Overview of the Indian Vegetable Oil Industry

1. By
Sandeep Bajoria
CEO, Sunvin Group
Chairman, Globoil – India Organising Committee
At
The XVI International Conference “FAT-AND-OIL – 2017”
October 26, Kiev, Ukraine
Overview of Indian Vegetable Oil
Industry

2. Table of Contents
 India Overview
 Indian Oil Seed Production Scenario
 Consumption of Edible Oils in India
 Sunflower Oil Scenario
 Conclusion
1

3. India Overview

4. India’s Global Presence
2
Bollywood Software / IT Yoga
Expatriate Diaspora Acquisitions Cuisine
• Global audience of c.3.2bn
• 1200+ productions annually
• One of India’s largest exports
around the world
• Indian origin employees
comprise 31% of Microsoft,
27% of IBM
• World wide adoption (World
Yoga Day)
• Recognised by UNESCO as
intangible cultural heritage
• CEOs of companies including
Arcelor Mittal, Google,
Microsoft, Citi Bank and
Pepsi
• Significant outbound
investments
• Largest manufacturing
employer in the UK
• Increasing global popularity,
several Michelin star
restaurants serving Indian
cuisine

5. Macroeconomic Snapshot
 Population: 2nd largest in the world at over 1.2 billion
 Unemployment Rate: 5%
 GDP
 USD: $2.256tn
 PPP: $8.662tn
 Public Debt: 52.3% of GDP
 Forex & Gold Reserves: $359.1bn
 FDI Inflow: $42bn (2016-17)
 Time Zone: UTC + 05.30
Source: CIA World Fact Book & Hindu Business Line 3

6. GDP Growth
7.9
9.3 9.3
9.8
3.9
8.5
10.3
6.6
5.5
6.4
7.5
8.0
7.1 7.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
GDPGrowthRate(%)
Source: World Bank 4

7. Sectoral Contribution to GDP
Source: Statistics Times
17.32%
29.02%
53.66%
Agriculture
Industry
Services
5

8. Agriculture GDP Growth
8.2
1.1
5.2
4.6
5.5
0.4
5.8
8.3
4.4
1.0
3.9
1.3 1.2
4.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
GDPGrowthRate(%)
Source: CMEI, Solvent Extractor’s Association of India (“SEA”), The Hindu
 Agriculture sector growth depends heavily on monsoons
6

9. Indian Oilseed Production Scenario

10. India: Production of Major Oilseeds
Source: OilWorld
Item 17/18F 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14
Soybeans 8.90 10.50 7.10 8.50 8.80
Cotton Seed 11.40 10.75 10.70 12.50 12.50
Groundnuts 4.00 4.80 3.20 3.40 4.40
Sunflower Seed 0.24 0.29 0.33 0.39 0.58
Rapeseed 6.40 7.00 5.70 5.00 6.70
Sesame Seed 0.63 0.65 0.73 0.81 0.67
Castor Seed 1.30 1.07 1.41 1.27 1.20
Others 0.78 0.62 0.75 0.82 0.81
Total 33.65 35.68 29.92 32.69 35.66
7
All figures in mn MT

11. Oilseed Productivity
Source: SEA
 Groundnut – 64% ofWorldAverage
 Soybean – 43% ofWorldAverage
 Rapeseed – 53% ofWorldAverage
 Sunflower seed – 39% ofWorldAverage
 Sesameseed – 72% ofWorldAverage
8

12. Consumption of Edible Oil in India

13. Demand, Production & Import
Source: Oil World
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 E
Disappearence Import Domestic Availability
 India is importing 2/3rd of its consumption of vegetable oils with domestic production
supplying the balance 1/3rd amount
9
MillionMT

14. Imports of Vegetable Oil
Source: Sunvin, SEA
Item 17/18F 16/17E 15/16 14/15 13/14
Palm Oil 9.80 9.21 8.36 9.38 7.83
Soybean Oil 3.50 3.45 4.23 2.99 1.95
Sunflower Oil 2.30 2.20 1.51 1.54 1.51
Rapeseed Oil 0.30 0.28 0.37 0.36 0.20
Others -- -- 0.07 0.15 0.11
Total 15.90 15.14 14.54 14.41 11.60
10
 Data is for the Indian OilYear beginning 1 Nov and ending 31 Oct
All figures in mn MT

15. Import Duty Structure on Vegetable
Oils
Source: SEA
Item WTO
Bound Rate
Duty on
Crude
Edible Oils
Duty on
Refined
Edible Oils
Current
TariffValue
US$/MT
Soybean Oil 45% 17.5% 20.0% 824
RBD Palmolein 300% -- 25.0% 757
Crude Palm Oil 300% 15.0% -- 719
Sunflower Oil 100% 12.5% 20.0% --
Rape/Mustard Oil 75% 12.5% 20.0% --
 Import duty is calculated onTariff Value & FX rate declared every fortnight
11

16. Port-wise Edible Oil Imports
Item Palm Oil Sunflower Oil Rapeseed
Oil
Soybean Oil Total
Budge Budge 529,021 -- -- -- 529,021
Chennai 674,941 659,645 -- 11,000 1,345,586
Haldia 1,466,772 7,550 5,895 747,993 2,228,210
JNPT 748,158 389,169 -- 242,500 1,379,827
Kakinada 422,139 335,733 -- -- 757,872
Kandla 2,625,412 102,928 293,187 1,882,026 4,903,553
KP 1,207,870 328,713 -- -- 1,536,583
Mangalore 511,235 215,900 -- -- 727,135
Mumbai 141,306 -- -- -- 141,306
Mundra 232,469 89,165 -- 490,367 903,001
Tuticorin 274,439 -- -- -- 274,439
Others 272,988 8,080 -- -- 281,068
Total 9,197,750 2,136,883 299,082 3,373,886 15,007,601
Source: SEA
Note: Data reflects 12 month imports beginning 1 October 2016 12
All figures in MT

17. Consumption Long Term Projection
Source: SEA
Year Popull.
Growth
@
1.76%
Consumption
@ 3%
Growth
Consumption
@ 4%
Growth
Consumption
@ 5%
Growth
Bn Per
Capita
(kg)
Mn
MT
Per
Capita
(kg)
Mn
MT
Per
Capita
(kg)
Mn
MT
2019 1.31 17.0 22.27 18.0 23.58 19.1 25.02
2021 1.34 18.0 23.79 19.5 25.70 21.0 27.72
2023 1.38 19.0 25.24 21.1 27.80 23.2 30.56
2025 1.42 20.2 26.78 22.8 30.0 25.6 33.69
Note: Excluding Non-edible Oils 13

18. Sunflower Oil Scenario

19. World Sunflower Seed & Products
Supply
Source: USDA 14
Country Marketing
Year
Oilseed Meal Oil
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Argentina (Mar-Feb) 2,700 3,400 4,000 1,141 1,325 1,452 1,142 1,325 1,465
Russia (Sep-Aug) 9,173 10,858 11,000 3,510 4,167 4,311 3,530 4,192 4,337
Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,100 1,320 1,600 743 963 1,040 587 761 822
Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 11,900 15,200 13,500 4,811 5,986 5,555 6,351 6,351 5,784
EU (Oct-Sep) 7,721 8,573 8,500 3,888 4,212 4,158 3,042 3,296 3,253
Other 7,703 8,253 7,749 2,409 2,643 2,661 2,066 2,256 2,295
Total 40,297 47,604 46,349 16,502 19,296 19,177 15,377 18,181 17,956
All figures in ‘000 MT

20. World Sunflower Oil Production &
Exports
Source: USDA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Production Exports
15
MillionMT

21. Last 5 years Price Comparison
Source: Sunvin
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
09-2012 09-2013 09-2014 09-2015 09-2016
CNF CDSBO CIFLW SFO CNF CPO
16
US$/MT

22. Indian Sunflower Oil Imports
Source: Sunvin
Note: Figures presented are for the Indian Oil Year beginning 1 Nov and ending 31 Oct 17
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
MillionMT
 Indian sunflower oil imports are likely to be 2.2 mn mt in 2016-17 and are expected to
grow to 3.5 mn mt by 2022-23

23. Price Outlook
18
Crude Sunflower Seed Oil FOB Ukraine (USD / mt)
Nov-Dec 2017 760 – 780
Jan-Feb-Mar 2018 765 – 790
Apr-May-Jun 2018 775 – 800
Jul-Aug-Sep 2018 785 – 810

24. THANK YOU
Дякую
www.sunvingroup.com