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Natural Rubber(NR) Scenario
Topics
2
Global Rubber Production Distribution
Indian NR Scenario
Way Forward
Global NR Scenario
3
NR Production
4
34%
23%
10%
7%
5%
5%
16%
Global Production
Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Ivory Coast China India Others
Global Production:
126.8 L MT
Indian Production:
6.71 L MT
Indian Consumption:
10.38 L MT
India is a NR exporter of NR with
abundance in related industries.
Indian NR Scenario – Production, Consumption, Price Trend
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Apr-20May-20Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20Sep-20Oct-20Nov-20Dec-20Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21 Apr-21May-21Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21
Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
India Production(kt) 15 26 41 52 59 63 75 87 96 92 63 46 40 37 50 60 67 71 62
India Consumption(kt) 5 52 84 96 94 103 107 4 114 113 107 117 110 90 101 115 108 106 103
RSS4 Grade(₹/kg) 116 120 127 132 134 142 156 158 152 156 167 167 169 169 168 177 174 171
Grade-wise composition
NR production NR consumption
6
Sheet
63.7%
Block
Rubber
20.7%
Latex
concentrate
s (drc)
12.7%
Others
2.9%
Sheet
42.9%
Block
Rubber
46.9%
Latex
concentrates
(drc)
7.8%
Others
2.4%
15th SCP - 1-11-2021
Indian NR Situation
7
All the above points point out to a revival in NR demand and constricted supply.
Indian Manufacturing sector expected moderate growth
With shortage in imports and shipment delays Indian tyre companies are moving to domestic NR and thereby driving up
prices.
Erratic climate continues like last year and supply disturbances are expected.
Way Forward
8
(GDP Growth
(yoy%)
Source: IMF; Growth % for India is on Fiscal year
basis
Source: OWID
COVID Outbreak impacted growth significantly in 2020 [@ (-)8%];
IMF projects India as one of the fastest growing economy in the next 3 quarters [@ 12.5%]
*Data represents consolidated figures for each month ; ** Data as on 7th
16.7%
1
India COVID Cases :28 Mn
World: 173 Mn
(As on 7th June’21)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
COVID Cases in India & its % to World
India as a % of World total Cases
Total COVID Cases India*
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Brazil China India Japan Russia South
Africa
Sri Lanka Thailand United
Kingdom
United
States
World
8.0
3.5
8.3
3.3
6.8
3.8
6.5
3.6
4.0
2.8
India has been one of the fastest growing large economies in the recent years
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
India’s population as
a % of World : 17.8%
(2019)
Period of Sharp
increase in COVID
Cases (Wave 1.0)
Period of Sharp/
Successive decline in
COVID Cases
Wave 2.0
Way Forward
COVID and its Impact on India’s NR sector & stakeholder value chain
Lesser
number of
tapping
days
Impact on
rain
guarding
Better
prices
Growers
&
Tappers Lesser
number of
trading days
Requiremen
t for better
stock
warehousin
g and
handling
Changed
credit
requirement
s
Dealers &
Processor
s
Impact on
manufacturi
ng due to
lockdown
Demand
revival from
Sept’20
Domestic
purchase of
NR
increased
by 37.5%
Tyre
Sector De-growth
in NR
consumptio
n
Rubber
goods sales
were
impacted
adversely
Indigenous
purchase of
NR
decreased
by 12.5%
Non-
Tyre
Sector
Uncertainty of COVID 3.0 prevails
10
Thank you
December 2020 Confidential 11

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Polymer - Natural Rubber - Industry Update

  • 2. Topics 2 Global Rubber Production Distribution Indian NR Scenario Way Forward
  • 4. NR Production 4 34% 23% 10% 7% 5% 5% 16% Global Production Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Ivory Coast China India Others Global Production: 126.8 L MT Indian Production: 6.71 L MT Indian Consumption: 10.38 L MT India is a NR exporter of NR with abundance in related industries.
  • 5. Indian NR Scenario – Production, Consumption, Price Trend 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Apr-20May-20Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20Sep-20Oct-20Nov-20Dec-20Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21 Apr-21May-21Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 India Production(kt) 15 26 41 52 59 63 75 87 96 92 63 46 40 37 50 60 67 71 62 India Consumption(kt) 5 52 84 96 94 103 107 4 114 113 107 117 110 90 101 115 108 106 103 RSS4 Grade(₹/kg) 116 120 127 132 134 142 156 158 152 156 167 167 169 169 168 177 174 171
  • 6. Grade-wise composition NR production NR consumption 6 Sheet 63.7% Block Rubber 20.7% Latex concentrate s (drc) 12.7% Others 2.9% Sheet 42.9% Block Rubber 46.9% Latex concentrates (drc) 7.8% Others 2.4% 15th SCP - 1-11-2021
  • 7. Indian NR Situation 7 All the above points point out to a revival in NR demand and constricted supply. Indian Manufacturing sector expected moderate growth With shortage in imports and shipment delays Indian tyre companies are moving to domestic NR and thereby driving up prices. Erratic climate continues like last year and supply disturbances are expected.
  • 9. (GDP Growth (yoy%) Source: IMF; Growth % for India is on Fiscal year basis Source: OWID COVID Outbreak impacted growth significantly in 2020 [@ (-)8%]; IMF projects India as one of the fastest growing economy in the next 3 quarters [@ 12.5%] *Data represents consolidated figures for each month ; ** Data as on 7th 16.7% 1 India COVID Cases :28 Mn World: 173 Mn (As on 7th June’21) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000 35000000 COVID Cases in India & its % to World India as a % of World total Cases Total COVID Cases India* -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Brazil China India Japan Russia South Africa Sri Lanka Thailand United Kingdom United States World 8.0 3.5 8.3 3.3 6.8 3.8 6.5 3.6 4.0 2.8 India has been one of the fastest growing large economies in the recent years 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 India’s population as a % of World : 17.8% (2019) Period of Sharp increase in COVID Cases (Wave 1.0) Period of Sharp/ Successive decline in COVID Cases Wave 2.0 Way Forward
  • 10. COVID and its Impact on India’s NR sector & stakeholder value chain Lesser number of tapping days Impact on rain guarding Better prices Growers & Tappers Lesser number of trading days Requiremen t for better stock warehousin g and handling Changed credit requirement s Dealers & Processor s Impact on manufacturi ng due to lockdown Demand revival from Sept’20 Domestic purchase of NR increased by 37.5% Tyre Sector De-growth in NR consumptio n Rubber goods sales were impacted adversely Indigenous purchase of NR decreased by 12.5% Non- Tyre Sector Uncertainty of COVID 3.0 prevails 10
  • 11. Thank you December 2020 Confidential 11