1. Water-food interlinkages
and the Nexus
University of Exeter
(UNEXE)
Floor Brouwer
Wageningen Economic Research
Exeter, 23/02/2018

2. 2
Sustainable Integrated Management FOR the Nexus
of water-land-food-energy-climate for a resource-
efficient Europe
• Target at a resource-efficient Europe
• Nexus-compliant practices regarding water-land-
food-energy-climate
• Focus on the sustainable & integrated management
of resources

3. 3
Resource-efficient Europe
• Increase economic output produced per unit of input
(e.g. water, land, energy)
• The Jevons paradox (1865) says that improvements in
resource efficiency cause a decline in resource prices,
increasing affordability and hence cause an incentive to
increase resource use (rebound effect)
• Direct rebound effect might be 20%. In such case, a 10%
increase in resource efficiency would result in an 8%
reduction of resource use only. Twenty percent of the
savings will be offset by changes in consumer’s and
producer’s behaviour

4. 4
Pyramid in a circular economy
Reduce
Re-use
Recycle

5. 5
Nexus of water-land-food-energy-climate
• Interdependence of using natural resources (energy, food,
water, land)
• Identifying trade-offs is essential, but exploring synergies in
using natural resources efficiently is important – focus at
coherence of public policies and private sector measures
• Governance by policy, business and NGOs
• SIM4NEXUS will work in a transdisciplinary way on a
challenge that is defined with local stakeholders from
policy, business and civil society organisations

6. 6
Policy Linkages
• The Nexus touches on many different policy areas
Circular economy
Bio-based economy
Low-carbon economy
Social welfare
Resource efficiency
Access to clean water
International development

7. 7
Policy coherence – manage resources
sustainably
• Definition: Systematic effort to reduce conflicts and
promote synergies and cooperation within and across
individual policy areas at different administrative and spatial
scales
• Two perspectives:
Policy content Policy process
What? How?
Cases

8. 8
Analysis EU Water – Land – Energy – Food - Climate policies

9. 9
Selection of 33 EU
WLEFC objectives
Criteria:
• Relevance of the
objectives to the
project and cases
• Potential of the
objectives to have a
high number of
interactions
• Unambiguous and
clear definition
• Also looked at policy
instruments
EU WATER POLICY
W1 Achieve good water quality status
W2
Ensure sufficient supply of good quality surface water and groundwater for people’s needs, the economy and
the environment
W3 Increase water efficiency
W4 Reduce water consumption
W5 Assess and manage flood risk and mitigate flood effects
W6 Address and mitigate water scarcity and drought
EU ENERGY POLICY
E1 Increase production of biofuel
E2 Increase consumption of biofuel
E3 Increase production of energy from biomass (excluding biofuel)
E4 Increase consumption of energy from biomass (excluding biofuel)
E5 Increase hydro-energy production
E6 Increase hydro-energy consumption
E7 Increase energy efficiency
E8 Reduce energy consumption
E9 Push forward important energy infrastructure projects (grid, network, interconnectors, etc.)
E10 Achieve energy supply security
EU LAND USE POLICY
L1 Restoring degraded soils to a level of functionality consistent with at least current and intended use
L2 Prevent soil degradation
L3 Maintain and enhance forest cover
L4 Prevent indirect land use change from nature to productive use
EU FOOD AND AGRICULTURE POLICY
F1 Contribute to farm incomes (if farmers respect rules on environment, land management, soil protection, water
management, food safety, animal health and welfare - ‘cross-compliance’)
F2 Improve competitiveness of agricultural sector (including sector-specific support and international trade issues)
F3 Ensure provision of environmental public goods in the agriculture sector
F4 Support rural areas economy (employment, social fabric, local markets, diverse farming systems)
F5 Promote resource efficiency in the agriculture, food and forestry sectors
F6 Reduce and prevent food waste
F7 Reduce intake of animal protein in human diet (non-binding objective; expressed intention on a research phase)
EU CLIMATE POLICY
C1 Reduce GHGs emissions to keep global temperature increase within 2 degrees
C2 Increase efficiency of the transport system
C3 Support the development and uptake of low-carbon technology
C4 Support the development and uptake of safe CCS technology
C5 Incentivize more climate-friendly land use
C6 Promote adaptation in key vulnerable EU sectors and in MSs

10. 10
Coherence analysis
Typology of bilateral interactions (Nilsson et al., 2016)
Cancelling
Progress in one objective makes it impossible to reach another objective and possibly leads to a
deteriorating state of the second. A choice has to be made between the two
Counteracting The pursuit of one objective counteract another objective
Constraining The pursuit of one objective sets a condition or a constraint one the achievement of another objective
Consistent There is no significant interaction between two objectives
Enabling The pursuit of one objective enables the achievement of another objective
Reinforcing One objective directly creates conditions that lead to the achievement of another objective
Indivisible One objective is inextricably linked to the achievement of another objective

11. 11
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 L1 L2 L3 L4 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6
W1 +2 -1/0 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +2 -1/+2
W2 +2 -1 -1 +3 -1/+2 +3 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 +1 -1 -1/+2 -1/+2 +2 -1/+2 -1/+1 +1
W3 +3 +2 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +2 +3 +3
W4 +1 +3 +2 +2 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +2 +1
W5 -1/+1 -1/+1 0/+1 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0/+1 +3
W6 +1 +3 +2 +3 -1/+1 +1 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +1 +1 0/+1 +3
E1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 +3 +1 -1 -1 -3 -3 +2 -2 +1 -1 -1/+2 -1/0 -2 -2
E2 +3 -1/+2 -1 -1
E3 +3 +1 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 +1 +1 -1/+1 +1 +1 -1/0 +2 -2
E4 +3 +2 -1
E5 -3 -2 -1 -2/+2 +3 +1 +1 -1 +2 -1 -1 +1
E6 +3 +2 -1
E7 +1 0/+2 0/+2 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 +3 +1 +2 +2 +1 +3 +3 +1 +3
E8 +1 +1 +2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 +3 -1 +1 +2 +2 +3 +3 +1 +2
E9 +1 +1 -1 -1 +2 0/+1 +2 -1/+1
E10 0/+1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 +1 0/+1 0/+1 0/+2 -2 -1 -1
L1 +3 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2
L2 +3 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2
L3 +1 +2 +1 +2 -1 +1 -1/+1 +1 +2 -1/+2 +1 +1 +3 +3 +2
L4 +1 +1 0/+1 +1 +1 -2 +1 +1 0/+1 0/+1 +1 +2 +3 -1 -1 +2 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1
F1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 -1/0 -1/0 +2 +2 +2 +2 -1/+1 +1 +1 -1/+1 +1 0/+1 +1 +1
F2 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 -1/+1 -1 -1 -1/0 -1/0 +2 -1 +1 +2 -1 +1 -1 -1
F3 +3 +3 +1 +2 -2 -2 -1/0 -1/0 +3 +3 +2 +2 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +1 +2 +2
F4 -1/+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 -1/+1 0/+1 0/+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1
F5 +1 +3 +2 0/+1 +3 +3 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 0/+1 +3 +1 0/+1
F6 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 -1 -1 +2 +2 +1 +1
F7 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +1 +1 +2 -2/+2 -2 -1/+1 -1 +2 +1 +3 +1
C1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 -1 -1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +3 +3
C2 -1 +3 +3 +2 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +2
C3 -1/+1 -1/+1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +2 +1 +2 +3 +3 +3 +3
C4 -2 -2 -1 0/+1 0/+1 -2 +3 +3
C5 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 -1/+1 0/+1 +1 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +3 +1 +1 +3 +1
C6 +1 +2 -1/+1 -1/+1 +3 +3 0/+1 +1 -2/+2 +3 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +1 0/+1 +1
Screening matrix
What happens to objective x → (affected)
If we make progress on objective y ↓(affecting)

12. 12
Mostly coherence between water and land-
energy-food-climate policies
• Water > Land – Energy- Food – Climate
• Land – Energy – Food - Climate > Water
• Important in what context and how objectives are
reached.
Total Positive Negative Pos. or neg.
64 43 0 21
Total Positive Negative Pos. or neg.
87 65 10 12

13. 13
Rationale for SIM4NEXUS
• Improving resource efficiency requires exploitation of
synergies and mitigation of trade-offs across water,
energy, food, climate and land. Implementations needs
the active participation among government, the private
sector, academia and civil society
• A Serious Game is developed to learn from modelling
tools, using impact assessment approaches and expert
knowledge. On top of it, a user will benefit from the
knowledge of practitioners who play the game. We
develop the game through 12 cases across Europe. The
case use transdisciplinary approaches to adequately
address the Nexus, driven by stakeholder needs

14. What can be the
role of biomass
in the Dutch
transition to a
low-carbon
economy by
2050?
Is it possible to enlarge
energy self-supply, by
widening the use of
renewable energy sources
in Latvia ?
How to achieve both the
transition to low-carbon
economy and the
sustainable management
of water resources in the
Rhine region ?
How the governance of
energy, water and agriculture
effects sustainable food
production, the provision of
water and wastewater
services and the move to a
smart and flexible system for
resource management ?
How can agricultural and
environmental policies be
integrated to address
pressures on land and water
whilst promoting their
sustainable use and
economic development?
How to reach a resilient
system able to satisfy all
demands under climate
change?
Does the goal of becoming a
fossil-free nation interferes with
some of the national
environmental objectives such
as sustainable development of
water and forest resources ?
Does the landscape structure
dominated by monoculture-like
crop areas in some of the lower
parts and its alterations by
energy production affect the
water cycle in an unfavorable
way?
What are the
Nexus issues at
the global scale ?
What are the
impacts of a
transition to a
low-carbon
economy in
Europe on the five
elements of the
Nexus ?
What are the
implications of
Azerbaijan’s
transition to a
low-carbon
economy on the
different Nexus
domains ?
How national policies in water
management, renewable power
production and land, affect each
other and result in changes in food
production, tourism, GHG emissions,
quantity & quality of water
resources ?
Main question
addressed by the 12
SIM4Nexus case
studies

15. 15
Topics addressed on modelling the Nexus
• Modelling the Nexus of water-energy-food-land-
climate (examples on water-food linkages)
• Nexus challenges for specific cases, both in the
middle-of-the road scenario (i.e. SSP2 scenario)
and in the 2 degree scenario.
• Serious Gaming, learning and Nexus-compliant
practices

16. 16

17. 17
CAPRI – core characteristics
• Keywords: PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM, GLOBAL, COMPARATIVE STATIC, EX-
ANTE
• Detailed coverage of primary and (some) secondary commodities, full
representation of the agricultural sector
• Heterogeneous regional representation (modular):
• Global spatial trade model on the demand side
• Regionalized optimization models on the supply side (i.e. EU-28,
Norway, Turkey and Western Balkans at Nuts 2 level)
• Farm type and 1x1 km downscaling components for EU-28
• Rather unique combination of spatial global trade model with regional
programming models based on sequential calibration

18. CAPRI Global Agri-Food Modelling System

19. 19
Core data sources
 EUROSTAT: market balances, acreages, herd sizes, yields,
slaughtering statistics, Economic Accounts for Agriculture,
household surveys, macro-econ indicators, regional
agricultural and land use statistics, farm structure survey,...
 FAOSTAT: supply utilization accounts, trade matrices
 FADN: yields for farm types
 DG-AGRI and others: policy definition (CAP, WTO
commitments, FTAs, Import tariffs, NTMs)
 IPCC, EEA: GHG emission accounting

20. Scenario definition
 CAPRI is a comparative static model
o Scenarios are compared against the baseline (reference
scenario) in the simulation year
o The model provides simulated results both at the global
level ( 40 trade blocks) and at the regional level within
Europe ( 280 NUTS-2 regions)
 The baseline provides a reference or business as usual
scenario for ex-ante assessment
o Consistent view on the likely evolution of global
agricultural markets over some future time horizon
 Simulation scenarios include policy scenarios (agricultural,
trade and environmental policies), climate change,...

21. CAPRI-WATER version
 Focus on agricultural water: irrigation and livestock water
use
 Crop production activities in the supply module of CAPRI are
differentiated into non-irrigable and irrigable activities
o Irrigable activities are split into a rainfed and irrigated
variant
o Input-output coefficients for rainfed/irrigated variants
are defined such as to match the corresponding
aggregate activity
 Constraints on irrigable land and agricultural water use are
accounted for

22. CAPRI water
 Scenario W1: an
increase in water price
of 0.05 €/m3 of
irrigation water.
 Scenario W2: water
price as in the scenario
W1 and 0.1% annual
increase in irrigation
efficiency for both
water application
efficiency and water
transport efficiency.
Analysing the water-food nexus
Irrigation water use at the subnational level within the EU under
different scenarios (% change from baseline)
Source: https://doi.org/10.2791/319578

23. Impacts of water pricing
 Profitability of irrigated crops will go down, because of an
increase in production costs. Prices of agricultural
products will increase because of higher production costs.
 Irrigated area of cereals and oilseed will go down and
rainfed area for crops will increase.
 Increase in irrigation efficiency will mitigate the impact of
water pricing, reducing the decline in irrigated area and
total water use will reduce as well.
23

24. CAPRI water
Analysing the climate-water-food nexus
Irrigation share by Member State under different scenarios
(percentage of utilised agricultural area)
Source: https://doi.org/10.2791/319578
 CC: RCP 8.5, no other
change from the baseline.
 CCLessW: RCP8.5, 30%
decrease in irrigation
water availability.
 CCIrrEff: RCP 8.5, 30%
decrease in irrigation
water availability and
annual irrigation efficiency
increase of 0.1% in both
water application and
water transport.

25. 25

26. The path of the reference scenario with regards to SDGs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
GDP per capita
GDP growth expected
in all regions of the
world, peaking at
+33% in Africa
-2
3
8
13
18
Food production -2
3
8
13
18
Calories p.c./day
-2
8
18
28
38
48
58
68
Food imports
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
CO2 emissions
Examples of projected developments between 2015 and 2030
2015 - 2030 %
change
European Union
North America
South &Central
America
Africa
Rest of World
Food production
(value) stagnates in
the EU and North
America, while it
grows by 14% in Africa
Food intake nearly
stabilises in the EU
and North America,
while it keeps growing
in other regions
Increasing trade
openness worldwide,
associated with more
dependence on food
imports in Africa
Substantial CO2
emission reductions
expected in the EU28
(-26%) and the ROW
region
Source: MAGNET model, JRC 2017, forthcoming study

27. 27
Climate change and mitigation impacts on
total global agricultural production by 2050

28. Impacts of climate change on agricultural production
• Impacts are negative but small.
• A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most
pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed
when emission mitigation measures compliant with a
2°C target are put in place.
• To reduce negative impact on agricultural production
and food security compensation policies are needed
(e.g. higher yields (R&D), less waste, diet shifts away
from red meat, income redistribution)

29. 29
Try out scenarios
3 at regional level, 5 at national level, 2 transboundary, for local stakeholders
1 at European level for policy makers and educational purposes
1 at Global level for educational purposes
The virtual world is
designed according to
realistic metadata
Each player manages own objectives
and indicators, and can only take
specific actions (applying policies)
according to the role assigned
GeoPlatform,
gathering all
metadata
Settings
Case
studies
The game involves
players, acting according
to chosen roles
The Serious Game concept

30. 30
…
Evaluation by
players
Actions by
players
Uncertainty, like financial
crisis, flood, temperature
changes, etc.
Thematic models + SDM,
calculating interlinkages
between each Nexus
component
LEARNING BY PLAYING
All Nexus components
interacting together.
Water, land, energy, food, climate
Description of a scenario

31. 31
Serious Game Graphical User Interface (SGGUI)
Choose Case
Study
View SDM Result
per Sector
View Game
Goal
Performance
View Regional Overview
Choose Policies
Simulate next time
interval
View Regional Details:
SDM Result Tree

32. 32
SGGUI information flow
Policy windows
for actions (2010,
2020, 2030,
2040, 2050)
Game over
(Show evaluation)
Select one or
many game goalsNo
Choose region
Choose policy
means based on
region
Cannot
implement policy
means
Are all
constraints
met?
Policy means
implemented
No
Yes
Has end
turn?
No
Yes
Has game
goals
attained?
Show goals
attained event
Yes
Show events from
previous policy
means
No
Are all
game
goals
achieved?
Yes
No
Has game
reached end
of 2050?
Yes
START
END

33. 33
Modelling supports sustainable policy making
• The Nexus is about avoiding problem shifting – both
between Nexus components and geographically
• Modelling can help to identify unintended consequences
• Quantifying Nexus impacts can allow an assessment of
trade-offs
• Sustainable development requires integrated analysis
across the Nexus

34. Increase the flexibility of the river system
through adaptive co-design and implementation
34

35. 35

36. For further information please consult
www.sim4nexus.eu,
follow us at @SIM4NEXUS
Thanks for your attention!
floor.brouwer@wur.nl