4. 4
New Architectures, New Leaders
Multiple Vendors
Adaptable Architecture
Change is Assumed
1970 - 1990 Minicomputer
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980 - 2000 PC
Wintel era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990 - Enterprise network
Cisco era
1:100 people/machine ratio
2000 - Broadband packet
??? era
1:1000+ people/machine ratio
1960 - 1980
Period
Mainframe
IBM era
Platform(s)
10:1 people/machine ratio
Network Operations Model
Single Vendor
Rigid Architecture
5-year Life
Source: Paul Johnson, Silver Lake Partners
5. 5
Spotting the trends…
What are the tech trends of the future?
Polymer Electronics
Rich applications on the web
Human genotyping
Personal Area Networks
Ultra-high capacity storage
Difficult to predict the future – but who dares, wins!
6. 6
Semicons and The Age of Electronics
Over the past several decades, semiconductors industry
has been driven by relentless innovation and continuous
improvement in performance
However, Moore’s Law cannot continue to support
above-normal returns
At some point, transistors will become too small to retain their
conductive properties
Current roadmaps indicate this will happen around 2015
What happens next ?
Semiconductors may go the way of the steel industry
Mature technology; low growth
Driven by cost-reduction rather than innovation
Disruptive influence of the “mini-mills” technology
7. 7
Will polymers be the disruptive influence in
semi-conductors ?
10x ~ 100x cheaper
Offer freedom in design
Promise flexibility
Have the potential for large areas electronics
Can enable cheap and ubiquitous electronics
Wearable electronics and “things that think”?!
Polymers: The mini-mills “disruption”?
Source: Plastic Logic, Amadeus Capital Partners
10. 10
Application Evolution
Usability/Functionality
• Low Usability
• Hard to
deploy
• Text Screen
1970 1995 20001985
• Low Usability
• Easy to deploy
• Web Pages in
Browser
• High Usability
• Hard to deploy
• Rich Apps on Desktop
• High Usability
• Easy to deploy
• Rich Apps in Browser
Source: Altio Ltd., Amadeus Capital Partners
Mainframe
Client Server
Web Pages
Smart Client
11. 11
Live Updates:
Data updates are
displayed in real time
Live Updates:
Data updates are
displayed in real time
Drag and Drop:
Data can be dragged from one
window to another in real time
Drag and Drop:
Data can be dragged from one
window to another in real time
Customized:
Skins, tool bar buttons
and window colors can
be customized to reflect
unique look and feel
Customized:
Skins, tool bar buttons
and window colors can
be customized to reflect
unique look and feel
Personalized:
Windows can be
arranged and
resized according
to user preference
Personalized:
Windows can be
arranged and
resized according
to user preference
Next Generation Applications
Multiple pages accessed through
single browser window
Source: Altio Ltd., Amadeus Capital Partners
12. 12
Device – Network Disconnect…
Wireless Wide Area Network
(WWAN)
e.g. GPRS, 3G, 802.11
Personal Area Network
13. 13
Wireless Wide Area Network (WWAN)
GPRS, 3G, 802.11..
Personal Area Networks
Personal Area Networks
“Bluetooth” Personal Area Networks
Are P2P Communications a Dream?
14. 14
Storage Capacity and Cost Trends…
Magnetic Data Storage (Kilobytes/ $)
(ExponentialScale)
Doubling Time: 15 months
15. 15
Spotting the trends…
How do we stay on top of these trends?
Think outside the box
Find smart people – and pick their brains
Better still make them start companies
Spot tomorrow’s problems …and turn them into
opportunities..
Timing is critical ..
Solution looking for a problem?!
16. 16
Growing a company …
How do we grow a company?
The power of Rolodex
Un-level the playing field
Strategic guidance
But..
It is rarely easy
The process is long …
…and often painful
And things happen …
17. 17
Murphy’s Law …
What can go wrong will go wrong…
Founders leave
Markets collapse
Unexpected stumbling blocks (tech and otherwise)
and of course..Competition catches up
18. 18
Path to Success…
Is there a sure-fire way to success?
Probably not …
As much serendipity as a science
Staying abreast means being prepared
For unexpected developments, trends and technological
twists..
Spotting the trends is critical to winning
19. 19
Innovation and Growth…
Wireless Data?
Hand Helds?
Security?
1000
5000
4000
3000
500
100
2000
70s 80s 90s 2000 200
2
Workstations
PCs
Microprocessor
WANs
World Wide Web
Optical
Cell Phones
Relational DB
ERP, CRM, SCM
E commerce
LANs
Web Services?
NASDAQComposite
Source: CSFB
