Phase III Presentation 1

1. Phase III: Black Swan event
Team 1

2. What is a Black Swan event?
● A black Swan event is an unexpected occurrence that has an extreme impact on the world as a
whole
● This can include natural disasters, financial crises, and war
● This can be compared to a Grey Swan event, which is an event that is unlikely to happen but could
potentially happen

3. Origin
● Prior to the 17th century, people believed that black swans were mythical
● After black swans were discovered in Western Australia, the term “Black Swan event” was coined to
describe an impossible seeming event happening
Information source: BMC Surgery
Image source: Perth Zoo

4. Examples throughout history
● The Rise of the Internet
○ The Rise of the Internet allowed for new methods of global communication
● September 11, 2001
○ After 9/11, our world was changed in how we think about security, specifically through travel,
surveillance, and twenty-four hour news coverage.
● 2008 Financial Crisis
○ The Financial Crisis of 2008 began after a downturn in the housing market. Since the nature of
our economy is global, the effects of the Financial Crisis were felt throughout the world
● Other examples: The destruction of Pompeii, Atomic Bomb on Hiroshima in 1945
Source: Wiley Online Library

5. Black Swan Event:
Financial Crisis
Jobs and Earnings
● The sector that has provided the most jobs for
NYC’s young people since the turn of the century
has been retail trade.
● Even faster growing, and even lower paying, was
hospitality and food service
● In 2000, 8.4 percent of workers 18- to 29-years
old worked in hospitality and food service, but
that share rose to 12.1 percent by 2014.

6. Black Swan Event: Coronavirus

7. Virus Outbreaks
Travel Restrictions
Restaurant Sales Decrease
“Spiking commodity costs -
particularly grain - pressured
restaurants' margins and forced
nearly all chains to raise menu
prices to try to protect profits.” The
National Restaurant Association
estimates menu prices jumped 4.2
percent during 2008.

8. Housing Preservation Database
Can assess the risk
of affordable housing
loss based on online
Databases due to
Black Swan Event

9. 2020 Housing price
Zillow conducted a study on housing during previous pandemics and concluded
that while home sales dropped dramatically during an outbreak, home prices
stayed about the same or suffered a slight decrease.
2. Next Housing Recession in 2020,
Predicts Zillow
1.The 2008 financial crisis brought
the global economy to its knees and
sent American home prices into
freefall.

10. Goods with predictable price increases

11. Goods with unpredictable price increases

12. What will be on the street?

13. Black Swan Event: Nuclear War

14. Future Clinton Hill (assume）
Sources: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeZtlFeEcNg

15. Black Swan Event: Aliens
"The other" as alien, and are usually treated with hate and there is fear of them
Ex: Christopher Columbus and indigenous population
Ex: Immigration/Refugee Crisis
Ex: Legends of Aliens (rooted in real world
places-ex: Area 51, Mars)

16. Ancient “ alien” Sites
Sacsayhuamán ( peru) Pyramid ( Egypt)
Stonehenge (England)
Face on mars

17. Example of preservation of society/culture.
“In 1996 the regular gift dropping missions stopped. Many officials were beginning to question the wisdom
of attempting to contact a people who were healthy and content and who had thrived on their own for up to
55,000 years. Friendly contact had had only a devastating impact on the Great Andamanese tribes.
Sustained contact with the Sentinelese would almost certainly have tragic consequences.”
Source: https://www.survivalinternational.org/tribes/sentinelese

18. Black Swan Event: Rising Sea Levels

19. Next steps
● Gather more data on previous Black Swan events in relation to the market,
sustainability, intergalactic travel and aliens
● Ex: aliens decimate/enslave us VS aliens give us unprecedented technology
(several different maps/narratives)
● Create projected narratives based on data in the form of untraditional maps or
web-based interactive maps