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Water-food Interlinkages and the Nexus

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The presentation on 'Water-food Interlinkages and the Nexus' was given by Floor Brouwer at the University of Exeter, UK.

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Water-food Interlinkages and the Nexus

  1. 1. Water-food interlinkages and the Nexus University of Exeter (UNEXE) Floor Brouwer Wageningen Economic Research Exeter, 23/02/2018
  2. 2. 2 Sustainable Integrated Management FOR the Nexus of water-land-food-energy-climate for a resource- efficient Europe • Target at a resource-efficient Europe • Nexus-compliant practices regarding water-land- food-energy-climate • Focus on the sustainable & integrated management of resources
  3. 3. 3 Resource-efficient Europe • Increase economic output produced per unit of input (e.g. water, land, energy) • The Jevons paradox (1865) says that improvements in resource efficiency cause a decline in resource prices, increasing affordability and hence cause an incentive to increase resource use (rebound effect) • Direct rebound effect might be 20%. In such case, a 10% increase in resource efficiency would result in an 8% reduction of resource use only. Twenty percent of the savings will be offset by changes in consumer’s and producer’s behaviour
  4. 4. 4 Pyramid in a circular economy Reduce Re-use Recycle
  5. 5. 5 Nexus of water-land-food-energy-climate • Interdependence of using natural resources (energy, food, water, land) • Identifying trade-offs is essential, but exploring synergies in using natural resources efficiently is important – focus at coherence of public policies and private sector measures • Governance by policy, business and NGOs • SIM4NEXUS will work in a transdisciplinary way on a challenge that is defined with local stakeholders from policy, business and civil society organisations
  6. 6. 6 Policy Linkages • The Nexus touches on many different policy areas Circular economy Bio-based economy Low-carbon economy Social welfare Resource efficiency Access to clean water International development
  7. 7. 7 Policy coherence – manage resources sustainably • Definition: Systematic effort to reduce conflicts and promote synergies and cooperation within and across individual policy areas at different administrative and spatial scales • Two perspectives: Policy content Policy process What? How? Cases
  8. 8. 8 Analysis EU Water – Land – Energy – Food - Climate policies
  9. 9. 9 Selection of 33 EU WLEFC objectives Criteria: • Relevance of the objectives to the project and cases • Potential of the objectives to have a high number of interactions • Unambiguous and clear definition • Also looked at policy instruments EU WATER POLICY W1 Achieve good water quality status W2 Ensure sufficient supply of good quality surface water and groundwater for people’s needs, the economy and the environment W3 Increase water efficiency W4 Reduce water consumption W5 Assess and manage flood risk and mitigate flood effects W6 Address and mitigate water scarcity and drought EU ENERGY POLICY E1 Increase production of biofuel E2 Increase consumption of biofuel E3 Increase production of energy from biomass (excluding biofuel) E4 Increase consumption of energy from biomass (excluding biofuel) E5 Increase hydro-energy production E6 Increase hydro-energy consumption E7 Increase energy efficiency E8 Reduce energy consumption E9 Push forward important energy infrastructure projects (grid, network, interconnectors, etc.) E10 Achieve energy supply security EU LAND USE POLICY L1 Restoring degraded soils to a level of functionality consistent with at least current and intended use L2 Prevent soil degradation L3 Maintain and enhance forest cover L4 Prevent indirect land use change from nature to productive use EU FOOD AND AGRICULTURE POLICY F1 Contribute to farm incomes (if farmers respect rules on environment, land management, soil protection, water management, food safety, animal health and welfare - ‘cross-compliance’) F2 Improve competitiveness of agricultural sector (including sector-specific support and international trade issues) F3 Ensure provision of environmental public goods in the agriculture sector F4 Support rural areas economy (employment, social fabric, local markets, diverse farming systems) F5 Promote resource efficiency in the agriculture, food and forestry sectors F6 Reduce and prevent food waste F7 Reduce intake of animal protein in human diet (non-binding objective; expressed intention on a research phase) EU CLIMATE POLICY C1 Reduce GHGs emissions to keep global temperature increase within 2 degrees C2 Increase efficiency of the transport system C3 Support the development and uptake of low-carbon technology C4 Support the development and uptake of safe CCS technology C5 Incentivize more climate-friendly land use C6 Promote adaptation in key vulnerable EU sectors and in MSs
  10. 10. 10 Coherence analysis Typology of bilateral interactions (Nilsson et al., 2016) Cancelling Progress in one objective makes it impossible to reach another objective and possibly leads to a deteriorating state of the second. A choice has to be made between the two Counteracting The pursuit of one objective counteract another objective Constraining The pursuit of one objective sets a condition or a constraint one the achievement of another objective Consistent There is no significant interaction between two objectives Enabling The pursuit of one objective enables the achievement of another objective Reinforcing One objective directly creates conditions that lead to the achievement of another objective Indivisible One objective is inextricably linked to the achievement of another objective
  11. 11. 11 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 L1 L2 L3 L4 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 W1 +2 -1/0 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +2 -1/+2 W2 +2 -1 -1 +3 -1/+2 +3 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 +1 -1 -1/+2 -1/+2 +2 -1/+2 -1/+1 +1 W3 +3 +2 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +2 +3 +3 W4 +1 +3 +2 +2 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +2 +1 W5 -1/+1 -1/+1 0/+1 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0/+1 +3 W6 +1 +3 +2 +3 -1/+1 +1 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +1 +1 0/+1 +3 E1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 +3 +1 -1 -1 -3 -3 +2 -2 +1 -1 -1/+2 -1/0 -2 -2 E2 +3 -1/+2 -1 -1 E3 +3 +1 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 +1 +1 -1/+1 +1 +1 -1/0 +2 -2 E4 +3 +2 -1 E5 -3 -2 -1 -2/+2 +3 +1 +1 -1 +2 -1 -1 +1 E6 +3 +2 -1 E7 +1 0/+2 0/+2 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 +3 +1 +2 +2 +1 +3 +3 +1 +3 E8 +1 +1 +2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 +3 -1 +1 +2 +2 +3 +3 +1 +2 E9 +1 +1 -1 -1 +2 0/+1 +2 -1/+1 E10 0/+1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 +1 0/+1 0/+1 0/+2 -2 -1 -1 L1 +3 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 L2 +3 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 L3 +1 +2 +1 +2 -1 +1 -1/+1 +1 +2 -1/+2 +1 +1 +3 +3 +2 L4 +1 +1 0/+1 +1 +1 -2 +1 +1 0/+1 0/+1 +1 +2 +3 -1 -1 +2 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 F1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 -1/0 -1/0 +2 +2 +2 +2 -1/+1 +1 +1 -1/+1 +1 0/+1 +1 +1 F2 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 -1/+1 -1 -1 -1/0 -1/0 +2 -1 +1 +2 -1 +1 -1 -1 F3 +3 +3 +1 +2 -2 -2 -1/0 -1/0 +3 +3 +2 +2 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +1 +2 +2 F4 -1/+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 -1/+1 0/+1 0/+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 F5 +1 +3 +2 0/+1 +3 +3 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 0/+1 +3 +1 0/+1 F6 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 -1 -1 +2 +2 +1 +1 F7 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +1 +1 +2 -2/+2 -2 -1/+1 -1 +2 +1 +3 +1 C1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 -1 -1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +3 +3 C2 -1 +3 +3 +2 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +2 C3 -1/+1 -1/+1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +2 +1 +2 +3 +3 +3 +3 C4 -2 -2 -1 0/+1 0/+1 -2 +3 +3 C5 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 -1/+1 0/+1 +1 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +3 +1 +1 +3 +1 C6 +1 +2 -1/+1 -1/+1 +3 +3 0/+1 +1 -2/+2 +3 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +1 0/+1 +1 Screening matrix What happens to objective x → (affected) If we make progress on objective y ↓(affecting)
  12. 12. 12 Mostly coherence between water and land- energy-food-climate policies • Water > Land – Energy- Food – Climate • Land – Energy – Food - Climate > Water • Important in what context and how objectives are reached. Total Positive Negative Pos. or neg. 64 43 0 21 Total Positive Negative Pos. or neg. 87 65 10 12
  13. 13. 13 Rationale for SIM4NEXUS • Improving resource efficiency requires exploitation of synergies and mitigation of trade-offs across water, energy, food, climate and land. Implementations needs the active participation among government, the private sector, academia and civil society • A Serious Game is developed to learn from modelling tools, using impact assessment approaches and expert knowledge. On top of it, a user will benefit from the knowledge of practitioners who play the game. We develop the game through 12 cases across Europe. The case use transdisciplinary approaches to adequately address the Nexus, driven by stakeholder needs
  14. 14. What can be the role of biomass in the Dutch transition to a low-carbon economy by 2050? Is it possible to enlarge energy self-supply, by widening the use of renewable energy sources in Latvia ? How to achieve both the transition to low-carbon economy and the sustainable management of water resources in the Rhine region ? How the governance of energy, water and agriculture effects sustainable food production, the provision of water and wastewater services and the move to a smart and flexible system for resource management ? How can agricultural and environmental policies be integrated to address pressures on land and water whilst promoting their sustainable use and economic development? How to reach a resilient system able to satisfy all demands under climate change? Does the goal of becoming a fossil-free nation interferes with some of the national environmental objectives such as sustainable development of water and forest resources ? Does the landscape structure dominated by monoculture-like crop areas in some of the lower parts and its alterations by energy production affect the water cycle in an unfavorable way? What are the Nexus issues at the global scale ? What are the impacts of a transition to a low-carbon economy in Europe on the five elements of the Nexus ? What are the implications of Azerbaijan’s transition to a low-carbon economy on the different Nexus domains ? How national policies in water management, renewable power production and land, affect each other and result in changes in food production, tourism, GHG emissions, quantity & quality of water resources ? Main question addressed by the 12 SIM4Nexus case studies
  15. 15. 15 Topics addressed on modelling the Nexus • Modelling the Nexus of water-energy-food-land- climate (examples on water-food linkages) • Nexus challenges for specific cases, both in the middle-of-the road scenario (i.e. SSP2 scenario) and in the 2 degree scenario. • Serious Gaming, learning and Nexus-compliant practices
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17. 17 CAPRI – core characteristics • Keywords: PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM, GLOBAL, COMPARATIVE STATIC, EX- ANTE • Detailed coverage of primary and (some) secondary commodities, full representation of the agricultural sector • Heterogeneous regional representation (modular): • Global spatial trade model on the demand side • Regionalized optimization models on the supply side (i.e. EU-28, Norway, Turkey and Western Balkans at Nuts 2 level) • Farm type and 1x1 km downscaling components for EU-28 • Rather unique combination of spatial global trade model with regional programming models based on sequential calibration
  18. 18. CAPRI Global Agri-Food Modelling System
  19. 19. 19 Core data sources  EUROSTAT: market balances, acreages, herd sizes, yields, slaughtering statistics, Economic Accounts for Agriculture, household surveys, macro-econ indicators, regional agricultural and land use statistics, farm structure survey,...  FAOSTAT: supply utilization accounts, trade matrices  FADN: yields for farm types  DG-AGRI and others: policy definition (CAP, WTO commitments, FTAs, Import tariffs, NTMs)  IPCC, EEA: GHG emission accounting
  20. 20. Scenario definition  CAPRI is a comparative static model o Scenarios are compared against the baseline (reference scenario) in the simulation year o The model provides simulated results both at the global level ( 40 trade blocks) and at the regional level within Europe ( 280 NUTS-2 regions)  The baseline provides a reference or business as usual scenario for ex-ante assessment o Consistent view on the likely evolution of global agricultural markets over some future time horizon  Simulation scenarios include policy scenarios (agricultural, trade and environmental policies), climate change,...
  21. 21. CAPRI-WATER version  Focus on agricultural water: irrigation and livestock water use  Crop production activities in the supply module of CAPRI are differentiated into non-irrigable and irrigable activities o Irrigable activities are split into a rainfed and irrigated variant o Input-output coefficients for rainfed/irrigated variants are defined such as to match the corresponding aggregate activity  Constraints on irrigable land and agricultural water use are accounted for
  22. 22. CAPRI water  Scenario W1: an increase in water price of 0.05 €/m3 of irrigation water.  Scenario W2: water price as in the scenario W1 and 0.1% annual increase in irrigation efficiency for both water application efficiency and water transport efficiency. Analysing the water-food nexus Irrigation water use at the subnational level within the EU under different scenarios (% change from baseline) Source: https://doi.org/10.2791/319578
  23. 23. Impacts of water pricing  Profitability of irrigated crops will go down, because of an increase in production costs. Prices of agricultural products will increase because of higher production costs.  Irrigated area of cereals and oilseed will go down and rainfed area for crops will increase.  Increase in irrigation efficiency will mitigate the impact of water pricing, reducing the decline in irrigated area and total water use will reduce as well. 23
  24. 24. CAPRI water Analysing the climate-water-food nexus Irrigation share by Member State under different scenarios (percentage of utilised agricultural area) Source: https://doi.org/10.2791/319578  CC: RCP 8.5, no other change from the baseline.  CCLessW: RCP8.5, 30% decrease in irrigation water availability.  CCIrrEff: RCP 8.5, 30% decrease in irrigation water availability and annual irrigation efficiency increase of 0.1% in both water application and water transport.
  25. 25. 25
  26. 26. The path of the reference scenario with regards to SDGs 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 GDP per capita GDP growth expected in all regions of the world, peaking at +33% in Africa -2 3 8 13 18 Food production -2 3 8 13 18 Calories p.c./day -2 8 18 28 38 48 58 68 Food imports -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 CO2 emissions Examples of projected developments between 2015 and 2030 2015 - 2030 % change European Union North America South &Central America Africa Rest of World Food production (value) stagnates in the EU and North America, while it grows by 14% in Africa Food intake nearly stabilises in the EU and North America, while it keeps growing in other regions Increasing trade openness worldwide, associated with more dependence on food imports in Africa Substantial CO2 emission reductions expected in the EU28 (-26%) and the ROW region Source: MAGNET model, JRC 2017, forthcoming study
  27. 27. 27 Climate change and mitigation impacts on total global agricultural production by 2050
  28. 28. Impacts of climate change on agricultural production • Impacts are negative but small. • A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2°C target are put in place. • To reduce negative impact on agricultural production and food security compensation policies are needed (e.g. higher yields (R&D), less waste, diet shifts away from red meat, income redistribution)
  29. 29. 29 Try out scenarios 3 at regional level, 5 at national level, 2 transboundary, for local stakeholders 1 at European level for policy makers and educational purposes 1 at Global level for educational purposes The virtual world is designed according to realistic metadata Each player manages own objectives and indicators, and can only take specific actions (applying policies) according to the role assigned GeoPlatform, gathering all metadata Settings Case studies The game involves players, acting according to chosen roles The Serious Game concept
  30. 30. 30 … Evaluation by players Actions by players Uncertainty, like financial crisis, flood, temperature changes, etc. Thematic models + SDM, calculating interlinkages between each Nexus component LEARNING BY PLAYING All Nexus components interacting together. Water, land, energy, food, climate Description of a scenario
  31. 31. 31 Serious Game Graphical User Interface (SGGUI) Choose Case Study View SDM Result per Sector View Game Goal Performance View Regional Overview Choose Policies Simulate next time interval View Regional Details: SDM Result Tree
  32. 32. 32 SGGUI information flow Policy windows for actions (2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050) Game over (Show evaluation) Select one or many game goalsNo Choose region Choose policy means based on region Cannot implement policy means Are all constraints met? Policy means implemented No Yes Has end turn? No Yes Has game goals attained? Show goals attained event Yes Show events from previous policy means No Are all game goals achieved? Yes No Has game reached end of 2050? Yes START END
  33. 33. 33 Modelling supports sustainable policy making • The Nexus is about avoiding problem shifting – both between Nexus components and geographically • Modelling can help to identify unintended consequences • Quantifying Nexus impacts can allow an assessment of trade-offs • Sustainable development requires integrated analysis across the Nexus
  34. 34. Increase the flexibility of the river system through adaptive co-design and implementation 34
  35. 35. 35
  36. 36. For further information please consult www.sim4nexus.eu, follow us at @SIM4NEXUS Thanks for your attention! floor.brouwer@wur.nl

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