • Wrong mindset about automated trading has made people “immune” to trading systems. • If you can’t trust a trading system, you won’t use it even if it makes money. • Most trading accounts are losing money. • THE TRADING GAME IS CHANGING.
  • 10. SkilledAcademy.com Is This For You? • If you’re an experienced trader and want a big boost in confidence, this is for you. • If you’re new to trading and want to “jump start” your way to trading mastery, this is for you. • If you’re losing money in the market and you want a robust trading approach, this is for you.
  • 11. SkilledAcademy.com Is This For You? • If you want to build a profitable trading system as a stepping stone to your trading success, this is for you. • If you fancy working from home no matter your location, this is for you. • If you want to switch from a frantic discretionary approach to a lower- stress automatic one, this is for you.
  • 12. SkilledAcademy.com House Rules • No “get rich quick”. • No “do nothing, get paid”. • No “bargain hunters.” • I’m not psychic, can’t predict your results, won’t insult you by trying. My results aren’t remotely typical. • Most people who buy ANY “how to make money” training will not make any money whatsoever.
  • 13. SkilledAcademy.com CONFESSION! Yes, I have an advantage over most. I have a technical background and am considered quite smart.
  • 14. SkilledAcademy.com So naturally, I’d have immediate success, right?
  • 15. SkilledAcademy.com A Tale Of Ineptitude And Sorrow!
  • 16. SkilledAcademy.com Ineptitude Part Two • I decided to try again. • … • I looked like an idiot. • Lost money again.
  • 17. SkilledAcademy.com Now What?? • Door Number 1: Abandon trading and try something else. • Door Number 2: Figure it out and make profits from automated trading.
  • 18. SkilledAcademy.com The Million Dollar Decision • Actually, it was three decisions. • First, I decided to figure this trading thing out. Nobody ever got rich by being a quitter. • Second, I decided to IGNORE everyone else selling “trading stuff” because they were all super hypey. • Third, I decided to CREATE my trading systems so I wouldn’t be lazy and rely on others.
  • 19. SkilledAcademy.com Since 2001, I’ve been profitable and made a living out of Trading…
  • 25. SkilledAcademy.com Let’s start • Close chat, Facebook • Mute your phone • Tell your wife you’ll be busy for an hour or so • Take notes! • What I’m about to show you it’s very important… • And you don’t even need in-depth programming skills to develop your own strategies!
  • 26. SkilledAcademy.com Why Automated Trading • Ideas can be tested and measured • Decisions are made “before” and not “during” • Emotions are kept out of the markets • Once the strategy is ready it can work on its own
  • 27. SkilledAcademy.com Why Automated Trading • It avoids human errors due to stress • It allows to plan the activity • It allows greater diversification as machines can run several strategies simultaneously
  • 28. SkilledAcademy.com Five Pillars Of Trading System Development 1. Market Identification 2. Strategy Type Definition 3. Idea Testing 4. Metrics Analysis – Loop 5. Optimization – Loop
  • 29. SkilledAcademy.com Let me show you with an example…
  • 30. SkilledAcademy.com Curiosity • Strategies are often imagined as a complex mix of indicators • This is not necessarily true • Strategies are built step by step starting with simple ideas and then building on these • Tests show results and results shall be interpreted to understand the markets
  • 31. SkilledAcademy.com Market Identification • Instrument: Dax future • Big Point Value = 25 Euro, Tick Move = 0.5 Points • Time Frame: 60 minutes
  • 32. SkilledAcademy.com Strategy Type Definition • Trend-Following Strategy • Counter-Trend Strategy • Bias Strategy • Intermarket Strategy • Spread Strategy • Seasonal Strategy
  • 33. SkilledAcademy.com Idea Testing • First Hour breakout • Close at the end of the day • The purpose of this strategy is to ride intraday trends, we let the market move for the first 60 minutes and then we enter during the second hour if it breaks through the high or the low of the first 60 minute bar
  • 34. SkilledAcademy.com The results are not good at all but we must remember this is the first basic result, not even with a Stop Loss, so let’s test stopping a losing position by €1,000 Metrics Analysis
  • 35. SkilledAcademy.com The results improve but we are still in front of a losing approach, so now we consider that the breakouts we used might have been not effective enough, we want a breakout that shows the will of the market to continue in that direction, so let’s try offsetting the entry levels by a portion of the first hour range Optimization
  • 37. SkilledAcademy.com Using different portions of first hour range to offset entry levels we see that above a certain value the strategy becomes positive, we still want to trade as much as possible so we take 0.75 even though this is not the best as to final results Optimization
  • 38. SkilledAcademy.com We now have a positive strategy, but an average trade of only €52 is far too low for an Instrument such as Dax Future Metrics Analysis
  • 39. SkilledAcademy.com Also the equity line is not the most exciting as we can see severe Drawdown periods Metrics Analysis
  • 40. SkilledAcademy.com Long Entry Level Short Entry Level Long Exit Level Short Exit Level
  • 41. SkilledAcademy.com The new exit technique shows a decent improvement in the results, the average trade is now at €82, still not enough to go live, but it shows we are moving in the right direction Metrics Analysis
  • 42. SkilledAcademy.com The equity line is still a bit too “rock- and-rolling” so we have to work further Metrics Analysis
  • 43. SkilledAcademy.com Looking at the strategy behaviour on different days of the week we clearly see Fridays are losing, there is no reason to trade on Friday under this perspective so we keep this only for the first 4 days of the week Optimization
  • 44. SkilledAcademy.com The equity line is slowly improving Optimization
  • 45. SkilledAcademy.com The results are in line with previous net profit but we can see how the average trade improved! We can now add another filter based on the volatility/indecision of the day before Metrics Analysis
  • 46. SkilledAcademy.com Range Body Dailyfactor = Body/Range We eliminate the days following a great Body day as normally they are choppy, so we work only if Dailyfactor < 0.75 Dailyfactor
  • 47. SkilledAcademy.com The new volatility filter shows a clear improvement in the profits and the average trade value above €160 is now at a fully acceptable level for an intraday strategy Metrics Analysis
  • 48. SkilledAcademy.com The equity line as well shows now an acceptable behavior Metrics Analysis
  • 49. SkilledAcademy.com We can now go back to evaluate what portion of the first hour range works best as an offset to entry levels. We can either keep the existing 0.75 or move to the overall best of 0.95 (the peak we are choosing is not really dangerous as there are good results both left and right on the optimization report) Optimization
  • 50. SkilledAcademy.com The 0.95 choice improves every value on the performance report with an outstanding average trade Optimization
  • 51. SkilledAcademy.com The final equity line shows a clean and constant behavior Optimization
  • 53. SkilledAcademy.com Recap • Choose Market and timeframe • Define most suitable type of strategy • Test preliminary idea • Analyze results • Optimize and refine • Trade the new strategy in your demo account until you’re confident
  • 54. SkilledAcademy.com Watch The Webinar Of These Slides here: bit.ly/AUWeb1EN