This seminar was conducted on July 2, 2012 by Professor John Preston. Abstract: There are concerns that Britain’s ageing infrastructure will become increasingly inadequate in the 21st century, that this will impact on future economic and environmental performance and insufficient attention is being paid to this issue. This presentation outlines some of the work of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC), a five year research programme that began in January 2011, led by the University of Oxford and including six other Universities and over 40 stakeholders from British Government and Industry.

1. Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC)
www.itrc.org.uk
The Long Term Dynamics of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: The
Emerging Evidence from Britain.
John Preston.
Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering and Science,
University of Southampton.
Presentation to SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, 2 July
2012.

2. Outline
• Infrastructure in the UK
• Background to the Infrastructure Transitions
Research Consortium (ITRC)
• ITRC Fast Track Analysis (FTA) and Progress
• Transport FTA
• Transport Capacity Demand and Assessment Model
(CDAM)
• Conclusions

3. Infrastructure in the UK
Modest International Performance in terms of
Infrastructure Quality
•World Economic Forum 2011 28th (up from 33rd in
2010).
•World Bank 2010 16th (down from 10th in 2007).
Concern that this impacts on economic performance.

4. Infrastructure in the UK
Concerns about under investment

5. Infrastructure in the UK

6. Infrastructure UK
Performance may be increasing but so are costs.

7. ITRC Motivation
“The stakes are high. Failure to develop and
implement a vision for our infrastructure will
mean the UK falls behinds its competitors,
loses out both economically and socially, and
could miss its carbon reduction targets”
“The Government has identified £200 billion
of public and private infrastructure planned
over the next five years, and the requirement
is likely to grow beyond that to provide the
power, communications and transport links
to underpin a modern, low carbon economy.”
“Britain will not be able to compete in the
modern world unless we improve our
infrastructure.”

8. ITRC Aim and Ambition
Aim: To develop and demonstrate a new generation of
simulation models and tools to inform the analysis, planning and
design of national infrastructure
Ambition: Enabling a revolution
in the strategic analysis of NI
provision in the UK…
whilst at the same time becoming
an international landmark
programme recognised for
novelty, research excellence and
impact.

9. Research questions
• How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced
in an uncertain future?
• What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we
adapt National Infrastructure to make it more resilient?
• How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with
society and the economy?
• What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision
of NI in the long term?
9

10. ITRC Project Structure

11. Consortium
Lead Universities Partnership
• Cardiff University Over 40 partners in industry and
• University of Leeds government:
• University of Southampton • Contractors
• Newcastle University • Engineering & multi-disciplinary
• University of Oxford consultants
• Engineering institutions
• University of Sussex
• Government departments, agencies
• University of Cambridge
& local authorities
Support
• Insurers
• Engineering and Physical Science
• NGOs
Research Council Programme Grant
£4.7 million (2011-2015). • Utility companies
• University contributions £1 million On-going collaboration and
• Industry contributions £1.6 million dissemination arrangements

12. Key Personnel
• Jim Hall (Oxford) – PI and Leader WS2
• Nick Eyre (Oxford) – Leader WS1
• Seth Bullock (Southampton) – Leader WS3
• Stuart Barr (Newcastle) – Leader WS4
• Rob Nicholls (Southampton) – Leader WS5
• Nick Jenkins (Cardiff) – Energy
• Chris Kilsby (Newcastle) – Water
• William Powrie (Southampton) – Waste
• Cliff Jones (Newcastle) – ICT
• John Preston (Southampton) - Transport

13. International Collaborations
• Gary Bowditch, University of Wollongong.
• Theresa Brown, Sandia National Laboratories.
• Yacov Haimes, University of Virginia.
• Stephane Hallegate, World Bank.
• Geoffrey Hewings, University of Illinois.
• Margot Weijnen, TU Delft.

14. The ITRC Fast Track Analysis
Objectives:
2.Ensure that the ITRC research
programme is building upon existing
knowledge.
3.Refine the scope of the ITRC
research.
4.Pilot and communicate new
analysis concepts.
5.Strengthen the relationship
between the research team and the
consortium’s partners in government
and industry.

15. Overview of the FTA Methodology
Figure 1
15

16. Developing Scenarios: Drivers of Change Scenarios
Population
HIGH
Primary drivers of change growth
•Demographic change
•Energy prices LO
W
LO W
•Economic growth
Secondary drivers
•Climate change HIG
H
•Carbon emission targets
GH Economic
•EU directives and National HI growth
Energy
standards costs
•Others
LOW
Figure 2
16

17. Developing Scenarios Scenarios
Low Growth
•Population
•GDP growth: 1.6%
•Energy costs: DECC high*
Medium growth
•Population
•GDP growth: 2.3%
•Energy costs: DECC central* Figure 3
High Growth
•Population
•GDP growth: 3.0%
•Energy costs: DECC low*
assumptions of fossil fuel price
*
17

18. Transition Strategies: Dimensions Strategies
Capacity- High investment in new
intensive capacity to keep up with
demand and maintain
good security of supply
(except transport)
Decentralisation Reorientation to more
distributed systems
involving a combination of
supply and demand-side
measures
Capacity- Emphasis on demand
constrained management measures,
low infrastructure
investment Figure 5
18

19. Progress: Systems modelling framework

20. Progress: Analysis of risks of infrastructure failure
First steps: spatial integration
of natural hazards and
infrastructure exposure.

21. ITRC risk analysis framework
NI network and NI risk
extreme events NI vulnerability evaluation Resilience
evaluation options
Interdependent networks
Economic loss
1 2
Interdependent
1 2 3 4
NI
propagation
NI
1 2
1
2
3 Output loss Interdependent
4 3
Cost
4 loss
4 3
Net Benefit
Extreme climate hazard
Performance
Cost
Event
Time
Economic loss
Frequency
Probability
Load Service
level
Uncertain & temporal Resource
Event
Failure management
Time
21

22. Progress: National Infrastructure Database
ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC
Admin Population Economics Water Energy Transport Waste
ITRC spatial database
comprises of 160+ layers
organised into separate
databases by sector but with
single interface via ITRC
scripts. ITRC
Scripts

23. Transport FTA - Key Issues
• Vehicle and fuel technology (EU legislation) and its
impact on energy requirements
• Taxation and charging (tax on electric vehicles?)
• Infrastructure investment
• ITS (Intelligent Transport Systems) / speed limits
• Personal / corporate behaviour
• Main scenario drivers assumed: GDP, fuel price,
population

24. Transport Modal Split and Vehicle Split
Strategies
Source: DECC, 2011.
Also:
http://www.toscaproject.org/tosca.html

25. Transport FTA Modelling - Methodology
• Unconstrained demand based on elasticity models
• Supply side constraints reduce demand (Excel, Matlab)
• Three demand growth scenarios (low, medium, high)
8,000
7,000 road
rail
6,000 air
total
Constrained
billion passenger km
5,000 demand,
4,000 medium
3,000 growth
2,000
1,000
0
2008 2023 2038 2053 2068 2083 2098

26. FTA Vehicle Kms per Lane Km
Capacity utilisation of trunk road network
25
Implies
Million vehicle km per lane km
20 Constrained high growth
Constrained medium growth
base
15
provision of
Constrained low growth
388
vehicles per
10 lane per
hour
5
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

27. FTA Impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs)

28. Rail demand per track km
120
train km / track km (thousand kms / track km)
high growth (constrained) Base year
provision is
medium growth (constrained) around 1.77
80
trains per hour
low growth (constrained)
per track km.
40
Crossrail HS2 HS2+
0
2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078

29. FTA Key Results
• Low growth scenarios seem most consistent with previous trends.
• Capacity Intensive: High investment and fast uptake of electric vehicles
– 23.4% more car/van kms in 2050 compared to the reference case
– 18.9% fewer emissions from cars and vans
– 25.2% fewer emissions from HGVs
• Decentralisation: Medium investment/medium uptake of EVs, national
congestion charging
– 5% more car/van vehicle kms
– 10.7% lower CO2 emissions
• Capacity constrained: Low investment, low uptake of EVs, national
congestion charging
– 3% fewer car/van kms
– 7.3% lower CO2 emissions for car/vans
– 2.4% lower CO2 emissions for HGVs

30. FTA Key Results

31. Transport CDAM: Initial Structure

32. Transport Models Gap Analysis
Key areas identified:
•Temporal scale – ITRC model extends to 2100
•Spatial scale – Transport CDAM zonal system coarser
than NTM
•Strategic interaction between passengers and freight
•Strategic multimodal treatment of demand and
capacity
•Interaction with other economic sectors
•Explicit integration of national gateway nodes

33. Transport Models Gap Analysis
• Transport CDAM is intended to complement rather
than compete with existing models.
• Limited project resources and short(ish) timescale –
use existing data wherever possible.
• Spatial resolution at a level consistent with other
ITRC CDAMs (Energy, Water, Solid Waste,
Wastewater). Strategic modelling with a focus on
flows within and between Local Authorities (144
zones).

34. Transport CDAM Current Status
• Development of model based on open source data
from range of sources:
– DfT AADF data
– DfT road statistics
– ATOC rail timetable data
– ORR station usage data
– CAA air statistics
– DfT maritime statistics

35. Transport CDAM: Current Status

36. Transport CDAM: Current Status
• Standalone road model developed.
• Models for air, rail and sea under
development.
• Aim is for an integrated multi-modal
model that is capable of rapid
simulations.

37. Transport CDAM: Current Status
• Extensive data collection
and processing
undertaken
• Initial road link model
now working
• Other model elements
being developed
• Three MSc students
working on model

38. Transport CDAM: Added Value
• Strategic analysis of scenarios, strategies and risks up
to 2100.
• Identification of key interdependencies both within
the transport sector (local & long distance, passenger
& freight, air, rail, road & sea) and between
infrastructure sectors (especially energy and ICT).
• Identification of key interdependencies with
demographic and economic factors.
• Identification of key pinch points.

39. Conclusions
• UK faces an infrastructure challenge over the next
century.
• Current approach on a sector by sector basis.
• A systematic multi-sectoral approach is needed.
• This needs simulation tools that can treat
infrastructure as a complex adaptive system (of
systems).
• ITRC aims to develop such tools for the UK, whilst
building on international experience.