Academic research conducted in 2007 to propose a model and analyze a few of the path breaking trends in the technology industry.

1. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Predicting path breaking
trends in InfoTech
Sambit Kumar Dash (2004238)
Samrat Ghosh (2004240)
Guide
Prof. Y. L. R. Moorthi

2. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Notes on Prediction
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the
future.
The unpredictability inherent in human affairs is
due largely to the fact that the by-products of a
human process are more fateful than the product.

3. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Agenda
• Classification
• Brief History
• Known Models
• Attribute Analysis Framework
• Emerging Technology

4. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Innovation Hedgehog –
Good to Great
Change is the only constant - Heraclitus
•Incremental/continuous
•Disruptive/discontinuous

5. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
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Disruptive Innovation
• Proposed by Clayton
Christensen
• A non-linear model for
innovation growth

6. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
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Identifying Disruption –
Classical Approach
Innovator’s dilemma Only the Paranoids Survive

7. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
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History of Innovation
Forbe’s “Breakthrough Science and Technology
Inventions”
• Synthetic Rubber (1929)
• Television (1927)
• Electronic Digital Computer (1942)
• Cellular Phone (1947)
• Transistor (1947)
• World Wide Web (1991)
• iPod (2001)

8. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Synthetic Rubber
1929
Commercial
Grade
1875
Attempted
Synthetic
Rubber
1941
US Govt..
Usage
Restriction
1942 - 1970
Rubber Production Rise
1970 - 1990
Business Consolidation

9. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Television
1900
Early
Research
1929
Baird
Invention
1936
Commercial
Transmission
1950
Color
Television
1939 - 1945
World War - II
1951 - 1990
Better Programs - Disney Movies

10. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Computer
1936
Z1
1942
ABC
1946
ENIAC
1947
Transistor
1951
UNIVAC
1953
IBM-701
1955
MICR
ERMA
1954
FORTRAN
1962
SpaceWar
Game
1964
Windows&
Mouse
1969
ARPANET
1958
IC
1970
DRAM
1971
Microprocessor&
floppy
1973
Ethernet
1975
Consumer
Computer
1979
WordStar
1978
Visicalc
1981
IBM PC
1981
MS DOS
1983
Apple Lisa
1984
Macintosh
1985
MS-
Windows
1995
Windows95
1977
Apple-I, II

11. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Cellphone
• Technology Known in 1947
• First adoption – 1978 – Finland (0G)
• 1G – Adoption was low – Large Handset
• 2.xG – Adoption rate is the highest
• 3G – Adoption is not very high – Industry
still looking for a killer app

12. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Known Models of
Innovation for Technology
Bass diffusion model
Predicts the number of adopters based
on
1. The market potential
2. External influence
3. Internal influence
Fosters Innovation curve with phases
The three inflection points are as
follows
1. Innovators see value in
commercialization of the technology
2. Standard or dominant design
emerges
3. User needs are met or expected

13. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Technology adoption
models contd.
1973: Fox: precommercialization - introduction -
growth - maturity – decline.
1974: Wasson: market development - rapid growth
- competitive turbulence - saturation/maturity -
decline
1984: Anderson & Zeithaml: introduction - growth -
maturity - decline
1998: Hill and Jones: embryonic - growth -
shakeout - maturity - decline
Everett Rogers classifies stages in
technology lifecycle by the relative
percentages of customers who adopt it at
each stage
• Innovators and early adopters –
concerned with underlying technology and
its performance
• Early majority , late majority and laggards
– concerned with solution convenience

14. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Technology adoption
lifecycle model
• Innovators = Technology enthusiasts
Technology eventually helps improve lives; No money;
Have influence;
Gatekeepers to the life cycle; If they hate it implies
trouble; Like being “cool”
• Early adopters = Visionaries
Believe in competitive advantage via discontinuous
innovation – use technology to leapfrog competition
Bring $$ to table & demand modifications
Techies explore visionaries exploit
• Early majority = Pragmatists
Stay with the herd; Do not love technology for its own sake; Believe in evolution
not revolution; Use marketplace wisdom to see what’s valuable and then be a fast
follower; Want to improve organizational effectiveness; Prefer to buy from market
Leaders
• Late majority = Conservatives
Stick to old technology because it (a) works, (b) familiar (c) paid for; Switch only
when technology fully debugged; Delay may cause them to lose out in long run
• Laggards = Skeptics
Refuse to adopt; Works only when technology “fails”

15. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Comparative models

16. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
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Comparative models
According to Norman (1998) only
when technology becomes good
enough that the chasm between the
early adopters and late adopters is
crossed

17. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
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Steps to adoption

18. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
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Gaps
Gap I
•Between innovators and early adopters
•Innovation cannot be translated into major new benefit
Chasm
•Between early adopters and early majority
•Two different psychographs of customers
•One visionary other pragmatist
Gap II
•Between early majority and late majority
•Market well developed
•Technology adapted to mainstream
•Late majority incompetent or unwilling to change

19. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Attribute Analysis
Framework
Effectively
innovative
PracticalApplicability
Openness
and
extensibility
Stickiness
Adaptability
Easeof
Use

20. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Peer-to-peer Technology
• Communication
between applications
of same level of
functionality
• Market Definition
– The connectivity
and presence
industry in general

21. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Peer-to-peer…
• Enablers
– Enterprise IM and presence aware – Lotus Sametime,
Microsoft LCS
– Unified Communication Platforms – Siemens, Alcatel,
Cisco, Nortel
– Web collaboration– WebEx, Adobe Reader, Oracle
– VOIP Technologies – Skype
– Service Oriented and MOM architectures
– Open Initiatives – OCEAN
– IPv6 Initiatives – US Defense and Govt. adoption by
2008, Microsoft Windows XP SP2
– Better compression and stream technologies
– Research in the peer-to-peer technology – SWAP

22. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Peer-to-peer…
• Dampeners
– Piracy and Digital Rights – Kaaza and
Napster
– Enterprise Information Leakage –SOX and
HIPAA compliance
– Uncooperative and malicious
communication (SPAM, malware attacks)
– Introduction of Onion Networks – TORR

23. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Attributes Analysis
- Internet by
design is peer-to-
peer
- P2P as a career
research
- Overlay
networks
DNS,Usenet,
Kazaa,ICQ
- Public domain
academic research
- Open source
- Available on all
OS
Text M
essaging
- Job Aspirants
- Internal Sales
- Marriage
Portal
-Corporate
Communication
EvenNoviceUsers
Use

24. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Web 2.0

25. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Attributes Analysis
- Ajax
- Semantic Web
- Collaborative
Web
-Ajax,Web2.0
APIsaregetting
popular
- Public domain
academic research
- Open source
Activity picking up
- Integrates well
with Browsers
Becom
ing
a
buzz
w
ord
than
true
technology
-Wikis, Google Maps
easier to use
- Web interface is
becoming the next gen
interface
- Rich internet apps
are becoming real-Easyforusers
-Hardonpresentators
-Needfordev
frameworks

26. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Open Source

27. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Open Source…

28. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Attributes Analysis
-Work as a
community
-Publish what you do
-Acknowledgement
by peers
-Unix,DNS,
Darpanet
- Public domain
academic research
- Open source
- Available on one
or more OS
- Runs on almost
all forms of
hardware
-Bazaar opens of
many contributors
- Better for servers
- M
erger of all titans
-Adoption to
multi-license
-Commercial
License co-
existence
- Commercial
support contacts
around open
source
-Configurationnotthe
simplest
-Fairlygeekappeal
-Userinterfacestillnot
thebest

29. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Autonomic Computing
Other Additions
•Self Awareness
•Context Aware
•Open
•Anticipatory

30. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Attributes Analysis
-Significant Govt.
Funding
- AI community
aware of the research
- IBM investing a
large amount
-Remoteerror
mgmt,RAID,Tivoli,
SupportSofttools
-HP, Microsoft,
IBM
-Small companies
putting in money in
linux based AC
solutions
- DSI, AE
-Every company is
pushing for a new
standard
-Individual Elem
ents
are
know
n.
-Social and
legal
issues
m
ay
be
there
Limited to IT
data and service
management
markets-Technologyisusable
-Recoveryonfailureis
notclear

31. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Summary
• Studied the old technologies
– Identified what makes a disruptive innovation
• Identified Attributes for success of a disruption to survive
technology life cycle
• Explained technology trends based on the model
– Peer-to-Peer – will make to late majority
– Open Source – late majority ?
– Autonomic Computing – May miss early majority
– Web 2.0 – May miss early majority

32. 12-Feb-07 PGSEM project
presentation
Q & A