Joosse swcs 20150727

Defining and analyzing Agricultural
Production Systems to determine the
Capacity to make Soil and Nutrient
Management Improvements in the Canadian
Lake Erie Basin
Pamela Joosse, Donna Speranzini, Keith Reid , Ted Huffman and Natalie Feisthauer
Science and Technology Branch
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Soil and Water Conservation Society Annual Conference
July 27 2015

Context
• Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, 2012
– Canada and US to develop phosphorus (P) reduction
targets by 2016 and domestic action plans to reduce P
loading to Lake Erie by 2018
• Abundance of US information
– Risk that agriculture in Canadian Lake Erie basin is not
accurately represented
– Will have more effective and realistic action plans if
have Canadian agriculture system information
• Looking at soil and nutrient management

AAFC Lake Erie Project Goals
• To identify agricultural production systems
and landscapes where there is capacity to
make improvements in nutrient and soil
management
• To conduct historical analyses to put future
capacity for change in context with what has
already occurred

Distribution of Corn in the Lake Erie Basin

Census Typology Methodology
• Delineate agricultural production systems in Ontario from
the perspective of soil, nutrient and water management
characteristics
• Developed rule-sets and Statistics Canada developed code
to apply to the Census of Agriculture micro-data
– Huffman and Saha (2009) methodology
• Piloted iterations of rule-set
• Ended up with a 3-level hierarchy that facilitates “rolling up”
if there is suppression
– 4 geographies – township, county, Lake Erie, Province,
– 4 census years – 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011
– 85 output variables

Production System Ruleset
Commercial Livestock
(Farm AU ≥ 25)
Layer poultry (dominant species 75% AU), Meat Poultry (AU ≥ 0.75 dominant species), Mixed Poultry (AU ≥ 0.75
dominant species), Dairy (AU ≥ 0.75 dominant species), Beef Finishing (AU ≥ 0.75 dominant species,
(steers+slaughter heifers)/beef cows > 2 ), Beef Cow - Calf (AU ≥ 0.75 dominant species, (steers+slaughter
heifers)/beef cows ≤ 2 ), Hog (AU ≥ 0.75 dominant species), Sheep/Goat (AU ≥ 0.75 dominant species), Horse (AU
≥ 0.75 dominant species) Mixed/ Other Livestock (Other and mixed livestock AU≥ 25)
Specialty
(Any Specialty Crop)
Sod (Only), Mushroom (Only), Ginseng (Only), Tobacco (Only), Nursery (Only), Greenhouse Flower (Only),
Greenhouse Vegetable (Only), Greenhouse Flower and Vegetable (Only), Mixed Specialty (Combination of all
specialty ha)
Fruit
(Fruit Crop ha/ Cropland
ha ≥ 0.6)
Grape (ha ≥ 0.75 of fruit crop ha), Tender Fruit (ha ≥ 0.75 of fruit crop ha), Berry (ha ≥ 0.75 of fruit crop ha), Apple
(ha ≥ 0.75 of fruit crop ha) Mixed Fruit (All other fruit system ha)
No Cropland (Cropland ha
= 0)
No Pasture (Cropland and Pasture ha = 0) Pasture (Cropland ha = 0 and Pasture ha > 0) (with and without AU)
Vegetable (Any Vegetable
Crop- includes potato and
sugar beet)
Potato (ha ≥ 10ha), Intensive Vegetable (Vegetable Crop ha / Cropland ha ≥ 0.75), Mixed Vegetable (All other
vegetable crop ha) (with and without AU)
Field Crop
Perennial (ha ≥ 0.75), Corn - Soy (ha = 100%) , Soy - W Wheat (ha = 100%), Corn - Soy - W Wheat (ha = 100%), Corn -
Soy - Spring Grain (ha = 100%), Dry Beans (ha > 0), Canola (ha > 0) (with and without AU)
Mixed All other farms

Overview of Lake Erie Production Systems
2011
Production System
#
Farms
%
Farms
ha
Cropland
%
Cropland
#
AU
%
AU
5,003 28% 473,765 33.2% 800,214 96.4%
Specialty 1,078 6% 44,164 3.1% 533 0.1%
Fruit 206 1% 3,134 0.2% 59 0.0%
No Cropland 960 5% - 0.0% 5,572 0.7%
Vegetable
1,076 6% 143,357 10.0% 1,214* 0.1%
Field Crop 7,628 42% 607,434 42.6% 13,731 1.7%
Mixed 2,164 12% 154,675 10.8% 8,691 1.0%
Lake Erie Total 18,115 100% 1,426,529 100% 830,074 100%
*Italicized numbers in tables indicate the value includes a suppressed value set to 0

Proportion of Lake Erie Cropland in
Different Production Systems
2011
Production System
%
Farms
Percent of Lake Erie Hectares (%)
(Crop Perspective) Cropland Pasture Forage
Grain
Corn
Silage
Corn Soybean
Winter
Grain
Spring
Grain
Specialty
Crops
Fruit
Crops
Veg
Crops
28% 33.2% 62.1% 71.2% 33.2% 88.0% 22.4% 26.4% 60.2% 2.2% 4.3% 7.5%
Specialty 6% 3.1% 1.6% 0.5% X 0.3% 1.9% X 1.6% 88.9% 2.0% 6.8%
Fruit 1% 0.2% 0.3% X X 0.0% X X 0.0% 0.0% 55.0% 0.1%
Vegetable 6% 10.0% 2.7% 1.1% 10.8% 1.2% 7.8% 7.8% 5.2% 0.0% 17.4% 76.7%
Perennial 8% 1.3% 9.2% 13.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% X 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Corn - Soy 14% 8.2% 3.6% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Soy - W Wheat 9% 7.8% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Corn - Soybean - W Wheat 9% 19.4% 1.8% 0.0% 23.8% 0.0% 24.8% 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Corn - Soy - Spring Grain 1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dry Beans 1% 3.4% 0.2% 0.3% 4.8% X 2.1% 3.9% X 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Canola 0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% X 1.2% 2.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mixed 12% 10.8% 8.8% 13.2% 9.1% 10.3% 12.3% 11.7% 14.6% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0%
% Unsuppressed Lake
Erie Total 95% 100.0% 94.1% 99.9% 97.8% 99.9% 100.0% 96.7% 99.3% 91.1% 92.6% 91.1%
Note: The No Cropland system is not included in this table
‘X’ indicates the value is suppressed by Statistics Canada for confidentiality

Land Preparation Method by System
2011
Production System
# Farms
Hectares % of Cropland
(Crop Perspective) Cropland
Tillage
Incorporat
es Residue
Tillage
Retains
Residue
on Surface No-Till
No Land
Preparation
Tillage
Incorpor
ates
Residue
Tillage
Retains
Residue
on Surface No-Till
No Land
Preparation
5,003 473,765 167,883 109,031 120,826 76,025 35.4% 23.0% 25.5% 16.0%
Specialty 1,078 44,164 15,840 12,529 9,726 6,069 35.9% 28.4% 22.0% 13.7%
Fruit 206 3,134 180 72 X 2,882 5.7% 2.3% X 92.0%
Vegetable 1,076 143,357 57,647 49,072 34,216 2,422 40.2% 34.2% 23.9% 1.7%
Perennial 1,416 19,006 1,625 630 1,164 15,587 8.5% 3.3% 6.1% 82.0%
Corn - Soy 2,549 117,356 34,069 42,533 40,712 42 29.0% 36.2% 34.7% 0.0%
Soy - W Wheat 1,580 111,012 23,664 21,100 66,238 10 21.3% 19.0% 59.7% 0.0%
Corn - Soybean - W Wheat 1,593 276,298 69,184 84,790 122,336 - 25.0% 30.7% 44.3% 0.0%
Corn - Soy - Spring Grain 229 15,741 4,373 4,265 7,126 - 27.8% 27.1% 45.3% 0.0%
Dry Beans 207 49,136 20,469 13,151 15,254 262 41.7% 26.8% 31.0% 0.5%
Canola 54 18,885 7,078 7,096 4,436 275 37.5% 37.6% 23.5% 1.5%
Mixed 2,164 154,675 46,805 42,742 51,413 13,715 30.3% 27.6% 33.2% 8.9%
Lake Erie Total 18,115 1,426,529 448,827 387,036 473,635 117,031 31.5% 27.1% 33.2% 8.2%

Distribution of Vegetable Systems, 2011

Manure Type and Incorporation
Production System
# Farms
Manured ha Manured ha Cropland ha
(Livestock Perspective) #AU
% Solid or
Composted
% Liquid
Manure
Applied
%
Incorporated
or Injected
%
Not
Incorporated
% Cropland
Manured
% Cropland
Incorporated
Manure
Layer Poultry 85 15,133 73% 27% 66% 34% 30% 19%
Meat Poultry 327 51,873 93% 7% 83% 17% 28% 24%
Mixed Poultry 101 57,189 88% 12% 83% 17% 39% 32%
Dairy 1,342 222,494 39% 61% 58% 42% 57% 33%
Beef Finishing 574 109,509 82% 18% 76% 24% 37% 28%
Beef Cow - Calf 1,035 77,479 91% 9% 63% 37% 21% 14%
Hog 614 156,763 8% 92% 77% 23% 49% 38%
Sheep/goat 119 7,291 86% 14% 55% 45% 32% 18%
Horse 120 5,535 95% 5% 38% 62% 30% 11%
Mixed/Other Livestock 686 96,947 60% 40% 65% 35% 48% 31%
Specialty 1,078 533 92% 8% 93% 7% 6% 6%
Fruit 206 59 100% 0% 58% 43% 1% 1%
Vegetable w Livestock 211 1,214 78% 22% 76% 24% 11% 8%
Field Crop w Livestock 1,657 13,731 78% 22% 55% 45% 16% 9%
Mixed w Livestock 910 8,691 88% 12% 73% 27% 13% 10%
Lake Erie Total 18,115 830,074 51% 49% 68% 32% 18% 12%

Assimilative Capacity of Manure
Nutrients
• Inspired by Kellogg et al. 2000. Manure Nutrients Relative
to the Capacity of Cropland and Pastureland to Assimilate
Nutrients: Spatial and Temporal trend for the United States.
USDA.
• Look at manure nutrients produced on farm and compare
to field crop removal of nutrients
– Grain corn, silage corn, alfalfa, hay, canola, spring wheat, mixed
grains, dry beans, soybeans, winter wheat
• Field crop removal balance = Manure N/P – Crop Removal
N/P
– Negative values = fertilizer deficit/demand for field crops
– Positive values = manure nutrient excess

Storage
Pasture
N Losses
Excre
ted
No pasture – All excreted to storage
Yes Pasture
Recoverable Manure N & P
Manure Spread Acres
Field Crops Other crops
Assume only 1 manure application to an acre/year – mutually exclusive, addititive
Allocate manure spread acres first to field crops , then pasture, then other crops
Allocate N and P according to proportion of manure spread acre proportions
Exported off
farm if no
manure spread
acres

Production System % Recoverable P
2011
(Livestock Perspective) # Farms
Mg
Recoverable
P
Spread on
Field Crops
Spread on
Pasture
Spread on
Other
Cropland Exported
Mg Field
Crop P
Balance
Layer Poultry 85 755 32% X X 64% 7
Meat Poultry 327 2,241 43% X 6% 51% 96
Mixed Poultry 101 2,830 56% X X 44% 1,428
Dairy 1,342 2,869 92% 0% 3% 5% - 2,095
Beef Finishing 574 1,411 93% 0% 1% 5% - 330
Beef Cow - Calf 1,035 697 85% 1% 1% 14% - 1,159
Hog 614 3,798 79% 0% 3% 18% 1,020
Specialty 1,078 12 X X 12% 15% - 601
Fruit 206 1 X X 30% 66% - 3
Vegetable w Livestock 211 16 53% 3% 15% 28% - 165
Field Crop w Livestock 1,657 146 58% 1% 1% 39% - 923
Mixed w Livestock 910 112 78% 0% 1% 21% - 1,010
Lake Erie Total 18,115 16,725 72% 0% 3% 25% -26,332
Fate of Manure Phosphorus

Conclusions
• Considerable difference in soil and nutrient
management between systems
• Benefit of entire farm population included
• Demonstrate ability to use census data to
calculate system metrics against which to
compare individual farm performance

Next Steps
• More detailed analysis of nutrient balance
• Histograms available for some variables to
look at distribution of measures at farm level
• Decadal analysis

Acknowledgements
• Technical Assistance
– Statistics Canada – Anne Munroe, Allesandro Alessia
– AAFC Staff – Jillian Smith, Evan Gravelly, Kelly Chu
• Funding
– Growing Forward 2 – Agro-ecosystem Productivity and Health Portfolio
• References
– Huffman, T. and Saha, B. 2009. Farming system changes in the prairie
grassland ecoregions of Canada, 1991 to 2006. in A.J. Franzluebbers, ed.
Farming with grass: Achieving sustainable mixed agricultural landscapes. Soil
and Water Conservation Society, Ankeny, IA
– Kellogg, R.L., Lander, C.H., Moffit, D.C. and Gollehon, N. 2000. Manure
Nutrients Relative to the Capacity of Cropland and Pastureland to Assimilate
Nutrients: Spatial and Temporal Trends for the United States. USDA. 93 pp.

Distribution of Cropland in Lake Erie Basin

Interest in Characterizing Production
Systems
• Recognition that practice adoption occurs
within a production system
• Better able to translate and apply research
results
• Use to prioritize target audiences and project
opportunities

Land Preparation Method from Typology
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Fruit
Perennial
Soy-WW
Corn-soy
Intensive Veg
Beef Cow-Calf
Hog
Dairy
All Farms
Percentage of Production System Cropland, 2011
Lake Erie Scale
Residue Incorporated
Residue on Surface
No-Till
Other/Not Tilled

Distribution of Perennial and Corn-Soybean, 2011

Canada vs. US slide
• Pie chart from Keith – update for 2012 US
Census
• Animals/ha ratio
• Inspired by Kellogg et al. 2000. Manure
Nutrients Relative to the Capacity of Cropland
and Pastureland to Assimilate Nutrients:
Spatial and Temporal trend for the United
States. USDA.

• Created commercial livestock category with >=
25 animal unit (AU) threshold
# of animals equivalent
to 25 AU
Laying hen 6,306
Broiler 12,611
Sow 91
Market hogs 185
Milk Cow 19
Beef Steer 25
Calf 56
Sheep 250
Goat 177
Horse 25

• Created beef cow-calf and beef finishing
systems using ratio split at 2
% of
Commercial
Beef
Finishing Cow Calf
Farms 19 81
AU 41 59

Area prepared for planting using
following tillage methods
Lake Erie Lowland Ecoregion
Crop Group Conventional (%) Conservation
(%)
No-till (%)
Corn 54.2 28.9 16.9
Vegetables 78.2 * *
Oilseeds 16.1 15.8 68.1
Spring Cereals 13.1 * 82.7
Winter Cereals 6.1 * 87.3

Percent of Cropland Receiving … for
Farms Applying …
Ecoregion
Perennial
Forage
Corn
Fruits &
Vegetables
Cereals Oilseeds Other
All
Crops
Manitoulin-Lake
Simcoe-Frontenac
39.2% 58.8% * 39.4% 29.3%
*
45.3%
Lake Erie Lowland
55.1% 31.6% 89.6% 55.6% 10.1% * 29.6%
Southern Ontario
39.8% 49.8% 70.9% 46.0% 17.1% * 41.1%
Solid Manure
Ecoregion
Perennial
Forage
Corn
Fruits &
Vegetables
Cereals Oilseeds Other
All
Crops
Manitoulin-Lake
Simcoe-Frontenac
67.6% 75.3% * 79.2% 51.6%
*
71.0%
Lake Erie Lowland
96.2% 70.9% * * * * 77.6%
Southern Ontario
80.0% 74.4% * 83.6% 50.1% * 72.7%
Liquid Manure

Production System
# Farms
Percent of Total Hectares of that Crop (%)
(Livestock
Perspective) Cropland Grain Corn Silage Corn Soybean
Winter
Grain Spring Grain Forage Veg Potato
Layer Poultry 216 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% X
Meat Poultry 738 2% 3% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% X
Mixed Poultry 225 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% X
Dairy 3945 15% 14% 53% 9% 7% 26% 22% 1% 0%
Beef Finishing 1634 5% 5% 17% 4% 5% 7% 5% 1% 5%
Beef Cow - Calf 6,747 13% 6% 9% 7% 7% 20% 33% 2% 4%
Hog 1101 4% 9% 1% 5% 6% 2% 0% 1% X
Sheep/goat 359 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% X
Horse 461 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% X
Mixed/Other Livestock 1,805 4% 4% 10% 3% 3% 8% 6% 0% 1%
Specialty 2,656 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 9% 2%
Fruit 1128 0% X X X 0% 0% X 0% 0%
No Cropland 3937 0% X X X 0% 0% X 0% 0%
Field Crop 26,998 52% 56% 9% 67% 66% 35% 30% 75% 88%
Provincial Total (ha) 51,950 3,621,797 822,466 109,954 997,498 458,484 171,321 840,901 56,821 15,129

Production System
Avg Cropland
/farm Total % AU
%Cropland and
Pasture
receiving
Manure
%Conventional
Till Cropland on
farm
%Conventional
Till ha in
Province
%Farms with
Winter Cover
Crops
%Natural Area
on-farm in
Province
Fertilizer and
Lime Expense/
ha Cropland
(Livestock
Perspective)
Layer Poultry 92 2% 34% 33% 1% 10% 0% $155
Meat Poultry 86 4% 31% 30% 2% 13% 1% $178
Mixed Poultry 58 5% 40% 26% 0% 13% 0% $171
Dairy 137 25% 48% 50% 18% 17% 10% $125
Beef Finishing 110 15% 42% 45% 6% 17% 4% $143
Beef Cow - Calf 72 21% 40% 43% 9% 8% 22% $78
Hog 145 12% 46% 37% 6% 19% 2% $142
Sheep/goat 66 1% 36% 41% 1% 15% 1% $99
Horse 20 1% 41% 42% 0% 2% 1% $57
Mixed/Other Livestock 84 9% 44% 48% 5% 17% 4% $104
Specialty 28 0% 7% 42% 2% 18% 3% $981
Fruit 14 0% 8% 71% 0% 9% 1% $249
No Cropland 0 1% 57% 30% 0% 1% 5% $0
Field Crop 70 4% 9% 32% 50% 13% 46% $177
Provincial Value 70 2418167 26% 37% 1,061,425 12% 646,579 $166

Production System
# Farms
(Crop Perspective) Cropland Grain Corn Silage Corn Soybean
Winter
Grain
Spring
Grain Forage Veg Potato
Livestock 17,231 45% 42% 91% 31% 32% 65% 69% 8% 9%
Specialty 2,656 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 9% 2%
Fruit 1,128 0% X X X 0% 0% X 0% 0%
No Cropland 3,937 0% X X X 0% 0% X 0% 0%
Potato 94 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 83%
Intensive Vegetable 793 0% 0% X 0% 0% 0% X 24% 0%
Mixed Vegetable 1665 4% 6% 1% 4% 5% 2% 1% 47% 5%
Perennial 8,396 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 20% 0% 0%
Corn - Soy 4,329 6% 13% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Soy - W Wheat 2,214 4% 0% 0% 9% 14% 0% X 0% 0%
Corn - Soybean - W Wheat 2,442 12% 18% 0% 18% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Corn - Soy - Spring Grain 602 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Dry Beans 488 4% 5% 0% 4% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Canola 284 3% 2% X 2% 4% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Mixed Other 5691 11% 11% 8% 15% 14% 14% 8% 3% 0%
Provincial Total (#, ha) 51,950 3,621,797 822,466 109,954 997,498 458,484 171,321 840,901 56,821 15,129

Production System
Avg Cropland
/farm Total % AU
%Cropland
and Pasture
receiving
Manure
%Conventional
Till Cropland
on farm
%Conventional
Till ha in
Province
%Farms
with Winter
Cover Crops
%Natural Area
on-farm in
Province
Fertilizer and
Lime Expense/
ha Cropland(Crop Perspective)
Livestock 95 95% 43% 44% 47% 13% 45% $115
Specialty 28 0% 7% 42% 2% 18% 3% $981
Fruit 14 0% 8% 71% 0% 9% 1% $249
No Cropland 0 1% 57% 30% 0% 1% 5% $41,737
Potato 281 0% 8% 57% 1% 65% 0% $546
Intensive Vegetable 20 0% 10% 60% 1% 25% 1% $753
Mixed Vegetable 96 0% 5% 38% 5% 35% 3% $268
Perennial 21 3% 29% 48% 1% 3% 17% $19
Corn - Soy 53 0% 5% 32% 7% 9% 5% $192
Soy - W Wheat 68 0% 3% 23% 3% 13% 2% $132
Corn - Soybean - W Wheat 177 0% 4% 26% 11% 20% 4% $204
Corn - Soy - Spring Grain 76 0% 6% 29% 1% 13% 1% $176
Dry Beans 285 0% 6% 36% 5% 27% 1% $212
Canola 336 0% 4% 35% 3% 18% 1% $185
Mixed Other 73 1% 11% 36% 12% 17% 10% $134
Provincial Value 70 2418167 26% 37% 1,061,425 12% 646,579 $166

Production System
# Farms
(Livestock
Perspective) Cropland Grain Corn Silage Corn Soybean
Winter
Grain Spring Grain Forage Veg Potato
Layer Poultry 85 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0
Meat Poultry 327 2% 3% 0% 2% 3% 1% 0% 0% X
Mixed Poultry 101 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% X
Dairy 1342 10% 8% 53% 5% 6% 22% 35% 0% X
Beef Finishing 574 4% 4% 16% 2% 4% 10% 5% 0% 7%
Beef Cow - Calf 1,035 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 10% 17% 1% 1%
Hog 614 6% 10% 1% 5% 6% 4% 1% 0% 0%
Sheep/goat 119 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0%
Horse 120 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% X
Mixed/Other Livestock 686 4% 3% 12% 2% 3% 11% 9% 0% 1%
Specialty 1,078 3% 0% 0% 2% X 2% 0% 8% X
Fruit 201 0% 0% 0% X X 0% X 0% X
No Cropland 960 0% 0% 0% X 0% 0% X 0% 0%
Field Crop 10,872 63% 65% 12% 76% 70% 38% 28% 83% 87%
Lake Erie Total (ha) 18,115 1,426,529 391,547 43,238 484,874 242,512 36,299 137,906 39,455 5,441

Production System
Avg Cropland
/farm Total % AU
%Cropland and
Pasture
receiving
Manure
%Conventional
Till Cropland on
farm
%Conventional
Till ha in
Province
%Farms with
Winter Cover
Crops
%Natural Area
on-farm in
Province
Fertilizer and
Lime Expense/
ha Cropland
(Livestock
Perspective)
Layer Poultry 97 2% 26% 28% 1% 11% 1% $178
Meat Poultry 96 6% 28% 30% 2% 18% 2% $194
Mixed Poultry 65 7% 38% 26% 0% 15% 1% $167
Dairy 112 27% 59% 54% 14% 21% 8% $132
Beef Finishing 95 13% 41% 40% 4% 26% 3% $158
Beef Cow - Calf 77 9% 34% 38% 5% 16% 8% $136
Hog 137 19% 49% 34% 6% 20% 4% $144
Sheep/goat 55 1% 34% 42% 0% 19% 0% $118
Horse 18 1% 42% 48% 0% 4% 1% $86
Mixed/Other Livestock 75 12% 51% 49% 5% 25% 4% $126
Specialty 41 0% 6% 42% 4% 30% 5% $1,109
Fruit 15 0% 1% 71% 0% 10% 1% $345
No Cropland 0 1% 60% 30% 0% 2% 3% $0
Field Crop 83 3% 6% 30% 59% 18% 60% $205
Lake Erie Value 79 830074 20% 34% 448,827 18% 121,843 $213

Variables and Data for Analysis
Synthesis and Analysis
of Existing Data
New Data Collection and Analysis
Production
systems
 Farming systems typology
 Crop rotation analysis of remotely
sensed crop types
Soil and Nutrient
Practices
 FEMS 2001, 2006
 Census tillage questions
 FEMS 2011
 Tillage and nutrient questions analysed
by production system
Bare Soil  Soil Cover indicator  Remote sensing analysis of winter cover
 Production system Soil Cover x
landscape vulnerability
Soil erosion  Risk of Soil Erosion by Water
 Risk of Soil Erosion by Tillage
 Production system Water Erosion
estimate x landscape vulnerability
Excess P and P
Losses
 P balance, Cumulative P, IROWC-P,
Cumulative P x landscape
vulnerability
 Production system P balance x landscape
vulnerability
Excess N and N
losses
 RSN, IROWC-N, Residual N x
 Production system N balance x

Farm Environmental Management Survey
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Every year Every 2-3
years
Every 4-5
years
Every 6 years
or more
Do not test
PercentageofFarmsApplyingCommercial
Fertilizer
Frequency of Soil Nutrient Testing – Ontario
2001
2006
2011
For Discussion Only – Do Not Distribute

Our approach
• Risk = source x transport pathway
* Soil is a source, but movement of soil is also a pathway. Therefore, like nutrients,
risk of sediment loss still depends if the pathway exists and/or is operating
Risk Source Dominant Transport Pathway
Loss of Particulate Phosphorus (PP) Soil Phosphorus Water erosion to surface water
Loss of Dissolved Reactive
Phosphorus (DRP)
Soil Phosphorus Runoff to surface water
Loss of Nitrate (NO3
-) Soil Nitrogen Leaching through soil
Loss of Soil Soil Water erosion to surface water

Storage
Pasture
Losses
Excre
ted
Yes Pasture
Manure Spread Acres
Pasture Field Crops Other crops
Assume only 1 manure application to an acre/year – mutually exclusive, additional
Field crops = grain corn, silage corn, alfalfa,
hay, canola, spring wheat, mixed grains, dry
beans, soybeans, winter wheat

Lake Erie Project Goals
• To identify agricultural production systems
and landscapes where there is capacity to
make improvements in nutrient and soil
management
• To conduct historical analyses to put future
capacity for change in context with what has
already occurred
• Main reports are Production System Profiles
and a Lake Erie Agri-environmental “Atlas”

Updated Results
• Level I 5 systems, Level II 34 systems, Level III 50
systems
• 85 output variables – total, pseudo 5% and 95%
values
– 23 derived variables for assimilative capacity
• 38 histogram variables – distribution of individual
farm values
• 4 geographies – CCS (twp), CD (cty), Province,
Lake Erie
• 4 census years – 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011

• Pilot Total AU in province 3401423.825
– Pilot AU in Livestock 3389193.25
– 99.6% of AU
– 25,761 farms – 49.6%
• Updated typology AU in province 2418167
– Commercial livestock AU 2202796
– 91.1% of AU
– 17,231 farms – 33.2%

• Pilot cropland for livestock
– 1869234.88/ 3613821.72 – 51.7%
– Grain corn – 382761.30/822465.29 - 46.5%
• Updated Cropland for livestock
– 1644402/3621797 – 45.4%
– Grain corn 348779/822466 – 42.4%

Changes to Typology (3)
• Added horse, mixed flower/vegetable greenhouse, and
non-cropland production systems
• Clarified thresholds
– =100% for field crop rotations so no splinter acres
– >=75% to be considered dominant species or crop for most
• Created level with and without AU for field crop
categories
• Collapsed to 3 levels of hierarchy
• Able to have Stats Can do weighting of CCS for Lake
Erie specific output total
– 19,695 farms in pilot to 18,115 farms in update for 2011

Commercial Scale Livestock
(5,003) 28%
 25 AU
Poultry (513) 75% of AU
Layer poultry (85) 75% of poultry AU
Meat poultry (327)
Mixed Poultry (101)
Dairy (1,342)
Beef (1,609)
Beef Finishing (574) ratio > 2
Beef Cow-Calf (1,035) ratio 2
Hog (614)
Sheep/Goat (119)
Horse (120)
Mixed/Other Livestock (686)
Speciality
(1,078) 6%
1) Sod (24) 2) Mushroom (15) 3) Ginseng (160) 4) Tobacco (174)
5) Nursery (212) 6) Greenhouse flowers (169)
7) Greenhouse vegetables (221) 8) Flower/Vegetable Greenhouse (35) 9) Mixed Specialty (67)
Fruit
(201) 1%
0.6 of cropland
1) Grape (38) 2) Tender fruit and pears (18) 75% of fruitland
3) Berries (47) 4) Apples (75) 5) Mixed Fruit (22)
No Cropland
(960) 5%
No Pasture (363)
1) With AU (223) AU>0
2) Without AU (140) AU=0
With Pasture (597)
1) With AU (561)
2) Without AU (36)
Number of Census Farms by Production System Lake Erie= 18,115
35% of provincial farms
34% of provincial AU
For Discussion Only – Do not Distribute

10
Field Crops
(10,872) 60%
Potatoes (37) > 10 ha potatoes
1) With AU (*)
2) Without AU (*)
Intensive vegetables (234) 75% of cropland
1) With AU (44)
2) Without AU (190)
Mixed vegetables with field crops (773) grows veg
1) With AU (166)
2) Without AU (606)
Forage Based System (1,416) 75% of cropland
1) With AU (1,030)
2) Without AU (385)
Corn-soybean (2,549) 100% of cropland*
1) With AU (307)
2) Without AU (2,242)
Soybean – W Wheat (1,580) *
1) With AU (107)
Corn- soybean- W Wheat (1,593) * 1) With AU (130)
Corn-soybean-spring grain (229) *
1) With AU (38)
2) Without AU (191)
Grows dry beans (207)
1) With AU (37)
2) Without AU (170)
Grows canola (56)
1) With AU (8)
2) Without AU (48)
Mixed/other cropping systems (2,200) 12%
1) With AU (912)
Number of Census Farms by Production System Lake Erie= 18,115

Lake Erie Cropland
Production System
% Farms
Percent of Lake Erie Hectares (%)
Cropland Pasture Forage
Grain
Corn
Silage
Corn Soybean
Winter
Grain
Spring
Grain
Specialty
Crops
Fruit
Crops
Veg
Crops
Commercial Livestock 28% 33% 62% 71% 33% 88% 22% 26% 60% 2% 4% 8%
Specialty 6% 3% 2% 0% X 0% 2% X 2% 89% 2% 7%
Fruit 1% 0% 0% X X 0% X X 0% 0% 55% 0%
No Cropland 5% 0% 6% X 0% 0% X 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vegetable 6% 10% 3% 1% 11% 1% 8% 8% 5% 0% 17% 77%
Field Crop 42% 43% 19% 14% 45% 0% 56% 51% 18% 0% 1% 0%
Mixed 12% 11% 9% 13% 9% 10% 12% 12% 15% 0% 13% 0%
% of Lake Erie Total
Unsuppressed 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 100% 100% 97% 99% 91% 93% 91%

Production System
Avg Cropland
ha/farm % Total AU
%Cropland
and Pasture
receiving
Manure
%Conventional
of Tilled
Cropland on
farms
%Conventional
Till ha in Lake
Erie
%Farms with
Winter
Cover Crops
%Natural
Area in Lake
Erie
Fertilizer and
Lime Expense/
ha Cropland +
Greenhouse(Crop Perspective)
Livestock 95 96% 46% 42% 37% 20% 31% $142
Specialty 41 0% 6% 42% 4% 30% 5% $1,109
Fruit 15 0% 1% 71% 0% 10% 1% $345
No Cropland 0 1% 60% 30% 0% 2% 3% X
Potato 224 X 8% 58% 1% 72% 1% $621
Intensive Vegetable 35 0% 11% 60% 1% 37% 1% $719
Mixed Vegetable 157 0% 4% 38% 10% 47% 6% $296
Forage Dominant 13 1% 37% 48% 0% 5% 6% $36
Corn - Soy 46 0% 5% 29% 8% 10% 13% $209
Soy - W Wheat 70 0% 2% 21% 5% 13% 7% $130
Corn - Soybean - W Wheat 173 0% 3% 25% 15% 20% 10% $204
Corn - Soy - Spring Grain 69 0% 4% 28% 1% 19% 1% $169
Dry Beans 237 0% 7% 42% 5% 29% 1% $226
Canola 343 X 5% 38% 2% 32% 1% $198
Mixed Other 73 1% 10% 34% 11% 21% 14% $156
Lake Erie Value 79 830,074 20% 34% 448,827 18% 121,843 $213

StoragePasture
Excre
ted
Yes Pasture
Grazing N & P =
Total Excreted x
grazing proportion
• Excreted N and P - Use AAFC coefficients from Interpolated Census of
Agriculture and NAHARP
• Proportion manure on pasture - from CANB v 4.0 model , Yang, FEMS

Storage
Pasture
Excre
ted
Yes Pasture
P retained in storage
Ratio liquid and solid from Yang, derived from COA 1996-2011 and FEMS 2001
N retained calculated from FEMS 2011 manure storage types for liquid and
solid by sector and Yang et al. 2011 Table 1. Emissions
N Losses

Storage
Pasture
Losses
Excre
ted
Yes Pasture
b. Recoverable Manure N = Total excreted x (1-grazing proportion) x (1-losses)
a. Recoverable Manure N = Total
excreted x (1-losses)

Storage
Pasture
Losses
Excre
ted
Yes Pasture
Manure Spread Acres
Exported
off farm
Manured area - from Census questions on solid and liquid manure incorporation or
surface application area

Field Crops
• Grain corn, silage corn, alfalfa, hay, canola, spring
wheat, mixed grains, dry beans, soybeans, winter
wheat
• Looked at crops used by USDA, AEI and what was
available for Ontario yield and crop removal data
• Outputs of N and P on each land type, rates of nutrient
application on each land type – totals or histograms
• Field crop removal balance = Manure N/P – Crop
Removal N/P
– Negative values = fertilizer deficit/demand for field crops
– Positive values = manure nutrient excess
• Still waiting on results

Joosse swcs 20150727

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Editor's Notes