Chris Wernham (BTO Scotland)

1. Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme
Trends in breeding numbers and
productivity
Chris Wernham (BTO Scotland SRMG Representative)
Common Buzzard (John Harding/BTO Images)

2. Brief scene-setting to trends work
The new trends that are available
Why I’m a raptor in goose’s feathers!
(thank yous)
White-tailed Eagle (Liz Cutting/BTO Images)

3. Common Buzzard (Tom Cadwallender/BTO Images)
Scene-setting
New trends
Acknowledgements

4. White-tailed Eagle (Liz Cutting/BTO Images) Red Kite (Sarah Kelman/BTO Images)

5. Golden Eagle (Sarah Kelman/BTO Images) Peregrine (Dennis Atherton/BTO Images)

6. 750+ nesting ranges per year
400+ nesting ranges per year
Golden Eagle Peregrine

7. Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme
Publication of trends in numbers and productivity
Monitoring approaches were not originally designed for producing long-term trends
(not a standardised approach compared with other long-term schemes like BBS)
Those collecting the data did not individually sign up to contribute to the SRMS
So the SRMS needed to:
• Encourage volunteers to share raw data, including sensitive precise nest locations
• Ask volunteers to also record nesting ranges that did not have birds present
• Consult with volunteers/SRSG branches on areas that were surveyed
comprehensively each year and on changes in survey effort between years
• Filter and standardise the records so that occupancy and breeding outcomes at
individual nesting ranges could be linked across years to produce rigorous trends
A technical report on the SRMS website explains all the work that needed to be done
and the assumptions that had to be made when developing the trends for publication
Sparrowhawks (John Harding/BTO Images)
https://raptormonitoring.org/trends

8. https://raptormonitoring.org/trends
Breeding numbers
Productivity
• Breeding success
• Clutch size
• Brood size
• Number of fledglings

9. 12 SRMS Regions 21 Natural Heritage Zones
Geographic scales: National & Regional

10. Species focus
Peregrine
Summary of trends
ˢ Sample sizes small
Peregrine (Philip Croft/BTO Images)
SRMS Region Pairs Success Clutch size Brood size Number of fledglings
Argyll Decrease ˢ (-11%) Not significant ˢ — — —
Central Not significant ˢ Not significant ˢ — — Not significant ˢ
Dumfries & Galloway Not significant Not significant Not significant ˢ Not significant ˢ Decrease (-2.4%)
Highland — — — — —
Lewis & Harris — — — — —
Lothian & Borders Not significant Decrease (-2.1%) Not significant Not significant ˢ Not significant
North East Scotland Not significant Increase (8.3%) — — —
Orkney Not significant ˢ Decrease ˢ (-2.4%) — — —
Shetland — — — — —
South Strathclyde Not significant Non-linear — — Not significant
Tayside & Fife Decrease (-4.1%) Not significant — — Not significant
Uist — — — — —

11. Species focus
Peregrine
Trends in breeding numbers
Peregrine (Philip Croft/BTO Images)

12. Species focus
Peregrine
Trends in breeding success
Peregrine (Edmund Fellowes/BTO Images)

13. Regional focus
NHZ11
Cairngorm Massif
Peregrine (Philip Croft/BTO Images)
Merlin (John Proudlock/BTO Images)

14. Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme
Publication of trends in numbers and productivity
• Accounts for each species
• Accounts for each SRMS region and Natural Heritage Zone
• Accounts for each of breeding numbers and the four
productivity parameters
• Interactive tool to select species, parameters of interest and
compare trends between regions
• Technical report with full background methods and
summary of current monitoring gaps
https://raptormonitoring.org/trends

15. Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme - trends
Who has made it possible?
• Members of the UK Raptor Working Group, on whose recommendations the SRMS was founded in 2002
• SRMS funders - NatureScot, BTO, RSPB, Scottish Forestry, Forest & Land Scotland, SOC
• NatureScot for providing a large proportion of the direct funding and for chairing the SRMS
• Colleagues at BTO - for monitoring, volunteer engagement and IT expertise and support to the SRMS over
the years (David Noble, Dave Leech, Carl Barimore, Andrew Joys, Matt Baxter, Ben Darvill, Steve Willis,
Anne Cotton)
• Staffan Roos (ex BTO Scotland and RSPB Scotland) for much previous work on trends using SRMS data
• SRMS Annual Report Editorial Board for work on the trends publication

16. Scottish
Raptor
Monitoring
Group
Patrick Stirling-Aird, Wendy
Mattingley, Brian Etheridge,
Logan Steele, Alan Heavisides,
Jon Hardey
Jerry Wilson, Arjun Amar,
Staffan Roos, Mark Eaton,
Nick Wilkinson
CHAIR - Andrew Stevenson, Des
Thompson, Helen Riley, Nigel
Buxton, Rhys Bullman, Gillian Agnew
Mark Holling,
Mark Eaton
Mark Holling,
Gordon Riddle,
Mike Thornton
Humphrey Crick, Staffan Roos,
Andrew Dobson, Mark Wilson,
Chris Wernham
Colin Edwards, Juli Titherington Kenny Kortland
David Stroud,
Danny Heptinstall,
Matt Parsons

17. Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme - trends
Who has made it possible?
Amy Challis
Scottish Raptor Monitoring Coordinator
2014 - present
Brian Etheridge
Scottish Raptor Monitoring Officer
2003 - 2014
Mark Wilson
BTO Scotland Senior Research Ecologist
Trends analyses

18. Those who do the survey work!
• Mostly SRSG members
• Over 800 contributors of data to the trends
2009-2018
• Mostly voluntary in their own time
• Valued in the SRMS Memorandum of
Agreement at £1.7 million each year (10,000+
days each year)
• SRSG Branch Chairs and Species Coordinators
for all their support for the SRMS over the last
20 years
Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme - trends
Who has made it possible?