This document outlines a talk on manipulating the masses through information warfare and psychological operations. It discusses how biases, echo chambers, and targeted messaging can influence groups. Historical examples of information manipulation are provided, as well as modern cases like Russia's operations in Ukraine and the US. The document proposes a thought experiment of how to launch attacks to stir conflict by exploiting existing divisions in Canada and the US. It argues resistance requires breaking out of insular thinking, promoting integration, common identities, and critical thinking skills.

1. MANIPULATING THE MASSES
HACKMIAMI - SARAH KRAYNICK
@nomad_soc_eng

3. WHOMI
▸ 12+ of being paid for hacking, 25+ of actual hacking/
building/making and so on.
▸ BA in sociology.
▸ My (research) work now is focused on the convergence of
where the social/behavioural science meets technology, in
particular security.
▸ My day job is running a pen testing company that focuses
on social engineering and physical assessments.

4. OUTLINE FOR TALK
‣ Introduction
‣ psychological/sociological theory/concepts.
‣ Biases, in-out groups, bubbles of influences, preference bubbles…
‣ Targeted messaging/profiling - biases
‣ Historical manipulation/information warfare examples
‣ The Rise of Hybrid, or new forms of warfare
‣ Information Warfare - rapid dissemination.
‣ Modern cases
‣ Ukraine
‣ US - Oh the fun
‣ A example attack - how to guide
‣ How to counter efforts of control.
‣ Conclusion.

5. INTRODUCTION
‣ Why a hacking/security conference?
‣ We are at a prepuce around the world. Governments are changing, drastic cultural
upheaval, racial makeups of countries and increasing income inequality: This is leading to
more internal conflict as well as international conflicts. Conflict is no longer traditional, but
is changing, and the who is also changing.
‣ Rising rates of cyber crime, cyber warfare and cyber terrorism.

6. 1ST SOME THEORY AND TERMINOLOGY
▸ Preference bubble - our preference to be around like minded people of similar persuasion creates
preference bubbles. We like what we like!
▸ Echo Chamber - aka preaching to the choir, so to speak. We like to feel our ideas are validated. We
want people to feed us back our same ideas, whether they are valid or not.
▸ Kompromat - Compromising information to discredit an individual.
▸ Reflexive Control - Reflexive control causes a stronger adversary voluntarily to choose the actions
most advantageous to Russian objectives by shaping the adversary's perceptions of the situation
decisively.
▸ Disinformation - Disinformation is false information spread deliberately to deceive.
▸ Misinfomation - Misinformation is false or incorrect information that is spread intentionally or
unintentionally.
▸ Hybrid Warfare - A war that uses traditional modes of war with cyber, information and more modern
techniques. Focusing on a mix of soft and hard power. (non-traditional warfare).

7. BIASES
▸ "Status quo bias, a belief that tomorrow will most likely look like today, ruled
my responses.
▸ Loss aversion, a tendency to avoid anticipated losses rather than pursue
equally likely gains, filled the results of counterterrorism policy question.
▸ Herding, the tendency of large groups of people to behave the same way and
pursue groupthink, drove my social media recruits to the same set of answers.
▸ Confirmation Bias - finding information to support you are already
predetermined ideas.
▸ Availability Heuristic - The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events
with greater "availability" in memory, which can be influenced by how recent
the memories are or how unusual or emotionally charged they may be.

8. LET’S PLAY A GAME

9. Who believes the US is an English speaking country?
What is the most pressing issue in cyber at the moment?
Taxes are higher in Canada.
There are long waits for care in Canada, and care is inferior.

10. COWBOY/FARMER
▸ Right wing
▸ Small town
▸ Truck driver
▸ High school
▸ smoker
▸ closed minded
▸ racist
▸ friendly
▸ God/religious
▸ …

11. FRANCISCO
▸ Liberal
▸ Left-wing
▸ electric car
▸ uber
▸ shared economy
▸ house mates
▸ high tech
▸ public transit
▸ festivals
▸ multi-cultural
▸ …

12. HISTORICAL EXAMPLES OF INFORMATION USE FOR CONTROL
▸ Historical examples… why, how they worked.
▸ Germany ww2
▸ East Germany
▸ Soviet Russia/USSR
▸ South Africa during Apartheid

13. SOCIAL MEDIA & PROPAGANDA & INFORMATION WARFARE
▸ Propaganda is not new. The speed at which information is
spread and disseminated has.
▸ In addition everyone, for the most part has access and
can participate in the creation of content and spreading
of information.

20. PROPAGANDA IS … NOT A FLAWED
DESCRIPTION [OF REALITY[, BUT A
SCRIPT FOR ACTION …
Timothy Snyder

21. SOCIAL MEDIA USERS, IN THEIR RELENTLESS PURSUIT OF
PREFERENCE, BELIEVE THAT, WITH ONLY A FEW CLICKS
ON THEIR PHONE AND A GOOGLE SEARCH OR TWO, THEY
ARE AS SMART OR SMARTER THAN A MEDICAL DOCTOR, A
COLLEGE HISTORY PROFESSOR, A PHYSICIST, A DIETITIAN,
OR THEIR ELECTED LEADERS.
Clint Watts

22. INFORMATION WARFARE AS CONTROL

23. DURING THE COLD WAR, RUSSIAN
INTELLIGENCE ARTICULATED FOUR STEPS FOR
IDEOLOGICAL SUBVERSION: DEMORALIZATION,
DESTABILIZATION, INSURGENCY, AND
NORMALIZATION.
Clint Watts

25. WHY BE IN A MESSY WAR WHEN YOU
CAN LIGHT THE FIRE OF HATE…
STEP BACK AND WATCH PEOPLE
FIGHT AMONGST THEMSELVES.
Sarah Kraynick

26. EXAMPLES
▸ Russia/Ukraine.
▸ Will run through this in more detail in next.
▸ US/Russia
▸ No matter your political views, it is clear that Russia stuck its
nose where it shouldn’t have. The effect on the US and the
world is being felt. By itself is not war, but it can certainly help
lubricate the divide and leave a society that is broken to the
point where a take over or political battles can be bloody.

27. RUSSIAN TAKE OVER OF KRIM (CRIMEA).

28. TWO KINDS OF INFO WARS
‣ information-psychological warfare (to affect the personnel
of the armed forces and the population), which is
conducted under conditions of natural competition, i.e.
permanently;
‣ information-technology warfare (to affect technical
systems which receive, collect, process and transmit
information), which is conducted during wars and armed
conflicts.

29. ...THE MAIN AIM OF INFORMATION-PSYCHOLOGICAL CONFLICT IS REGIME CHANGE IN
THE ADVERSARY COUNTRY (THROUGH DESTROYING THE ORGANS OF GOVERNMENT); BY
MEANS OF MASS INFLUENCE ON THE MILITARY-POLITICAL LEADERSHIP OF THE
ADVERSARY ACHIEVING AS A MINIMUM AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF TIME
AVAILABLE FOR TAKING COMMAND DECISIONS AND LENGTHENING THE OPERATIONAL
CYCLE; BY MEANS OF INFLUENCE ON THE MASS CONSCIOUSNESS OF THE POPULATION
– DIRECTING PEOPLE SO THAT THE POPULATION OF THE VICTIM COUNTRY IS INDUCED
TO SUPPORT THE AGGRESSOR, ACTING AGAINST ITS OWN INTERESTS.
Yu. Kuleshov et al.,

30. “ONCE YOU START ATTACKING NATIONALISM,
NATIONAL IDENTITY, TERRITORIAL IDENTITY, AS
A PEOPLE, THEN YOU DON’T HAVE TO INVENT
MUCH. IF THAT IS DESTROYED, THERE’S
NOTHING LEFT.”
Nina Khrushcheva

31. “COORDINATED AND SYNCHRONIZED ACTION, THAT DELIBERATELY
TARGETS DEMOCRATIC STATES’ AND INSTITUTIONS SYSTEMIC
VULNERABILITIES, THROUGH A WIDE RANGE OF MEANS
(POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, MILITARY, CIVIL, AND INFORMATION),” AS
WELL AS “ACTIVITIES EXPLOIT THE THRESHOLDS OF DETECTION
AND ATTRIBUTION AS WELL AS THE BORDER BETWEEN WAR
AND PEACE.”
European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki

32. THE MASS MEDIA TODAY CAN STIR UP CHAOS AND CONFUSION
IN GOVERNMENT AND MILITARY MANAGEMENT OF ANY
COUNTRY AND INSTILL IDEAS OF VIOLENCE, TREACHERY, AND
IMMORALITY, AND DEMORALIZE THE PUBLIC. PUT THROUGH
THIS TREATMENT, THE ARMED FORCES PERSONNEL AND
PUBLIC OF ANY COUNTRY WILL NOT BE READY FOR ACTIVE
DEFENSE.
S. G. Chekinov and S. A. Bogdanov

33. SOCIAL MEDIA [...] ARE NOT ONLY USEFUL TO
COVER PROTESTS BUT ALSO TO HELP STEER
PROTESTS IN CERTAIN DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE
USE OF MISINFORMATION, FAKE IDENTITIES AND
CLEVERLY PLACED COUNTER-PROPAGANDA
Thorsten Hochwald

34. THOUGHT EXPERIMENT. HOW I WOULD LAUNCH AN ATTACK (1)
▸ Goal - Separation of the west from the rest of Canada. Why, well as an oil
company I can then work with a population that doesn’t much care about
environmental conditions and most likely a chaotic government if they
just separated. I could put in place my own people. Federal regulations
are a burden I don’t like dealing with.
▸ History: Conservative. Race relations already on a tight thread
especially in Saskatchewan after a trial that saw a man shot point blank.
The rural residents saw it as a “win” for self-defence, the First Nations
saw it as a racist motivated attack and business as usual. Economically
leans toward right, environmentally is focused on oil/gas. Tends to
think that the federal government doesn’t care about them.

35. THOUGHT EXPERIMENT. HOW I WOULD LAUNCH AN ATTACK (2)
▸ I would need to get all people on board. The infighting would between the
“west” and “east”.
▸ Message to First Nation; you will become rich, and will have your land as
your own. Security and Jobs. I would need to offer them a better deal than
they are getting now, with promising they will be treated better by locals.
▸ Message to Non-first nations, especially to those not convinced. The rest of
Canada does not care. We would need to make all of the west the US group
and the east would become the out group.
▸ Message to rest of Canada - The west will cut off the oil (Sounds familiar?) .
The rest of Canada does not care about the west. The west is not the cultural
elite, but a hard working blue caller group. The East just doesn’t understand
them .

36. THOUGHT EXPERIMENT. HOW I WOULD LAUNCH AN ATTACK (3)
▸ Once people are sufficiently angry and on board, I can
force a succession vote/referendum by getting enough
signatures or going after my MLA to force the issue,
marches, protests, rally even more support. If I had to I can
get a premier in (provincial leader) who is empathetic to
the cause, or just wants the power. He has popular support
( not much different from the current state of affairs).
▸ Now I can work on changing laws.

37. THOUGHT EXPERIMENT. THE USA!
▸ Goal - Spanish speaking revolt - wear down the government resolve…
▸ Pop - Majority Mexican, many have family on both sides of border. Many work on US side.
▸ Say we send messaging to American Mexicans, for that matter any Spanish speaker, that English
will be made the official language of the US and that Spanish will no longer be excepted.
▸ For non-spanish speakers we will push English only messaging. “English is the official language
of the US”. “Speak english”, “integration”, “jobs”.
▸ I would deploy trolls on social media, especially controversial places like Gab.
▸ My goal would be to make the Spanish speakers the enemy, the other, even though they make
up now a substantial minority, they still don’t hold a lot of power. But there are millions of
Hispanics and Spanish speakers not only in the US, but just across a border.
▸ For good measure I can fake a killing of a white english speaking texan by an “illegal”. Don’t
matter it is fake. The fires are stoked.

38. DEMOCRACY DIES IN PREFERENCE BUBBLES. THAT'S IT,
THERE'S NO WAY FOR AMERICANS TO COMMUNICATE,
DEBATE, COMPROMISE, AND THRIVE AS THESE
BUBBLES DIVERGE AND INSULATE THEMSELVES FROM
CHALLENGERS. THE UNITED STATES, IF IT STAYS ON
THIS TRAJECTORY, ULTIMATELY MAY NOT ENDURE.
Clint Watts

39. RESISTANCE.
▸ We need to break from the ghetto mentality.
▸ Integration, but that means both sides, those who are immigrants and those that are “natives”. We all
must work to make new comers feel welcome. It is not unheard of for 2nd generation kids joining the
jihad in Syria and other places.
▸ Meet each other, mix.
▸ have a common goal, identity. “Americaness”, “Canadianess”. Everyone needs to be in the in group. You
see this when there is tragedy, like 11/09, or to you Americans 9/11. People forgot who was who and
came together to support each other. Ok, some “muslim” looking folks may have experienced it
differently, but at least from the outside it looked as though most came together. Everyone had someone
who was affected by the attacks. This mentality was around during the ww in Canada/UK.
▸ But how do you keep your population together if there is no idea what it means to be apart of that
nation. In Canada I joke that the one thing we are not, is American. But when you get to the core of it, we
don’t have an identity, and that opens the door for influence and other attacks.
▸ We need to educated our populations in how to search out the truth, no matter how inconvenient to their
beliefs they may be.

41. COMPASSION FOR AND CONNECTION
WITH THOSE WHO DON'T LOOK LIKE YOU
OR TALK LIKE YOU COMES FROM
CONTACT, NOT CLICKS OR LIKES.
Clint Watts