This presentation was made as a scene setting presentation during the Asean Foresight Alliance 2021 session. It highlights the use of foresight & futures thinking to help organizations to navigate post pandemic futures.

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RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM
rushdi@might.org.my @RushdiAR
FORESIGHT FOR POST PANDEMIC FUTURES

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We are limited,
not by our abilities,
but by our vision
Khalil Gibran
2
“

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a changed world
volatility . uncertainty . complexity . ambiguity
speed & turbulence
of change
less
predictable
systemic
independencies
multitude of
options
3

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Global Leadership? Brexit Finally
Year of Protest UFO is Real? Climate Catasprophes
Change of Government
SINCE THEN
4

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Contact Tracing Movement Control
Economic Strain Mental Health New Behaviour
Healthcare Strain
DISTRUPTION
6

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“ The world is in turmoil. Economies are in
freefall. We have been brought to our knees – by
a microscopic virus. The pandemic has
demonstrated the fragility of our world... COVID-
19 has been likened to an x-ray, revealing
fractures in the fragile skeleton of the societies
we have built. It is exposing fallacies and
falsehoods everywhere: the lie that free
markets can deliver healthcare for all; the
fiction that unpaid care work is not work; the
delusion that we live in a post-racist world; the
myth that we are all in the same boat. Because
while we are all floating on the same sea, it’s
clear that some are in superyachts while others
are clinging to drifting debris
António Guterres

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making sense of a VUCA world
through FORESIGHT

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Skill 1 : Futures Literacy
Skill 2 : Systems Thinking
Skill 3 : Anticipation
Skill 4 : Strategic Foresight
9

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“Foresight: A luxury the
developing world cannot afford?
…It is not so much about capacity
development but about how
capacity is developed.
Dr Susann Roth

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“We can’t go back to normal,
because the normal that we had
was precisely the problem
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

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Trends that will define post pandemic futures
Adopted from: MIGHT/Lux Research
Infection
Control
Improve
Resiliency
Remote Work &
Commerce
Better
Agility
Macroeconomics
Impact
Practice of hygiene,
sanitation & testing
that continues past
the crisis
Not bound to
geographical
location to conduct
business &
commerce
Increase local self
reliance & rethinking
supply chain
Policies, practices,
technology &
processes that
enable flexibility &
adaptability
Impacts of different
scenarios on
macroeconomic
outcomes
12

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ECONOMIC RECOVERY
13
#NewIndustrialStrategy
ADOPTING TO A NEW NORMAL
PANDEMIC
CONTAINMENT
Prompt
Sluggish
Manageable
Ineffective
Compliant
Dissension
The new normal will be depending on the
following drivers of change:-
• Health - Pandemic containment
• Economic – Economic recovery
• Society - Societal behaviour

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ECONOMIC RECOVERY
14
#NewIndustrialStrategy
ADOPTING TO A NEW NORMAL
PANDEMIC
CONTAINMENT
Prompt
Sluggish
Manageable
Ineffective
Compliant
Dissension
Assumptions
• Covid-19 vaccine widely available
starting in Q2 2021; economic activity
gradually returns to “normal” over the
course of the year
• Successful vaccine roll-out &
implementation nationally & globally as
well as effectiveness of the vaccine
• No subsequent wave of infections that
leads to the kinds of widespread
lockdowns
• Continuing government stimulus to
sustain consumer spending power and
business liquidity

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WHAT WOULD YOUR WORLD LOOK LIKE UNDER THESE SCENARIOS?
PROMPT economic recovery
MANAGEABLE pandemic containment
COMPLIANT society
PROMPT Economic Recovery
INEFFECTIVE Pandemic Containment
DISSENSION society
SLUGGISH economic recovery
INEFFECTIVE pandemic containment
DISSENSION society
SLUGGISH economic recovery
MANAGEABLE pandemic containment
COMPLIANT society

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ADOPTING TO A NEW NORMAL
Things we do
immediately to respond
specifically to the crisis
Things we do and try
that is continued even in
post crisis
Things we stopped during
the crisis but requires to
be picked up again
Things we stopped during
the crisis & already not
suitable for the future
DISCONTINUE NEW
DISCONTINUE
NEW
NEW PRACTICE
OLD PRACTICE

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Intrigue by the Pandemic outbreak,
KISAH Futures competition is meant to tap
into the young people's imagination as to what
are their concerns, aspirations and how they
foresee Malaysia going to be post COVID-19.
This competition is a join partnership between
MIGHT, UNDP Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei
Darussalam, University Malaya and ThinkCity.
WHAT IS
KISAH FUTURES?
17

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COMMON THEMES FROM KISAH FUTURES
Social cohesion Community wellbeing
Future of work Urban design

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COMMON THEMES FROM KISAH FUTURES
SHARED FEARS
Rise of mental illness
Continuous economic crisis
Poverty & dependence
Food security
The rise of individualistic society
“Big Brother”
SHARED ASPIRATIONS
Digital inclusion
Communities' empowerment
Livable cities & environment

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THINGS TO WATCH FOR
Lockdown Baby Bust Borders Closure
“Bubble” Generation Pandemic Normal New “Strategic” Commodities
“Big Brother”

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THINGS TO WATCH FOR
Consumer Boom Rapid Digitalization
Electrification New Urban Design Education Delivery
Work from Anywhere

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FROM SCENARIOS TO STRATEGIES & ACTION
if the scenario
materialized…
what should
we do?
prevent
disowned scenarios
pursue
desired scenarios

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time horizon
matters
23

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scoping the future

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understanding unintended
consequences
25

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capability to
anticipate
willingness to
act
vs

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RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM
rushdi@might.org.my @RushdiAR
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING