This document analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on different sectors of the Indian stock market. It discusses how the automobile, aviation, and FMCG sectors were affected. For each sector, it provides a brief overview of the impact and then does a SWOT analysis of a representative company - Maruti Suzuki for automobile, InterGlobe Aviation for aviation, and Hindustan Unilever for FMCG. The analysis looks at strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for each company in light of the pandemic.
2. COVID-19 and the Indian Stock Market
COVID-19 has razed the economy like never before and its effect can be felt by businesses,
investors and individuals! Such an event has brought cataclysmic consequences on economy.
Many people have proclaimed COVID-19 as the “Black Swan of 2020” with global economies
looking at its worst recession ever! As many countries adopted strict quarantine regulations to
fight the pandemic, their economic activities were forced to shut down. The global financial
market risk has increased substantially in response to the pandemic. Due to pandemic, the
global stock market has struck out nearly US $6 trillion in one week from 24th to 28th February
2020. The government of India announced Janata Curfew on 22nd March 2020 and lockdown
policy to maintain social distancing practice to slow down the outbreaks from 24th March 2020.
As a result of this, the financial market witnessed sharp volatility. Looking at the Bombay Stock
Exchange on 23rd March, the SENSEX fell by 13.2% whereas National Stock Exchange’s NIFTY
fell by 29%. The fall of SENSEX on 23rd March was the highest single day fall after the Harshad
Mehta scam in 1991.
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3. Analyzing the various sectors during COVID times.
COVID-19 has made things more worst since many sectors in India were already facing crisis
when the virus stormed them. It also brought the few sectors that were on a good run to a
hault. Even if not all, some sectors that were largely contributing to the country’s GDP were
partially or completely taken out of action. Here are 3 sectors I have analyzed.
1. Automobile sector
Even before the pandemic, the automobile industry was stressed financially from increased
emissions related upgrade costs and increased R&D investments in emerging technologies.
As manufacturing operations resume, the added burden of COVID-19 safety protocol
compliance, plummeting demand, and inefficiencies from underutilized capacity are further
exposing OEMS and suppliers to severe liquidity issues. Further disruptions are likely to
continue, bringing the possibility of major consequences to specific segments of the auto
ecosystem. Further lets analyze technically as to how Maruti Suzuki India private ltd was
impacted by COVID-19!
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4. SWOT Analysis of the company:
1. Strengths:
·MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) Crossover Above Signal Line
·Book Value per share Improving for last 2 years
·Company with Low Debt
·Strong Momentum: Price above short, medium and long term moving averages
2. Weaknesses:
·Inefficient use of capital to generate profits - RoCE declining in the last 2 years
·Inefficient use of assets to generate profits - ROA declining in the last 2 years
·Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash
·Recent Results: Declining Operating Profit Margin and Net Profits (YoY)
3.Opportunities:
·High Volume, High Gain
·RSI indicating price strength 03
MARUTI SUZUKI
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4.Threats:
·Profit to Loss Companies
·Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income
·Degrowth in Revenue, Profits and Operating Profit Margin in recent results (QoQ)
2.Aviation Sector
It started with ghost planes, and then soon bustling airports turned into ghost towns. The entire
travel industry, especially, aviation has been massively hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The
coronavirus crisis has also resulted in a sharp decline in stocks of airline companies as
compared to other pandemics in the past decades. The pandemic, followed by extended
lockdowns in India both nationally and then localized, has impacted India Inc for the major part
of the first quarter of the current financial year. ICRA said the rapid spread of the pandemic has
crippled the economy globally over the past five months, and India is no different. It said India
emerged “as the third country globally to report over 1 million cases by July 2020.” Retail sales of
passenger vehicles and two-wheelers have touched almost 85 per cent and 60 per cent of pre
COVID-19 levels in July 2020, from a situation of no sales in April 2020.
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SWOT Analysis of the company:
1.Strengths:
·Company with Low Debt
·Company with Zero Promoter Pledge
·Strong Momentum: Price above short, medium- and long-term moving averages
2.Weaknesses:
·Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects
·MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter
·Inefficient use of assets to generate profits - ROA declining in the last 2 years
·Decline in Net Profit with falling Profit Margin (QoQ)
·Annual net profit declining for last 2 years
3.Opporunities:
·Brokers upgraded recommendation or target price in the past three months
·Stock with Low PE (PE < = 10)
INTERGLOBE AVIATION LTD.
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4. Threats:
·Red Flags: Firms linked to ongoing regulatory investigations/legal cases
·Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income
·Degrowth in Revenue, Profits and Operating Profit Margin in recent results (QoQ)
3. FMCG Sector
One of the significant repercussions of lockdown is panic shopping. There has been a major
change in customer’s buying behavior over the past few days. The consumers are fearing a
shortage of essentials at their home. Hence, they are buying everything in excess just to ensure
that they won’t run out of the essentials during these tough times. The deficiency of manpower is
causing a delay in both the production and delivery of FMCG products. It is surely a dark phase
for the entire country. The Coronavirus outbreak has undoubtedly disturbed the Indian
economy. Having said that, there are hidden opportunities wherein brands can capitalize to keep
them in good shape amidst the pandemic. It is the best time for brands to win customer’s trust
but they’ve to take certain steps in the right direction. Further, lets analyze one FMCG company’s
stock in order to see how it dealt with COVID-19.
8. SWOT Analysis of the company:
1.Strength:
·Rising Net Cash Flow and Cash from Operating activity
·Efficient in managing Assets to generate Profits - ROA improving since last 2 year
·Increasing Revenue every quarter for the past 2 quarters
2.Weaknesses:
·Negative Breakdown First Support (LTP < S1)
·MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter
·Bearish Engulfing (Bearish Reversal)
3.Opportunities:
·Brokers upgraded recommendation or target price in the past three months
4.Threats:
·Recent Broker Downgrades in Target Price
·Stocks with high PE (PE > 40) 07
HINDUSTAN UNILIVER LTD.